Am I Dumb to Pay a Premium for a 5167a?

[RHIII]

I would slam my hand in my car door before I even considered paying 2x retail for ANYTHING.

Those prices will NOT hold for much longer. I’d wait. End of the year it’s going to be a completely different story.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by RHIII

I would slam my hand in my car door before I even considered paying 2x retail for ANYTHING.

Those prices will NOT hold for much longer. I’d wait. End of the year it’s going to be a completely different story.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm with Steve McQ on this. I know you'd like to get one now, but give it six more months. If the prices aren't moving downwards by Autumn, then buy one in the knowledge that you exercised prudence in waiting a few months.

I'm a big fan of the 5167, but simply couldn't justify paying over $25k--and even then, it would have to be a complete set. Once you hit mid 20s, so many other watches become available. I'd much rather get a 116519 for $26k than a 5167 for $25K.

[Speedbird-1]

Originally Posted by RHIII

I would slam my hand in my car door before I even considered paying 2x retail for ANYTHING.

Those prices will NOT hold for much longer. I’d wait. End of the year it’s going to be a completely different story.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

How much WILL a Ferrari 250SWB, be then?

[dbfagan]

Originally Posted by archer1021

The way I see it, 5+ years ago buying a watch at msrp was considered a rip off as most watches, including most rolexes would lose you 30% when you walked out with it, and that is being nice. People would be shocked if you didn’t at least get some discount on a watch.

This recent new world where many watches are worth 2-2.5 times msrp is great and doesn’t look like it’s going anywhere soon.


But just as most people who really like watches did 5 years ago, they bought the watch they liked it, not because of what they felt they would lose. I know that many say the 5167 is not a 30K + watch, but for the foreseeable future....it is.

So buy what you like and don’t look back. Or wait 3 years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Could not agree more

[offrdmania]

Im not in a rush. I am going to wait a few months and watch the market to see if there is a drop in its price or if it stays steady.

[BaselWorld]

Originally Posted by offrdmania

Im not in a rush. I am going to wait a few months and watch the market to see if there is a drop in its price or if it stays steady.

I can‘t see prices going down a lot. Supply will be massively reduced and the demand, especially for pieces like the 5167a, will not decrease.

[Mr. Miami]

Originally Posted by baselworld

i can‘t see prices going down a lot. Supply will be massively reduced and the demand, especially for pieces like the 5167a, will not decrease.

+1

[Soondooboo]

Originally Posted by BaselWorld

I can‘t see prices going down a lot. Supply will be massively reduced and the demand, especially for pieces like the 5167a, will not decrease.

They already did a drop a decent amount, so no one really knows. Demand in general for paying over MSRP has certainly decreased

[dardeca]

Originally Posted by Soondooboo

They already did a drop a decent amount, so no one really knows. Demand in general for paying over MSRP has certainly decreased

I don't follow the 5167A secondary prices, but what were they before COVID-19 vs. now?

[vtsyrlin]

I recall picking up almost new 5167 from DavidSW for 18k back in early 2018.
Didnt' stick. The watch had very little wrist presence and felt too light.
Moved it on 12 month later.

While it's a nice watch, it's not worth the premium being asked for it.

Originally Posted by dardeca

I don't follow the 5167A secondary prices, but what were they before COVID-19 vs. now?

[Michael T]

Originally Posted by offrdmania

Since it is near impossible to find a 5167a at MSRP from an AD without a multi-year wait, a long purchase history or without bundling with an unwanted watch. I am considering paying the gray market premium to enjoy one now. Im not looking at it for investment purposes, im looking at it to enjoy for many years.

I tried one on recently and fell in love with it. The dial is so easy to read and it is so thin compared to my other watches.

Who else has paid the gray market premium for love of the watch?

Not here, bought below MSRP pre owned and sold soon thereafter as they ran up.

[Benzsiam]

This is purely personal preference, if you really love this timepiece because of the look and technology, go ahead and get it. But if you want to have it because of the brand recognition, think again.

[Patek Philippe]

I would spend the money to buy time. If it is the watch you really want.

The premium you paying VS the amount of time waiting to get at msrp.

But there is a chance that Patek could raise the price every year. One day Msrp of 5167 could be at today premium price.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Patek Philippe

But there is a chance that Patek could raise the price every year. One day Msrp of 5167 could be at today premium price.

Really??? At 2x msrp? Have never seen Patek raise prices to 2x, and I've been a collector for decades. Do you have any examples of when Patek raised prices to 2x their then current msrp? If that did happen, which i highly doubt, Patek really needs to up their game with 5 year warranty and a new movement with better finishing work that fills the case. We should expect more advanced materials as well to at least keep up with what other brands offer today.

Perhaps a very good questions would be:
How many posting here paid over MSRP so have a financial interest in current grey pricing?
i paid $17k, and that's about what a 5167 is worth, maybe $20k max.

What did you guys pay?

[chiscott_29]

I don't think the price increases will happen overnight by any means. But, is it feasible that over a typical wait time for these super-hot watches (i.e., 3 to 5 years) that they get closer to their current secondary market value?

I say it's absolutely feasible. Just look at what AP is doing. Their recent price increases certainly outpace inflation and logical increases in labor or materials cost. I of course don't know, but it seems to me part of their pricing strategy is to get a bigger piece of the true market value of their watches.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I don't think the price increases will happen overnight by any means. But, is it feasible that over a typical wait time for these super-hot watches (i.e., 3 to 5 years) that they get closer to their current secondary market value?

With currency devaluation anything is feasible. Pertaining to Patek pricing over time, never seen a double. The 3970's very long production piece might come close.

I say it's absolutely feasible. Just look at what AP is doing. Their recent price increases certainly outpace inflation and logical increases in labor or materials cost. I of course don't know, but it seems to me part of their pricing strategy is to get a bigger piece of the true market value of their watches.

With all due respect to MODERN models and quality, warranty, and service, Patek is no AP, or FPJ, or ALS... Patek can 'reboot' to the respect they held about a decade or two ago, though they need better leadership imho. A change to achieve the betterment of the brand starts at the top. jmho

[psv]

I would never pay above AD money. I've owned this watch 3 times, it may not be all that you thought it would be, and trying to resell it at premium prices is very tough.

[Patek Philippe]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Really??? At 2x msrp? Have never seen Patek raise prices to 2x, and I've been a collector for decades. Do you have any examples of when Patek raised prices to 2x their then current msrp? If that did happen, which i highly doubt, Patek really needs to up their game with 5 year warranty and a new movement with better finishing work that fills the case. We should expect more advanced materials as well to at least keep up with what other brands offer today.

Perhaps a very good questions would be:
How many posting here paid over MSRP so have a financial interest in current grey pricing?
i paid $17k, and that's about what a 5167 is worth, maybe $20k max.

What did you guys pay?

With all due respect, I never said that Patek would raise 2x msrp. Or did I? And I never said to pay the premium 2x msrp either. But if the premium justify the Unlimited waiting time, I would pay the premium. And that is the op’s decision at what premium worth the shot. He said he has found some dealers asking over 30-45% over Msrp. At this price, I would personally consider paying the premium.

Well what I was trying to say is Patek can raise 5% 10% 20% over the years gradually. Some years less some years more. It has been happening, hasn’t?

Take Patek 5711 for example, In year 2017 price at that time was roughly about 20k more or less. I took the waiting approach and put my name on the waiting list. By the mid of 2018 when things started getting crazy. Price of 5711 started to sky rocket. I told myself I would never pay over the msrp.

I was hoping with my name on the list I would stand a chance. Until the beginning of 2019 things got worse. The grey price was crazy. And now my name has been crossed out from the list. And that year Patek raise 5711 up 20%. Should I have bought 5711 around 2018 from the grey? Had I known Patek would increase 5711 20%, I surely would have paid the premium. And who knows what would be the price of 5711 in the next 5 years. It could have gone up 40% over the 5 years.

Best regard,

[ansharma]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Really??? At 2x msrp? Have never seen Patek raise prices to 2x, and I've been a collector for decades. Do you have any examples of when Patek raised prices to 2x their then current msrp? If that did happen, which i highly doubt, Patek really needs to up their game with 5 year warranty and a new movement with better finishing work that fills the case. We should expect more advanced materials as well to at least keep up with what other brands offer today.

Perhaps a very good questions would be:
How many posting here paid over MSRP so have a financial interest in current grey pricing?
i paid $17k, and that's about what a 5167 is worth, maybe $20k max.

What did you guys pay?

Completely agree Steven. I paid £12k new from an AD with a discount 5 years ago and to me that is the maximum it is worth and sold it last year for some of the reasons you mentioned but the main one being better offerings from other brands.

Now the only Pateks I own are the 5124J which is pretty much perfect in my opinion and the 5116G which is also close to perfection, both for less than the current price of the 5167 and these are precious metal! No regrets

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by ansharma

Completely agree Steven. I paid £12k new from an AD with a discount 5 years ago and to me that is the maximum it is worth and sold it last year for some of the reasons you mentioned but the main one being better offerings from other brands.

Thanks for posting and agree. After decades of being a mechanical timepiece enthusiast I do not see the value of the 5167 at anything over $17k personally as there are so many great timepieces now available since the 5167 was first released long ago. As I look at the landscape of what's out there today in 2020 at that price level, it is painfully obvious the 5167 pales by comparison in quality, timely service, warranty length, etc imho.

[BumbleB]

I would just get on as many lists as you can and forget about it until you get the call.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[bob101]

I paid a slight premium for mine at the time and don’t regret it at all it’s an excellent piece. I wouldn’t however pay a premium for the Royal Oak or the prices they are going for these days, that’s just my opinion. With the aquanaut prices on the used market even with the premium you’re likely still come out on top or small loss in time if you did choose to sell.

If you really want it I don’t see a problem paying 20-30% more if it’s a keeper. Try find somewhere you can try it on and be comfortable it’s the one before you pull the trigger.

[YYR]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Just realized Greys want $30k? LOL! Hard pass. It's a $17k watch at best, be realistic, ok maybe $20k max.

If I may suggest, look at what FPJ and ALS offer in that $30k range. Food for thought, you could get a brand new with 5 year warranty Rolex GMT even at Grey pricing, a new Panerai with 8 year warranty, and a new Grand Seiko with 3 year warranty for $30k.

And you can get 100 seikos for that price! Patek is patek! It doesn’t seem like he’s really interested in getting his money’s worth, if he was then you would be right, he would be looking at other brands!

Al bought something from bob and paid him with a bag of cash, bob didn’t bother checking the bag to see what was inside, bob used that bag to buy something else from Jeff, now Jeff didn’t either check the bag, so and so forth the bag went from person to person until one day, someone decided to check the bag to make sure that there was something inside, and Lo and behold it was empty.

The point of this story is no one minds taking the empty bag as long as they can pass it on to the next person,

The same with over paying for watches above msrp, in exchange for your money you are taking an empty bag (proof is that even patek didn’t think it was worth more when they decided on a msrp)
That bag/watch can be passed from person to person until someone checks the bag.

With the watches one day someone will open all these bags, the point is not to be the last one holding the bag

[YYR]

Originally Posted by RHIII

I would slam my hand in my car door before I even considered paying 2x retail for ANYTHING.

Those prices will NOT hold for much longer. I’d wait. End of the year it’s going to be a completely different story.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I’m trying to think of a car that you wouldn’t mind slamming your Hand on, it would be interesting too know what you drive

[ansharma]

Just some food for thought...As I mentioned I sold my 5167 and got the Breguet 5817 - had it for a year now and still love it and will hopefully never have to be sold.

Here is why I prefer the Breguet and why I honestly do not consider it a downgrade to the Aquanaut overall:

- Solid gold hand guilloche dial

- Date background matches dial and is a big date

- Adjustable rubber strap

- Wave/Marine shaped details throughout, for example on crown guards, and strap holders

- luminous details are white

- Nautilus guilloche winding rotor with nicely decorated movement

- 65 hours power reserve

- Extra details such as coin edge casing and stepped bezel

Anyone in the market for a 5167 should at least look at this timepiece especially as it is easily available and a bargain on the secondary market.

Ps I own 2 Patek dress watches as well and also enjoy them so nothing against Patek.























Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by YYR

Patek is patek!

Nice story, and yeah a modern PP is, well, today's PP. Sorry and all, just not that impressed and getting less-so the longer i collect. Hopefully they update those old movements soon, as competition is getting ahead of Patek. Some vintage PP models are quite nice, if a bit small by today''s standards though nice to have the movement fill the case.

ansharma, very nice Breguet!

Interesting how no one wants to admit what they paid for their 5167 on this thread other than a few of us who got 'em a while back. What did you pay for yours YYR?

[ansharma]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Nice story, and yeah a modern PP is, well, today's PP. Sorry and all, just not that impressed and getting less-so the longer i collect. Hopefully they update those old movements soon, as competition is getting ahead of Patek. Some vintage PP models are quite nice, if a bit small by today''s standards though nice to have the movement fill the case.

ansharma, very nice Breguet!

Interesting how no one wants to admit what they paid for their 5167 on this thread other than a few of us who got 'em a while back. What did you pay for yours YYR?

Thanks Steven. I am also not keen on pieces where the movement is too small for the case. I actually think it was ok on the 40mm 5167 and was not too bad. I think we will see some new movements and Calatravas next year as it is certainly required. One of the reasons I love Lange is the movement fits the case well generally.

[enjoythemusic]

ALS makes some wonderful timepieces, congrats!

Let us hope those 2021 releases restore PP back to their once higher position they enjoyed decades ago. The interesting thing is a decade or so ago I was like many here thinking there's Patek... and then others. Experience, combined with modern times, woke me to many great brands like ALS (and FPJ, etc). Even Panerai is doing some tweak stuff with case materials and 8 year warranty, Omega smartly snatched up the co-ax movement... and I remember the first Freak timepiece. So much innovation going on the past decade, and longer warranties with good service times to match. Today's Pateks seems so dated and slow by comparison imho.

The industry has been glorious to watch during the past few decades.

[campfire]

Originally Posted by ansharma

Just some food for thought...As I mentioned I sold my 5167 and got the Breguet 5817 - had it for a year now and still love it and will hopefully never have to be sold.

Here is why I prefer the Breguet and why I honestly do not consider it a downgrade to the Aquanaut overall:

- Solid gold hand guilloche dial

- Date background matches dial and is a big date

- Adjustable rubber strap

- Wave/Marine shaped details throughout, for example on crown guards, and strap holders

- luminous details are white

- Nautilus guilloche winding rotor with nicely decorated movement

- 65 hours power reserve

- Extra details such as coin edge casing and stepped bezel

Anyone in the market for a 5167 should at least look at this timepiece especially as it is easily available and a bargain on the secondary market.

Ps I own 2 Patek dress watches as well and also enjoy them so nothing against Patek.























Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Love the rotor on this one Ansharma. And also wanting that Lange 1 Moonphase for quite some time now.

[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by ansharma

Just some food for thought...As I mentioned I sold my 5167 and got the Breguet 5817 - had it for a year now and still love it and will hopefully never have to be sold.

Here is why I prefer the Breguet and why I honestly do not consider it a downgrade to the Aquanaut overall:

- Solid gold hand guilloche dial

- Date background matches dial and is a big date

- Adjustable rubber strap

- Wave/Marine shaped details throughout, for example on crown guards, and strap holders

- luminous details are white

- Nautilus guilloche winding rotor with nicely decorated movement

- 65 hours power reserve

- Extra details such as coin edge casing and stepped bezel

Anyone in the market for a 5167 should at least look at this timepiece especially as it is easily available and a bargain on the secondary market.

Ps I own 2 Patek dress watches as well and also enjoy them so nothing against Patek.























Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Excellent. Not in the market for the 5167, but you’ve made that Breguet look very appealing LOL