thoughts on Rolex market prediction 5 year

[dannymac55]

It seems that if you look at the trends, it peaks and valleys, but generally is headed in an upward direction long-term. Kind of like the stock market, really.

[TunaTuna]

The market probably won't continue to rise so fast, and things will calm down, but forget about a 30% drop or ever being able to buy a steel sports much below retail again.

[inadeje]

It will mostly depend on a few factors

#1 - Instagram inspired perceived wealth continues
#2 - Non watch people continue to seek status through watches
#3 - The gen X migration from smart watches to mechanical continues

My 2 cents

[ndrs63]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

The market probably won't continue to rise so fast, and things will calm down, but forget about a 30% drop or ever being able to buy a steel sports much below retail again.

This


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[bob sims]

Originally Posted by elitetimeco

wanting to see if the trf members see the market continuing to rise on certain pieces trading double, even triple retail. do you see this issue getting better in the future. or worse as AD'S continue to backdoor watches and watches ending up in grey market dealer hands.

I walked into Rolex store in San Francisco to get crystal replaced on my hulk. while I was there they had the displays filled with display only models. I asked about a steel Skydweller and was told that they are not taking ANY new orders and are only filling orders with previous clients. so basically was shut down from waitlist and told to go try somewhere else.

this seems to be a reoccurring issue in the Bay Area. I've also tried another Rolex AD in Walnut Creek. instead of being turned down completely I was told to put my inquiry in on there website online.

let me know what you think. and if anybody knows of anybody AD's playing ball please PM ME;)

Prices won't go down unless there is a 1929 style global collapse.

[Nairn1980]

AD’s playing ball PM you?
Don’t expect many PMs lol

[Fleetlord]

Rolex will continue to cut independent AD doors in the US. Most, if not all single location, family owned dealers will be eliminated within the next 5yrs.

Family owned chains in key markets will still exist, but the dealer network will be predominantly multi chain companies such as WOS, Tourneau…etc

Rolex merchandising will feature smaller display cases to facilitate minimalist offering strategies to the general public. Less is much, much more in luxury.

Rolex distribution of higher factory margin classic references, especially in TT and PM will be Rolex focus in terms of dealer allocation.

The SS professional model distribution will continue to be limited….so don’t expect to see cases full to the brim with GMT and Subs, but you will see DJ return to the new, more selective and slimmed down showcases.

Barring economic collapse beyond any scale previously seen, preowned market will remain strong as can be, especially on SS professional references.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by elitetimeco

I asked about a steel Skydweller and was told that they are not taking ANY new orders and are only filling orders with previous clients. so basically was shut down from waitlist and told to go try somewhere else.

Same policy at my AD for Sky Dwellers, GMTs and Subs of both varieties. I don't know about other models but I do know that OPs were getting very tight before the introduction of the Stellar dials. Due to unrelenting demand, only existing customers get the chance to buy, and even this reduced and select waiting list is years long.

I don't know how the secondary market value will go. At the moment it appears to be going up but again, I don't know. There are asking prices and there are selling prices - assuming anyone is buying. Personally, I don't care either way.

[edisonstar23]

I hardly doubt the market will crash anytime soon meaning in the next 2-3 Yrs.
However, I don’t think it’s sustainable for basic watches to go for double triple it’s retail and still increasing.

We have never seen a watch market this crazy ever! I don’t think it’s crazy to foresee a 100%+ correction in the future ( not one day to the other but slowly over time).

Unless the market could bear the new prices going forward- can a Submariner be sold going forward for 14k? A SS 15500 for 47k? I personally don’t think so.


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[bob sims]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

I hardly doubt the market will crash anytime soon meaning in the next 2-3 Yrs.
However, I don’t think it’s sustainable for basic watches to go for double triple it’s retail and still increasing.

We have never seen a watch market this crazy ever! I don’t think it’s crazy to foresee a 100%+ correction in the future ( not one day to the other but slowly over time).

Unless the market could bear the new prices going forward- can a Submariner be sold going forward for 14k? A SS 15500 for 47k? I personally don’t think so.


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A 100% correction would mean the watch would be free!

[edisonstar23]

Originally Posted by bob sims

A 100% correction would mean the watch would be free!

Bruhhhh! Most Rolexes are training double retail - a 100% correction will mean MSRP again.


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[ELLimon]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

I hardly doubt the market will crash anytime soon meaning in the next 2-3 Yrs.
However, I don’t think it’s sustainable for basic watches to go for double triple it’s retail and still increasing.

We have never seen a watch market this crazy ever! I don’t think it’s crazy to foresee a 100%+ correction in the future ( not one day to the other but slowly over time).

Unless the market could bear the new prices going forward- can a Submariner be sold going forward for 14k? A SS 15500 for 47k? I personally don’t think so.


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All you need is a small pebble. If prices start to go down, people with 250k, 1mill and up will start dumping, this will feed a loop and price will crash.


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[Boaters]

If you want a Rolex buy grey or you will never get it.

[ELLimon]

Originally Posted by Boaters

If you want a Rolex buy grey or you will never get it.

I second that.

[norcalgt3]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

I hardly doubt the market will crash anytime soon meaning in the next 2-3 Yrs.
However, I don’t think it’s sustainable for basic watches to go for double triple it’s retail and still increasing.

We have never seen a watch market this crazy ever! I don’t think it’s crazy to foresee a 100%+ correction in the future ( not one day to the other but slowly over time).

Unless the market could bear the new prices going forward- can a Submariner be sold going forward for 14k? A SS 15500 for 47k? I personally don’t think so.


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A 100% correction? We're getting watches for free?

[norcalgt3]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

Bruhhhh! Most Rolexes are training double retail - a 100% correction will mean MSRP again.


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I think you mean 50% correction from current prices....

[SkyJuice]

If only I have a crystal ball. Possibly the brand will only increase in price due to publicity and marketing king.

[Chester01]

Don’t know don’t care. Actually hopefully the whole watch market crashed and gets the speculators out. At any rate, I don’t care for any modern Rolex references and have no plans to ever add what’s becoming increasingly bloated and flashy watches for look at me sake only.

[BroncoOne]

5 year prediction: most will still be on the waiting list for a steel Daytona.

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by ELLimon

All you need is a small pebble. If prices start to go down, people with 250k, 1mill and up will start dumping, this will feed a loop and price will crash.


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That’s a joke, right?

Even if demand wanes and Rolex produces 750,000 more watches every year, people with money that like their Rolex watches don’t need to sell any of them. They are more likely to be gifted.

[gerry100]

with government printing money and driving inflation it's likely dollar values will creep up.

Versus inflation is another question

[rominvicta]

No one is able to foresee in ten-year time! Just go back to 2011 and try to imagine whether you would have guessed what would have happened in 2021!
Though there are certain assumptions:
1. Rolex will open a new manufacturing facility in 2023 which will let Rolex double its annual quantity, provided they find enough skilful watchmakers.
2. Financially demand will outstrip supply by many per year, thus prices will keep on going up. How steep that will be no one may say.
3. Rolex will double retail prices in near future and that will definitely fuel up prices and in a vicious-circle manner that will support demand etc…

So, do not expect any time soon prices to settle even! Just on the contrary even models in less of a demand will become scarce. Remember where the demand for DD or almost any of the PM was like 5 years ago? Even 3 years ago? Even 2 years ago?

[superpop]

Between Chrono24 and Ebay there are over 100K Rolex watches for sale right now. That is not scarcity. Nevermind the 1M new units Rolex supposedly injects into the market every year. What we have here is a classic case of price manipulation based on hype and FOMO along with way too many knuckleheads that think they can become a successful watch dealer/flipper. I get that lots of new millionaires have been minted in the past few years but most of them could care less about Rolex. What we have now is not sustainable.

[Mystro]

I stop guessing when the Rolex market would return to normal. I’ve come to the conclusion we are in a normal market and models will continue to rise incrementally. The price of other goods have gone up and it’s just a mindset to get comfortable with the increase.

[absoluteczech]

Originally Posted by superpop

Between Chrono24 and Ebay there are over 100K Rolex watches for sale right now. That is not scarcity. Nevermind the 1M new units Rolex supposedly injects into the market every year. What we have here is a classic case of price manipulation based on hype and FOMO along with way too many knuckleheads that think they can become a successful watch dealer/flipper. I get that lots of new millionaires have been minted in the past few years but most of them could care less about Rolex. What we have now is not sustainable.

[rominvicta]

Originally Posted by superpop

Between Chrono24 and Ebay there are over 100K Rolex watches for sale right now. That is not scarcity. Nevermind the 1M new units Rolex supposedly injects into the market every year. What we have here is a classic case of price manipulation based on hype and FOMO along with way too many knuckleheads that think they can become a successful watch dealer/flipper. I get that lots of new millionaires have been minted in the past few years but most of them could care less about Rolex. What we have now is not sustainable.

Yeap, i practiced the same kind of wishful thinking for some time. Was just about buying a 16610LV for EUR 10 k back in 2017 and thought prices would soon settle. Today it costs between 23 and 27 k.

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by rominvicta

No one is able to foresee in ten-year time! Just go back to 2011 and try to imagine whether you would have guessed what would have happened in 2021!
Though there are certain assumptions:
1. Rolex will open a new manufacturing facility in 2023 which will let Rolex double its annual quantity, provided they find enough skilful watchmakers.
2. Financially demand will outstrip supply by many per year, thus prices will keep on going up. How steep that will be no one may say.
3. Rolex will double retail prices in near future and that will definitely fuel up prices and in a vicious-circle manner that will support demand etc…

So, do not expect any time soon prices to settle even! Just on the contrary even models in less of a demand will become scarce. Remember where the demand for DD or almost any of the PM was like 5 years ago? Even 3 years ago? Even 2 years ago?

I think #1 would be a mistake unless the facilty is to make Tudors.

[elitetimeco]

I domt think new facility will be producing more Rolex watches than the number of watches produced the year before. Rolex has no need or desire to produce more watches than they have been producing in the past years

[Mendota]

The new facility is only expected to increase movement production by ~25% by the end of 2023. Far cry from double.

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[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

Bruhhhh! Most Rolexes are training double retail - a 100% correction will mean MSRP again.


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Isn’t that just 50% off?