Insightful Rolex event last night (UK relevance)

[Busyboy]

Interesting. Thanks


And, as you like it:

[johnnyjazz]

That looks like a great night, thanks for the info. Was this in Glasgow?
I am surprised to hear about the Daytona, i really like the look of that one from pictures.
If i ever see one in Glasgow i will look at it from all angles.

[Hairdude1]

Looks like a fun time

[Walts]

"The answer to which, as was confirmed to me by the guy from Rolex, was simply that due to global sales exceeding projected numbers by some margin, demand had outstripped 2017's sheduled production. This was specifically exagerated in the UK due to the comparatively weak £ making the UK the cheapest place globally to buy a new Rolex. "

So while the above makes perfect sense for the current shortages of the most of the models . It doesn't explain the current and predicted future lack of stainless ceramic Daytonas . Certainly they should have anticipated the demand for the stainless ceramic Daytona . I guess now that they know the numbers they will ramp up production and we will each have a choice of black or white or both daytonas in 2018 Happy thanks giving

[DocHolliday]

Originally Posted by jctrolex

Looks like a fun evening and thank you for the great write up.

I still don’t buy the excuse for the short supply for steel Daytonas in particular. Steel Daytonas have been in short supply even before the ceramic models came on the market as far back as I can remember. How is it that Rolex did not ramp up production to meet demands during all those years? It’s not even a market prediction it’s been a known fact for years. I know ROLEX has more business savy than most other businesses in the world. I’m not convinced they got caught sleeping at the wheel.

X2. I don’t buy the excuse that “demand exceeded production” for one second. Rolex is an extremely well managed company and they would have seen a shortage coming well in advance due to their sales volume data. This is a basic supply and demand principle in any manufacturing business. That excuse they dished out sounds extremely scripted and overly simplistic.


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[Macnavara]

Originally Posted by Devildog

And some quick pics

Any other Scottish board members there?





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Looks like a great evening but whats with the cling film

[colpol]

Looks like a great night ;.)

Was this organised via another forum which has a Scottish mod ? Not been on there for a very long time

[justdate]

Good post, though I would say, to play devils advocate, it's not as though Rolex would openly and freely admit to intentionally creating near-hysteria through carefully planned undersupply! Big corporations have convinced people of far, far greater cover ups many times before now.

So I'm still yet to be convinced that the current situation isn't intentional, not that I really care - in fact I prefer it as it is now, makes it more fun to chase down watches and I lose less money when I flip!

[AK797]

I was in London today and visited/lectured many ADs today and they were all parroting the same line that Rolex had underestimated demand and all that jazz. I asked where all this great demand was coming from and they were telling me it's the Chinese. I know they have been buying big for years, and far before Brexit and we had sports models then, and I also believe things were slowing down in China now, so doesn't add up as usual. In any event ADs are really discouraged from selling to tourists and even non-locals now any way.

In the flagship store on Regent Street they have absolutely no SS sports models, but case after case after case of every DJ known to man and woman, probably over a hundred. Anyone walking in for the first time must be so disappointed with what Rolex offers, and unless they go online will think Rolex is a one watch and very old fashioned at that company. What a shambles. Anyone who thinks Rolex know what they are doing and are marketing geniuses is living in the very far distant past. Patek are just as bad, no Aquanauts or Nautiluses at all or any prospect of ever seeing one, they are just a leather watch company now too... and both ADs are empty most of the time.

[-Ally-]

So what did they say about a UK price rise?

[SevenWays]

The shortage can be seen as a good sign, actually.

It means that there are more people than was foreseen who are willing and able to buy luxury goods. That's a hopeful sign for economies everywhere.

[tamiya]

Nice marketing do, love their efforts.

Originally Posted by SevenWays

The shortage can be seen as a good sign, actually.

It means that there are more people than was foreseen who are willing and able to buy luxury goods. That's a hopeful sign for economies everywhere.

Au contraire... Rolex could be an analogue of "gold bar" store of value.

When folks sense somethings afoot (war, economic downturn, hyperinflation, etc) some swap their cash for "gold" ... to avoid keeping in currency that could devalue overnight.

Not every watch company is tight on stock.

[Godfather111]

Thank you very much for the information. This is very helpful in quelling the rumors that have gotten quite out of hand.

Originally Posted by AK797

I was in London today and visited/lectured many ADs today and they were all parroting the same line that Rolex had underestimated demand and all that jazz. I asked where all this great demand was coming from and they were telling me it's the Chinese. I know they have been buying big for years, and far before Brexit and we had sports models then, and I also believe things were slowing down in China now, so doesn't add up as usual. In any event ADs are really discouraged from selling to tourists and even non-locals now any way.

As I am from the region, and have spoken to quite a lot of ADs and resellers in HK, I can confirm this. The Mainland Chinese have been buying Rolexes in bulk. Some are taking them home to sell back in China, but most of the bulk buyers are buying for Chinese politicians or their representatives.

With President Xi Jin Ping cracking down on political corruption, it is getting more difficult to launder cash. The new currency for bribery has become Rolex sports watches. It's easy to move around, has global value that appreciates over time, and everybody wants one. No one accepts cash bribes anymore.

For example, one Chinese businessman told me that the bribe for a building permit (for a small house) is one SS. For a multi-storey building, it's one PM or three SS. For a housing development project, that's several PM's. So forth and so on.

If Rolex is considering their production schedule, they should take into account the insatiable appetite of China, which will only get more voracious next year and the years to follow.

[HK Islandboy]

Originally Posted by grimps

I'm not sure it's the case , if supply outstripped demand then they surely will have to employ more workers and machines or they can't increase supply?
The shotge of sports watches hasn't just happened over night so I'm guessing they could have already increased production by now if they intended

My guess is that it takes quite a bit of time to ramp up production - and, by Rolex timeframes, the shortage of sports watches is a recent phenomenon. In most parts of the world seems to be an issue that has arisen only in the past 3 quarters or so

[HK Islandboy]

Originally Posted by Godfather111

Thank you very much for the information. This is very helpful in quelling the rumors that have gotten quite out of hand.



As I am from the region, and have spoken to quite a lot of ADs and resellers in HK, I can confirm this. The Mainland Chinese have been buying Rolexes in bulk. Some are taking them home to sell back in China, but most of the bulk buyers are buying for Chinese politicians or their representatives.

With President Xi Jin Ping cracking down on political corruption, it is getting more difficult to launder cash. The new currency for bribery has become Rolex sports watches. It's easy to move around, has global value that appreciates over time, and everybody wants one. No one accepts cash bribes anymore.

For example, one Chinese businessman told me that the bribe for a building permit (for a small house) is one SS. For a multi-storey building, it's one PM or three SS. For a housing development project, that's several PM's. So forth and so on.

If Rolex is considering their production schedule, they should take into account the insatiable appetite of China, which will only get more voracious next year and the years to follow.

There was a dip in Chinese demand for a period in 2016 (this likely impacted Rolex’s production planning for 2017), but demand across the board seems to have come back now! The shops in HK are busy again, high roller gaming revenues in Macau are up 16% YoY.

If this momentum persists, I agree that Rolex supply shortages will continue into next year unless Rolex increases production

[jctrolex]

Originally Posted by HK Islandboy

My guess is that it takes quite a bit of time to ramp up production - and, by Rolex timeframes, the shortage of sports watches is a recent phenomenon. In most parts of the world seems to be an issue that has arisen only in the past 3 quarters or so

There has been a shortage of steel Daytonas for at least ten years. I wouldn’t call that a recent phenomenon. I am not convinced Rolex doesn’t have the capabilities to ramp up production on a single watch model to meet demands during a ten year period. Rolex can do pretty much anything Rolex wants. If Rolex is genuinely concern about people flipping watches due to the high demand and short supply they would have done something about it a long time ago. I don’t blame them for using a marketing strategy to create a hype but to feed us those lame excuses as if we’re all idiots is what I have a distaste for.

[HK Islandboy]

Originally Posted by jctrolex

There has been a shortage of steel Daytonas for at least ten years. I wouldn’t call that a recent phenomenon. I am not convinced Rolex doesn’t have the capabilities to ramp up production on a single watch model to meet demands during a ten year period. Rolex can do pretty much anything Rolex wants. If Rolex is genuinely concern about people flipping watches due to the high demand and short supply they would have done something about it a long time ago. I don’t blame them for using a marketing strategy to create a hype but to feed us those lame excuses as if we’re all idiots is what I have a distaste for.

No argument at all on the SS Daytona - enforced scarcity is clearly the strategy with this one .

My comments were in relation to the broad based scarcity in SS sports models that have happened this year

[jctrolex]

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by jctrolex

Looks like a fun evening and thank you for the great write up.
I still don’t buy the excuse for the short supply for steel Daytonas in particular. Steel Daytonas have been in short supply even before the ceramic models came on the market as far back as I can remember. How is it that Rolex did not ramp up production to meet demands during all those years? It’s not even a market prediction it’s been a known fact for years. I know ROLEX has more business savy than most other businesses in the world. I’m not convinced they got caught sleeping at the wheel.

Originally Posted by Walts

"The answer to which, as was confirmed to me by the guy from Rolex, was simply that due to global sales exceeding projected numbers by some margin, demand had outstripped 2017's sheduled production. This was specifically exagerated in the UK due to the comparatively weak £ making the UK the cheapest place globally to buy a new Rolex. "

So while the above makes perfect sense for the current shortages of the most of the models . It doesn't explain the current and predicted future lack of stainless ceramic Daytonas . Certainly they should have anticipated the demand for the stainless ceramic Daytona . I guess now that they know the numbers they will ramp up production and we will each have a choice of black or white or both daytonas in 2018 Happy thanks giving

Originally Posted by DocHolliday

X2. I don’t buy the excuse that “demand exceeded production” for one second. Rolex is an extremely well managed company and they would have seen a shortage coming well in advance due to their sales volume data. This is a basic supply and demand principle in any manufacturing business. That excuse they dished out sounds extremely scripted and overly simplistic.


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I think we have to look at Daytonas I’m isolation. They have always been in short supply for as long as I can remember. That’s definitely by design and always has been. Not specifically related to the current supply shortages.

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by justdate

Good post, though I would say, to play devils advocate, it's not as though Rolex would openly and freely admit to intentionally creating near-hysteria through carefully planned undersupply! Big corporations have convinced people of far, far greater cover ups many times before now.

So I'm still yet to be convinced that the current situation isn't intentional, not that I really care - in fact I prefer it as it is now, makes it more fun to chase down watches and I lose less money when I flip!

We also discussed that Rolex are loosing customers overs this. Not your average DJ buyers but people like us who are moving to other brands due to the frustration. That’s quite clear to the ADs.

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by HK Islandboy

No argument at all on the SS Daytona - enforced scarcity is clearly the strategy with this one .

My comments were in relation to the broad based scarcity in SS sports models that have happened this year

Agreed. Daytonas are very much strategised.

For those saying it’s all b/s from Rolex, it’s often very difficult just to ramp up production. It’s far from that simple and often more akin to piloting a supertanker than a race car. Changes take time.

The other thing we forget is that Rolex doesn’t need to meet demand. It’s not selling basic living essentials. It’s selling luxury goods. If it’s selling every sports model it produces and hitting financial targets Rolex is doing exactly what Rolex needs to do.

Where the issues probably lie is with the AD network in certain geographies who may be facing falling sales and being penalised by not having supply in the quantities they need.

But Rolex hasn’t somehow made a major mistake here. It’s not a cock up on Rolex’s part. Rolex hasn’t somehow dropped the ball. Rolex’s only “problem” is how to appease those, like us, who they risk losing to other brands. But if they can sell every sports model they produce anyway, then that’s not actually a “problem”.

We somehow feel that Rolex has a sense of obligation to meet our demand. Well no, actually, it doesn’t. And if we don’t like that we are free to look to spend our money elsewhere.

This truly is a first world problem and we should all stop acting like spoilt children and stop moaning about it.

(We won’t, of course!)

[HK Islandboy]

Originally Posted by Devildog

Agreed. Daytonas are very much strategised.

For those saying it’s all b/s from Rolex, it’s often very difficult just to ramp up production. It’s far from that simple and often more akin to piloting a supertanker than a race car. Changes take time.

The other thing we forget is that Rolex doesn’t need to meet demand. It’s not selling basic living essentials. It’s selling luxury goods. If it’s selling every sports model it produces and hitting financial targets Rolex is doing exactly what Rolex needs to do.

Rolex hasn’t somehow made a major mistake here. It’s not a cock up on Rolex’s part. Rolex hasn’t somehow dropped the ball. This isn’t not somehow a corporate failure. Rolex’s only “problem” is how to appease those, like us, who they risk losing to other brands. But if they can sell every sports model they produce anyway, then that’s not actually a “problem”

We somehow feel that Rolex has a sense of obligation to meet our demand. Well no, actually, it doesn’t. And if we don’t like that we are free to look to spend our money elsewhere.

This truly is a first world problem and we should all stop acting like spoilt children and stop moaning about it.

(We won’t, of course!)

Nicely put (very). I agree with all of this

And, please excuse my tardiness for congratulating you for having a fabulous evening...it sounds like great fun and your write up on it was very insightful

[sensui]

Cool event, thanks for sharing. I don't believe their take on resellers though. IMO this has and will continue to be a big part of marketing Rolex in perceived value. If they wanted it to stop there's far more drastic things they can do to cut them off but I know they like the mystique/exclusivity it gives to their watches/brand. Just IMO.

[Godfather111]

Originally Posted by Devildog

Where the issues probably lie is with the AD network in certain geographies who may be facing falling sales and being penalised by not having supply in the quantities they need.

But Rolex hasn’t somehow made a major mistake here. It’s not a cock up on Rolex’s part. Rolex hasn’t somehow dropped the ball. Rolex’s only “problem” is how to appease those, like us, who they risk losing to other brands. But if they can sell every sports model they produce anyway, then that’s not actually a “problem”.

We somehow feel that Rolex has a sense of obligation to meet our demand. Well no, actually, it doesn’t. And if we don’t like that we are free to look to spend our money elsewhere.

This truly is a first world problem and we should all stop acting like spoilt children and stop moaning about it.

(We won’t, of course!)

I for one, would LOVE to be plagued with Rolex's "problem."

Customers can't get enough of my product? I can't make them fast enough to satisfy demand? My distributors are selling all of their supplies as soon as they get them? The distributors are killing each other to sell my product? Oh woe is me.

The only other businessmen I've heard of with this "problem" are these two guys :

[Andad]

Very interesting information.

There has been 16+ ceramic Daytonas for sale on the Forum since the beginning of October.

Just not many available at Rolex AD's.

No shortage if you want to pay a premium.

[mstpar1]

Been to bellagio Rolex store and tournou in Cesar's and had no subs. At Caesar ad told me they are receiving one sub a month. I believe the gentleman explanation in Scotland. It makes sense. In last three months have not seen any TT bluesy


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[Devildog]

Originally Posted by sensui

Cool event, thanks for sharing. I don't believe their take on resellers though. IMO this has and will continue to be a big part of marketing Rolex in perceived value. If they wanted it to stop there's far more drastic things they can do to cut them off but I know they like the mystique/exclusivity it gives to their watches/brand. Just IMO.

My gut tells me that Rolex were happy to "turn a blind eye" to the resellers at first (I don't agree that it was a proactive strategy), but now that there is a risk of a loss of brand loyalty amongst an (albeit small) proportion of their customer base, Rolex are actively taking steps. Not to stop it (that will never happen) but to slow it down.

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by Godfather111

I for one, would LOVE to be plagued with Rolex's "problem."

Customers can't get enough of my product? I can't make them fast enough to satisfy demand? My distributors are selling all of their supplies as soon as they get them? The distributors are killing each other to sell my product? Oh woe is me.

The only other businessmen I've heard of with this "problem" are these two guys :

Indeed

[RRGHOST1]

All this Brexit BS just gets my goat, nothing to do with Brexit whotsoever. We are still in the EU, they are just using Brexit as an excuse the same as every other remainer voter does. Its because you voted to leave the EU is the reason nobody is getting their Rolex,do me favour !

[SevenWays]

Originally Posted by tamiya

Nice marketing do, love their efforts.




Au contraire... Rolex could be an analogue of "gold bar" store of value.

When folks sense somethings afoot (war, economic downturn, hyperinflation, etc) some swap their cash for "gold" ... to avoid keeping in currency that could devalue overnight.

Not every watch company is tight on stock.

Rolexes are valuable but nothing like actual gold due to convertibility. And the price of gold has been hovering around $1250 to $1300 per ounce for the last four years.

Not every watch company is as assiduous about maintaining its cachet of exclusivity as Rolex so they don't worry so much about not oversupplying the market.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...date-july-2017