Are we going to see vintage watches at 5+ years ago prices?

[xeal]

First and foremost, stay safe fellow vintage collectors.

This is not a panic thread, or one that is focused on how we must stay away from buying watches etc.
Everyone does what he can within his means.
One person's loss is another's gain, as has always been the case.
If someone has to offload for a relatively cheap price, there will be someone that is in a much more comfortable position to buy.

I post just to see what other collectors think is coming.
We can always revisit such threads in 5 years, 10 years, etc to see if it actually went any way any of us had predicted, or the way you would expect it to have gone.

Are we going to see Vintage Daytonas at 20s? 30s?
Matte dial 5513/1675 back at sub $10K?
Gilt dials in the teens?

Interesting to see what happens in the market.
For those that are able to stay put, perhaps the market will come back stronger eventually. Even if it does take a few years, it is a normal cycle.

Stay safe and it will be interesting to hear opinions whilst trying to keep it civil.

[bayareabuggs]

A lot of people here seem to be hoping this happens. Post like this started popping up two weeks ago.

[Wahlberg]

Also depends how long this is going to last. Fast forward 2-3 months and this situation is still ongoing, you'll see the difference.

[SubKing]

If there was a case of a quality example that pops up for sale under market price, it would be out of desperation to liquidate fast.. I can say with certainty, many collectors aren’t going to get rid of their quality pieces during a down turn, as they were not easily obtainable..

It all depends on people’s financial situation but for me, it would have to get to the point of poverty to let go of my personal things to buy food and other essentials to survive.. I really don’t see that happening to any of us.

The question really is, what will be the new price points once’s this all blows over and normality is restored? I suspect slightly higher market values..

We went into this recession with a strong economy, so our recovery will be quicker than the norm. It’s just a matter of when people can start living lives again to jump start the economy .

[swaini3]

I doubt. A correction is possible as some think they are due for it but to take a massive hit, it has to be a bigger and longer catastrophe. (God forbid). Sadly, There will be some that may have to liquidate for financial reasons but a huge drop like that, I really doubt.
Stay safe all.

[springer]

The high dollar vintage watches will correct, the others will not or drop very minimal in price- just like back in 2008. Back then, the prices for GMTs remained very stable, the Subs corrected a little and the high dollar vintage watches corrected substantially.

GMT 1675s sold for around $2600-$3000 during 2008. Red Subs were from $10,000-$11,000 and the collector Daytonas were substantially higher than the Subs.

[cardiel]

just like back in 2008

this situation has the potential to be a hell of a lot worse than 2008..........

[FTX I]

Originally Posted by cardiel

just like back in 2008

this situation has the potential to be a hell of a lot worse than 2008..........

I hope not but I agree.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by cardiel

just like back in 2008

this situation has the potential to be a hell of a lot worse than 2008..........

Perhaps, but it also has the potential to settle down in the coming weeks.

China is getting back to normal, Russia had very few cases, and with diligence, the US can follow suit.

[springer]

Originally Posted by cardiel

just like back in 2008

this situation has the potential to be a hell of a lot worse than 2008..........

Thanks for your perspective cardiel.

The potential, as you wrote, for anything is possible - my crystal ball isn't as clear as yours!!! It could definitely be worse, but my point concerned price corrections, nothing more, nothing less. There were corrections back in 2008 and there will be some now.

[MILGAUSS88]

I have seen large dealers raise the prices on watches that they have not sold, year after year.
So, I doubt it.

[1watch]

Originally Posted by springer

The high dollar vintage watches will correct, the others will not or drop very minimal in price- just like back in 2008. Back then, the prices for GMTs remained very stable, the Subs corrected a little and the high dollar vintage watches corrected substantially.

GMT 1675s sold for around $2600-$3000 during 2008. Red Subs were from $10,000-$11,000 and the collector Daytonas were substantially higher than the Subs.

What price cut point are you using as a reference on the earlier comment for high dollar vintage?

[cardiel]

Originally Posted by springer

Thanks for your perspective cardiel.

The potential, as you wrote, for anything is possible - my crystal ball isn't as clear as yours!!! It could definitely be worse, but my point concerned price corrections, nothing more, nothing less. There were corrections back in 2008 and there will be some now.

Springer you have just contradicted yourself........you say your chrystal ball isn't clear....but you asserted that "high dollar vintage watches will correct, the others will not or drop very minimal in price- just like back in 2008". You made a clear prediction of what would happen......

[springer]

Originally Posted by 1watch

What price cut point are you using as a reference on the earlier comment for high dollar vintage?

Hello Paul, if you don't know what is considered high dollar vintage, we can discuss it during your next phone call

[1watch]

Originally Posted by springer

Hello Paul, if you don't know what is considered high dollar vintage, we can discuss it during your next phone call

I know what I consider it to be and it probably has a different value depending on who you ask

[roh123]

Personally I think a lot of mainstream models will correct when the speculation comes out of the market. Lots of stuff bought by people who doesn’t know or care about watches as long as they just appreciate 20% annually.

But who knows.. I am not selling so it is not really an issue. I am way more concerned about other things in this crisis.

[zapokee]

Originally Posted by swish77

Perhaps, but it also has the potential to settle down in the coming weeks.

China is getting back to normal, Russia had very few cases, and with diligence, the US can follow suit.

Nice to see a calm head. Things here in Tokyo are relatively normal - people are out and about and not panicking. The supermarket shelves are full except for toilet paper. The schools remain closed as a precaution.

As for my vintage watches, I ain't selling, so short-term fluctuations don't bother me.

[Jay (Eire)]

There are way way more “investors” in this market today, both vintage and modern. To me this suggests a not insignificant chance of a much bigger correction than 08.

And right this minute, what’s going on looks like it could be far worse than 08.

[cascavel]

California, New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Illinois, France, Italy and Great Britain are in a social and economic lock down. It is impossible to sell a piece of real estate in those locations. Practical unemployment in those places is probably around 30% at the moment. Entire industries are flat lining: aerospace, airlines, casinos, hotels, cruise lines, restaurants, automobile manufacturing. The price of oil has dropped 60%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is off 9,000 points (32%) in the last month.
Will this affect the prices of luxury watches? Nah.

[colpol]

Originally Posted by roh123

But who knows.. I am not selling so it is not really an issue. I am way more concerned about other things in this crisis.

Couldn’t agree more

[L.K Johnson]

I started to track a couple of models and here are a couple that I think shows some sort of correction:

https://www.chrono24.com/rolex/subma...US&SETCURR=USD

https://www.chrono24.com/rolex/vinta...id14576438.htm

[1665fan]

2 crappy examples.....

[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by L.K Johnson

I started to track a couple of models and here are a couple that I think shows some sort of correction:

https://www.chrono24.com/rolex/subma...US&SETCURR=USD

https://www.chrono24.com/rolex/vinta...id14576438.htm

Looks like some bargains starting to appear, I like both of those


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Paulie 50]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

2 crappy examples.....

Agreed.

[SweetJones55]

Originally Posted by cardiel

just like back in 2008

this situation has the potential to be a hell of a lot worse than 2008..........

Agreed. A recession is coming and vintage watches are not immune.

[bazamu]

I'm going to copy in a response that I typed up over the weekend when discussing this question. Not that I have any more insight than others do, but it's already typed so easy to do!
"I think price declines are inevitable given the equity market's recent volatility (makes people reevaluate priorities), but I also think rare or excellent condition vintage pieces in the hands of collectors aren't going to move much in price during this cycle. Nobody is buying watches with debt and most people spending $20K+ on multiple watches are fairly liquid and won't need to firesale their watches to make ends meet.

What that ultimately means is lower volume of desirable stuff trading hands between collectors and a pronounced decline for average watches in average condition being marketed to new buyers. Oh, and the people paying $70K for a brand new Nautilus on the grey market [insert: or 2-3x for a new steel Rolex]? Wouldn't be surprised to see that house of cards collapse."

[Juhuatai]

Originally Posted by bazamu

What that ultimately means is lower volume of desirable stuff trading hands between collectors and a pronounced decline for average watches in average condition being marketed to new buyers. Oh, and the people paying $70K for a brand new Nautilus on the grey market [insert: or 2-3x for a new steel Rolex]? Wouldn't be surprised to see that house of cards collapse."

Totally agree here. Run of the mill vintage steel Rolexes should see some softening as well as the mark up on new steel Rolexes.

[L.K Johnson]

Here is some pretty recent auction results for some Rolexes...

https://www.catawiki.com/a/285837-rolex-watch-auction

Maybe not so astounding...what do you guys think?

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by L.K Johnson

Here is some pretty recent auction results for some Rolexes...

https://www.catawiki.com/a/285837-rolex-watch-auction

Maybe not so astounding...what do you guys think?

That’s a lot of datejusts for darn sure

[msp1518]

Unfortunately for me I did not realize how much I loved the 16570 cal. 3186 Explorer II until last Summer, after the prices went insane. I look at the current prices and shake my head. It's completely insane and I wonder if it will ever soften up.