5711 Price will avg 150k-200k and stay there.

[S``]

LOL. Let's see the new prices after the auction of the year

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by AK797

Not been following prices that closely but Watchfinder have a 5711 2016 for £95K/$130K, looks like prices still very high on these.

https://www.watchfinder.co.uk/search?q=nautilus

Looks like a bargain now.

[S``]

Originally Posted by GB-man

If you could buy LEAPS puts on the 5711 I’d load the boat.

You should thank Globex that they don't have a 5711 futures.... With margins, pants down literally

[S``]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Looks like a bargain now.

[RollinMoses]

https://www.phillips.com/detail/pate...pe/NY080121/2A

I don’t really understand the dynamics of auction, but is this really someone paying $280k for a blue dial 5711 from 2019?

[S``]

Originally Posted by RollinMoses

https://www.phillips.com/detail/pate...pe/NY080121/2A

I don’t really understand the dynamics of auction, but is this really someone paying $280k for a blue dial 5711 from 2019?

Yes

[RollinMoses]

I was offered a brand new blue dial 5711 last week for 125k, surely this auction result is something odd? Or should I be kicking myself for saying no?

[S``]

Originally Posted by RollinMoses

I was offered a brand new blue dial 5711 last week for 125k, surely this auction result is something odd? Or should I be kicking myself for saying no?

To tell you the truth, not a single clue. Let's wait a week or two to get a firm answer

[RollinMoses]

Originally Posted by S``

To tell you the truth, not a single clue. Let's wait a week or two to get a firm answer

Fair enough. More out of sporting interest at this point anyway.

[CamSLC]

I guess i'll continue to HODL

[steeevvvooo]

Auction pricing is often nuts. For vintage pieces or rare lots then I guess you need to take it as is. For any watch that is “available”, and by that I mean a good grey dealer can source for you easily for the right (market) price, auction results often look odd.

Briboxer has what looks to be a legit 5711 Tiffany dial with proper papers for similar money, so the auction result seems crazy knowing what is out there if you know where to look. I suspect many auction buyers don’t know where to look.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by S``

You should thank Globex that they don't have a 5711 futures.... With margins, pants down literally

You mistake me for Edward paper hands. Go back and google what LEAPS are.

[Bearxj86]

Yes

[S``]

Originally Posted by GB-man

You mistake me for Edward paper hands. Go back and google what LEAPS are.

I know what LEAPS are, they are options over 1 year worth of length. With the 5711 a commodity, they will be listed on the CME and trading in the Globex... It won't work as a stock, Trading will start on Sunday at 6pm CT. If you want to talk Patek, it isn't listed, and you were focused in on "shorting" a single model.

FYI, even if you had bought OTM 2023 options, you would have lost 50% easily after this price movement on Sunday open.. IV crush would have happened from Q2 (start of this thread) to before the auction because of prices staying within the price range in positive territory. IV spike would take place before the auction. A straddle before the auction will decide the +/- range of such auction. Assuming from the reaction, it went out of the straddle range in a positive way, another IV crush to your puts will take place.

Luckily for you, it's all hypothetical...So who is the clueless one here? Huh???

[kevin2242]

ANY ONE KNOW 5712 also discontinue?.

[RollinMoses]

Originally Posted by steeevvvooo

…the auction result seems crazy knowing what is out there if you know where to look. I suspect many auction buyers don’t know where to look.

I am sure this is part of it. Also if it followed the Tiffany dial then maybe there was some overexcitement / pent up demand - if someone missed out on paying 5mn for the Tiffany dial lot then 280k for a consolation prize might make sense to them, especially if they don’t have the time or inclination to look more closely at the market.

Another possible factor someone suggested in conversation was that some bidders may be driven in part by the “prestige” of being the winning bidder in a high profile auction, etc.

[cascavel]

Funny how this works, but now the Green Dial 5711 that sold for $500K a few months ago seems like a bargain. At only twice the price of a BNIB Blue 5711 and 1/13th the price of the Tiffany-Blue I can't but feel that there's a lot of upside.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by S``

I know what LEAPS are, they are options over 1 year worth of length. With the 5711 a commodity, they will be listed on the CME and trading in the Globex... It won't work as a stock, Trading will start on Sunday at 6pm CT. If you want to talk Patek, it isn't listed, and you were focused in on "shorting" a single model.

FYI, even if you had bought OTM 2023 options, you would have lost 50% easily after this price movement on Sunday open.. IV crush would have happened from Q2 (start of this thread) to before the auction because of prices staying within the price range in positive territory. IV spike would take place before the auction. A straddle before the auction will decide the +/- range of such auction. Assuming from the reaction, it went out of the straddle range in a positive way, another IV crush to your puts will take place.

Luckily for you, it's all hypothetical...So who is the clueless one here? Huh???

I made a hypothetical joke that you are seemingly taking as a serious statement. I dont view 5711s as a commodity or a long term investment. YMMV

[mwireless]

I created this thread back in March of 2021 that 5711 1/A will hit 150-200k. I hate to say I told you so. Wait.... actually I don't hate it at all LOL.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by mwireless

I created this thread back in March of 2021 that 5711 1/A will hit 150-200k. I hate to say I told you so. Wait.... actually I don't hate it at all LOL.

[mwireless]

Next Prediction. 5980 1R gets discontinued next year and hits 500-750k and then 1M in auction in 2-3 years. Just sayin lol

[911AP]

Originally Posted by mwireless

I created this thread back in March of 2021 that 5711 1/A will hit 150-200k. I hate to say I told you so. Wait.... actually I don't hate it at all LOL.

Is the blue and white dial at 150-200k? Otherwise I'd say the Tiffany and green dial versions don't count.

[subtona]

Originally Posted by mwireless

I created this thread back in March of 2021 that 5711 1/A will hit 150-200k. I hate to say I told you so. Wait.... actually I don't hate it at all LOL.

Tip of the hat to you

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Is the blue and white dial at 150-200k? Otherwise I'd say the Tiffany and green dial versions don't count.

Good call. What do you think about the 5167a?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[francoamerican]

You have to feel pretty confident in your finances to wear a 175,000 watch. To say nothing of the potential price volatility. Most folks who bought nautilus as a 30k watch don’t wear them in any way like they otherwise would. Making money is fun, but where’s the fun in a watch you can’t wear?

[Token74]

Originally Posted by francoamerican

You have to feel pretty confident in your finances to wear a 175,000 watch. To say nothing of the potential price volatility. Most folks who bought nautilus as a 30k watch don’t wear them in any way like they otherwise would. Making money is fun, but where’s the fun in a watch you can’t wear?

Rightly or wrongly I still treat my 5990 as a £40k watch, and given that I don’t intend to sell it (unless I get a genuinely crazy offer or i hit bad times) the actual value is somewhat irrelevant.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by francoamerican

You have to feel pretty confident in your finances to wear a 175,000 watch. To say nothing of the potential price volatility. Most folks who bought nautilus as a 30k watch don’t wear them in any way like they otherwise would. Making money is fun, but where’s the fun in a watch you can’t wear?

Agreed, my 12 is currently retired.

[francoamerican]

Originally Posted by Token74

Rightly or wrongly I still treat my 5990 as a £40k watch, and given that I don’t intend to sell it (unless I get a genuinely crazy offer or i hit bad times) the actual value is somewhat irrelevant.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Rightly from an emotional standpoint and very fun in it's own awesome way.

Wrongly from a cold rational economic standpoint in that income taxes and sales tax (with a USA bias) aside not selling is identical to rebuying at market price.

If you have excess funds (which most people who spent 40 gbp on a watch do) I get the emotional aspect totally and that's what i see most people doing - holding and using - most i know are wearing more lightly.

[francoamerican]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Agreed, my 12 is currently retired.

Yes my friend wears his 5712 aggressively and stopped wearing his 5711 and chrono much if at all.

[Token74]

Originally Posted by francoamerican

Rightly from an emotional standpoint and very fun in it's own awesome way.

Wrongly from a cold rational economic standpoint in that income taxes and sales tax (with a USA bias) aside not selling is identical to rebuying at market price.

If you have excess funds (which most people who spent 40 gbp on a watch do) I get the emotional aspect totally and that's what i see most people doing - holding and using - most i know are wearing more lightly.

Yeah, don’t disagree with you. And would i pay the current market price, no chance! So it’s a bit of an odd one in that respect. And if someone knocked on my door and offered me cash there and then at market value, I would take it. But i tend to go with the flow and try to live an easy life, so easier to forget the value and enjoy the watch.

The funny thing about people not wearing and enjoying their watches, is that many of them would think nothing of buying a £150k Range Rover and driving every day, through pot holes, over curbs etc, but then they won’t wear an expensive watch for fear of scratching it or it depreciating!

I only buy stuff to enjoy, and if I can’t afford to enjoy it, then although i can technically afford it, I can’t really. I’ve got an old Aston that is my daily driver 12 months of the year, and yet I live down a single track muddy farm lane.

We’re only here once, best to enjoy it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk