Nautilus prices softening

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by frommer

I talked to New York based dealer last week. I was told Nautiluses are going down in the USA. We speak of a $60k-$70k price range.

Which makes sense. I don’t know how many buyers are out there that will pay $100% over MSRP/RRP for an SS 5711/5712. Lots want the piece, but how many are will to pay that much for it? If the grey price drops as a result of this bubble deflating, and it will deflate at some point (the better question is how much will it deflate. 5711/12s will always carry a premium) any buyer who bought at 100% over is guaranteed to lose money. Eating a $5k loss is one thing; eating $15-20k is something else.

Even if you’re going to keep it forever, it’s still a tough transaction.


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[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by dougrx00

Anyone have any opinion on the Aquanaut and prices

Ditto. I think it’s the same thing. They’ll start to drop. Question is when, and by how much. It’s crazy to think that in the last two years, the grey price has gone from just over MSRP to close to 90% of MSRP for a new, unworn one.


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[Fat_ninja]

Just want to say Watches are not investments





Lol

[Erson]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Just want to say Watches are not investments





Lol

but u buy a lot lol

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Just want to say Watches are not investments
Lol

Agreed, but for many it's understandably difficult to separate out the emotion of collecting from the cost, especially when spending the kind of money that most PPs cost.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Erson

but u buy a lot lol

Technically I buy a lot of things :)
I am FOMO

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Just want to say Watches are not investments





Lol

Precisely and that is why I ultimately passed after tracking down two 330 white dial 5711s last week when I confirmed the white was on its way out. Probably would have made a few bucks but I have better and more legal ways to deploy capital.

[RussW]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Precisely and that is why I ultimately passed after tracking down two 330 white dial 5711s last week when I confirmed the white was on its way out. Probably would have made a few bucks but I have better and more legal ways to deploy capital.

Why did you track a couple down if not to buy? Were they at retail?

[soundserious]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Just want to say Watches are not investments


Lol

I’m not too sure...

That’s like saying sneakers aren’t investments.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by soundserious

I’m not too sure...

That’s like saying sneakers aren’t investments.

Investments usually are not investments for most people

[italiafan]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Investments usually are not investments for most people

True investing requires patience, most people are impatient.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by italiafan

True investing requires patience, most people are impatient.

True investing needs a professional. And I don’t mean your average Wall Street hack

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

True investing needs a professional. And I don’t mean your average Wall Street hack

Or even your above average Wall Street hack.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Or even your above average Wall Street hack.

Wall Street is mostly average. Empirical research actually says they suck

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Wall Street is mostly average. Empirical research actually says they suck

Yup!

[Passionata]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

True investing needs a professional. And I don’t mean your average Wall Street hack

This
or luck or both

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by RussW

Why did you track a couple down if not to buy? Were they at retail?

No I don't have those sorts of connections russ. They were secondary. I thought to myself the white 330 is going to be a 1 year run nautilus and was tempted by the prospect of making some easy money. Ultimately did not execute it as it's too much hassle.

[RussW]

Originally Posted by GB-man

No I don't have those sorts of connections russ. They were secondary. I thought to myself the white 330 is going to be a 1 year run nautilus and was tempted by the prospect of making some easy money. Ultimately did not execute it as it's too much hassle.

Ah makes sense then if not retail

[Mbbgysam]

Originally Posted by GB-man

No I don't have those sorts of connections russ. They were secondary. I thought to myself the white 330 is going to be a 1 year run nautilus and was tempted by the prospect of making some easy money. Ultimately did not execute it as it's too much hassle.

I do really wonder how the white dial 330 will fare vs. the 324 given the short run. I wouldn't necessarily expect the type of spread we see in 3712 (similarly short run) vs. 5712, but probably some sort of premium.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Mbbgysam

I do really wonder how the white dial 330 will fare vs. the 324 given the short run. I wouldn't necessarily expect the type of spread we see in 3712 (similarly short run) vs. 5712, but probably some sort of premium.

I would not be too hopeful. There are other rare 5711s such as the the LED dial pieces from 2008/2009 or the new logo + old movement 5711 blues from 2018/2019. Sometimes you see people asking crazy money for a LED dial piece but mostly it just goes unnoticed. Then there are Geneva Seal and Patek Seal pieces and old bracelets w screws and new bracelets w pins. In the end all this does not seem to matter very much on the secondary market.

What I do expect though is that the white dial 5711 will be hit harder than the 5711 blue if the current craze starts to subside.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Mbbgysam

I do really wonder how the white dial 330 will fare vs. the 324 given the short run. I wouldn't necessarily expect the type of spread we see in 3712 (similarly short run) vs. 5712, but probably some sort of premium.

I ultimately decided the timeline for this rarity to matter to the market exceeded my investment horizon. I don’t have much faith in watches long term as investment vehicles but short term there’s plenty of opportunities.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Just want to say Watches are not investments





Lol

Tell it to the IRS when you sell the Paul Newman Daytona that you bought new in 1973 for $1000, hardly ever wore, and sold for $180,000 in 2016. For example.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Tell it to the IRS when you sell the Paul Newman Daytona that you bought new in 1973 for $1000, hardly ever wore, and sold for $180,000 in 2016. For example.

I’m Trying to figure out would you have made more on Paul Neumann or Microsoft?

[liljctl]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I’m Trying to figure out would you have made more on Paul Neumann or Microsoft?

A2M did!

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[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by liljctl

A2M did!

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A 2 milk. Nice

Amazing how much branding milk for lactose intolerant people can make you...by tweaking some genes lol

[locutus49]

FYI, I have been investing in individual stocks for over forty years and we live off my investment income. None of which are watches.

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

True investing needs a professional. And I don’t mean your average Wall Street hack

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by locutus49

FYI, I have been investing in individual stocks for over forty years and we live off my investment income. None of which are watches.

Exactly