Patek Philippe for sale?

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Why? They make 50,000+ per annum currently.

Can't see why a 2018 5740 would be worth more than a 2020 5740?

people sometimes want a geneva seal patek vs a patek seal patek. I have to think an independent patek is worth more than a Swatch Patek as a lot of the "value" isnt just the watch. Its the story, the history, the manufacture. You lose all that justification to pay more money on the secondary market at least. Im sure they will still sell at the same retail but they wont hold value as well or increase as much

[msolace]

Originally Posted by jcoltrane

...
Having said that, I’d also stop buying Patek if a PE firm or Richemont/Swatch bought them.

Final nail in the coffin for me too....

[msolace]

Originally Posted by s.m.b.

Plenty of people would still buy their watches; I'm simply stating I wouldn't be one of them. For me, being independently owned is a large part of the Patek appeal.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Token74

Because collectors will value a watch made before the change higher than they will after the change, even if the watch is identical. There may be no logic to it, but it is what happens.

And they certainly don’t make 50,000 £50k+ watches per annum.

Originally Posted by tyler1980

people sometimes want a geneva seal patek vs a patek seal patek. I have to think an independent patek is worth more than a Swatch Patek as a lot of the "value" isnt just the watch. Its the story, the history, the manufacture. You lose all that justification to pay more money on the secondary market at least. Im sure they will still sell at the same retail but they wont hold value as well or increase as much

Personally I don't believe a sale is on the cards for many reasons but even if it was 'The history of the brand' is still 'The history of the brand'.
There is no reason to expect watches to increase in value, the recent Nautilus market is not normal and can't continue, people buying at twice retail will at some point catch a very bad cold. Many of the 'old' pieces commanding premiums in the current frenzy will also drop back when normality returns, which as always it will at some point.

[msolace]

Originally Posted by tom2517

...

Anyways, it’s hard for businesses to last centuries, just too much unpredictability. Something like only 60 companies still exist from Fortune 500 in 1955. Patek might go strong for another 50 years or it might not, I wouldn’t blame the Stern family if someone offer them 10B and they decided to sell.

J.P. Morgan once said "Everything has a price. You just have to find out what it is" (when he was out to make an offer of Vanderbilt's railroad company)

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Personally I don't believe a sale is on the cards for many reasons but even if it was 'The history of the brand' is still 'The history of the brand'.
There is no reason to expect watches to increase in value, the recent Nautilus market is not normal and can't continue, people buying at twice retail will at some point catch a very bad cold. Many of the 'old' pieces commanding premiums in the current frenzy will also drop back when normality returns, which as always it will at some point.

but you are ignoring the tiny differences that make all the difference in value. Look at a flat 4 sub. that is worth way more for reasons that make far less sense than valuing something made from a previously independent company that no longer exists in the same form.

Im skeptical this sale is for real too. Just saying

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

Im skeptical this sale is for real too. Just saying

[msolace]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

...

Im skeptical this sale is for real too. Just saying

If anything, now is the time to jump in and make more Patek purchases of the pieces you've always wanted to own.. No?
Lest they should cost more post company sale, rendering them less affordable?

[APAP]

Pumping cash into PP will most definitely result in higher production numbers. I'm really hoping it's only a rumor as I wouldn't want to buy a greedy corporate owned watch. PP would have zero heritage then as far as I'm concerned.

[kingofthehill]

Perhaps it is worthwhile remembering that the Stern family acquired Patek Philippe in 1932. They may well be interested in selling their equity at an attractive valuation.

[msolace]

Originally Posted by kingofthehill

Perhaps it is worthwhile remembering that the Stern family acquired Patek Philippe in 1932. They may well be interested in selling their equity at an attractive valuation.

Interesting..
Waiting for a century (close) to cash out ..

[kingofthehill]

Originally Posted by msolace

Interesting..
Waiting for a century (close) to cash out ..

I am not sure that it has been a bad operating business in the interim.

[Talisman5755]

Just read the news on Hodinkee. Is there any possibility Rolex could be brought out one day?

[tom2517]

Originally Posted by Talisman5755

Just read the news on Hodinkee. Is there any possibility Rolex could be brought out one day?

Probably only Apple can afford Rolex.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Talisman5755

Just read the news on Hodinkee. Is there any possibility Rolex could be brought out one day?

I love how bloomberg quoted berenberg.
And now hodinkee and others are quoting bloomberg

I get to work im going to call this dude lol

[AK797]

I don't think selling to a conglomerate is the end of the world, and it would not put me off a model I like now, like a 5740 in future just because the ownership has changed. Considerations would be firstly the new designs, and then secondly how the market situation is and how resale is, pretty much the same as now for me. I get more than enough politics in my life with momentous times in both UK and US now that I really don't need to go deep into it in my watch hobby, the price speculation is bad enough. I think this is just gossip as well... which is something I do like.

[teo]

Look at what happen to Panerai. If sold to wrong company they will come out with nonsense models even vintage pieces drop in value.

[ct79]

...jumping on the rumor, I would have to say this:

I read about the so called tax burden in their area, which it was said they complained about. Possible property taxes aside, you pay taxes for profits. Paying those taxes simply means you did alright. There are companies who make the mistake to increase investments they actually do not need, thus dispose of too much capacity, only to save a fraction of those costs in taxes. Patek's new production facility was mentioned in this context as an unnecessary investment driven by that thinking. Right or wrong, only a few people know anyway.

Different point though: I think the Sterns would have earned enough to be well for a very long time. If there is really no successor in place, they could also turn the company over to the workers. Make it a 49 % Stern share and a 51 % worker share at he start. They still benefit economically as of then but less.
This would turn the company over to the employees, which know best how to run that ship. They could remain independent, credible, focused on their work and always with the long term goal in sight: To build better watches than they have done so far.

In Spain's Basque country there is the Mondragón Cooperative. It consists of more than 100 companies, many of them manufacturing, and run by their employees, almost 75000 of them in sum.

I think this cooperative model could be pretty interesting especially for the watch industry or at least could have been, as a lot of them are owned by other companies now. But traditionally speaking, workforces have been consisting of locals, highly trained, which for sure have a lot more motivation to stay with the company they work for than an employee would have in a bigger city, where there are more fields, companies, jobs and possibly also less loyal employers.

Would anyone know, if this has ever been tried in the watch industry, a cooperative with its members being the workforce?

[1William]

I have always admired PP as a brand and they have some interesting watches. We are all aware of the issues with service times and the lack of availability on certain models. I always read articles like this with a grain of salt, but I also realize that sometimes things are not a false story. In the end, I believe the PP people are in business and if the money is right the company can and will be sold. I understand the down side as repeated several times but the upside may be an infusion of capital that will allow for better service times and a higher commitment to maintaining the company and honoring the history without it getting in the way of progress. Maybe not. If you think that a company will pay 7-10 billion for a company and not try to maximize brand value you are mistaken. We will see an increase in production of popular watches and the overinflated market for some watches will be gone as we know it. Not a bad thing, depending on how you look at it.

[danestaff]

Chill everyone

What's the saying, any publicity is good publicity

Or have I got that wrong

[usnwfu]

Originally Posted by msolace

Final nail in the coffin for me too....

I’d welcome it.. I still love their designs and would welcome a 5712 in SS. Don’t care about resale

[GoingPlaces]

In my opinion, should PP sell out it will likely be a private sale to a non-conglomerate. Perhaps a Middle Eastern or European family. I want to believe that a sale of this type would have factors other than bottom line such as preservation of the brand. Are the Sterns willing to allow this cherished brand to dilute itself over a few extra dollars? Maybe to maybe not?

[msolace]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

In my opinion, should PP sell out it will likely be a private sale to a non-conglomerate. Perhaps a Middle Eastern or European family. I want to believe that a sale of this type would have factors other than bottom line such as preservation of the brand. Are the Sterns willing to allow this cherished brand to dilute itself over a few extra dollars? Maybe to maybe not?

For € 10 billion, they just might... Who knows?
Besides, it's definitely looking like a much better deal than letting their kids run the show, who may/may not lead Patek down the road to bankruptcy/insolvency...
We'll see....

[BT1985]

Arguably the biggest asset PP has is intangible (name/heritage/reputation). A potential buyer of PP is fully aware of this and knows it would be financial lunacy to do anything that would be detrimental to the brand reputation. You see this happen constantly in the craft beer market. InBev will buy an independent and let it run almost autonomously but they can help them operate a more efficient business without losing integrity of the product. They know if they change anything the people who buy craft beer will abandon it since the beer snobs have a similar aversion to conglomerates. If one of the major watch conglomerates bought PP it would be as another diversifier to their portfolio, not to water it down. They would most likely rationalize how they allocate production resources to align with market demand but I would imagine it would be at the margin and price increases would be more likely while focusing on cost saving through taking advantage of their economies of scale in marketing and distribution (not production). Bottom line, a conglomerate wouldn’t turn PP into a Hublot or an Omega because they already have one of those.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Xerxes77]

I think it’s just a rumor.
If that it’s real then AP will become in few years the new PP! Because it remain the only one from the holy trinity who are independent! PP decrease in value and will be like VC a great watchmaker who are a great past but not the best future, a watchmaker who sell complicated horologerie but don’t keep is value because all will be industrial and SWATCH GROUP only care about the profit at the end of the year!
Like Breguet, Ulysse Nardin.....
Also Rolex will be a king!
Just my opinion!

[Fat_ninja]

The rumors are around SIHH are a divorce and how the wifes sharess would be disposed. Im going to leave it at that.

[Xerxes77]

Originally Posted by danestaff

Chill everyone

What's the saying, any publicity is good publicity

Or have I got that wrong

+1

[Xerxes77]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

people sometimes want a geneva seal patek vs a patek seal patek. I have to think an independent patek is worth more than a Swatch Patek as a lot of the "value" isnt just the watch. Its the story, the history, the manufacture. You lose all that justification to pay more money on the secondary market at least. Im sure they will still sell at the same retail but they wont hold value as well or increase as much

Agree with you!
And PP become a new VC......unfortunately

[BT1985]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

The rumors are around SIHH are a divorce and how the wifes sharess would be disposed. Im going to leave it at that.

This makes the most sense.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[msolace]

Originally Posted by Xerxes77

I think it’s just a rumor.
If that it’s real then AP will become in few years the new PP! Because it remain the only one from the holy trinity who are independent! PP decrease in value and will be like VC a great watchmaker who are a great past but not the best future, a watchmaker who sell complicated horologerie but don’t keep is value because all will be industrial and SWATCH GROUP only care about the profit at the end of the year!
Like Breguet, Ulysse Nardin.....
Also Rolex will be a king!
Just my opinion!

Totally with you on this, King Rolex will reign supreme in the horological jungle ...
A non-independent is a non-independent, no matter how you look at it, or what the experts try to argue.
No PP for me post sale.