5711 Price will avg 150k-200k and stay there.

[mwireless]

Guys, so I just spoke to my dealer and it seems like the fate of the 5711 maybe be similar to that of the 3700. Prices to the moon. lol Can't say when but we may see prices between reach an avg price of 150k-200k and stay there for a few reasons.

1. The send off version that is set to come out later this year is going to be extremely limited and offered to those with application pieces and/or ridiculous purchase history. I own 5 serious Pateks and I was told it may be impossible for me to get one.

2. Also I was told the new version/replacement will not be launched right away. And even if it is, they are strongly considering platinum and maybe white gold as the replacement. Titanium seems unlikely. Either way the 5711 replacement (6711) will have the same difficulty of attainability plus a much higher starting price point, maybe double for the white gold and triple for platinum.

Patek as a company is really missing out on a huge premium by selling a steel watch for 33k that sells on the aftermarket for 100k. Instead of suddenly charging 50-60k for a steel watch, its easier to discontinue it and launch a replacement in white gold and platinum version for much much higher.

3. If you didn't already know, the margins are much much higher on precious metals than they are on steel pieces. I would say if you own a 5711, don't sell it! Patek really wants to protect the brand by limiting the amount of steel Nautili that are roaming free in the wild. (I've been wanting to say that for some time, LOL)

At first I thought it was just the dealers behind this but let me assure you... This selling strategy is coming down straight from corporate. I know this because I've visited the factory and they have trained their dealers to follow the selling technique of Hermes who makes you buy a bunch of other things before they offer you a Birkin handbag. This is how they protect the brand from dilution and mediocrity and keep it the desired luxury watch brand it is into the next generation. If you think this is a bubble, you're mistaken. If you think watch prices will come down, you're mistaken. They may correct a bit for a moment in time (10-15%) but it is highly unlikely to see the most desired pieces ever selling at or even near list again. As it is with Hermes, those days are long gone because it's a restructuring in the way watches are going to be sold.

Rolex and AP are following suit. Go to your Rolex dealer and you will see empty watch cases full of datejusts that once used to hold day-dates, skydwellers and platinum daytonas. Now they're all on a waitlist. 3 year waitlist on royal oaks that used to always be available just before the pandemic.

2016: my Patek dealer begging me to buy a nautilus at discount.
2021: i'm begging my dealer to allow me to buy some ridiculous package to get another nautilus LOL

The strategy is genuinely working. But it's not all bad because all of our watches are appreciating in value, hopefully to stay that way.

Sorry for the long essay, but I would love to hear everyone's thoughts. :)