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Old 21 February 2020, 02:43 PM   #91
francoamerican
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I wonder how wealthy the typical grey market/second-hand buyer of 5711, 5168g-010, or 5164a etc is. - to spend $60-80K on a current production patek sports watch?


(I would definitely put rolex steal at 5k-10K premiums in a complete different league - i can imagine many people can justify those)
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Old 21 February 2020, 02:46 PM   #92
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Anecdotally from flippers - market is a lot softer now than December.

Once you can't walk out of an AD and double your money, they'll start calling down waiting lists and have a lot of people declining (not to mention the dreamers), then I think we'll be back to reasonable wait times at least on Subs and maybe GMTs.
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Old 21 February 2020, 02:53 PM   #93
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I wonder how wealthy the typical grey market/second-hand buyer of 5711, 5168g-010, or 5164a etc is. - to spend $60-80K on a current production patek sports watch?


(I would definitely put rolex steal at 5k-10K premiums in a complete different league - i can imagine many people can justify those)
It is cheaper than bundling at MSRP. Ex. Bundling a 5524G/R at MSRP to get a 5167A... A 5167A from a gray would save you much more $, albeit you won't have that "RELATIONSHIP" built with an AD.
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Old 21 February 2020, 07:33 PM   #94
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Lets not even mention bubble again never.
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Old 21 February 2020, 07:39 PM   #95
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Lets not even mention bubble again never.
Eqqsquizitine Buble-Schwinslow
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Old 21 February 2020, 07:40 PM   #96
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It is cheaper than bundling at MSRP. Ex. Bundling a 5524G/R at MSRP to get a 5167A... A 5167A from a gray would save you much more $, albeit you won't have that "RELATIONSHIP" built with an AD.
Perhaps. But you do end up with two watches that way, unless you despise the 5524.
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Old 21 February 2020, 08:02 PM   #97
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Perhaps. But you do end up with two watches that way, unless you despise the 5524.
I dont think many who bundle does. Unworn pieces are getting asked at $US 32-34k (not in TRF), which probably meant that they are getting sold at lower prices...

If you net the market prices of those two watches... Well, you get the drift...
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Old 21 February 2020, 10:27 PM   #98
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Bubbles are typically defined after the fact - e.g., after some event causes deflation.

Otherwise, what some call a bubble just resembles a hockey stick in terms of the “new normal”.


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Old 22 February 2020, 12:32 AM   #99
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Indeed. To be honest, if you look hard enough, you can find a Dato Up/Down for less than the "grey market value" of a 5711 Blue.

And, if you go with a slightly older Dato (no Up/Down) you can get it for slightly above half the price of a grey market 5711 Blue.

It's crazy.
Lange chronos are really good bang for the buck. I’ve been thinking of picking up the 1815 chrono.
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Old 22 February 2020, 07:40 AM   #100
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Lange chronos are really good bang for the buck. I’ve been thinking of picking up the 1815 chrono.
Indeed. The 1815 Chrono is such a beauty, as well.
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Old 23 February 2020, 10:56 AM   #101
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Lange (Lange 1) if you bought used 2 years ago. The price has risen by 10-20%.
It performs better than most Patek dress watches ( calatrava or world time ).
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Old 23 February 2020, 10:59 AM   #102
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Lange (Lange 1) if you bought used 2 years ago. The price has risen by 10-20%.
It performs better than most Patek dress watches ( calatrava or world time ).
Lange 1, perhaps. Though I haven't really been monitoring the "base" Lange 1 market.

But none of the other more complicated ones. You can still get a Dato for an incredibly low price.
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Old 23 February 2020, 06:23 PM   #103
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I wondering if people thought they were in the middle of a real estate bubble prior 2007?
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Old 23 February 2020, 06:34 PM   #104
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The bubble burst if there is no core value , just inflated price. Goods value much higher than the value of cash.
Today everything is so expensive, the government all over the world printing huge sums of money. This makes money worthless.
Today the cash value is much less than the goods. If you know what I mean.
Its the opposite of bubble.
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Old 23 February 2020, 06:36 PM   #105
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I wondering if people thought they were in the middle of a real estate bubble prior 2007?
I did in 2005. Does that count?
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Old 23 February 2020, 06:53 PM   #106
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In 2008 - 2009 it was mainly the corporation that pushes the debt over the limit. Anyone can borrow to buy a home regardless of their income



Today the amount you can borrow to buy real estate is tied to how much income tax you have paid. Not how much asset you can provide to the bank. Which is somewhat looks much healthier.

However another equation is Government seems over spending and continue to do so. And when they can not meet obligations , they print more money which cause prices to increase, some people see it as bubble.
Will it burst? As long as government all over the world still prints money to finance their obligations I see price will likely keep on increasing. Look at stock price of companies that barely make profit, they skyrocket. Look at price of foods , electricty, gas they skyrocket. Infact today if any basic commodities price that do not increase it means it has been manipulated.

Is there alternatives? Well no, we can only hope price not to rise too fast. But it will keep on rising. But price rising (real estate, stock market , commodities) is not due to optimism or someone with some speculative plan to rig the price up. It is purely because governments around the world over spending and printing money. Especially China expansion with their Belt Road initiative and also European Union plan to create great European single market to challenge USA or China dominance ; USA plan to put America as priority makes America Great Again, revitalise their ailing industry; all these honourable goals seem requires endless amount of money which not available and so it will largely financed through printing money.

With UK going out of single European market, means Germany and France have to pump in more cash which I don’t think they have any. So they will print more money to prevent single European market from collapsing.

As long as governments continue printing money, every thing will be more expensive, real estate , stock market, commodities, luxury watches prices all will rise even you have recessions or depressions. Company may bankrupt, massive layoff and economic collapse but price will still rise no matter what happens.
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Old 23 February 2020, 11:52 PM   #107
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If you want to hedge inflation there are much better ways than wristwatches.
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Old 24 February 2020, 06:25 AM   #108
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If you want to hedge inflation there are much better ways than wristwatches.
An understatement indeed!
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Old 24 February 2020, 06:24 PM   #109
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If you want to hedge inflation there are much better ways than wristwatches.
Like what? Can you give me an example?
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Old 24 February 2020, 07:46 PM   #110
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Like what? Can you give me an example?
Yes please. . .
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Old 24 February 2020, 10:13 PM   #111
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Like what? Can you give me an example?


REITS , TIPS, reinvesting dividends and other capital immediately, honestly hedging inflation with almost anything more stable than jewelry would be better. Far too much unsystematic risk using watches as an instrument for investment.

Brokering watch sales in one thing. Buying with the intent to capture gains is a whole different idea and a silly one.
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Old 25 February 2020, 12:13 AM   #112
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If the coronavirus takes down the global economy (as seems likely) and world markets drop by more than a simple correction (as also seems likely, particularly in the U.S.) we will see whether certain stainless steel sportwatches are a storehouse of value or are in a bubble (my guess is the latter).
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Old 25 February 2020, 03:00 AM   #113
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If the coronavirus takes down the global economy (as seems likely) and world markets drop by more than a simple correction (as also seems likely, particularly in the U.S.) we will see whether certain stainless steel sportwatches are a storehouse of value or are in a bubble (my guess is the latter).

Agreed. Interestingly, there are small signs of price decreases on PP Rolex SS on C24, and they don’t seem to be moving. Quite a few 116500 (black dial) at $20k, and they’re not moving.


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Old 25 February 2020, 03:12 AM   #114
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The fact that it’s even debated that watches are a quality store of value at 1.5-2x msrp is hilarious.

I can only imagine the panic selling that’s occurring today. I would bet DavidSW, WatchBox, Watchfinder, European watch etc inboxes are jammed with people offering to sell stuff they overpaid for.

The only question I have is are they buying, if so what and at what price.
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Old 25 February 2020, 03:19 AM   #115
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The fact that it’s even debated that watches are a quality store of value at 1.5-2x msrp is hilarious.

I can only imagine the panic selling that’s occurring today. I would bet DavidSW, WatchBox, Watchfinder, European watch etc inboxes are jammed with people offering to sell stuff they overpaid for.

The only question I have is are they buying, if so what and at what price.
Agree
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Old 25 February 2020, 03:36 AM   #116
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If anyone bought at the then high price levels in 2018 for SS “high demand” models - and socked them away for future gain - then they might sell off a few Daytonas below the 2020 market price and still make money.

That would make it appear like a softening market methinks.


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Old 25 February 2020, 07:23 AM   #117
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REITS , TIPS, reinvesting dividends and other capital immediately, honestly hedging inflation with almost anything more stable than jewelry would be better. Far too much unsystematic risk using watches as an instrument for investment.

Brokering watch sales in one thing. Buying with the intent to capture gains is a whole different idea and a silly one.
I know a lot of investors who own TIPS and none of them are making out particularly well. Sacrificing current yield for a call feature on future inflation has been a real loser for the last ten years.
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Old 25 February 2020, 07:29 AM   #118
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Agreed. Interestingly, there are small signs of price decreases on PP Rolex SS on C24, and they don’t seem to be moving. Quite a few 116500 (black dial) at $20k, and they’re not moving.


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There's one at $20K, next lowest is $20,845 no B+P.
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Old 25 February 2020, 07:32 AM   #119
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I know a lot of investors who own TIPS and none of them are making out particularly well. Sacrificing current yield for a call feature on future inflation has been a real loser for the last ten years.


I was merely naming instruments that are more suited to the job than buying rolex. I’m not saying they are appropriate for every situation.

My personal go to would be real estate but not everyone is up for the second job that is being a landlord.
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Old 25 February 2020, 07:34 AM   #120
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If the coronavirus takes down the global economy (as seems likely) and world markets drop by more than a simple correction (as also seems likely, particularly in the U.S.) we will see whether certain stainless steel sportwatches are a storehouse of value or are in a bubble (my guess is the latter).
If the corona virus takes down the global economy, what is it that you think will be a store of value? Will it be shown that all assets except, ironically, bonds were in a bubble? Nothing will survive an economic nuclear explosion. We learned that in 2009.
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