5711 Price will avg 150k-200k and stay there.

[shkure]

Originally Posted by mwireless

Love this discussion. Let me address this point with a few historical facts. Can we agree demand is a snowball effect. Look at the vintage Daytona. They couldn't give those things away. There are stories of dealers handing them to clients for free with other Rolex purchases. And now they sell for a hefty premium. Don't even get me started on the vintage paul newmans selling for north of 250k.

Demand works in a funny way... The minute I tell you that you can't have something, guess what. Now you must have it. That's whats happened with the most popular timepieces and exactly why Patek is discontinuing its most desired watch and will limit demand on any future replacement piece.

They've learned from their previous missteps from Hermes about how to maintain a luxury brand and that is sell less watches than the demand.

and for everyone who thinks luxury shifts over time and this watch will become less desirable, well please explain to me why vintage steel daytonas have only steadily appreciated over time even though newer larger modern ones are sold everyday and much more available?

The key to your Daytona analogy is "over time". There has been a steady appreciation in Daytona prices for decades. As far as i know, the Daytona has always been a waitlist watch for the past 20 years.

The Nautilus on the other hand, is an overnight success largely due to speculation. They could not give them away as far as 5 years go. It was literally the Patek for people that could not afford a real Patek aka Grand Comp. Similar to what Boxster is to the Carrera.

Of course social media has made demand skyrocket and now speculators have driven the price to insane levels 3-4x retail. And just to to drive the point further, the aquanaut is now 2-3x retail as well despite long being considered the Patek for people who could not afford the cheapest Patek. The Boxster to the Boxster so to speak.

A PN Daytona sells for 10x more than the equivalent Modern DaytonaC. Yet a modern 5711 sells for almost the same money as the original Genta designed 3700. Makes no sense.

[liljctl]

Originally Posted by shkure

A PN Daytona sells for 10x more than the equivalent Modern DaytonaC. Yet a modern 5711 sells for almost the same money as the original Genta designed 3700. Makes no sense.

That's because the 3700 is under valued.

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[Token74]

Originally Posted by mwireless

This would be true except for two things ...

1. if they didn't discontinue it and
2. if ballers wore steel pieces.

"Ballers" opt for the louder usually gold pieces that get attention because the watch for them is a means to an end = whether its getting attention, getting women, getting laid. The 5711 is truly for the collector who likes to fly below the radar. It's the IYKYK kind of timepiece

IYKYK = IF YOU KNOW YOU KNOW (for those that don't know) lol

I don’t agree. The true collector doesn’t value the 5711 where you are valuing it. And no way does the 5711 fly under the radar, it really ‘pops’. Just because someone doesn’t know what it is, doesn’t mean they don’t know it’s something. An Aquanaut 5065 would fly under the radar and qualify for IYKYK, but not a 5711.

From a true collector perspective, other than current demand/hype, the Nautilus is good but it’s not special.

Don’t get me wrong, i love the 5711. But there is no way I’d trade my 5990 for a 5711. As an enthusiast, the 5990 appeals far more to me based on the technical complexity. From a collector perspective, the 3700 has far more appeal.


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[mwireless]

Originally Posted by shkure

The key to your Daytona analogy is "over time". There has been a steady appreciation in Daytona prices for decades. As far as i know, the Daytona has always been a waitlist watch for the past 20 years.

The Nautilus on the other hand, is an overnight success largely due to speculation. They could not give them away as far as 5 years go. It was literally the Patek for people that could not afford a real Patek aka Grand Comp. Similar to what Boxster is to the Carrera.

Of course social media has made demand skyrocket and now speculators have driven the price to insane levels 3-4x retail. And just to to drive the point further, the aquanaut is now 2-3x retail as well despite long being considered the Patek for people who could not afford the cheapest Patek. The Boxster to the Boxster so to speak.

A PN Daytona sells for 10x more than the equivalent Modern DaytonaC. Yet a modern 5711 sells for almost the same money as the original Genta designed 3700. Makes no sense.

So only grand complications are real pateks? Yikes. Can't even imagine the backlash from that sort of comment. While we're on the subject Can you tell me which AP's are real AP's? and which rolexes are real rolexes?

Yes I did say over time. I also don't like the fact the price of the 5711 has skyrocketed so fast but the decision to discontinue it does sort of cement it's place among highly coveted timepieces.

Look I get what you're saying and every true patek collector should own a grand comp for what it is and it should be appreciated. The 5270R is stunning and I bought one for my father several years back. He loves it. He prefers the nautilus over it as it's a very comfortable watch. I've borrowed his 5270R from him and worn it to the few places (charitable galas) were it could be appreciated because that is what it deserves. But it's not something that gets a lot of wear from me or even him for that matter. It's definitely not a versatile timepiece when compared to the nautilus. I have my name on the list for a 5270P and even though they sell below list right now I still prefer to have my name on the papers. Call me stupid but it's what I prefer.


Also I don't think it's earth shattering news to say the market for the grand comps is on average older whereas the market for the nautilus is much broader.

The success of the nautilus doesn't threaten the grand comps nor vice versa. They have different purposes. But to say the nautilus is the poor mans Patek is the most ridiculous statement I've ever heard. You don't look taller by stepping on others.

[shkure]

Originally Posted by mwireless

So only grand complications are real pateks? Yikes. Can't even imagine the backlash from that sort of comment. While we're on the subject Can you tell me which AP's are real AP's? and which rolexes are real rolexes?

Yes I did say over time. I also don't like the fact the price of the 5711 has skyrocketed so fast but the decision to discontinue it does sort of cement it's place among highly coveted timepieces.

Look I get what you're saying and every true patek collector should own a grand comp for what it is and it should be appreciated. The 5270R is stunning and I bought one for my father several years back. He loves it. He prefers the nautilus over it as it's a very comfortable watch. I've borrowed his 5270R from him and worn it to the few places (charitable galas) were it could be appreciated because that is what it deserves. But it's not something that gets a lot of wear from me or even him for that matter. It's definitely not a versatile timepiece when compared to the nautilus. I have my name on the list for a 5270P and even though they sell below list right now I still prefer to have my name on the papers. Call me stupid but it's what I prefer.


Also I don't think it's earth shattering news to say the market for the grand comps is on average older whereas the market for the nautilus is much broader.

The success of the nautilus doesn't threaten the grand comps nor vice versa. They have different purposes. But to say the nautilus is the poor mans Patek is the most ridiculous statement I've ever heard. You don't look taller by stepping on others.

its a figure of speech of corse. All Pateks are lovely in a way but we can both agree that the history of PP is based on over a century of complicated watches. The Perpetual Chrono is their DNA and thats why the 1518 and 2499 are the most successful Pateks at auction nowadays and not the steel 3700.

[JerBear]

Originally Posted by mwireless

So only grand complications are real pateks? Yikes. Can't even imagine the backlash from that sort of comment. While we're on the subject Can you tell me which AP's are real AP's? and which rolexes are real rolexes?

Yes I did say over time. I also don't like the fact the price of the 5711 has skyrocketed so fast but the decision to discontinue it does sort of cement it's place among highly coveted timepieces.

Look I get what you're saying and every true patek collector should own a grand comp for what it is and it should be appreciated. The 5270R is stunning and I bought one for my father several years back. He loves it. He prefers the nautilus over it as it's a very comfortable watch. I've borrowed his 5270R from him and worn it to the few places (charitable galas) were it could be appreciated because that is what it deserves. But it's not something that gets a lot of wear from me or even him for that matter. It's definitely not a versatile timepiece when compared to the nautilus. I have my name on the list for a 5270P and even though they sell below list right now I still prefer to have my name on the papers. Call me stupid but it's what I prefer.


Also I don't think it's earth shattering news to say the market for the grand comps is on average older whereas the market for the nautilus is much broader.

The success of the nautilus doesn't threaten the grand comps nor vice versa. They have different purposes. But to say the nautilus is the poor mans Patek is the most ridiculous statement I've ever heard. You don't look taller by stepping on others.

Well said

[scurfa]

Originally Posted by alika

150-200K for a SS watch?
No thanks.

I think a lot of other people will be the same, I paid £16000 for mine and considered it overpriced, the last time I looked there was over 110 for sale on chrono24 my Daytona at £10500 was a far nicer purchase and it’s never missed a beat.


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[scurfa]

Originally Posted by jfriedkin

Does anyone remember the Rolex bubbleback?

Or the Prince!


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[vitalsigns]

In this crazy environment flush with money and widespread asset inflation, I could see the 5711 going to $150K but I could also see it drifting down to $75K over time. Both scenarios are plausible. The 5711 is not a rare watch, and demand can be fickle.

I do think we've reached the point similar to ponzi finance where the desire/intention/ability to flip to the greater fool matters more than the underlying product. That's not a commentary on people who like and wear the 5711, but those are not the ones driving the market price.

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Yeah, sure, maybe, why not?
I believe you are 100% correct about the PP marketing strategy and their attempt to capture the grey market premium by selling only PM models of the 5711 at much higher prices. I also believe that there are a lot of 5711a owners who would sell their watches if they could net $100,000 which means that, theoretically, there would be a ceiling on the price between $125 and $140K.
But if someone had told me, 2 years ago, that a NIB blue dial 5711a would be trading north of $100K I would have suggested they get psychotherapy. And I know that most of the people who frequent this site have nightmares featuring the 5711s and 5980s they were offered at, or below, retail and turned down.

LOLLL Love it! I think we all had chances to capture some watches at better prices and regret it. Here’s the thing no one has really thought about though. Watch prices have been relatively the same as they were almost 10 years ago. Not a huge jump, yet incomes have certainly gone up for a lot of people most of whom can afford luxury timepieces.



Essentially watch prices have not kept up with income and now they’re playing catch up to some extent. Why do I say that? Because after talking to Rolex, Patek and AP dealers they have seen actual demand through the roof. These are hard working ethical sales reps I’ve known for years telling me it’s normal people coming in and buying. Not just dealers and resellers. Sure they account for a portion of the market but they alone can’t account for the increases. The people are actually buying. I know that’s hard for some people to fathom but dealers aren’t raising the prices by selling to each other, lol. Although that would be pretty funny.

Is a SS steel watch worth 100k+ ? Something is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it. Why is a grand complication worth 138k? It doesn’t do anything an iPhone or digital watch can’t do. The gold or platinum on it isn’t even worth 2k if it were to be melted which would render the whole thing worthless. So what truly makes a grand comp sell for 138 and a stainless steel nautilus sell for 120k?

35% demand
15% holding power of the seller to maintain a selling price.
50% Scarcity/Rarity

Now for the life of me I can’t understand how RM watches sell for more than $35 but again the same rules apply. Now that I feel is a bubble. Patek on the other hand has heritage and a game plan behind them. If the values of their nautilus watches fall drastically now, it would affect the rest of the line most certainly. They can’t have that now can they.

[SL BRABUS]

Someone mention 5711 is stealth wealth, totally flies under the radar.... And wearing a 5711 is a sign that you’re a baller......

I have to disagree..^^^....

Let's be honest....

Today the 5711 does not flies under the radar...... Wearing with it at the wrong place and you get rob......

Wearing a 5711 is a sign that you’re a baller.. Huh.... Not really..... Their thinking why not buy something that you can wear, enjoy, showoff, and earn high interest than the bank.....I know some people who do those kind of thing because they think is a safe place to park their money.... When ever they need the money they can always cash out....

One thing I can agree is SS trend is here to stay...... People lifestyle are more laid back now days......

[llngoc]

Originally Posted by shkure

The key to your Daytona analogy is "over time". There has been a steady appreciation in Daytona prices for decades. As far as i know, the Daytona has always been a waitlist watch for the past 20 years.

The Nautilus on the other hand, is an overnight success largely due to speculation. They could not give them away as far as 5 years go. It was literally the Patek for people that could not afford a real Patek aka Grand Comp. Similar to what Boxster is to the Carrera.

Of course social media has made demand skyrocket and now speculators have driven the price to insane levels 3-4x retail. And just to to drive the point further, the aquanaut is now 2-3x retail as well despite long being considered the Patek for people who could not afford the cheapest Patek. The Boxster to the Boxster so to speak.

A PN Daytona sells for 10x more than the equivalent Modern DaytonaC. Yet a modern 5711 sells for almost the same money as the original Genta designed 3700. Makes no sense.

I had a Boxster and currently have a 911 TT-S. I would not say a Boxster is for someone who cannot afford a 911. It is a different car aimed for different purpose. If I want a fun car for a weekend drive with the top down, I will take a Boxster any day over a 911. Many people have both and enjoy both.

Sports watch vs Grand Complication dress watch

[ts3]

Originally Posted by shkure

I would not be so sure about that 5711 blue. This was the same sentiment about the 5970 in 2006-2007 when it was trading well above retail. People thought it will never go down. Look at it now...

I have no sentiment other than that 5711 blue will likely fare better than most in case of a major correction of SS watch prices. Of course its market price may drop from current levels and by a lot too.

[Russell996]

Only time will tell where the current insane price trends go.

Enjoyed the opening of the Keukenhof gardens online this week.

[llngoc]

We had tulips. beany babies, internet stocks @2000 and everyone said that they will only go up...

[ec00421]

Whilst I do not see the price of 5711 ever plummeting, i also do not see it sustaining at the levels (in real terms) you mentioned.
5711 had a long production run and there are too many examples out there.
It is not an intrinsically special/rare watch imo.
Just my 2c.

[Bloomberg]

I don’t understand the policy: buy one or few non hype watches to get the hype watch.
It does not help the brand. People buy these watches without interest and resell it with a huge discount. And people notices that some models of the brand are traded with huge discount...

[Aqua75]

Originally Posted by llngoc

We had tulips. beany babies, internet stocks @2000 and everyone said that they will only go up...

But none of the insane money printing causing inflation we are currently seeing. There’s a lot of cash sloshing around out there and it’s doing no good sitting in the bank so people look for other assets to invest in. Look at Bitcoin for example.

[azizu]

Originally Posted by mwireless

There's a reason why the grand comp market is selling below list for the past decade and a half

curious to know your theory of why grand comp market have been selling below list for the past decade and a half?
and how do you think it will look in the future?

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by Bloomberg

I don’t understand the policy: buy one or few non hype watches to get the hype watch.
It does not help the brand. People buy these watches without interest and resell it with a huge discount. And people notices that some models of the brand are traded with huge discount...

In fairness, I am struggling to follow your logic. Patek is in the business of selling watches. Leveraging an in-demand watch in that manner is the best way to sell watches. It also happens to help, to extent possible, screen those actual enthusiasts who genuinely want to build a brand relationship versus those that simply want to flip.

And, let’s not forget that it is the norm, not exception, for watches to trade at a discount to MSRP. The top tier brands and, specifically, their stainless steel sport models being the obvious exception.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by vitalsigns

In this crazy environment flush with money and widespread asset inflation, I could see the 5711 going to $150K but I could also see it drifting down to $75K over time. Both scenarios are plausible. The 5711 is not a rare watch, and demand can be fickle.

The white 5711 has been discontinued for a year and its value is now at 99k based on C24. The 5711 blue has always command a premium over the white 5711 due to it being more popular with watch collectors. Over time, I can see the pricing of both discontinued watches going up. I estimate there are only 9,000 blue (1.5 x 400 x 15) and 3,200 white (1 x 400 x 8) ever produced. It may seems like a lot but the demand for 5711, as we know, is very high among watch collectors. Rolex probably sells more SS Daytona in 1 year alone and their current price is trading at 2.5x without discontinuation. To me it's all about the demand for true luxury SS sports watches, and in this arena, Patek Nautilus is king.

[NYG1121]

Lets not over complicate things. Its always about supply/demand. One part of that equation is done. The second part is a moving target and currently being purely driven by speculation as above poster stated. That may or may not continue but 5711 will always have a place in history and command a premium. No one knows by how much

[JasonBetts]

Originally Posted by shkure

.

It was literally the Patek for people that could not afford a real Patek aka Grand Comp. Similar to what Boxster is to the Carrera.

A PN Daytona sells for 10x more than the equivalent Modern DaytonaC. Yet a modern 5711 sells for almost the same money as the original Genta designed 3700. Makes no sense.

I can afford both Patek but my real Patek is the SS Nautilus for practicality sake.

On your Paul Newman's Daytona vs 3700 point, just wait until Salt Bae auctions his 3700 for $17.9 million


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[mwireless]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

The white 5711 has been discontinued for a year and its value is now at 99k based on C24. The 5711 blue has always command a premium over the white 5711 due to it being more popular with watch collectors. Over time, I can see the pricing of both discontinued watches going up. I estimate there are only 9,000 blue (1.5 x 400 x 15) and 3,200 white (1 x 400 x 8) ever produced. It may seems like a lot but the demand for 5711, as we know, is very high among watch collectors. Rolex probably sells more SS Daytona in 1 year alone and their current price is trading at 2.5x without discontinuation. To me it's all about the demand for true luxury SS sports watches, and in this arena, Patek Nautilus is king.

So well said my friend!

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by JasonBetts

I can afford both Patek but my real Patek is the SS Nautilus for practicality sake.

On your Paul Newman's Daytona vs 3700 point, just wait until Salt Bae auctions his 3700 for $17.9 million


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That's hilarious! I was thinking maybe Charlie Sheen or Brad Pitt but sure why not. :))

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by azizu

curious to know your theory of why grand comp market have been selling below list for the past decade and a half?
and how do you think it will look in the future?

So my dealer told me they get maybe two 5270's a year. They don't make a ton of them and yet they still sell at a discount. 20-25% off list. That's a significant hit. I paid roughly 140K for the 5270R I gave to my father. I've seen a few trading around 110k in the watch groups last year. Not to mention a few have literally been sitting at the same place on sale for 130K over a year. My only conclusion is that the demand for them just really isn't there. Pretty scary to be honest. I don't think it will ever tank because there is a market for that watch but I don't see it ever going at list or above because that market is very small, generally older and conservative.

I have friends with collections of multiple heavy hitter watches, and maybe just 1 grand complication if that. I don't see the grand comp ever selling above list unless Patek decides to discontinue it for a span of time or makes it a requirement to have it in the purchase history for getting a nautilus.

I will say this...There's way more people claiming only a grand comp is a real patek than there are owners of grand comps or pateks for that matter LOL.
Fact of the matter is... The nautilus has kept Patek relevant and in the lead. I shudder to imagine where Patek would be without the nautilus line.

[shkure]

Originally Posted by mwireless

So my dealer told me they get maybe two 5270's a year. They don't make a ton of them and yet they still sell at a discount. 20-25% off list. That's a significant hit. I paid roughly 140K for the 5270R I gave to my father. I've seen a few trading around 110k in the watch groups last year. Not to mention a few have literally been sitting at the same place on sale for 130K over a year. My only conclusion is that the demand for them just really isn't there. Pretty scary to be honest. I don't think it will ever tank because there is a market for that watch but I don't see it ever going at list or above because that market is very small, generally older and conservative.

I have friends with collections of multiple heavy hitter watches, and maybe just 1 grand complication if that. I don't see the grand comp ever selling above list unless Patek decides to discontinue it for a span of time or makes it a requirement to have it in the purchase history for getting a nautilus.

I will say this...There's way more people claiming only a grand comp is a real patek than there are owners of grand comps or pateks for that matter LOL.
Fact of the matter is... The nautilus has kept Patek relevant and in the lead. I shudder to imagine where Patek would be without the nautilus line.

There is so much anecdotal evidence in this response that i dont even know where to start. Patek themselves have said they they produce max 10% of watches in steel. So your claim that the Nautilus somehow kept Patek afloat is really outrageous and not true. As a matter of fact, PP is discontinuing the Nautils altogether. If that was their bread a butter, why would they do that??? Because they sell way more complicated watches that steel sports watches. and they dont want to let the short term speculators change that.

Ill repeat it again, the DNA of Patek is the Grand Complication, not the Nautilus. The company is telling you the same thing by discontinuing the 5711. Dont argue with me, just listen to them.

As far as 5270 being a watch for old people, i strongly disagree. And collectors having mostly sports watches in their collection is because thats the trend right now. If you looked at their collections in early 2000s it was complicated Pateks and RO LE Offshores. Trends always change, and collections follow. End of days Ofshore was trading at 3x as well, but now they are back at or below retail. It might seem outrageous now, but dont be surprised if the Nautilus follows.

in the long term, a Patek Perputal Chrono will always be worth more than a basic 3 hander steel Nautilus. Go compare a 2499 with a 3700. The are both vintage and from the same period. The 2499 is worth orders of magnitude more. Because again, the DNA of Patek is the Grand Comp.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

The white 5711 has been discontinued for a year and its value is now at 99k based on C24. The 5711 blue has always command a premium over the white 5711 due to it being more popular with watch collectors. Over time, I can see the pricing of both discontinued watches going up. I estimate there are only 9,000 blue (1.5 x 400 x 15) and 3,200 white (1 x 400 x 8) ever produced. It may seems like a lot but the demand for 5711, as we know, is very high among watch collectors. Rolex probably sells more SS Daytona in 1 year alone and their current price is trading at 2.5x without discontinuation. To me it's all about the demand for true luxury SS sports watches, and in this arena, Patek Nautilus is king.

I personally think your numbers are low, but even if they were double, the numbers are still small given the current demand. I believe the ongoing issue for the market price of the 5711/2/26 etc will be around the demographic paying or thinking of paying these highly inflated prices, I simply don't believe the majority of pieces selling at these exorbitant prices (if they are selling) are being bought to wear, they are being bought as investments and as such will instantly be sold once the lack of potential growth becomes obvious. Watches are not investments, contrary to most messages in this thread I would urge anyone who bought their 5711 as a store of money at an inflated price and doesn't wear it to sell now and avoid the obvious market correction that will come. The Nautilus is King, agreed, but it is currently not priced sensibly on the secondary market and at some point this will change.
The watch market is probably going through the biggest change in it's history with the ability to buy and sell at a whim, much the same as with cars, virtually every other person is a watch dealer and some of the larger players are doing a great job of bringing more people into this amazing hobby of ours. There is now a ground swell of interest in watches and the amazing products that are available from many manufacturers, personally I see a great future for inventive independents and main stream players. The more buyers are educated in the watch market the more their interests and buying choices will diversify, that is all to the good but will hit the hyped and overinflated models, which to be honest is good for everyone, Patek included.

Originally Posted by mwireless

So my dealer told me they get maybe two 5270's a year. They don't make a ton of them and yet they still sell at a discount. 20-25% off list. That's a significant hit. I paid roughly 140K for the 5270R I gave to my father. I've seen a few trading around 110k in the watch groups last year. Not to mention a few have literally been sitting at the same place on sale for 130K over a year. My only conclusion is that the demand for them just really isn't there. Pretty scary to be honest. I don't think it will ever tank because there is a market for that watch but I don't see it ever going at list or above because that market is very small, generally older and conservative.

I have friends with collections of multiple heavy hitter watches, and maybe just 1 grand complication if that. I don't see the grand comp ever selling above list unless Patek decides to discontinue it for a span of time or makes it a requirement to have it in the purchase history for getting a nautilus.

I will say this...There's way more people claiming only a grand comp is a real patek than there are owners of grand comps or pateks for that matter LOL.
Fact of the matter is... The nautilus has kept Patek relevant and in the lead. I shudder to imagine where Patek would be without the nautilus line.

I find myself disagreeing with virtually all your conclusions.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by shkure

There is so much anecdotal evidence in this response that i dont even know where to start. Patek themselves have said they they produce max 10% of watches in steel. So your claim that the Nautilus somehow kept Patek afloat is really outrageous and not true. As a matter of fact, PP is discontinuing the Nautils altogether. If that was their bread a butter, why would they do that??? Because they sell way more complicated watches that steel sports watches. and they dont want to let the short term speculators change that.

Ill repeat it again, the DNA of Patek is the Grand Complication, not the Nautilus. The company is telling you the same thing by discontinuing the 5711. Dont argue with me, just listen to them.

As far as 5270 being a watch for old people, i strongly disagree. And collectors having mostly sports watches in their collection is because thats the trend right now. If you looked at their collections in early 2000s it was complicated Pateks and RO LE Offshores. Trends always change, and collections follow. End of days Ofshore was trading at 3x as well, but now they are back at or below retail. It might seem outrageous now, but dont be surprised if the Nautilus follows.

in the long term, a Patek Perputal Chrono will always be worth more than a basic 3 hander steel Nautilus. Go compare a 2499 with a 3700. The are both vintage and from the same period. The 2499 is worth orders of magnitude more. Because again, the DNA of Patek is the Grand Comp.

I think mwireless said the the Nautilus has kept Patek relevant, not afloat. How many non serious watch buyers would know anything about Patek were it not for the Nautilus series? Without the Nautilus, Patek would not register in the consciousness of most high end watch buyers any more than does Lange, Laurent Ferrier, JLC, Vacheron etc.
As for PM complicated watches, they don't communicate wealth any better than does a stainless watch with no complications, $100,000, no matter what watch it's spent on sends the same message: I'm rich.
As for Patek's chronograph series, whether it's the 5070, 5170, 5172 or 5270, who can easily differentiate one from the other? They all have, basically, the same eye appeal from 5 feet away, and they've been produced for years.
The current craze for SS watches is about the message it sends to viewers; I'm sporty, trendy, wealthy, I spend most of my time online reading fashion blogs and keeping up with the latest thing.

[shkure]

Originally Posted by cascavel

I think mwireless said the the Nautilus has kept Patek relevant, not afloat. How many non serious watch buyers would know anything about Patek were it not for the Nautilus series? Without the Nautilus, Patek would not register in the consciousness of most high end watch buyers any more than does Lange, Laurent Ferrier, JLC, Vacheron etc.
As for PM complicated watches, they don't communicate wealth any better than does a stainless watch with no complications, $100,000, no matter what watch it's spent on sends the same message: I'm rich.
As for Patek's chronograph series, whether it's the 5070, 5170, 5172 or 5270, who can easily differentiate one from the other? They all have, basically, the same eye appeal from 5 feet away, and they've been produced for years.
The current craze for SS watches is about the message it sends to viewers; I'm sporty, trendy, wealthy, I spend most of my time online reading fashion blogs and keeping up with the latest thing.

How many of those non-serious watch buyers are buying a Nautilus to keep and wear like you describe? I would be shocked if its more than 1 in 10. The demographic you describe that likes to look cool and hip in Insta dont have 110k to drop on a steel Nautilus. These are being bought for speculation mostly, and they will get dumped just as quick, once those non-serious buyers realise that they actually overpaid for them.

The most similar event in the past is the Royal Oak Ofshore bubble of the early 2000s. People have short memory nowadays, but back then, those Ofshores were going for 3x retail and buyers were gobbling them up thinking they will never go down. That bubble deflated, and it deflated quick. The same gray dealers that were selling these at 3x retail, were all of the sudden bidding 20% below retail a few short months later. The Ofshore market has not recovered since, and its been over 10 years.

The 5711 has been a series production watch for a while, and they are actually quite a few out there. Patek know the risk, and is getting ahead of it but discontinuing the reference all together.

Originally Posted by cascavel

Without the Nautilus, Patek would not register in the consciousness of most high end watch buyers any more than does Lange, Laurent Ferrier, JLC, Vacheron etc.

Strongly disagree. You must have a very short memory to think that the Nautilus is keeping Patek relevant. Let me remind you that the same nautilus was sitting in AD's cases just a short 5 years ago and was being routinely discounted 20%. Do not confuse a short term trend with Pateks 200+ years relevance as the pinnacle of the luxury watch business.