Nothing changes. The waiting lists continue

[B2 Stealth]

I purchased 2 Rolex, 2 Tudors and a $21000 wedding ring to replace the one I bought my wife in college 38 years ago from my AD--all in the past year. I've been on the waiting list for a SS Pepsi since its inception. When I inquired yesterday I was jokingly told not to be so greedy. I have a great relationship with the AD and we joke around a lot so the answer was funny to me but shows the demand is still strong. I will keep waiting for the Rolex Pepsi while enjoying my Batman and Tudor BB GMT. Have a great Memorial Day weekend!

[peterpl]

LOL never believe articles that are written by gray dealers or have close links to the gray market.

It is in their own interest to hype up watches. Just look at the prices of the hot models. They have definitely dropped 100% and in some cases like the BLNR its dropped ALOT from their peaks.

Economy is down the shitter. 36 or is it 39 million ppl now unemployed in the US? You saying that aint going to affect any luxury watch market? Keep dreamin.

Unemployment in the US will hit 50 million by end of the year. Who gives a crap about a BLNR, BLRO or a LV. LOL

China economy stopped giving growth forecasts this year. This means they wont meet any growth target at all. Chinese economy down = luxury watch market down the shitter. Especially if they bring the new regulations in HK which they are proposing now.

[superpop]

The blind faith in Rolex on this board is stunning. They make non-essential fashion baubles that 99% of the population cannot afford and are subject to the whims of changing taste, yet you would think they are untouchable to anything. What goes up must come down, and in a recession, luxury items always take a bath. Give it another 6 months.

[deansot53]

Originally Posted by PatrickGu

Recession is coming and luxury items will be the first thing majority of the people will cut out.

Give it time

I totally agree especially in the UK. We have a deep recession looming and due to the furlough scheme etc the pain unfortunately hasn't started. As a consequence there will be mass unemployment and closure of a number of companies. I would be surprised to see the so called waiting list models being in most AD windows apart from the odd exception.

[chiscott_29]

Here's my take:

1). No hot models from AP, Patek, or Rolex are going to be more available from AD's during or after this crisis. In fact, it's likely to get worse as production had stopped and there is a chance other shutdowns will occur as we go through the cycles of the virus.

2). In the next several months, I suspect secondary prices are likely to remain firm for watches that are truly limited, which tends more towards the hotter AP and Patek models. There is nothing "rare" about SS Rolex models, as we all know. Grays are loaded with them, and that's why you've seen an appreciable price reduction on many of them. I suspect as the economy drags or even worsens, the secondary prices will soften. But, I absolutely do not see destruction ahead. I think it will pay to be patient, but I don't think you're going to see much outside of maybe a 20% to 25% reduction from today's levels.

3). Somebody posted above the reality. Rolex of all companies can ride this out for years. Patek and AP likely the same. These are not normal companies and I don't understand why people don't see that. Normal economic rules do not apply to them in terms of economic cycles, and a primary interest they have is to preserve value. Now, if this lasted 3+ years, that's a different story.

That's my opinion. Will I be wrong? Probably.

[PatrickGu]

Looking back at the recession in 2007-2008. What was the Rolex market back then?

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by peterpl

LOL never believe articles that are written by gray dealers or have close links to the gray market.

It is in their own interest to hype up watches. Just look at the prices of the hot models. They have definitely dropped 100% and in some cases like the BLNR its dropped ALOT from their peaks.

Economy is down the shitter. 36 or is it 39 million ppl now unemployed in the US? You saying that aint going to affect any luxury watch market? Keep dreamin.

Unemployment in the US will hit 50 million by end of the year. Who gives a crap about a BLNR, BLRO or a LV. LOL

China economy stopped giving growth forecasts this year. This means they wont meet any growth target at all. Chinese economy down = luxury watch market down the shitter. Especially if they bring the new regulations in HK which they are proposing now.

WOW --- hot models have dropped 100%. Now free, I'll call my AD. Hope you have a nice day. Here in Dallas, restaurants that have reopened are hard to get reservations at (50% capacity limit for now), auto traffic is about 80% of normal I understand, the weather is great, folks are outdoors and seem pretty happy.

As far as the watch market goes, I'd rather see what happens than try to predict it. If I want a watch, can afford it and the price "seems" reasonable at the time, I buy it.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by PatrickGu

Looking back at the recession in 2007-2008. What was the Rolex market back then?

What you have is not the recession back then. Its like 100x times bigger. LOL

There are way way way too many ppl with rose colored glasses on. Seriously ask yourselves is a watch REALLY a necessity in these times? Luxury items are the first things that get dumped in these climates. I know guys thinning out their collection in droves and they aren't even flippers and honestly they aren't even hurting that bad financially. They just feel more safe and secure with their monies elsewhere rather than watches.

It takes a while to reflect - grays will NOT lower prices dramatically overnight and I know grays that wont sell for a loss at all and will hold as long as they can. Just look at individual sellers sold prices because they are selling them by themselves because grays are offering LESS than that. That is the REAL market price when you try to sell.

Like I said to everyone that has this discussion GO TRY to actually sell your hot SS watches. Your price u will get offered is much much lower than you would expect.

[danyvw]

Originally Posted by peterpl

What you have is not the recession back then. Its like 100x times bigger. LOL

There are way way way too many ppl with rose colored glasses on. Seriously ask yourselves is a watch REALLY a necessity in these times? Luxury items are the first things that get dumped in these climates. I know guys thinning out their collection in droves and they aren't even flippers and honestly they aren't even hurting that bad financially. They just feel more safe and secure with their monies elsewhere rather than watches.

It takes a while to reflect - grays will NOT lower prices dramatically overnight and I know grays that wont sell for a loss at all and will hold as long as they can. Just look at individual sellers sold prices because they are selling them by themselves because grays are offering LESS than that. That is the REAL market price when you try to sell.

Like I said to everyone that has this discussion GO TRY to actually sell your hot SS watches. Your price u will get offered is much much lower than you would expect.

^^^^What he said.

[djyolky]

Originally Posted by B2 Stealth

I purchased 2 Rolex, 2 Tudors and a $21000 wedding ring to replace the one I bought my wife in college 38 years ago from my AD--all in the past year. I've been on the waiting list for a SS Pepsi since its inception. When I inquired yesterday I was jokingly told not to be so greedy. I have a great relationship with the AD and we joke around a lot so the answer was funny to me but shows the demand is still strong. I will keep waiting for the Rolex Pepsi while enjoying my Batman and Tudor BB GMT. Have a great Memorial Day weekend!

You really need to find a different AD! Lol

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[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by peterpl

There are way way way too many ppl with rose colored glasses on

I say the opposite is true. There are way way way too many people thinking this is the end of the world as we know it.

Yes, there is going to be pain. Yes, this sucks. Yes, I agree we haven't felt the true impact of what has just happened.

We're experiencing a demand shock and that's not good for the short term economic outlook. Maybe not good for the medium term. But, I have yet to read a convincing argument that this is the start of some long-term global depression. Far too many unqualified people are spewing doom and gloom, and you cannot overlook the true reality. Human beings thrive and demand interaction. We will eventually be back to normal, and probably a helluva lot sooner than we think.

In terms of watches, I'm sure I can anecdotally find people selling off watches. And I can anecdotally find people buying watches. If somebody needs to sell immediately they're going to likely take a hit given the fact that there is a lot of economic uncertainty is lingering. That's how anything works. Be patient and get close to the prevailing market price, or generate cash now and take whatever a buyer is willing to give you.

[Meyrin]

"One authorized dealer (…) adding that he thought it was good for the market that they remain too rare to be sold to walk-up customers.

“I don’t want to see [Rolex Submariner] Hulks in windows. Demand should exceed supply for these special watches,” he suggests."

How incredibly arrogant and pompous. I was just such a "walk-up" customer in 1996 when I bought my Sub new from an AD. That is the way it used to be, and back then buying a Rolex was in effect no different from buying a washing machine. Everything was on display and available to buy, with the exception of the Daytona. You just needed to have the money to spend.

This sort of disgraceful, arrant rubbish being spouted out by some AD is precisely the reason why so many potential Rolex customers are turned off by the ridiculous shenanigans and games that are involved in trying to buy a new Rolex nowadays. It really is a crying shame, and I for one don't expect things to change for the better.

[Yuri.Popov]

I would imagine so, let see where things take us for the rest of this year.

[nachopc]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Give it three to five months and check back as real estate / retail defaults affect the market and consumer sentiment. It's not helping matters today that central banks / bankers are trying to paper over the mess they greatly helped create, and thus goosing-up stocks, etc.

Give it time, the tide will turn once today's hangover goes away. jmho

So you basically think some people, business, etc, will go bust and the lists will be gone, right ?


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[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by djyolky

You really need to find a different AD! Lol

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I thought the same. A pepsi is not that hard to come by.

[Heff]

Originally Posted by LJubel328

I thought the same. A pepsi is not that hard to come by.

Lol. Ok guy.


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[garyk]

I hope everything and everybody is OK and a year from now we can have this discussion based on facts...stay safe...

[AK797]

I have a feeling the Rolex and Patek markets will prove pretty resilient, I don't expect the situation to favour buyers for some time.

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Listen, industry insiders want to create th illusion of business as normal and not scare folks. No salesman ever says wow, demand has died, haven’t seen a costumer in weeks. Just look and watch the gray market. Same watches are sitting there and in the sales section once hit watches like the 5 digit gmt are not sold after several pages of bumps. The top .0001 percent may not be impacted but everyone else is or will be, and there is not enough .0001 per centers to keep demand at levels prepandemic; it’s simply math.

Well said

[Batmannr1]

Outlook for ADs is looking bad. Rolex will survive, but the two local ADs with multiple shops are losing money fast. Their best clients, who can get VAT refunds, the thousands of tourists from outside the EU, are nowhere to be seen anymore . ADs cases are filling up with DJs, DDs and PMs. Who will buy those now?
Does that mean the waitlisted domestic client will have a better chance to get a in demand timepiece?

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by Batmannr1

Does that mean the waitlisted domestic client will have a better chance to get a in demand timepiece?

Probably not. If anything, I see AD's pushing more bundles on customers, or walking the hot pieces out the back door to a gray dealer.

The belief that there is going to be substantially more SS Rolex/Patek/APs available to Joe Customer just isn't going to happen. At least not now.

[Stripiest]

Originally Posted by peterpl

What you have is not the recession back then. Its like 100x times bigger. LOL

There are way way way too many ppl with rose colored glasses on. Seriously ask yourselves is a watch REALLY a necessity in these times? Luxury items are the first things that get dumped in these climates. I know guys thinning out their collection in droves and they aren't even flippers and honestly they aren't even hurting that bad financially. They just feel more safe and secure with their monies elsewhere rather than watches.

It takes a while to reflect - grays will NOT lower prices dramatically overnight and I know grays that wont sell for a loss at all and will hold as long as they can. Just look at individual sellers sold prices because they are selling them by themselves because grays are offering LESS than that. That is the REAL market price when you try to sell.

Like I said to everyone that has this discussion GO TRY to actually sell your hot SS watches. Your price u will get offered is much much lower than you would expect.

Probably slightly controversial to go in with this as my first post, but not only that - there was a collapse in 2007/2008 and even ... discounting. The thing is, no one knows how this will play out this time. My stock market investments are down about 1.5 per cent from their peak (earlier in April they were 30 per cent down). I think that's insane optimism. But maybe it isn't, and if it isn't, I don't see the situation changing. If it is, the flippers will disappear.

[SudiYunus]

IMO,
everyone is correct, since everyone is talking about different topics fr different angles too, here.
Watch sales will drop for sure, but Rolex, PP, AP would be hit much "less" than other brands, because of the different target markets, which would be less significant, therefore u still can't walk into ADs n find hot models on display in 3-12 mths.
I have witnessed 1997, 2008 crises, the rich (75% of Rolex, PP, AP target markets) gets richer, no matter what.
And based on what is going on with other luxury brand of goods, such as Chanel, Gucci, LV, Bulgari, Tiffany's ..., they increase their pricelist already, n I strongly believe Rolex, PP n AP will follow suit.

https://www.businessinsider.com/fash...-prices-2020-5.

https://www.businessinsider.com/weal...n-china-2020-4

Good luck n stay healthy for our next timepiece/s

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by nachopc

So you basically think some people, business, etc, will go bust and the lists will be gone, right ?

Not gone, though demand will reduce. Consumer sentiment has already changed, yet there's much more downside to come. Much more. Give it time.

Yes the 1% will be fine. In fact they're probably well-positioned to benefit from this crisis. As usual, the little guys will be crushed. Sales in a few industries such as luxury audio and musical instruments has actually increased in the past months.

Then again free money is raining down as central banks have been buying $2,400,000,000 ($2.4 billion) PER HOUR of financial assets. That free cash flow has to benefit someone's paycheck.

[Harry-57]

The 1-5% of the population who own 95-99% of the wealth treat recessions as fire sales. They will buy what they want no matter what. The question is, what percentage of Rolex sales does this demographic represent? Until we know this, we can make any assumptions we like and they will all be valid, because we know nothing.

[Mystro]

Take out "pandemic" and you could post this exact thread 4 years ago when most said the price increase will pass. "Wait it out, it has to change", "This is unsustainable", etc...

Rolex is a block of granite in a rainstorm. When you see watches sitting in your dealers display cases will there ever be a significant price change from where they have established them self at now. $1500 up or down is still not anywhere near msrp at the current market value. When your AD calls you for a Black Sub and gives you $800 off msrp is when you can say it was like it was 10 years ago. I am pretty sure that is what I got discounted off my new LVc from one of our trusted sellers but no one was outraged my grey dealer charged me less than msrp at the time.

[Calatrava r]

You are trying to buy at the wrong time. The factories are shut and there is no supply. No one knows what the supply will be going forward this year. The demand for the hot watches may have slackened some but it still far outpaces supply. As others said, six or more months from now the market could be totally different, i.e.. much softer as the economic consequences of all this are more widely known.

[BaselWorld]

Of course nothing will change. Both Rolex and Patek will produce even less of their most popular models. Demand is - even in the current situation - far higher than supply. This will also be the case in half a year. I was told by a large European Patek AD earlier this week, that AD‘s in typical tourist destinations will almost get no stock until the end of the year.

[DG123]

Originally Posted by BaselWorld

Of course nothing will change. Both Rolex and Patek will produce even less of their most popular models. Demand is - even in the current situation - far higher than supply. This will also be the case in half a year. I was told by a large European Patek AD earlier this week, that AD‘s in typical tourist destinations will almost get no stock until the end of the year.

My guess is that the DateJust is Rolex "most popular" model.

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by Heff

Lol. Ok guy.


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When the poster bought four watches and $21k worth of jewelry in a short period of time my I'd expect him to be higher on the list. Of course this largely depends on where the poster is located (e.g. 4 watches + $21k won't get you far in a larger metropolitan city; however, most places it is a good amount of money spent).