Patek Philippe for sale?

[APAP]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...g-analysts-say

Thoughts?

[zahain]

Most likely not. It may restructure itself or whatever they need but will never let the brand go for sale to be taken by one of the large groups like Richemont or Swatch. Would go downhill form there if they did though.. Francois would be laughing at all press convo's about how Audemars is still privately owned then

Thierry spoke about that in 2014, they must of found some sort of solution by now to continue as a privately owned company

[Ichiran]

If the business needs to be sold, does it imply that the 80% dress watch model is no longer sustainable (lack of demand), and the Sterns are unwilling to expand on the 20% sports range due to pride issues?

[tom2517]

Maybe it’s just a rumor or maybe not, but if the Stern family can get 8-10 billion I think they would sell it. Patek is making a product that increasingly is something people don’t need, who knows what the future will hold?

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

If the business needs to be sold, does it imply that the 80% dress watch model is no longer sustainable (lack of demand), and the Sterns are unwilling to expand on the 20% sports range due to pride issues?

i would guess focusing on what sells would be a better strategy than selling the company. Its pretty obvious what a luxury group would do to Patek so i would just rather Patek does it themselves. Make 50% nautilus or something if they need to

I do think pre owned Patek value would go through the roof though as it would be like the entire company is discontinued. I would never buy another one, for sure. If they sold the company.

[yoast]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

i would never buy another one, for sure. If they sold the company.

+1

[pam66]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

i would guess focusing on what sells would be a better strategy than selling the company. Its pretty obvious what a luxury group would do to Patek so i would just rather Patek does it themselves. Make 50% nautilus or something if they need to

I do think pre owned Patek value would go through the roof though as it would be like the entire company is discontinued. I would never buy another one, for sure. If they sold the company.

going through the roof..i don't know. whoever buys patek will produce the same nautilus models as before, just many more of them and dump the dress watch production. sports models will go down and maybe dress watches will become scarce.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by pam66

going through the roof..i don't know. whoever buys patek will produce the same nautilus models as before, just many more of them and dump the dress watch production. sports models will go down and maybe dress watches will become scarce.

there would be a premium on "old patek" "independent patek" or whatever people would call it. They would make the same watches but in no way would they be the same company. Collectors place a premium generally on a company being an independent. The last of the independent watches would be worth more than the new releases of the same model. They would have to be IMO

I think Rolex collectors would pay more for a Rolex watch made by independent Rolex vs a Rolex made by swatch absolutely if both were on offer in the preowned market. Which would you choose?

[GoingPlaces]

I'm not sure that if sold, production #'s would change. It's possible, but I have to believe that this would factor into who buys them. This is a delicate brand, too much production and the value might drop right? I mean part of what makes PP special is not everyone has one or can have one. Who knows, it's speculation at this point.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

I'm not sure that if sold, production #'s would change. It's possible, but I have to believe that this would factor into who buys them. This is a delicate brand, too much production and the value might drop right? I mean part of what makes PP special is not everyone has one or can have one. Who knows, it's speculation at this point.

luxury groups dont really care about preowned value. They need to sell new watches and need to meet profit targets for external shareholders. Omega could protect their preowned prices as an independent, as part of swatch, they just want to sell as many as they can. Thats also why you dont have to WL for anything. If you want a watch then they want to sell it to you and anyone else who wants it. If its not hard to get that deflates secondary prices, but why would swatch care?

[bobfish]

It might be easier to buy the entire company than to find a 5711 at retail price ...

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by bobfish

It might be easier to buy the entire company than to find a 5711 at retail price ...

You should be able to get a 5711 at below retail price anywhere and any time if the Sterns sell the Patek brand to LVMH, Swatch or Richemont....

[77T]

The future of PP - and it’s ability to remain independent - are closely tied to the choices of a few teenagers in the family. If they choose career paths like law, medicine, or art then PP will need outside help.

If Stern sees a negative trajectory, he could be exploring options without trying to devalue the company. Ergo new rumors.

Heavy losses could be masked by private ownership - the high investment made in the recent past may be taxing their debt load. Such things could be at work here.


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[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

i would guess focusing on what sells would be a better strategy than selling the company. Its pretty obvious what a luxury group would do to Patek so i would just rather Patek does it themselves. Make 50% nautilus or something if they need to

I do think pre owned Patek value would go through the roof though as it would be like the entire company is discontinued. I would never buy another one, for sure. If they sold the company.

I reckon it is pride at play, because he has publicly and specifically spoken at length about limiting sports production to 20%. Doing a complete U-turn might be bad for his credibility and image. Besides, 10bn can last his family for a long time...

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by 77T

The future of PP - and it’s ability to remain independent - are closely tied to the choices of a few teenagers in the family. If they choose career paths like law, medicine, or art then PP will need outside help.

If Stern sees a negative trajectory, he could be exploring options without trying to devalue the company. Ergo new rumors.

Heavy losses could be masked by private ownership - the high investment made in the recent past may be taxing their debt load. Such things could be at work here.


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i see your point but how old was TS's father when he handed over to TS? TS is still pretty young to have that problem of needing someone to take over in the short term

[tng11]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

I would never buy another one, for sure. If they sold the company.

Agreed. Even with the current production lineup there are very few models I'd be willing to spend my money on, selling to Swatch or Richemont would be the nail in the coffin for me.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I reckon it is pride at play, because he has publicly and specifically spoken at length about limiting sports production to 20%. Doing a complete U-turn might be bad for his credibility and image. Besides, 10bn can last his family for a long time...

Tiffany would probably buy it. If they are selling, they would be the likely choice. Anything but a watch group would be preferred to me

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by tng11

Agreed. Even with the current production lineup there are very few models I'd be willing to spend my money on, selling to Swatch or Richemont would be the nail in the coffin for me.

exactly. I love my Omega and they make great watches, but i didn't spend 50k on it. No way i spend Patek money unless its the whole package.

To me ALS is the only high end brand that gets a pass for not being independent since the only reason they are around is because a group helped them re start after they ceased to exist and the reason for that was a lot of stuff that has nothing to do with watches or sales as pretty sure the east germans took over the factory and nationalized it after WWII

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

Tiffany would probably buy it. If they are selling, they would be the likely choice. Anything but a watch group would be preferred to me

I'm thinking Rolex can be an ideal buyer too? Kind of like VW buying Porsche and Bentley. Rolex can then replace their unpopular Cellini line with the dressy pieces from Patek, and the Nautilus can be the 911 of the Volkswagen Automotive Group. Just a thought.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I'm thinking Rolex can be an ideal buyer too? Kind of like VW buying Porsche and Bentley. Rolex can then replace their unpopular Cellini line with the dressy pieces from Patek, and the Nautilus can be the 911 of the Volkswagen Automotive Group. Just a thought.

its not the craziest idea actually. Rolex has a ton of money, a tax structure that gives them a competitive advantage, and dont mind playing the long game. All their profits go back into the company and not paying out shareholders. Im sure they have money they dont even know what to do with

[KetaPatek]

amazing at the extreme mark ups they still can't remain solvent enough to not need a buyout. assuming any merit to "rumor".

of course rapacious taxes don't help anyone except the thieves imposing them on behalf of their dynastic banking cabals. oh well...

[jcoltrane]

I’d be delighted if Rolex bought Patek (*if* this rumor is true), but we should also keep in mind that if TS’s kids don’t want to take over the family biz, that doesn’t automatically mean a sale. Most industries value meritocracy over nepotism, and perhaps all Patek needs is an outside perspective if they’re running into financial issues. Having said that, I’d also stop buying Patek if a PE firm or Richemont/Swatch bought them.

[kingofthehill]

Whilst (time permitting) I am considering writing about it in more detail on the AP forum, given the acceptance that the traditional dress watch market is suffering, I do not understand the widespread surprise that AP decided to take a different direction.

Interesting ideas on potential acquirers!

[s.m.b.]

Crazy. I would definitely stop buying Pateks if the brand fell into the hands of a corporate conglomerate.

[77T]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

i see your point but how old was TS's father when he handed over to TS? TS is still pretty young to have that problem of needing someone to take over in the short term

I don’t know the answer but sure it could be found. But that was then, and TS was groomed for his eventual ascent to the helm.

I’m saying he may already know there’s no chance his kids will follow suit. All just speculation if the rumors are true.


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[tom2517]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

amazing at the extreme mark ups they still can't remain solvent enough to not need a buyout. assuming any merit to "rumor".

of course rapacious taxes don't help anyone except the thieves imposing them on behalf of their dynastic banking cabals. oh well...

I hardly thinks Patek is considering this (assuming it is true) because they are not solvent, sometimes it’s ok to sell if someone offers you a price you can’t refuse.

If someone is going to offer me 500k for my 5131P, you damn right I am selling it.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by 77T

I don’t know the answer but sure it could be found. But that was then, and TS was groomed for his eventual ascent to the helm.

I’m saying he may already know there’s no chance his kids will follow suit. All just speculation if the rumors are true.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

just saying TS may be the one not into it regardless of his children, if now is the time.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by ichiran

you should be able to get a 5711 at below retail price anywhere and any time if the sterns sell the patek brand to lvmh, swatch or richemont....

+1

[kingofthehill]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

just saying TS may be the one not into it regardless of his children, if now is the time.

This is an impression that he has given me for some time.

[kingofthehill]

Originally Posted by s.m.b.

Crazy. I would definitely stop buying Pateks if the brand fell into the hands of a corporate conglomerate.

With that said, look to the success of e.g. Rimowa in LVMH's hands...'purists' might be disappointed, but sales are through the roof as are prices.