Nothing changes. The waiting lists continue

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by UmichNJ

I would also add that, relative to 2008, asset prices are strong. The stock market has regained most of its decline and residential real estate prices are steady. Unemployment is highest in service industries, and by deduction, lower income earners. I’m sure that many were Rolex customers, but I think the higher-end consumer is much better off than in 2008/2009.


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The marginal Rolex buyer has been hit the hardest as they are the ones suffering from layoffs and business disruption. No doubt the higher end consumer has been less affected but make no mistake that the pain is reaching pretty far up the food chain. Many high earning execs are getting salaries cut and bonuses are getting eliminated. The pain reliever is the Fed propping up the market thus safeguarding the wealth effect. If the market bottoms out again coupled with pay cuts and no bonuses then our high end Rolex buyers will be putting off buying watches for sure. If banks start to put the squeeze on their commercial real estate clients for late payments then you can cross that wealthy clientele off the Rolex buying list.

Its about duration, most Rolex buyers can handle the pain level thus far. But if a second wave hits and this goes on for the next 5-6 months all but the very wealthiest will have Rolex purchases way down on their priority lists.

[Stripiest]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

I think its universal. Globalization means every country effects each other.

One of the assumptions in this thread is that Rolex customers are largely wealthy. Agreed, but what does wealthy mean? I ask, because I work in a job where I have contact with a number of HNWI, ranging from tens of millions to over a billion, and thinking of the watches I've seen, I've see Pateks, APs, Hublots and others, but the only Rolexes I've ever seen have been on a Monaco lawyer and a security guy for one of the HNWIs. Is it different in the US? Or are the HNWIs going into the Rolex AD and being told to get lost?

It's obviously not a representative sample as such.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Stripiest

One of the assumptions in this thread is that Rolex customers are largely wealthy. Agreed, but what does wealthy mean? I ask, because I work in a job where I have contact with a number of HNWI, ranging from tens of millions to over a billion, and thinking of the watches I've seen, I've see Pateks, APs, Hublots and others, but the only Rolexes I've ever seen have been on a Monaco lawyer and a security guy for one of the HNWIs. Is it different in the US? Or are the HNWIs going into the Rolex AD and being told to get lost?

It's obviously not a representative sample as such.

Well they might have not been wearing a Rolex during your encounter with them.

You can look at the membership of this forum. There are quite a few members here completely insulated from economic downfalls and they can purchase whatever they want at any time.

Those particular individuals aren’t personally out of income because they couldn’t go to work as a bartender or hair stylist.

Lower wage workers got hammered with the economic crisis, but so far, the Rolex buyers really have not been that affected, especially when compared to ‘08. Certainly some on the fringes are delaying their purchase, but those with funds are spending.

[Deppe]

Originally Posted by BillA

A lot of guessing here, of course, none of us have a crystal ball what the future of the watch market is going to be.

And that is exactly my point. The problem is not that people guess, the problem is that people are treating their guesses as facts without anything material to support it. 2-3 months back, a lot of threads got locked due to the hostility when people were discussing whether prices would rise or fall due to covid-19 because people would stand so hard on their own position, like it was a fact.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Well they might have not been wearing a Rolex during your encounter with them.

You can look at the membership of this forum. There are quite a few members here completely insulated from economic downfalls and they can purchase whatever they want at any time.

Those particular individuals aren’t personally out of income because they couldn’t go to work as a bartender or hair stylist.

Lower wage workers got hammered with the economic crisis, but so far, the Rolex buyers really have not been that affected, especially when compared to ‘08. Certainly some on the fringes are delaying their purchase, but those with funds are spending.

^^^yup. A $17k watch purchase isn't going to slow anyone down even moderately wealthy.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Johnpierpontmorgan

Look at global central banks balance sheet

And US helicopter money with free monthly payouts is likely to continue

Most banks expecting fed balance sheet will expand to 12 trillion, currently at 7 trillion, and 3.8 trillion back in sep2019 (when they first started with repos to save the financial system last year). Dating further back, the balance sheet was 0.8 trillion in 2008


Debt monetisation is what keeping collectibles and luxury brands (like Chanel and LV) to hike price twice this year, with Chanel raising more than 20% one year alone.

Chinese markets are strong, luxury brands such as Rolex sells around 30% to china and they have been queueing up in luxury brands outlet like Chanel and JLC after the lockdown was removed

Great post and wonderful to hear from someone in Singapore. Central bank balance sheet expansion has been breathtaking!

BTW: High-end audio sales have experienced an increase from many vendors I've spoken with. Of course being on Staycation while not spending on travel...

We live in interesting times.

[superpop]

Rich people are typically not dumb, well for the most part. Most got rich because either they inherited a bunch of money, or they earned it through hard work and savvy. Most rich people I know do not spend money when the tide is going out. They wait, keep the powder dry and hoard liquidity. They do this so they can catch the upswing. As someone who can afford to buy any Rolex I want, the last thing I am looking at right now is spending money on an expensive watch that is not liquid. Cash is king kids, not jewelry. I would rather buy stock or real estate on the cheap.

[Yess]

Originally Posted by superpop

Rich people are typically not dumb, well for the most part. Most got rich because either they inherited a bunch of money, or they earned it through hard work and savvy. Most rich people I know do not spend money when the tide is going out. They wait, keep the powder dry and hoard liquidity. They do this so they can catch the upswing. As someone who can afford to buy any Rolex I want, the last thing I am looking at right now is spending money on an expensive watch that is not liquid. Cash is king kids, not jewelry. I would rather buy stock or real estate on the cheap.

So a $10k watch would mean you can't purchase stock or real estate? I would be mindful of taking on dept in your position.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Stripiest

One of the assumptions in this thread is that Rolex customers are largely wealthy. Agreed, but what does wealthy mean?

MOST Rolex customers are wealthy? That must be the funniest quote of the century.

MOST Rolex owners are NOT wealthy but everyday hard working people. They have 9-5 jobs.
These are the guys that have been impacted MOST from recent economic times.

If you think Rolex purely target the top 1% and those customers are what caused the bubble your in fantasy land.

[Johnpierpontmorgan]

Originally Posted by Yess

So a $10k watch would mean you can't purchase stock or real estate? I would be mindful of taking on dept in your position.

Yeah totally agree. Like myself, I have keep a lot of dry powder on the sidelines but if I am going to purchase a Rolex today, it wouldn’t affect the cash reserves too much.

An individual stock can go to zero because of overlevered balance sheet or insufficient cash flows (Worse case would be suddenly taking a high non recurring expenses or hidden accounting issues) A Rolex has less uncertainty from human fraudulent element and more price predictability (even oil can go to negative, would a Rolex watch be worse than that? And real estate has higher price volatility than watches because they are usually leverage investments) of cos every asset will be impacted but price is more predictable as mention

Asset diversification in portfolio is important. It reduces my overall risks

[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by peterpl

MOST Rolex customers are wealthy? That must be the funniest quote of the century.

MOST Rolex owners are NOT wealthy but everyday hard working people. They have 9-5 jobs.
These are the guys that have been impacted MOST from recent economic times.

If you think Rolex purely target the top 1% and those customers are what caused the bubble your in fantasy land.

On an earlier post where you’ve confidently quoted 5-6 different stats, I asked you for source. You seem to have a lot of numbers at hand including crashing prices, Rolex ownership data, Rolex stocks at greys, and what not on some threads ...

Are you a Rolex insider?
A trade journalist?
An industry analyst?

Would love to know how your data comes through.

[superpop]

Originally Posted by Yess

So a $10k watch would mean you can't purchase stock or real estate? I would be mindful of taking on dept in your position.

That's not what I said genius. And if you are going to make a snarky comment at least check your spelling.

[Glenmorangie77]

So interesting to see the varied opinions on this thread. From experience in the stock market and sports betting, when everyone is on one side of the thought process the contrarian outcome usually happens...not always but much more often than not.

In the current market, it seems to be very split between those that believe high end watch pricing will drop significantly and those that are convinced models such as the hot Rolex SS pieces will not drop much at all.

Once there's a majority opinion, lean the other direction and you'll be good!

[Johnpierpontmorgan]

Originally Posted by Glenmorangie77

So interesting to see the varied opinions on this thread. From experience in the stock market and sports betting, when everyone is on one side of the thought process the contrarian outcome usually happens...not always but much more often than not.

In the current market, it seems to be very split between those that believe high end watch pricing will drop significantly and those that are convinced models such as the hot Rolex SS pieces will not drop much at all.

Once there's a majority opinion, lean the other direction and you'll be good!

Typically so when there is overwhelming majority, usually not 60:40 majority ratio but more like 80:20 or 90:10 (for contrarian approach to work)

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by sgwatchguy

On an earlier post where you’ve confidently quoted 5-6 different stats, I asked you for source. You seem to have a lot of numbers at hand including crashing prices, Rolex ownership data, Rolex stocks at greys, and what not on some threads ...
\

What stats do you want? Its common knowledge Rolex target audience is the working class. NOT the elite 1%. Your in the wrong watch forum and brand if you think Rolex are targeting the Elite top 1%ers and that means you know nothing about Rolex history and their roots of their customers.

There is a reason why many on here still consider Rolex "Tool" watches. Because they were used as tools and aids for working duties.

[BillA]

I would surmise from all the posts the following:

Guys/gals who are big earners, lots of capital will keep buying when the AD calls.

Rank and file employees, who have been saving money each month to buy a watch are going to be hurt.

I would have to think that the AD’s list are long for hot models and will have no trouble working down their lists to sell a hot piece.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by BillA

I would surmise from all the posts the following:
Guys/gals who are big earners, lots of capital will keep buying when the AD calls.
Rank and file employees, who have been saving money each month to buy a watch are going to be hurt.
I would have to think that the AD’s list are long for hot models and will have no trouble working down their lists to sell a hot piece.

100% spot on. Wait lists at ADs wont improve as most ppl will and are willing to pay MSRP. The Gray market and individual sellers are the ones that are going to hurt. The ones trying to sell ABOVE MSRP.

I dont think anyone is debating that getting pieces at a discount from an AD is on the cards. Their wait list would be long enough to ride this out easily.

The main point here is that gray market price, repeat gray market and individual classifieds will suffer. Most hyped watches will approach MSRP.

It wont be crazy prices like we saw 12 months ago, it will still be slight premium but only slight.

IMHO its a good thing for all watch lovers the gray prices for hyped models are decreasing. If your buying for enjoyment who cares. And if your buying to flip well your in for a world of pain in the next 6-12 months.

I feel for the person who bought BLNRs for $15k+. I think DavidSW sold one for $23k. LOL - i really hope the buyers bought it because it absolutely loved those pieces.

[kaiserphoenix]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Those are asking prices. If you want to know the true market value, try selling your watch to a grey

Exactly. So many people don't understand this as I appreciate some may have never sold a watch before. But many watches have a very wide Bid/Ask Spread. Watches like the Daytona or Pepsi tend to have very SMALL spreads as volume is high and many reference points for prices. But take say a Nautilus, or FPJ Chronometre Bleu. The spread is VERY high, what you see on C24 or whatever is NOT the price you will get, some times quite far from it.

[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by peterpl

What stats do you want? Its common knowledge Rolex target audience is the working class. NOT the elite 1%. Your in the wrong watch forum and brand if you think Rolex are targeting the Elite top 1%ers and that means you know nothing about Rolex history and their roots of their customers.

There is a reason why many on here still consider Rolex "Tool" watches. Because they were used as tools and aids for working duties.

I know enough of their history and enough of their present, thank you. A study of the current Rolex portfolio would show that their “tool watch” days are consigned to history, for better or worse it doesn’t matter. I’ll leave it at that.

Since your brought it up... Considering you’re firmly in the 1%, based on your posts on other threads where you talk about your net worth, maybe your time is better invested on forums focused on UHNWI. I’m happy here.

I’ll take it then you have no data for the all numbers that you bandy about in various threads, “common knowledge” should be easy to back up.

[barters]

Lists will remain strong for the hot watches. Wait times are so long that even if they shorten 25% it’s still long enough to maintain that sense of limited availability.

The secondary market prices I really think will deflate though. I bought a SS Daytona in 2011 & paid 15% over RRP. Today the mark up is easily over 50% for the ceramic version.
I could see that premium halving over the next 12-18 months to +25% without much drama.


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[Ranger67]

Originally Posted by Stripiest

One of the assumptions in this thread is that Rolex customers are largely wealthy. Agreed, but what does wealthy mean? I ask, because I work in a job where I have contact with a number of HNWI, ranging from tens of millions to over a billion, and thinking of the watches I've seen, I've see Pateks, APs, Hublots and others, but the only Rolexes I've ever seen have been on a Monaco lawyer and a security guy for one of the HNWIs. Is it different in the US? Or are the HNWIs going into the Rolex AD and being told to get lost?

It's obviously not a representative sample as such.

Running my own chauffeur company we drive A list celebs, musicians, HNWI etc hardly ever see a Rolex on those, where I do see them most is people I expect in the £75k plus wage range, one client I drive with a net worth of £50 million wears a £1.99 Casio.

[Swaye]

Originally Posted by Mystro

I am not saying I am in the market to buy but I am always ready to take advantage of a situation where I can get a deal. I have money in hand and will buy if I see a deal. I have been watching all my sources that I have used in the past. I don't see any significant deals. There is a few that are down a tick of a few hundred dollars but we are no where near close to msrp on any model, let alone a new SS model. Even other hot models from other brands haven't moved any great amount. Bottom line....There is no fire sales from what I have seen.

There was a small blip of a couple of weeks where some real deals could be found due to mild panic selling at the start of all this, since then, nada (at least for me and I am always on the hunt). I fell into two great deals right at the covid start, but nothing since. Prices seem to have come down some, but prices were slowly trending down before all this from the mid-year 2019 highs. I am still hoping for more 25% off fire sales but I am not seeing them anywhere. New normal attained it looks like to me.

[Ace775]

ADs prefer to keep the hype alive as they continue to make money by back channelling their steel pieces at a premium . It’s the same story everywhere unless you’re a heavy slender. This article really doesn’t prove anything I guess .


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[Piguette]

So early.

[Tricolore66]

I do think Rolex has a huge advantage here, since they are largely manufactured in-house and don't rely on completely manufactured sub-systems from suppliers as would something like an automobile manufacturer. My guess is that they mostly rely on steel, gold, gemstones in their supply chain, and their manufactured product can be shipped globally within a few days. Being such a private company also plays in their favor, as they can focus on products and not meeting expectations of the financial markets.

I've been content enough (imagine that!) with my collection that I've spent little time on this forum and even much less checking out the the various trusted seller websites since the beginning of the year. Earlier this week I was curious and took a look at pricing, and not much has changed as far as asking prices go. Possibly a few pieces that were overheated in value (116500, new BLNR, 5711, 5167) have come down slightly, but that was really in motion pre-CV. Most of the other bread and butter pieces were priced more or less where they were. I am incredibly curious as to what prices deals are actually being made at though, as that is the only number that truly matters in the discussion. I'm tempted to buy something now just to find out!

Common sense would indicate that for us individual collectors/hobbyists that it's not a good time to sell, so why would you if you didn't have to right now? That would naturally lead into thinking that anyone selling now needs to sell, and a "blood in the water" mentality. I would truly hate to deal with the kind of offers that private sellers are today!

Originally Posted by DG123

I do mostly agree with what you've written here, especially that AD's have suffered from 2 to 3 months of having their shop doors closed for business.
However on the subject of "supply issues", if in fact Rolex Switzerland production is now again up and running, my guess is that the company can continue to produce watches as it has traditionally done.

[Stripiest]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Well they might have not been wearing a Rolex during your encounter with them.

You can look at the membership of this forum. There are quite a few members here completely insulated from economic downfalls and they can purchase whatever they want at any time.

Those particular individuals aren’t personally out of income because they couldn’t go to work as a bartender or hair stylist.

Lower wage workers got hammered with the economic crisis, but so far, the Rolex buyers really have not been that affected, especially when compared to ‘08. Certainly some on the fringes are delaying their purchase, but those with funds are spending.

True, although these are not people I've had one encounter with, and, interestingly, although I never thought about it until just now, I can't think of a single one whom I've seen with different watches.

And I can't speak for the US, but in the UK, "consensual" salary cuts have been common, even amongst high earners.

[Stripiest]

Originally Posted by peterpl

MOST Rolex customers are wealthy? That must be the funniest quote of the century.

MOST Rolex owners are NOT wealthy but everyday hard working people. They have 9-5 jobs.
These are the guys that have been impacted MOST from recent economic times.

If you think Rolex purely target the top 1% and those customers are what caused the bubble your in fantasy land.

Thanks for "your" input.

[Stripiest]

Originally Posted by Ranger67

Running my own chauffeur company we drive A list celebs, musicians, HNWI etc hardly ever see a Rolex on those, where I do see them most is people I expect in the £75k plus wage range, one client I drive with a net worth of £50 million wears a £1.99 Casio.

Ha, brilliant. Do you find lots of people wear Apple watches and Fitbits too? I see a lot of that.

I think you're right about the salary range, at least in the UK.

[Stripiest]

Originally Posted by peterpl

100% spot on. Wait lists at ADs wont improve as most ppl will and are willing to pay MSRP. The Gray market and individual sellers are the ones that are going to hurt. The ones trying to sell ABOVE MSRP.

I dont think anyone is debating that getting pieces at a discount from an AD is on the cards. Their wait list would be long enough to ride this out easily.

The main point here is that gray market price, repeat gray market and individual classifieds will suffer. Most hyped watches will approach MSRP.

It wont be crazy prices like we saw 12 months ago, it will still be slight premium but only slight.

IMHO its a good thing for all watch lovers the gray prices for hyped models are decreasing. If your buying for enjoyment who cares. And if your buying to flip well your in for a world of pain in the next 6-12 months.

I feel for the person who bought BLNRs for $15k+. I think DavidSW sold one for $23k. LOL - i really hope the buyers bought it because it absolutely loved those pieces.

Agree with virtually all that.

[Tricolore66]

Yes, but at the expense of walk-in retail, and for most overall sales are down significantly.

Originally Posted by DG123

Most retailers with closed store fronts have been reporting 100% year over year gains for their online sales division. Streets are filled with trucks from the USPS, UPS, FedEx, Amazon etc... delivering merchandise to residential homes.