Nautilus prices softening

[GB-man]

I ignore auction prices. They are almost always well above market and unless its a rare watch you're likely paying a premium because you trust Sotheby's or Christies which is hilarious given their respective track records.

[locutus49]

I would agree. We did auction one of our large old master paintings while living in the D.C. area and made a lot more than one dealer offered us. I think the auction house was Weschler, can't quite recall.

Originally Posted by GB-man

I ignore auction prices. They are almost always well above market and unless its a rare watch you're likely paying a premium because you trust Sotheby's or Christies which is hilarious given their respective track records.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I ignore auction prices. They are almost always well above market and unless its a rare watch you're likely paying a premium because you trust Sotheby's or Christies which is hilarious given their respective track records.

Agreed.

I'm always shocked at why someone would pay dramatically above market for a 5711 at auction, for instance.

But hey, good for them!

[TJMike]

Originally Posted by BigAppleBill

This makes sense. Though in the coming weeks at least, prices will stabilize and rise going into xmas. After the new year, all bets are off until the uncertainty shakes out.

Not saying you are wrong, but if grays thought prices will rise going into Christmas it is an odd time for DavidSW to be slashing prices.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by TJMike

Not saying you are wrong, but if grays thought prices will rise going into Christmas it is an odd time for DavidSW to be slashing prices.

Agreed.

And FYI to all, DavidSW is one of the most, if not the most, in-tune with the *real* market greys.

[martinr]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Agreed.

I'm always shocked at why someone would pay dramatically above market for a 5711 at auction, for instance.

But hey, good for them!

Maybe they aren’t WIS and don’t know any grey sellers or trust buying from a grey. The buy at auction because of the auction house reputation. Not everyone spends hours online researching prices. If some guy wants a 60K watch maybe he doesn’t care about the 3-4 K he might have saved.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by martinr

Maybe they aren’t WIS and don’t know any grey sellers or trust buying from a grey. The buy at auction because of the auction house reputation. Not everyone spends hours online researching prices. If some guy wants a 60K watch maybe he doesn’t care about the 3-4 K he might have saved.

Yes, that sounds about right to me.

I don't have any problems with this. :)

[Josh1000]

I bid a lot at auctions because sometimes you do get a bargain...sadly my price expectations and wallets means I.lose more than I win

[italiafan]

There is also always a danger of bravado and ego getting involved in auction bidding, especially when there are many pretty women there...seen it at car auctions.

[steeevvvooo]

For any market where you need buyers and sellers to meet and agree pricing there will always be outliers (low bids and high offers) but it's where transactions happen that counts, obviously. We don't see a book of bids and this side of the equation is very opaque for watches (apart from auctions which as discussed above are not always a good guide). We only see the offers from grey dealers and private listings on places like TRF. In that case an onlooker can only assume the clearing prices from the lower end of the offers they can see (from reputable sellers), which is certainly coming down.

Softening, yes, crash, no. Once greys are only bidding around MRSP for new pieces then it gets very sloppy as I think may happen soon on the new Batman GMT. That removes the velocity and scarcity from the market if people can't flip for profit. Nautili are far from that point at the moment.

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[Fat_ninja]

So... sell sell sell? Or buy buy buy?

[AK797]

Originally Posted by italiafan

There is also always a danger of bravado and ego getting involved in auction bidding, especially when there are many pretty women there...seen it at car auctions.

That happened to me when I got into a bidding war with James Bond over a Faberge Egg, she was a stunner.

[steeevvvooo]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

So... sell sell sell? Or buy buy buy?

I don't see them going up significantly in 6 months. That said I wouldn't be selling anything now as I recon the grey bid is going to be weak given the recent drop in prices. I'm just an observer for now but think we might see some (relative) bargains in the coming months.

Anyway, you are a list man so what do you care :)

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[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by steeevvvooo

I don't see them going up significantly in 6 months. That said I wouldn't be selling anything now as I recon the grey bid is going to be weak given the recent drop in prices. I'm just an observer for now but think we might see some (relative) bargains in the coming months.

Anyway, you are a list man so what do you care :)

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I was just asking for others :) lol

[steeevvvooo]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I was just asking for others :) lol

:)

Honestly though I think with the spread greys make it's hard to time a buy or a sell. Downmarkets are usually good for trading up in quality too and I know many Nautili holders think like this.

If someone buys a 5711 now and they are down 10k next year, and that upsets them too much, they shouldn't be buying a 60-70k watch IMO. Obviously with hindsight they may have chose to wait and buy cheaper, but that's a different story.

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[Simon.DGV]

Daytona prices fell sharply lost about 30% from its peak in 2006 during financial turmoil in 2008-2010, and stays low till 2014 and it shot up again by 200% since 2014 till today. But Daytona market price rarely fall below its AD retail even at its lowest level.
If the Nautilus price should fall further ; it may fall by 20-30% from its peak; then the brand would put a complete brake on supply to maintain price hovering at reasonable level ; for longer term the popularity will come back as Nautilus is a good quality watch with top brand. And if Nautilus fall too low, it may affects and drag down the whole Patek business including the annual, Calatrava, Aquanaut, World Time all will feel the pinch incase Nautilus price drops more than expected.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Simon.DGV

Daytona prices fell sharply lost about 30% from its peak in 2006 during financial turmoil in 2008-2010, and stays low till 2014 and it shot up again by 200% since 2014 till today. But Daytona market price rarely fall below its AD retail even at its lowest level.
If the Nautilus price should fall further ; it may fall by 20-30% from its peak; then the brand would put a complete brake on supply to maintain price hovering at reasonable level ; for longer term the popularity will come back as Nautilus is a good quality watch with top brand. And if Nautilus fall too low, it may affects and drag down the whole Patek business including the annual, Calatrava, Aquanaut, World Time all will feel the pinch incase Nautilus price drops more than expected.

I’m afraid I disagree that Patek will actively do anything to hold up prices. It wasn’t that many years ago they were readily available and sold used below retail, that is the norm over the life of the Nautilus since 1976.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by locutus49

I would agree. We did auction one of our large old master paintings while living in the D.C. area and made a lot more than one dealer offered us. I think the auction house was Weschler, can't quite recall.

Vermeer?

[martinr]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I’m afraid I disagree that Patek will actively do anything to hold up prices. It wasn’t that many years ago they were readily available and sold used below retail, that is the norm over the life of the Nautilus since 1976.

Agree and why would Patek emphasize Nautilus when it’s such a small part of what they do? They aren’t increasing production due to popularity and no way would they decrease to prop up prices. That’s not who they are.

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by martinr

Agree and why would Patek emphasize Nautilus when it’s such a small part of what they do? They aren’t increasing production due to popularity and no way would they decrease to prop up prices. That’s not who they are.

I actually think that Patek would actually continue to restrict supply. They have no reason to sell steel watches at $30k that have lower margins than their complicated watches. Having hype and scarcity is the name of the game when it comes to luxury products.

[locutus49]

Not quite. A known but third-tier artist. Provenance was okay, though and it was a nice looking painting. Painted 1820 and very large, too large for the condo we live in, so we auctioned it before moving. Plus, we were transitioning from old masters to modern and contemprory artists. We have a couple of old master paitings and drawings, but most are 20th century.

Originally Posted by GB-man

Vermeer?

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

I actually think that Patek would actually continue to restrict supply. They have no reason to sell steel watches at $30k that have lower margins than their complicated watches. Having hype and scarcity is the name of the game when it comes to luxury products.

Good thing those complicated watches have such high demand then.

Definitley don’t need to go younger with the calatrava line... should stay old.

[Josh1000]

^^ whatever out personal views of the future of the dress watch...they only need to find 40 000 people globally to fill supply. Some.models may sit at dealers longer than others but they all go eventually!!! They havent had to resort to buy backs like other brands

[martinr]

That’s right they all sell. And why would Patek care what the secondary price is one way or another. They’ve been paid their asking price by the AD’s. I’ve never been able to understand all these comments about what Patek or Rolex or whatever brand is going to do. How would any of you commentators know. You don’t but never stop pontificating like you’ve just come from a meeting with the CEO. Do you really think Thierry Stern is going to lose sleep over the price of a 5711 being less than the high asking price today by some grey dealer.

[Simon.DGV]

There were several occasions the Thai government threw rice or chickens to the sea to prop up prices and avoided farmers from bankruptcy due to over supply and selling below cost.
Look at Burberry brand they put large amounts of their unsold items on fire and published it.

Louis Vuitton too never had their unsold items on sale even during darkest recession; for same reason to keep the price high. Why Patek should be an exception , reducing supply to maintain price is a good thing.

Selling at lower price during slow sales to stimulate demand in many industries is suicidal; there are many cost that you can’t simply reduce because of recession: you can’t discount your overhead, or discount the cost of innovation, or discount the delivery cost. Consumer don’t need bargain or lower prices, they need sustainable products that can take care of them. Look at Breitling or Breguet; they are continually pumping supply to achieve desired sales target and what you see now they are in a big mess.

However Rolex is exceptional; cutting down supply line despite 80% of their products lines (everything except Cellini) are selling better than hot cakes . Patek is not to that extreme only 20% are selling well (Nautilus and Aquanaut) the rest of Patek line are non sport and the sales performances are no better than Cellini; you likely lose 20-30% of the price you paid for Patek non sport model the day you walk away from AD. And 80% of Patek watches line are non sport model.

The new extreme luxury market has shifted to Asia, and Asia is so humid , dress watches with glossy exotic straps won’t last more than a season; when the rain pours the dress watch will be wet and lose the luster. And if not properly sealed during typhoon monsoon in many parts of Asia the watch will get wet, even Nautilus or the non screw crown luxury sport watches may not withstand the weather.

Japan has caused luxury market changes its focus to Asia in the 1980s and 1990s, China is about 10 times the power of Japan. If Japan can last for 20 years, China will last for 100 years. Luxury Swiss brand that produce 80% dress watches will need to change to suit Chinese market and weather or they will be wiped off by Rolex completely.

I asked a Chinese buyer of Swiss watch; he own a watch factory in China, why are Chinese willing to pay so much for Swiss made watch and the Chinese made works exactly same tell the same time? He told me Swiss watches made to please God with perfection that human eye can’t see and Chinese made are made to please people with price.

[karasus]

Originally Posted by Simon.DGV

The new extreme luxury market has shifted to Asia, and Asia is so humid , dress watches with glossy exotic straps won’t last more than a season; when the rain pours the dress watch will be wet and lose the luster. And if not properly sealed during typhoon monsoon in many parts of Asia the watch will get wet, even Nautilus or the non screw crown luxury sport watches may not withstand the weather.

This is why sports watches are more popular. I guess when most of the dress watch designs came out in the early 1950-1970s most of the luxury market was Europe/US west coast based, where it is relatively dry seasonal weather.

[Josh1000]

^^ when I spend GBP 60000 on a 5320 do you really think the owners cares about replacing a GBP200 strap every 2 years? I think not!!! We also forget the truly high end of PP...a friend of mine wants a skymoon....told he is number 50 on the list!!!

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Josh1000

^^ when I spend GBP 60000 on a 5320 do you really think the owners cares about replacing a GBP200 strap every 2 years? I think not!!! We also forget the truly high end of PP...a friend of mine wants a skymoon....told he is number 50 on the list!!!

+1

[Mike Jab]

Originally Posted by Josh1000

^^ when I spend GBP 60000 on a 5320 do you really think the owners cares about replacing a GBP200 strap every 2 years? I think not!!! We also forget the truly high end of PP...a friend of mine wants a skymoon....told he is number 50 on the list!!!

I saw a skymoon in the Bucherer shop of Vienna the past weekend. He could contact them if he's interested.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Mike Jab

I saw a skymoon in the Bucherer shop of Vienna the past weekend. He could contact them if he's interested.

I don't think they are a PP AD?