thoughts on Rolex market prediction 5 year

[elitetimeco]

wanting to see if the trf members see the market continuing to rise on certain pieces trading double, even triple retail. do you see this issue getting better in the future. or worse as AD'S continue to backdoor watches and watches ending up in grey market dealer hands.

I walked into Rolex store in San Francisco to get crystal replaced on my hulk. while I was there they had the displays filled with display only models. I asked about a steel Skydweller and was told that they are not taking ANY new orders and are only filling orders with previous clients. so basically was shut down from waitlist and told to go try somewhere else.

this seems to be a reoccurring issue in the Bay Area. I've also tried another Rolex AD in Walnut Creek. instead of being turned down completely I was told to put my inquiry in on there website online.

let me know what you think. and if anybody knows of anybody AD's playing ball please PM ME;)

[Njkdog]

I don’t think many ADs are being shady. But a few bad apples ruin the bunch…

As for future of prices, I’d imagine they’ll keep increasing, just not as exponentially. With even modest inflation they should increase slightly. And someone else brought up a good point. Rolex only makes a million watches a year. Probably only 400,000 ones that I’d actually wear. In the past year, there have been many millions of new millionaires. There for demand is rising faster than supply. I’ll put my pettiness aside and say, I’m glad a lot of people are doing financially well and buying the watches that I want to buy.

[geoffreyis]

Lol.

[Boaters]

Put it this way I don't see them going down.

[brandog]

Prices on desirable models will continue to tick up as they've done for the last 40 years.

[doboy007]

Maybe some dip before slowly rising again

[vh2k]

Every thread you create is about watch values and prices.

[Tricolore66]

It's an illness around here!

Originally Posted by vh2k

Every thread you create is about watch values and prices.

[7enderbender]

What is actually the main source of income for Rolex dealers? Right now they are merely distribution centers. So what else are they making money on? And what’s the commission on taking delivery of a box and then handing it over to a customer?

[pepe01]

In 5-10 years, there is no Rolex AD. Customer can order watch online.
Watch will not be the crazy desired items as now. Today, we are at the top peak of watch cycle of all time.

1. Baby boom, Gen X, Gen Y who has been growing up with Rolex history and now top wealth of Generation gradually pass away, they will leave some amount of antique watch(2000-2025 series) for next Gen.

2. Gen Z and Gen Virtual are more appriciate with Virtual Reality things, Defi, and NFTs as new investment and new collection.

3. Old gen collection(Antique, coin, stamp, watch, gasoline car) will still be collected by niche group of people.

4. Dress with golden necklace and bracelet are outdated and watch also. People not impressed others by decorate things on their body.

5. TRF mem here still appreciate their watch collection because they connect with good old day dream but not for their offsprings.

6. Our ancestors collected rock, chinaware, furniture, banknote, coin, stamp. See what happen now.

7. Next Gen will collect everything in Metaverse, own landbloc on the Moon to Mar, hold assets in Decentaland.

[ks58]

The watches will continue to be very very very hard to get in another decade. Less ADs as well across the country with more stores or boutiques. Prices obviously higher.

[amanbra]

I feel things will equalise back out as they all do, the world can't keep generating wealth and value out of no where and not have consequences.

[grimps]

Originally Posted by pepe01

In 5-10 years, there is no Rolex AD. Customer can order watch online.
Watch will not be the crazy desired items as now. Today, we are at the top peak of watch cycle of all time.

1. Baby boom, Gen X, Gen Y who has been growing up with Rolex history and now top wealth of Generation gradually pass away, they will leave some amount of antique watch(2000-2025 series) for next Gen.

2. Gen Z and Gen Virtual are more appriciate with Virtual Reality things, Defi, and NFTs as new investment and new collection.

3. Old gen collection(Antique, coin, stamp, watch, gasoline car) will still be collected by niche group of people.

4. Dress with golden necklace and bracelet are outdated and watch also. People not impressed others by decorate things on their body.

5. TRF mem here still appreciate their watch collection because they connect with good old day dream but not for their offsprings.

6. Our ancestors collected rock, chinaware, furniture, banknote, coin, stamp. See what happen now.

7. Next Gen will collect everything in Metaverse, own landbloc on the Moon to Mar, hold assets in Decentaland.

I reckon in 10-20 years there will be a lot more vintage watches with boxes and papers in excellent condition.
Unlike 20-30 years ago when people purchased a Rolex and wore it every day the future Vintage Rolex market prices will be a lot lower

[Moondoggy]

Ask Nostradamus.

[htc8p]

i think apocalypse will happen. majority will not care only people like us. rolex and other brands will become niche markets.

prices will not much be affected in niche markets.

[johnwigan]

Rolex supply will return to normal. You will be able to purchase most models again. We are at the top of a bubble. Covid-19 worldwide pandemic. Government fiscal stimulus. It is not just watches. Lots of other things have shot up in price and become more difficult to get.

Rolex is not going to change a winning business model by becoming high end, more expensive watches like Patek.

Alas, as with all bubbles some people look at what has happened relatively recently and think that will just continue indefinitely. It won't. It never does. It is not different this time. It never is.

Of course this is good news for those who just like the watches, and want to buy one to wear on their wrist, to tell the time.

[JonaG]

You again?

[jimcameron]

Get some new music.

[xrole]

Originally Posted by 7enderbender

What is actually the main source of income for Rolex dealers? Right now they are merely distribution centers. So what else are they making money on? And what’s the commission on taking delivery of a box and then handing it over to a customer?

Do you mean, what is their main source of income other than obviously buying the watches from Rolex for a discounted price and selling it to the customer for the MSRP price? Or do you think that they provide a free distribution service?

[brandrea]

Welcome to the forum

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by elitetimeco

wanting to see if the trf members see the market continuing to rise

Yes

[Sandpit]

Up, down, sideways. I don’t care

[Divingdeep87]

Originally Posted by johnwigan

Rolex supply will return to normal. You will be able to purchase most models again. We are at the top of a bubble. Covid-19 worldwide pandemic. Government fiscal stimulus. It is not just watches. Lots of other things have shot up in price and become more difficult to get.

Rolex is not going to change a winning business model by becoming high end, more expensive watches like Patek.

Alas, as with all bubbles some people look at what has happened relatively recently and think that will just continue indefinitely. It won't. It never does. It is not different this time. It never is.

Of course this is good news for those who just like the watches, and want to buy one to wear on their wrist, to tell the time.

It’s high demand is has nothing to do with covid-19 or low supply. The only reason you can’t get a Rolex is because a lot of watch guys and none watch guys has find out they can make easy money when they get one. My AD gets the watches he is used too, but they are all sold before they arrive he and his business is having the time of their life. They get 20 calls a day asking for sub, gmt and daytona. All days of the week.

So back to the topic I see this continuing for at least 2-3 more years.

[Seddyspaghetti]

Rolex to the moon!!!!!

[Chester01]

I mean I’m glad they are not taking lists anymore. The reality is that if the lists exceed 5 years + there will be a new reference that may replace it and so one many never get the model they want. The gray market has a lot of $$ on the line and every incentive to keep supply tight. It’s only Rolex that can change that by going to all Rolex owned stores selling first come first serve.

[mervmank59]

Even after 08 the rolex markets were fairly unaffected on desirable models. I guess its only further up from here as inflation ramps up

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by johnwigan

Rolex supply will return to normal. You will be able to purchase most models again. We are at the top of a bubble. Covid-19 worldwide pandemic. Government fiscal stimulus. It is not just watches. Lots of other things have shot up in price and become more difficult to get.

Rolex is not going to change a winning business model by becoming high end, more expensive watches like Patek.

Alas, as with all bubbles some people look at what has happened relatively recently and think that will just continue indefinitely. It won't. It never does. It is not different this time. It never is.

Of course this is good news for those who just like the watches, and want to buy one to wear on their wrist, to tell the time.

I agree with you 100%. When you actually case study the tulip craze you see many similarities. Regular people didn't drive it. It was flippers and resellers selling options contracts to buy bulbs, not even the actual bulbs themselves. Easy money was abound. Banks were lending freely and allowing buyers to lever up at 10:1 to buy these tulip options. The banks all wanted a piece of the action. Then the resellers would flip the option at a marked up price, take the profit and pay off the loan. The same banks would lend multiple times on the same option!! Some tulip options traded hands 10 times in a single day at the peak. There was also a pandemic raging through Europe at the time, The Black Plague, which prevented a lot of people from doing their regular business so they resorted to the "easy money" of flipping tulip options.

Basic watches being flipped for 3x retail price? These things never end well.

[Tensai]

Yes. No. Maybe.
Next question.

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by Seddyspaghetti

Rolex to the moon!!!!!

Diamond hands! Ha ha!

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

[Rado63]

Unless the world collapses the Rolex trend will continue. There is too much wealth out there in the world. There are only so many homes, stocks, and automobiles to buy so all luxury goods will be hard to get and therefore prices will go up.

The only way to be a client is to buy what they have available. That means you will buy women's watches, datejusts, and deep seas before you are offered a submariner. You can start selling the watches you don't want but expect to loose money on most and maybe make some money as you get more difficult watches.

Unfortunately the Rolex AD has too many people walking in and buying whatever they have.

There are other brands, that make watches and even they are heating up.