Watches aside, what’s your take on the future of our Economy?

[edisonstar23]

Are we heading to another recession? Am I the only one shocked the current state of our economy? At the beginning of the pandemic, I thought that we were going to be in trouble economically, however the exact opposite happened at least within my circle. I had the best 2 years in terms of net worth growth.

But with all these additional cash, I wanted to make some investments to realize that everything has doubled or increased drastically in price. Real estate had a 20% appreciation over the last 2 years- gladly I found a deal and took advantage for Low interest rates.

I went to buy a car, and I’ve always liked getting 2-3 year old cars because of depreciation. However I ended up buying a new car because the used cars were only 2-3 grand apart.

So clearly the demand has increased and people are much much wealthier than ever. I think the government quantitative easing went out of hand and now I’m wondering what’s to come???


Any thoughts?


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[ExplorerI]

Consistently high inflation, fed increasing interest rates until something breaks in a year or two. In the near term corporate profits look good and continue to increase. Volatility around Russia passes.

[BroncoOne]

Tax increases as long as the current regime is in place. They have to kick people when they are down or up.

[enjoythemusic]

Grab your ankles... and worse still the stores are out of lube so take it 'like a man'.

Avoid central bank currencies, they are well-proven guaranteed losers (history proves this time and again, as few realize the USA is on their third central banking scheme today, the first two didn't do so well).

Food For Thought: The Federal Reserve's Debt Dollar product has lost over 96%(!) of its buying power since its inception.

Depending on your adversity to certain risk factors... Find location(s) that are self-sustaining with a welcoming warm community (or alone-ish on a self-sustaining island if you so choose).

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Grab your ankles... and worse still the stores are out of lube so take it 'like a man'.

Avoid central bank currencies, they are well-proven guaranteed losers (history proves this time and again, as few realize the USA is on their third central banking scheme today, the first two didn't do so well).

Food For Thought: The Federal Reserve's Debt Dollar product has lost over 96%(!) of its buying power since its inception.

Depending on your adversity to certain risk factors... Find location(s) that are self-sustaining with a welcoming warm community (or alone-ish on a self-sustaining island if you so choose).

And that’s putting it lightly. If you really want to know, just read it. Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum has already laid out the plan.

[AzPaul]

.

[GoingPlaces]

Zero gravity economy feels like. Everything that should be happening isn't. Who knows anymore and who saw any of this coming?

Printing money like crazy has its cost, only questions is when.

[edisonstar23]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Grab your ankles... and worse still the stores are out of lube so take it 'like a man'.

Avoid central bank currencies, they are well-proven guaranteed losers (history proves this time and again, as few realize the USA is on their third central banking scheme today, the first two didn't do so well).

Food For Thought: The Federal Reserve's Debt Dollar product has lost over 96%(!) of its buying power since its inception.

Depending on your adversity to certain risk factors... Find location(s) that are self-sustaining with a welcoming warm community (or alone-ish on a self-sustaining island if you so choose).

I pass on the self sustainable - i love the United States even with their political bs.


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[Chewbacca]

Rolexeses and crypto.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by pickettt

And that’s putting it lightly. If you really want to know, just read it. Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum has already laid out the plan.

I like you just because of this. Notwithstanding all of the other smart stuff you say

That's a skull and bones society right there.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

I pass on the self sustainable - i love the United States even with their political bs.


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That makes half of us!

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

I pass on the self sustainable - i love the United States even with their political bs.

If i may ask, what other countries have you loved within, and for how long?

[Star Ferry]

I like the "Great Recession" era South Park episode where everyone prays to The Economy like it's an all-powerful deity that will decide their fate.

Economists are the new Rasputins

[TswaneNguni]

When money is around,save it
When money is scarce,push it .

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

Are we heading to another recession? Am I the only one shocked the current state of our economy? At the beginning of the pandemic, I thought that we were going to be in trouble economically, however the exact opposite happened at least within my circle. I had the best 2 years in terms of net worth growth.

But with all these additional cash, I wanted to make some investments to realize that everything has doubled or increased drastically in price. Real estate had a 20% appreciation over the last 2 years- gladly I found a deal and took advantage for Low interest rates.

I went to buy a car, and I’ve always liked getting 2-3 year old cars because of depreciation. However I ended up buying a new car because the used cars were only 2-3 grand apart.

So clearly the demand has increased and people are much much wealthier than ever. I think the government quantitative easing went out of hand and now I’m wondering what’s to come???


Any thoughts?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I highlighted 2 parts of your post to comment specifically. The first is because most people's net worth went up in the past 2 years (asset bubbles) regardless of you were invested in real estate, stock market, cyropto, watches etc.

The 2nd point is that a lot of people were questioning the QE and it was being handed out to people/entities that didn't need the funds to say nothing about the unmitigated fraud that took place. When Universities like Harvard, Yale, Princeton etc with endowments in the billions of dollars and business entities like the Los Angeles Lakers are getting handouts from the government, there's a serious problem.

Like a fat, drunken member in the movie the "Hangover" what's ahead of us now is the pain we all have to pay for the excesses of last night.

BTW, we've only spoken about the fiscal polices but let's not dismiss the damage a loose monetary policy the Federal Reserve has created with no only rates at zero, but the unprecedented purchases of corporate bonds. The Fed is WAY BEHIND THE CURVE in terms of raising rates to combat inflation and me thinks that next months rate hike should be at minimum .5 with several more to go despite the current market conditions.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

The Fed is WAY BEHIND THE CURVE in terms of raising rates to combat inflation and me thinks that next months rate hike should be at minimum .5 with several more to go despite the current market conditions.

Shouldn't the Fed be at ~8% right now? Why isn't the Fed posting rates as appropriate to the same level? What would 8% do to debt repayment?

[Stranger]

I think we're going to have inflation, maybe stagflation for a while. The Fed might say they'll raise rates, but the US cannot service its debt if the rates go up materially (to be fair, neither can most other countries).

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Shouldn't the Fed be at ~8% right now? Why isn't the Fed posting rates as appropriate to the same level? What would 8% do to debt repayment?

I don't know about 8% but if loan repayments are adjustable then there will be a lot of pain in the form of debt repayment. I don't see as many adjustable rate loans on residential real estate as there was during the financial crisis of 2008. Commercial property loans will feel a sting coupled with the already low vacancy rates they have due to the pandemic in most office space and some retail. Once short term rates start to rise, however, auto loans coupled with the high price of vehicles already in place will hurt. And naturally revolving debt is going to hurt those that don't pay their cc every month.

If you add up the pandemic, geo/political issues, the NASDAQ closing just .2% away from a bear market, inflation, it's a perfect storm of horrible economic conditions. The only saving grace is the fact that the labor market is good.

[flyboyyy]

The Fed has painted themselves in a bad corner right now. If energy prices continue to go up due to conflict overseas (and our own politicians hobbling domestic production), coupled with domestic inflation as a whole - all staring down an uncertain equities market and overall economy...the Fed is pretty much out of levers to pull with any reasonable effect. Rates should have gone up long ago, but the politicians were/are still hesitant to do so.

25-50 points at the next meeting? Ya, that'll help! The old "too little too late" thought comes to mind.

That said, others are right. Nothing is behaving in the way any economist had/has predicted (macro or micro). Markets, Consumer Spending, Inflation, Assets, Precious Metals, etc.. are all out of whack in all sorts of ways from a traditional viewpoint.

It is however, clear that Yellen & Powell are not Volker & Greenspan.

[OYptL]

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

I don't know about 8% but if loan repayments are adjustable then there will be a lot of pain in the form of debt repayment. I don't see as many adjustable rate loans on residential real estate as there was during the financial crisis of 2008. Commercial property loans will feel a sting coupled with the already low vacancy rates they have due to the pandemic in most office space and some retail.

Agreed.

But, if I may say, what financial firm has been buying quite a bit of RE? Do they have a 'partner' helping them with this financial 'investment', with 'strong hands' to survive any monetary situation on their balance sheets? But that's my speculation-ish.

Regardless, let's thank Truckers because if they stop for some reason it won't be pretty.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

Are we heading to another recession? Am I the only one shocked the current state of our economy? At the beginning of the pandemic, I thought that we were going to be in trouble economically, however the exact opposite happened at least within my circle. I had the best 2 years in terms of net worth growth.

But with all these additional cash, I wanted to make some investments to realize that everything has doubled or increased drastically in price. Real estate had a 20% appreciation over the last 2 years- gladly I found a deal and took advantage for Low interest rates.

I went to buy a car, and I’ve always liked getting 2-3 year old cars because of depreciation. However I ended up buying a new car because the used cars were only 2-3 grand apart.

So clearly the demand has increased and people are much much wealthier than ever. I think the government quantitative easing went out of hand and now I’m wondering what’s to come???


Any thoughts?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The economy will be just fine. Corrections will occur as normal. No worries if you stay the course. I’m spending my time on things I can control.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Agreed.

But, if I may say, what financial firm has been buying quite a bit of RE? Do they have a 'partner' helping them with this financial 'investment', with 'strong hands' to survive any monetary situation on their balance sheets? But that's my speculation-ish.

Regardless, let's thank Truckers because if they stop for some reason it won't be pretty.

The reason is because assets are literally everything right now.

[Time Out]

Like anything, pay debt down or off. Invest in the most solid assets you can.

Glad I paid all my stuff off in 2018. Almost recession proof at this point.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Time Out

Like anything, pay debt down or off. Invest in the most solid assets you can.

Glad I paid all my stuff off in 2018. Almost recession proof at this point.

What's your opinion on fixed rate debt at 2.74%?

In a strong inflationary environment this inflates away as you owe someone something that is worthless. In deflation you've got let's say low 6 digits in cheap cash to buy low into whatever asset you like.

[swils8610]

In a word…POOR


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[Moondoggy]

Stuffed.

I like many here my net worth has gone up immensely last two years, however the markets I am in, so has everyone elses.

No point being part of the market you need to be ahead of it for true net gain.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by Time Out

Like anything, pay debt down or off. Invest in the most solid assets you can.

Glad I paid all my stuff off in 2018. Almost recession proof at this point.

Im glad I refinanced in late 2020 to 2.875% 30yr FRM and didn’t pay off a dime. A fixed rate mortgage is the best inflation hedge most people can get.

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by EEpro

What's your opinion on fixed rate debt at 2.74%?

In a strong inflationary environment this inflates away as you owe someone something that is worthless. In deflation you've got let's say low 6 digits in cheap cash to buy low into whatever asset you like.

It makes sense but I have to sleep at night. Wife and I being self employed, owning our own businesses, the big money we make feels like it wont last forever.

In my head, a million owed at 0% is still a million owed.

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

Im glad I refinanced in late 2020 to 2.875% 30yr FRM and didn’t pay off a dime. A fixed rate mortgage is the best inflation hedge most people can get.

I agree but I hate owing money. I know I wont ever own a jet with my mindset but I accept that. I'm very OK with slow, solid growth.