Patek Philippe for sale?

[msolace]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

people sometimes want a geneva seal patek vs a patek seal patek. I have to think an independent patek is worth more than a Swatch Patek as a lot of the "value" isnt just the watch. Its the story, the history, the manufacture. You lose all that justification to pay more money on the secondary market at least. Im sure they will still sell at the same retail but they wont hold value as well or increase as much

Very well said ! Couldn't agree more... despite what the so-called pundits try to argue.
No PP for me post sale

[rw2008]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

The rumors are around SIHH are a divorce and how the wifes sharess would be disposed. Im going to leave it at that.

Makes sense

[Murcielagoboy2]

Didn't make any difference to Ferrari when FIAT acquired them did it?

[daveo5]

Patek Philippe marketing efforts? To me it is basically none existent. Other than the “ passing on to the next generation” photo ads I see no marketing effort.


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[msolace]

More media outlets reporting on the story

[Peterandwatches]

It’s certainly irrational, but I don’t like JLC or ALS as much, because of their ties to a conglomeration. My opinion of PP will also decrease if they are no longer ID.

The funny thing is, I’ve fallen in love with some independent watch makers, and you’d think they would have to be swallowed up at some point with reasonable certainty. That Dufor could be a Swatch in 10 years.

[msolace]

Originally Posted by Peterandwatches

It’s certainly irrational, but I don’t like JLC or ALS as much, because of their ties to a conglomeration. My opinion of PP will also decrease if they are no longer ID.

The funny thing is, I’ve fallen in love with some independent watch makers, and you’d think they would have to be swallowed up at some point with reasonable certainty. That Dufor could be a Swatch in 10 years.

F.P. Journe talked about how they were burning so much cash... and not selling enough watches. For as much as I love the watchmaker, this inevitably is a perfect recipe for disaster.
They too are prone to be gobbled up by either Swatch or LVMH in a decade or so..

[msolace]

Originally Posted by usnwfu

I’d welcome it.. I still love their designs and would welcome a 5712 in SS. Don’t care about resale

The 5712 is an amazing piece by the way ...

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[TheMethod]

If I'm the Stern family, I would sell now while I still can get 8 - 10 Billion, valuation will go lower in the next few years. For fans of PP, unless they sell to the right people, they may turn away from the brand.

[Fat_ninja]

Ill say again...divorce rumors. The original source is berenberg—> bloomberg

Maybe we can play telephone.

[AAP8]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Ill say again...divorce rumors. The original source is berenberg—> bloomberg

Maybe we can play telephone.

If the divorce happens - you are correct the sale will 100% happen - unless his wife would rather just hold onto the equity.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by AAP8

If the divorce happens - you are correct the sale will 100% happen - unless his wife would rather just hold onto the equity.

I have to assume a big co like that can figure out how to structure this.
Maybe the wife stake goes to Private equity etc or something like a working intwrest position like AP owning a portion of Richard Mille.


But longer term...it would open up to total exit.

[np2016]

Thierry Stern should just buy out his wife's stake if she is going to sell it. Then he can keep the entire company to himself.

[BT1985]

Originally Posted by np2016

Thierry Stern should just buy out his wife's stake if she is going to sell it. Then he can keep the entire company to himself.

I doubt he can. Most of his net worth is tied up in the company which is why divorce can often force a liquidity event. He could take on debt or PE as mentioned earlier.


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[Ichiran]

As some have said, Ferrari and Porsche have passed hands but their products remain irresistible. However, I can also recall SAAB, Rover, TVR and some others which have lost popularity or gone away completely after a change in ownership.

Patek makes such good watches across a spectrum of grand complications, complications, sports, ladies and dressy line, and for me, the key concern is what happens if the new management screws up? When a new team comes in, there will always be fresh questions surrounding the quality assurance, volume (which affects exclusivity), and design direction. There are just too many key areas that could go wrong.

Last but not least, I like the Stern's personal touch when it comes to dealing with their customers. They will mail a thank-you letter to your residence after every purchase, send you periodic in-house magazines, and invite you to events/dinners/hands-on. I like all these little thoughtful gestures that go beyond an already fantastic ownership experience.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

As some have said, Ferrari and Porsche have passed hands but their products remain irresistible. However, I can also recall SAAB, Rover, TVR and some others which have lost popularity or gone away completely after a change in ownership.

Patek makes such good watches across a spectrum of grand complications, complications, sports, ladies and dressy line, and for me, the key concern is what happens if the new management screws up? When a new team comes in, there will always be fresh questions surrounding the quality assurance, volume (which affects exclusivity), and design direction. There are just too many key areas that could go wrong...

The other thing is what will replace Patek? AP and Lange are not rightly positioned to really challenge Patek's name supremacy or range of products. Unless the new owner were to make some terrible decisions then I think Patek's position is assured.

It would be ironic if it turns out the whole problem was because you can't pass on the Patek Brand to the next generation or even the missus.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by AK797

The other thing is what will replace Patek? AP and Lange are not rightly positioned to really challenge Patek's name supremacy or range of products. Unless the new owner were to make some terrible decisions then I think Patek's position is assured.

It would be ironic if it turns out the whole problem was because you can't pass on the Patek Brand to the next generation or even the missus.

That's an excellent point. I have nowhere else to go if Patek turns into Hublot (no disrespect, but I just could not connect with Hublot's design language).

I'm having a terrible headache....

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

That's an excellent point. I have nowhere else to go if Patek turns into Hublot (no disrespect, but I just could not connect with Hublot's design language).

I'm having a terrible headache....

Who-blows?

[MinhPham]

What if Chinese people buy PP THEN doing mass production of Nautilus?
☠️

[tom2517]

Originally Posted by BT1985

I doubt he can. Most of his net worth is tied up in the company which is why divorce can often force a liquidity event. He could take on debt or PE as mentioned earlier.


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Whatever reason the Stern the family is considering selling Patek (if at all) aside, but lets assume it is true due to divorce, and I am not familiar with Swiss laws, but I thought TS met his wife while she was working at Patek, so how much stake could she have claimed that it would force TS sell Patek?

[BT1985]

Originally Posted by tom2517

Whatever reason the Stern the family is considering selling Patek (if at all) aside, but lets assume it is true due to divorce, and I am not familiar with Swiss laws, but I thought TS met his wife while she was working at Patek, so how much stake could she have claimed that it would force TS sell Patek?

I am not saying it would force him to sell. I am just saying he most likely can’t afford to buy her ownership stake outright without taking on outside money since a great deal of his net worth is tied up in his ownership stake.


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[tom2517]

Originally Posted by BT1985

I am not saying it would force him to sell. I am just saying he most likely can’t afford to buy her ownership stake outright without taking on outside money since a great deal of his net worth is tied up in his ownership stake.


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Yeah but that's what I meant? What kind of ownership could she have gotten that TS could't afford just pay her off? It's not like she started Patek with TS, she married into it. I have a friend who just gotten a divorce, he is worth around 500M but just need to pay the wife 3M.

So that's why I am wondering how the Swiss law works?

[Carry The Interest]

I don't know the particulars of how a divorce would play out under Swiss law. For the sake argument and simplicity, say she took half of his economic ownership. Firstly, there may be measures in place (at the parent Patek company) that could stop her from forcing a sale of the company. There also may be measures in place where she can be stopped from selling her interest of the company (e.g., cannot be done without unanimous consent), measures where others have the right to purchase her interest before anyone else (ROFO or ROFR provisions), etc.

For the sake of argument, say she could force a sale. I've actually worked on a few transactions like this. Albeit, they have all been on a smaller scale (think closer to the $500M-$1B valuation range). Seen a few different situations - everything from an outright sale to a partnership with founder/owner. The latter is more interesting. In short, he probably can't take her out alone by lining up the necessary financing. He could potentially find a financial partner who could pony up the cash to buy out the selling interest. The make-up of that cash is a mix of cash from the financial partner and financing from a bank. Different circumstances and motivation, but similar mechanics to when the Nordstrom family was considering taking the company private last year (they contribute their significant ownership stake and PE buyer tenders the remaining shares with cash coming from themselves and debt financing).

[superdog]

I hope you guys stop buying Pateks if this happens.

Maybe then I can get a 5164.

[tom2517]

Originally Posted by superdog

I hope you guys stop buying Pateks if this happens.

Maybe then I can get a 5164.

Based on the responses here, you should pray the rumor is true.

[APAP]

Originally Posted by Carry The Interest

I don't know the particulars of how a divorce would play out under Swiss law. For the sake argument and simplicity, say she took half of his economic ownership. Firstly, there may be measures in place (at the parent Patek company) that could stop her from forcing a sale of the company. There also may be measures in place where she can be stopped from selling her interest of the company (e.g., cannot be done without unanimous consent), measures where others have the right to purchase her interest before anyone else (ROFO or ROFR provisions), etc.

For the sake of argument, say she could force a sale. I've actually worked on a few transactions like this. Albeit, they have all been on a smaller scale (think closer to the $500M-$1B valuation range). Seen a few different situations - everything from an outright sale to a partnership with founder/owner. The latter is more interesting. In short, he probably can't take her out alone by lining up the necessary financing. He could potentially find a financial partner who could pony up the cash to buy out the selling interest. The make-up of that cash is a mix of cash from the financial partner and financing from a bank. Different circumstances and motivation, but similar mechanics to when the Nordstrom family was considering taking the company private last year (they contribute their significant ownership stake and PE buyer tenders the remaining shares with cash coming from themselves and debt financing).

Where is Harvey when you need him

[tom2517]

Originally Posted by APAP

Where is Harvey when you need him

He probably worked on my friend's case lol.

[APAP]

She sure for the short end of that stick

[AAP8]

Originally Posted by APAP

She sure for the short end of that stick

Really? She married a man whose parents had a business, then worked at the business - sure she deserves something - but its not the short end of any stick. In theory Jeff Bezo's wife has done more his success that Stern's wife, since Stern didn't really create anything, just runs it.

[tom2517]

Originally Posted by AAP8

Really? She married a man whose parents had a business, then worked at the business - sure she deserves something - but its not the short end of any stick. In theory Jeff Bezo's wife has done more his success that Stern's wife, since Stern didn't really create anything, just runs it.

Actually I believe she was an employee of Patek, that’s how TS met her.

Bezo’s case is different because she and Jeff started the business.

And finally APAP was referring to my post, where I have a friend who is worth around 500M but only had to pay 3M for the divorce. She married into money, so in Taiwan she isn’t entitled to much. That’s why APAP said she got the short end of the stick.