5167a-001

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by m3tek44

Honestly don’t waste your time rather go with other brand/models (seiko, omega, etc) or pay the premium with grey. Life is too short.

Here ^^^^^^ is the answer to your question. The combined thousands of years of experience in the watch market provided by members of this forum all agree: no chance you will get one from a dealer (okay, maybe one in a million but still way worse than your chance of dying of Covid, 1/500), in order to get rid of you some dealers will tell you that they will put you on the list, the best way to get an allocated watch is to go Grey.

[ap1]

Originally Posted by brkn

the truth hurts

guess I'll just inquire for a 15500st

You could always just get a 116500

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by ap1

You could always just get a 116500

GOOD JOKE
Maybe consider a 5711 too

[SL BRABUS]

There still hope if you are a celebrity...

[brkn]

Originally Posted by ap1

You could always just get a 116500

okay I get the joke but aren't there posts here claiming they received a 15500st in 3 months with no prior purchases?

[scurfa]

Originally Posted by brkn

okay I get the joke but aren't there posts here claiming they received a 15500st in 3 months with no prior purchases?

I’m not sure if this is the case but what is happening now is what matters to you, demand is off the scale and resale value of most hot models is crazy, shop staff who only recently could decide who got what have had that power stripped away.


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[Xerxes77]

Small chance in this craziness

[azizu]

Originally Posted by brkn

Sorry if this is silly but I couldn't find any recent posts about this. Is there any chance of being allocated this model from a boutique with zero purchase history? Willing wait until mid 2024 - early 2025.

Are you open to other references?
If the target is to get a Patek then why not consider a Calatrava?
The aquanaut might’ve been popular last few years but by 2025 People could be after something else…..Calatravas perhaps


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[WWC]

I was allocated my first Patek (5167a) without any purchase history within 3 weeks after seeking interest and speaking to my SA. This was however back in 2019.

Things have changed a lot in the market after my 2020 second piece allocation (5712/1A). I recently asked for a third piece (5990/1A) to which my SA said these are tough times and it’s no longer up to her to make it happen.

2019/2020 were crazy years. But nothing compared to now.

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by WWC

I was allocated my first Patek (5167a) without any purchase history within 3 weeks after seeking interest and speaking to my SA. This was however back in 2019.

Things have changed a lot in the market after my 2020 second piece allocation (5712/1A). I recently asked for a third piece (5990/1A) to which my SA said these are tough times and it’s no longer up to her to make it happen.

2019/2020 were crazy years. But nothing compared to now.

Even for 2019-2020 your SA was very thoughtful to allocate you those references. Not sure what your history was with them at the time but I’d still say your SA has looked out for you. Congrats

[Ichiran]

It's probably close to impossible now for someone without any spending unless you know one of the senior guys at Patek who can get one for you.

That said, I haven't seen any 5167 incoming for a long time.

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

It's probably close to impossible now for someone without any spending unless you know one of the senior guys at Patek who can get one for you.

That said, I haven't seen any 5167 incoming for a long time.

That’s a good point. Makes me wonder if we will see a discontinuation. Let’s the rumors begin

[llngoc]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

It's probably close to impossible now for someone without any spending unless you know one of the senior guys at Patek who can get one for you.

That said, I haven't seen any 5167 incoming for a long time.

Mine is supposed to be here in November. Fingers crossed…

[brucethemanlee]

Without spending history ?

There's about a 0.0000435% percent chance you'll get 5167 this year
Your odds improve to 0.0000935% by 2025

For a 15500ST?
I think your odds are better at 0.0027% chance
Your odds improve to 0.0077% chance by 2025

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by LJubel328

That’s a good point. Makes me wonder if we will see a discontinuation. Let’s the rumors begin

The 5167 was released in 2007 and is now in its 14th year. Comparatively the 5711 was launched a year earlier and was now discontinued. I think maybe it is due a renewal soon.

Originally Posted by llngoc

Mine is supposed to be here in November. Fingers crossed…

Hope you get it

[brkn]

Originally Posted by azizu

Are you open to other references?
If the target is to get a Patek then why not consider a Calatrava?
The aquanaut might’ve been popular last few years but by 2025 People could be after something else…..Calatravas perhaps


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I love calatravas, specifically 5227G-010. That would actually be my first choice from Patek but it's unfortunately out of my price range. I'm a college student and the most I can do is around $25k.

[brkn]

Originally Posted by brucethemanlee

Without spending history ?

There's about a 0.0000435% percent chance you'll get 5167 this year
Your odds improve to 0.0000935% by 2025

For a 15500ST?
I think your odds are better at 0.0027% chance
Your odds improve to 0.0077% chance by 2025

yeah i'm pretty sure you're exaggerating the 15500st

[brkn]

Originally Posted by WWC

I was allocated my first Patek (5167a) without any purchase history within 3 weeks after seeking interest and speaking to my SA. This was however back in 2019.

Things have changed a lot in the market after my 2020 second piece allocation (5712/1A). I recently asked for a third piece (5990/1A) to which my SA said these are tough times and it’s no longer up to her to make it happen.

2019/2020 were crazy years. But nothing compared to now.

woah...

[Allanmodel]

I got my 5167/1A without any purchase history and no nothing about PP and got it on the spot....just happened to call 1 of the dealer that day and found he did got 1 left in stock...and have 5% discount on that too! (below US$20K) That is happened in 2016. Lucky Me~~

Hope you've better luck finding one!

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by brucethemanlee

Without spending history ?

There's about a 0.0000435% percent chance you'll get 5167 this year
Your odds improve to 0.0000935% by 2025

For a 15500ST?
I think your odds are better at 0.0027% chance
Your odds improve to 0.0077% chance by 2025

Wow, even worse than np2016's 1/1,000,000 shot.

[llngoc]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

The 5167 was released in 2007 and is now in its 14th year. Comparatively the 5711 was launched a year earlier and was now discontinued. I think maybe it is due a renewal soon.



Hope you get it

If the discontinuation comes in 2022, I would be one luck guy.

My AD already have a confirmed allocation from PP so I guess I am safe unless something drastic happens. (I also paid in full too so he knows I will be displeased if it does not show up)

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

The 5167 was released in 2007 and is now in its 14th year. Comparatively the 5711 was launched a year earlier and was now discontinued. I think maybe it is due a renewal soon.

Oh God! Hope you haven't triggered the intense escalation of grey market prices with this!

I think the 5167 can reach 85k upon discontinuation. It's just madness at this point.

[azizu]

Originally Posted by brkn

I love calatravas, specifically 5227G-010. That would actually be my first choice from Patek but it's unfortunately out of my price range. I'm a college student and the most I can do is around $25k.

I understand.
Have you considered going pre-owned for your first Patek?
You will be able to find good selection at around $25k


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[np2016]

@brkn I would highly suggest against buying a 25k Patek as a college student. Wait until after you graduate college and in the mean time invest that money wisely.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by np2016

@brkn I would highly suggest against buying a 25k Patek as a college student. Wait until after you graduate college and in the mean time invest that money wisely.

Good advice! I'm glad that I didn't buy a PP3700 back in 1976 when I graduated from college and instead invested the $3K I got from graduation in stock; Westinghouse, PanAm and Charter Co.

[brkn]

Originally Posted by azizu

I understand.
Have you considered going pre-owned for your first Patek?
You will be able to find good selection at around $25k


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I don't see myself going to anywhere other than an AD for my first piece.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by brkn

I don't see myself going to anywhere other than an AD for my first piece.

I miss the days when most people got their "first" watches from ADs.

[ATO]

Originally Posted by brkn

??????? don't say that's not possible either now cos I'm pretty sure a non blue dial is

A year ago you might be correct, now? not a chance

[JSCP]

Well at MSRP I don’t think chances are in your favor, if you are not a good client. I got mine in 2018, requested one (had a very old purchase history with them ( sales AD, only chatted about watch collecting, was wearing my everose Daytona) he took my info)…7 months later got the call… but that’s was then. After that he and mgr, have been good to me, but they know I’m a collector, and they like my taste. They are very decent and they treat everyone with respect, even though like all AD’s they can’t allocate to all, due to demand.

In any case, most PP, Rolex, VC, AP watches that are the most popular are just hard/impossible. Most can’t even easily sully
accommodate even the VIP’s.

Not every AD is dealing with GM dealers. I trust my AD’s . They just have enough supply allocate to their best clients.

[azizu]

Originally Posted by brkn

I don't see myself going to anywhere other than an AD for my first piece.

Being a college student and wanting a 5227 from AD and wanting to only spend $25K… all three can’t happen at the same time.
Choose two
Honestly if you want your first patek to be from an AD then you need to save more (the catch is that prices keep going up while you save).
There is nothing wrong with getting your first patek second hand to experience the brand before thronging big money.
The good thing is that even if you bought a second hand PP, used it for a while… it won’t lose lots of value


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