Sellers disconnected from reality

[sudo_root]

Given how massive of a gulf the trade value vs for sale value is not just here but even just clearly visible on Moda and other sources why are sellers still trying to prop up a falling market? It’d be wiser to cut losses and discount now then slowly bleed out like they’re doing.

[huncho]

guessing the big greys like david didn't have huge inventories of the same watches while the smaller/mid size youtube greys were hoarding every royal oak and 5711 they could find, so they're now dumping all of them to cut their losses

[AbeFroman]

Take a look at Producer Michael’s recent video with Wrist Aficionado.

It honestly seems a lot of these dealers don’t understand the implications of what’s going on elsewhere in the financial market. When Mike asked them, they couldn’t really provide a clear answer of what caused the current market correction and said they think prices have bottomed out. I’d imagine a good amount of them purchased inventory at or near peak pricing.

I personally think the rest of the year prices will continue to decline and remain heavily depressed. I think most are trying to avoid panic because once they start undercutting each other to shed inventory that’s when it snowballs.

[TunaTuna]

Originally Posted by sudo_root

Given how massive of a gulf the trade value vs for sale value is not just here but even just clearly visible on Moda and other sources why are sellers still trying to prop up a falling market? It’d be wiser to cut losses and discount now then slowly bleed out like they’re doing.

Because many of the watches for sale were purchased over the last six months. Dealers payed high prices for them, so they can't drop the prices too low and still make a profit.

The only desperate sellers are individuals that need to sell. Dealers don't need to sell. When they start buying at lower prices, then they can list them at those lower prices.

[SLWoodster]

Does it matter? Are you trying to buy something?

I want the secondary market to go back to what it was 5 years ago. Great place to get a deal. No need to market watch until then, it just adds to the whole hype.

[Chewbacca]

Originally Posted by sudo_root

Given how massive of a gulf the trade value vs for sale value is not just here but even just clearly visible on Moda and other sources why are sellers still trying to prop up a falling market? It’d be wiser to cut losses and discount now then slowly bleed out like they’re doing.

Nobody can say for certain but the sellers that are mostly 3+R (VC PP AP Rolex) have the cash flows and earnings to wait it out.

It’s the smaller casual flippers (not rich, poors) who would want to cut their losses if they overextended on the hype.

[Tim Plains]

Originally Posted by sudo_root

It’d be wiser to cut losses and discount now then slowly bleed out like they’re doing.

Hypothetical question. Let's pretend you are a reseller and bought four panda Daytonas at the peak a few months ago, $50k each, assuming prices would keep increasing and you'd make a decent return. What would you do with those four watches today knowing it's a $15-$20k loss per?

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

Hypothetical question. Let's pretend you are a reseller and bought four panda Daytonas at the peak a few months ago, $50k each, assuming prices would keep increasing and you'd make a decent return. What would you do with those four watches today knowing it's a $15-$20k loss per?

That didn't happen though. Their offers were always 25-30% under list and they did not raise their offers during that early 2022 run up. Two of the resellers offered me high 20s on a 2020 mint white Daytona at the time that listings were $39-42K used. I'd bet the big names never paid above $31k for a mint steel Daytona.

[bluestreak]

Wah, why won’t somebody sell me a watch for cheap…


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[afjag256]

Any chance that some of this inventory was bought with PPP loans?

[2loaded]

Cast a line, drag a lure...

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by sudo_root

It’d be wiser to cut losses and discount now then slowly bleed out like they’re doing.

According to whom?

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by EEpro

That didn't happen though. Their offers were always 25-30% under list and they did not raise their offers during that early 2022 run up. Two of the resellers offered me high 20s on a 2020 mint white Daytona at the time that listings were $39-42K used. I'd bet the big names never paid above $31k for a mint steel Daytona.

Exactly, mid 30's max. Perhaps some eager amateur greys paid more but that's an anomaly.

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

Nobody can say for certain but the sellers that are mostly 3+R (VC PP AP Rolex) have the cash flows and earnings to wait it out.

It’s the smaller casual flippers (not rich, poors) who would want to cut their losses if they overextended on the hype.

The question and unknown is "wait it out". That inventory can get rich and heavy fast. Even for the deeper pocketed greys. At what point to they throw their hands up?

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by bluestreak

Wah, why won’t somebody sell me a watch for cheap…


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Wah, why, on the brink of a world recession, won’t people keep paying rip-off prices to middle-men?

And why are people complaining about inflation - paying higher prices for stuff is far better than paying low prices