Will the AP hype die like Hublot or Panerai?

[Nadi090]

Market value and trends are never static and so difficult to predict. So enjoy what you have when you can.

[benlee]

I dont think that will happen to AP in the forseeable future as the brand equity is a lot higher.

[yachty 1]

Buy it, Wear the fu!k out of it and enjoy it. At the end of the day it's a luxury item. It's nice when they hold there value but you cant expect it esp if they're well worn!!

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

Yes. You could’ve scooped up a 15300/15400 RO for 12-13k. 15202 was always a little higher but still less around or less than MSRP

That was only 25% off relative to retail. I negotiated 25% in NYC on a 15400 and it was roughly 13300.

AP is nothing like hublot or panerai.

[RHIII]

Originally Posted by SMD

Yes. They will plummet. Best to stick to batmans and batgirls and hulks.

love it


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[PPFANBOY]

Hate to burst your bubble but Hublot hype is actually up. That's if you measure hype by something tangible like.... Oh I don't know sales figures.

[JayG]

No chance. AP is in the sweet spot.

[_speedmaster_]

Certain models.

[superstarmar]

I think so...

[macrowatch]

If what another poster said was true, which was capacity is increasing by 15% AND what we know is already true of the huge price hike recently, then maybe my last post was wrong and AP may be making the Panerai mistakes.

[NYG1121]

Originally Posted by GB-man

That was only 25% off relative to retail. I negotiated 25% in NYC on a 15400 and it was roughly 13300.

AP is nothing like hublot or panerai.

Ya that’s the point. Think about this being not that long ago

[GGGMT]

Dunno. Not keen any of these brands.


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[Reign]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

If what another poster said was true, which was capacity is increasing by 15% AND what we know is already true of the huge price hike recently, then maybe my last post was wrong and AP may be making the Panerai mistakes.

I think it will be fine. They are increasing from 40k to 44k watches this year. FHB said that demand was ~47-48k watches p.a. - between the production hike and price increase, they’re just recalibrating demand. You can’t just run on this aura of infinite demand and no supply forever and not annoy prospective buyers, at some point you actually need some pieces for clients to try on.

[jdkrut]

No one know but panerai and hublot were doing quite well (and frankly hublot still does really well) but then they overproduced and overexposed themselves. AP has gone in the opposite direction. As long as they continue to control production and distribution, they should be ok.

[Fort Rolex]

I think AP has worked very hard the last few years to tone down the gimmicks and focus on producing great watches. Paid partnerships are fine when your roster fits your brand but AP got it all wrong with giving individuals their own special edition watches (Shaq 3-2 switch, Arnold, etc). IMO it brought down the image for a period. I’m a firm believe that brands should have them in regular production pieces if anything but that’s a whole other convo

Now, the existing SS watch bonanza brought the RO back to the top tier of desirability and they seem to be using it as a springboard to focus on what they do best, rehab the image, get supply under control with their own boutiques, and firm up their value. Seem to be getting it right but only time will tell

[redsubby]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

Ya that’s the point. Think about this being not that long ago

I bought 15300 from AD for USD8000 tax included but this was long time ago. About 7-8 years ago traded for a 15400 for around $11500 from grey. Both brand new.

[V25V]

AP is nothing like those others, as has been noted by several others. But, I do think AP is going in the wrong direction with their styling/size/etc. There is absolutely nothing in their current offering which is of interest to me.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by V25V

AP is nothing like those others, as has been noted by several others. But, I do think AP is going in the wrong direction with their styling/size/etc. There is absolutely nothing in their current offering which is of interest to me.

Not even the ceramic skeleton?

[V25V]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Not even the ceramic skeleton?

Nope. I have found the 41mm just too big in the RO line. In the ROO, 42 fits better since the bezel is so thick. On the RO, it just seems way too large to me. If they did more of these in 39mm, I would be tempted by many of them. A newer 15305? Yes please.

[Monty22]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

Dunno. Not keen any of these brands.


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Including AP? If so, what gives? Just killing time?


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[rumnyc]

here is my take on this. its the chinese (and not in a racist way). china created a lot of new rich people (this is simply true) and they entered the lux market and slowly the number climbed up over the last decade. a lot of them entered via tag->omega->rolex to panerai and hublot and the problem atleast with panerai was they were introducing too many new models every year with every combination of nostaliga possible which diluted all the special models (there are so mani cali dial/bronzo/patina dial/in every combination possible). hublot i never got. they make a half price ROO and a 1/4 price RM. i can't ever imagine spending money on either.

the bump we see is the asians enterting the market and climbing from the 10-25k watch range to the 25-50k in large numbers. this will stabilize and unless indian or kenyans or brazilians catch up to the 25-50k in large numbers (unlikely for another decade or 2) the slack the growth will stop.

AP and PP can manage to survive by not increasing production of the core models and they know it. AP this year will increase production by 2500pcs but its all code (or so i have heard). the only way AP and PP will stay ahead is to limit production and the only way they can do it is by staying independent becuase if they get bought they will go the panerai way chasing quarterly and yearly sales figures and increasing production of RO/ROO.

so i think the growth will slow but not accelerate. most people who can pay 80 for nautilus 5711 or 50k for a 15202st already have one (or two).

[rumnyc]

Originally Posted by V25V

Nope. I have found the 41mm just too big in the RO line. In the ROO, 42 fits better since the bezel is so thick. On the RO, it just seems way too large to me. If they did more of these in 39mm, I would be tempted by many of them. A newer 15305? Yes please.

have you tried the 44mm? a 44mm sits flatter and better for me than the 42mm ROO which i wrote off years ago as being to bulky. Ti also makes it much lighter and less lumpy.

[AK797]

They have been hyped from day one in a way, price of $3K for a SS watch was outlandish back in 72, so they have always known how to get the people coming in, ofc they did have Genta and the deepsea diver's helmet inspiration back then, no such luck with the Code.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by rumnyc

here is my take on this. its the chinese (and not in a racist way). china created a lot of new rich people (this is simply true) and they entered the lux market and slowly the number climbed up over the last decade. a lot of them entered via tag->omega->rolex to panerai and hublot and the problem atleast with panerai was they were introducing too many new models every year with every combination of nostaliga possible which diluted all the special models (there are so mani cali dial/bronzo/patina dial/in every combination possible). hublot i never got. they make a half price ROO and a 1/4 price RM. i can't ever imagine spending money on either.

the bump we see is the asians enterting the market and climbing from the 10-25k watch range to the 25-50k in large numbers. this will stabilize and unless indian or kenyans or brazilians catch up to the 25-50k in large numbers (unlikely for another decade or 2) the slack the growth will stop.

AP and PP can manage to survive by not increasing production of the core models and they know it. AP this year will increase production by 2500pcs but its all code (or so i have heard). the only way AP and PP will stay ahead is to limit production and the only way they can do it is by staying independent becuase if they get bought they will go the panerai way chasing quarterly and yearly sales figures and increasing production of RO/ROO.

so i think the growth will slow but not accelerate. most people who can pay 80 for nautilus 5711 or 50k for a 15202st already have one (or two).

It's not just the Chinese, there has also been bull money markets, Crypto, Brexit, QE, all have conspired to raise demand into a classic price/demand/price spiral for the 3 hot brands, and for other luxuries.

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by Monty22

Including AP? If so, what gives? Just killing time?


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Funny and a fair question! Yes, bored and whiling away some time.


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[RolyMoly]

Originally Posted by Token74

This


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This.

[justin.meridabikes]

Hublot's sales have been rapidly going up, taking away market share from rolex at the sub 10k segment and younger customers as well. Resale value of any AP other than ref numbers starting with 15xxx are horrible as well. ROO chronos easily get 30% of their retail price knocked out at preowned prices, similar to most hublots

[DoctorA]

Here’s why I don’t think it’s a hype that will die:
1- With only 40,000 Units produced annually, the demand will always stay above supply! Hublot and penarai they produced close to million units each!
2- the attention to details, craftsmanship and quality is top notch, arguably one of the top two, along with Patek
3- it speaks to a large market, the watch enthusiast community, the “hype” followers, and the pop followers so no matter where things shift, it will continue to have a large demand
4- like rolex, Patek, ASL.... it’s a stand along company, which makes it far away from “mass production” unlike some other brands!

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by DoctorA

Here’s why I don’t think it’s a hype that will die:
1- With only 40,000 Units produced annually, the demand will always stay above supply! Hublot and penarai they produced close to million units each!
2- the attention to details, craftsmanship and quality is top notch, arguably one of the top two, along with Patek
3- it speaks to a large market, the watch enthusiast community, the “hype” followers, and the pop followers so no matter where things shift, it will continue to have a large demand
4- like rolex, Patek, ASL.... it’s a stand along company, which makes it far away from “mass production” unlike some other brands!

Agree with everything here. Except I’d remove Rolex. They aren’t mass produced?


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[nosignalbmwdriver]

Looks like the gold sub is a safer bet