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25 May 2020, 06:44 AM | #181 | |
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Its about duration, most Rolex buyers can handle the pain level thus far. But if a second wave hits and this goes on for the next 5-6 months all but the very wealthiest will have Rolex purchases way down on their priority lists. |
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25 May 2020, 06:56 AM | #182 | |
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It's obviously not a representative sample as such. |
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25 May 2020, 08:04 AM | #183 | |
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You can look at the membership of this forum. There are quite a few members here completely insulated from economic downfalls and they can purchase whatever they want at any time. Those particular individuals aren’t personally out of income because they couldn’t go to work as a bartender or hair stylist. Lower wage workers got hammered with the economic crisis, but so far, the Rolex buyers really have not been that affected, especially when compared to ‘08. Certainly some on the fringes are delaying their purchase, but those with funds are spending. |
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25 May 2020, 08:45 AM | #184 |
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And that is exactly my point. The problem is not that people guess, the problem is that people are treating their guesses as facts without anything material to support it. 2-3 months back, a lot of threads got locked due to the hostility when people were discussing whether prices would rise or fall due to covid-19 because people would stand so hard on their own position, like it was a fact.
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25 May 2020, 09:00 AM | #185 | |
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25 May 2020, 09:06 AM | #186 | |
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BTW: High-end audio sales have experienced an increase from many vendors I've spoken with. Of course being on Staycation while not spending on travel... We live in interesting times.
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__________________ “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming 'Wow! What a Ride!'” -- Hunter S. Thompson Sent from my Etch A Sketch using String Theory. |
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25 May 2020, 09:10 AM | #187 |
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Rich people are typically not dumb, well for the most part. Most got rich because either they inherited a bunch of money, or they earned it through hard work and savvy. Most rich people I know do not spend money when the tide is going out. They wait, keep the powder dry and hoard liquidity. They do this so they can catch the upswing. As someone who can afford to buy any Rolex I want, the last thing I am looking at right now is spending money on an expensive watch that is not liquid. Cash is king kids, not jewelry. I would rather buy stock or real estate on the cheap.
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25 May 2020, 09:18 AM | #188 | |
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25 May 2020, 09:24 AM | #189 | |
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MOST Rolex owners are NOT wealthy but everyday hard working people. They have 9-5 jobs. These are the guys that have been impacted MOST from recent economic times. If you think Rolex purely target the top 1% and those customers are what caused the bubble your in fantasy land. |
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25 May 2020, 09:26 AM | #190 | |
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An individual stock can go to zero because of overlevered balance sheet or insufficient cash flows (Worse case would be suddenly taking a high non recurring expenses or hidden accounting issues) A Rolex has less uncertainty from human fraudulent element and more price predictability (even oil can go to negative, would a Rolex watch be worse than that? And real estate has higher price volatility than watches because they are usually leverage investments) of cos every asset will be impacted but price is more predictable as mention Asset diversification in portfolio is important. It reduces my overall risks |
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25 May 2020, 09:57 AM | #191 | |
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On an earlier post where you’ve confidently quoted 5-6 different stats, I asked you for source. You seem to have a lot of numbers at hand including crashing prices, Rolex ownership data, Rolex stocks at greys, and what not on some threads ... Are you a Rolex insider? A trade journalist? An industry analyst? Would love to know how your data comes through.
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25 May 2020, 10:42 AM | #192 |
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25 May 2020, 10:54 AM | #193 |
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So interesting to see the varied opinions on this thread. From experience in the stock market and sports betting, when everyone is on one side of the thought process the contrarian outcome usually happens...not always but much more often than not.
In the current market, it seems to be very split between those that believe high end watch pricing will drop significantly and those that are convinced models such as the hot Rolex SS pieces will not drop much at all. Once there's a majority opinion, lean the other direction and you'll be good! |
25 May 2020, 11:05 AM | #194 | |
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25 May 2020, 12:50 PM | #195 | |
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There is a reason why many on here still consider Rolex "Tool" watches. Because they were used as tools and aids for working duties. |
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25 May 2020, 01:18 PM | #196 |
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I would surmise from all the posts the following:
Guys/gals who are big earners, lots of capital will keep buying when the AD calls. Rank and file employees, who have been saving money each month to buy a watch are going to be hurt. I would have to think that the AD’s list are long for hot models and will have no trouble working down their lists to sell a hot piece. |
25 May 2020, 01:34 PM | #197 | |
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I dont think anyone is debating that getting pieces at a discount from an AD is on the cards. Their wait list would be long enough to ride this out easily. The main point here is that gray market price, repeat gray market and individual classifieds will suffer. Most hyped watches will approach MSRP. It wont be crazy prices like we saw 12 months ago, it will still be slight premium but only slight. IMHO its a good thing for all watch lovers the gray prices for hyped models are decreasing. If your buying for enjoyment who cares. And if your buying to flip well your in for a world of pain in the next 6-12 months. I feel for the person who bought BLNRs for $15k+. I think DavidSW sold one for $23k. LOL - i really hope the buyers bought it because it absolutely loved those pieces. |
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25 May 2020, 03:00 PM | #198 |
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Exactly. So many people don't understand this as I appreciate some may have never sold a watch before. But many watches have a very wide Bid/Ask Spread. Watches like the Daytona or Pepsi tend to have very SMALL spreads as volume is high and many reference points for prices. But take say a Nautilus, or FPJ Chronometre Bleu. The spread is VERY high, what you see on C24 or whatever is NOT the price you will get, some times quite far from it.
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25 May 2020, 03:30 PM | #199 | |
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I know enough of their history and enough of their present, thank you. A study of the current Rolex portfolio would show that their “tool watch” days are consigned to history, for better or worse it doesn’t matter. I’ll leave it at that. Since your brought it up... Considering you’re firmly in the 1%, based on your posts on other threads where you talk about your net worth, maybe your time is better invested on forums focused on UHNWI. I’m happy here. I’ll take it then you have no data for the all numbers that you bandy about in various threads, “common knowledge” should be easy to back up.
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25 May 2020, 06:03 PM | #200 |
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Lists will remain strong for the hot watches. Wait times are so long that even if they shorten 25% it’s still long enough to maintain that sense of limited availability.
The secondary market prices I really think will deflate though. I bought a SS Daytona in 2011 & paid 15% over RRP. Today the mark up is easily over 50% for the ceramic version. I could see that premium halving over the next 12-18 months to +25% without much drama. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
25 May 2020, 07:13 PM | #201 | |
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25 May 2020, 08:33 PM | #202 | |
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25 May 2020, 09:55 PM | #203 |
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ADs prefer to keep the hype alive as they continue to make money by back channelling their steel pieces at a premium . It’s the same story everywhere unless you’re a heavy slender. This article really doesn’t prove anything I guess .
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26 May 2020, 01:34 AM | #204 |
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So early.
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26 May 2020, 02:58 AM | #205 | |
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I do think Rolex has a huge advantage here, since they are largely manufactured in-house and don't rely on completely manufactured sub-systems from suppliers as would something like an automobile manufacturer. My guess is that they mostly rely on steel, gold, gemstones in their supply chain, and their manufactured product can be shipped globally within a few days. Being such a private company also plays in their favor, as they can focus on products and not meeting expectations of the financial markets.
I've been content enough (imagine that!) with my collection that I've spent little time on this forum and even much less checking out the the various trusted seller websites since the beginning of the year. Earlier this week I was curious and took a look at pricing, and not much has changed as far as asking prices go. Possibly a few pieces that were overheated in value (116500, new BLNR, 5711, 5167) have come down slightly, but that was really in motion pre-CV. Most of the other bread and butter pieces were priced more or less where they were. I am incredibly curious as to what prices deals are actually being made at though, as that is the only number that truly matters in the discussion. I'm tempted to buy something now just to find out! Common sense would indicate that for us individual collectors/hobbyists that it's not a good time to sell, so why would you if you didn't have to right now? That would naturally lead into thinking that anyone selling now needs to sell, and a "blood in the water" mentality. I would truly hate to deal with the kind of offers that private sellers are today! Quote:
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26 May 2020, 03:15 AM | #206 | |
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And I can't speak for the US, but in the UK, "consensual" salary cuts have been common, even amongst high earners. |
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26 May 2020, 03:17 AM | #207 | |
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26 May 2020, 03:21 AM | #208 | |
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I think you're right about the salary range, at least in the UK. |
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26 May 2020, 03:24 AM | #209 | |
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26 May 2020, 07:26 AM | #210 |
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Yes, but at the expense of walk-in retail, and for most overall sales are down significantly.
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