Project ARC - new headquarters and increased production

[GreenLantern]

Increasing production by 50% includes many models no one wants.

They'll still only make Three and a Half RO QP Openworked's a year.

[GreenLantern]

Who care about Ben Clymer anyway? He no longer represents the majority of collectors.

[mykii]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

Every trend has an arc (which ironically is the name of their new building), but there were so many things fundamentally wrong with Panerai’s (and IWC’s and JLC’s) distribution models, I don’t think you can equate that 1:1. Nevertheless, there is a distinct feeling that we are on the tail end of things with regard to the 70ies style Genta watches. If you look at the auction results, you can see quite clearly that the big gains were closer to the independent sphere, with so many Nautili and Royal Oaks listed that a certain perception of boredom was unavoidable. And consequently, values were stagnant on the sky high levels they’ve climbed to, but no new records were achieved, not even close. If anything, the auctions must have been a bit of a disappointment for many of those who put these watches up for sale, in great contrast to those who had a total field day with their Journes and, to a lesser extent, Langes.

The in the know crowd has been moving to that sphere for a while now, with even folks like Ben Clymer saying that he can no longer respect the Genta fad. It’s only a matter of time before the masses follow and we all want a round golden watch with a story to tell. If you’re smart, you buy your DeBethune/Akrivia/Romain Gauthier/Voutilainen now, could be impossible to come by a year from now (or if you want something truly undervalued before it’s tide comes in, get a Lange chronograph). I think AP are acutely aware of this and are trying to get the Code up to speed to have a horse on this field. And the way things are looking, it’s not exactly void of success.

Clymer said he can't respect the genta fad? Referencing what? Other watch brands ripping of the "genta styling"? Because if so I can agree with that part. But a RO, not so fast. He just wrote a long ass love story about how the RO basically remains his favorite watch only just a couple of months ago as a feature story on Hodinkee.

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by mykii

Clymer said he can't respect the genta fad? Referencing what? Other watch brands ripping of the "genta styling"? Because if so I can agree with that part. But a RO, not so fast. He just wrote a long ass love story about how the RO basically remains his favorite watch only just a couple of months ago as a feature story on Hodinkee.

It was a Radio Hodinkee thing when the green Nautilus came out. I think it wasn’t so much about the watches as it was about the people for whom they have become a m-as-tu-vu must have. Without having gone back I believe what he said was that he‘d be much more inclined to give a nod of respect to someone with an unusual watch than to any „just one more guy with a Nautilus or Royal Oak“.

[joa]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

I do worry they may go the way of panerai. I sure hope not but you never know. They have raised prices way too fast IMO and now increasing production. Sounds like a bad recipe

yes sounds like a bad idea to me too. in any case it's going to be interesting to watch..

[joa]

> If you’re smart, you buy your DeBethune/Akrivia/Romain Gauthier/Voutilainen now, could be impossible to come by a year from now

it seems to be more and more like that.

could it be that the crowd that got interested in Rolex 5 years ago moved on to AP+Patek 3 years ago and now is ready for Lange, etc. ..??

my thesis is however that a watch only "works" if there is a remote chance that the good looking law graduate girl at the cocktail bar can tell a Lange. I am convinced that is the secret behind Rolex + APs success with mid 30's-50's guys, only 5% of them buy the watches for appreciation of watch nerd...aehm connoisseurs

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by joa

> If you’re smart, you buy your DeBethune/Akrivia/Romain Gauthier/Voutilainen now, could be impossible to come by a year from now

it seems to be more and more like that.

could it be that the crowd that got interested in Rolex 5 years ago moved on to AP+Patek 3 years ago and now is ready for Lange, etc. ..??

my thesis is however that a watch only "works" if there is a remote chance that the good looking law graduate girl at the cocktail bar can tell a Lange. I am convinced that is the secret behind Rolex + APs success with mid 30's-50's guys, only 5% of them buy the watches for appreciation of watch nerd...aehm connoisseurs

I uh…hate to be the one to break it to you, but I think she’s probably not a recent ‘law school grad’…lol.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by joa

> If you’re smart, you buy your DeBethune/Akrivia/Romain Gauthier/Voutilainen now, could be impossible to come by a year from now

it seems to be more and more like that.

could it be that the crowd that got interested in Rolex 5 years ago moved on to AP+Patek 3 years ago and now is ready for Lange, etc. ..??

my thesis is however that a watch only "works" if there is a remote chance that the good looking law graduate girl at the cocktail bar can tell a Lange. I am convinced that is the secret behind Rolex + APs success with mid 30's-50's guys, only 5% of them buy the watches for appreciation of watch nerd...aehm connoisseurs

Even if Lange becomes hype I still won't buy it. I can appreciate the datograph but I still wouldn't own the watch.

Also the good looking law graduate girls at the cocktail bar can't tell an AP or patek either let alone a Lange

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

The in the know crowd has been moving to that sphere for a while now, with even folks like Ben Clymer saying that he can no longer respect the Genta fad.

Well, if I hear Clymer I think $6k travel watch with a $50 surplus movement, and I know how much I care about what he has to say.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

I uh…hate to be the one to break it to you, but I think she’s probably not a recent ‘law school grad’…lol.

[GoingPlaces]

So even with increased production, will that ease demand enough? Or just a dent?

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by joa

my thesis is however that a watch only "works" if there is a remote chance that the good looking law graduate girl at the cocktail bar can tell a Lange. I am convinced that is the secret behind Rolex + APs success with mid 30's-50's guys, only 5% of them buy the watches for appreciation of watch nerd...aehm connoisseurs

I’m quite convinced this is correct, albeit perhaps not quite in these exact terms. Whether our assessment is correct or not (nine times out of ten it probably isn’t), there’s probably a „does this make me look attractive and successful“ quotient to any watch purchasing decision we make. But then again, I am of course a male law school graduate who’s just entering the age bracket you describe, so perhaps that’s a bias to my perspective.

My point though is that under the surface, we’re all still Darwinian animals. As such, we have an intrinsic need to project strength, power and status, in hopes that it may help us perpetuate our genes.

A Rolex or an octagonal AP is, in theory well suited to that, as you mention. But it’s also self defeating. There comes a point where each of your peers has one, and what good a differentiation is it at that point?

Even if women were so superficial (my experience is that the small subset that is isn’t representative), they‘d have a hard time making your Submariner out among all the other ones. It’s mathematical. And the same is increasingly true for Genta steel pieces.

Everything becomes less cool with mass adoption and standardization as time progresses. That’s why things eventually jump the shark.

And when it happens, you need something else to distinguish yourself.

Also, we have to keep in mind that you’re not truly using the watch to impress that girl at the bar (as somewhere deep down you know her not to be as simple minded), but instead, to impress yourself into a level of confidence which, in turn, will impress her. Ultimately, whether she recognizes your watch or not is entirely irrelevant. So long as you yourself know what it is and it gives you a big enough sense of superiority to feel (and look) distinctively strong and assertive in the crowd that surrounds you, you may just be successful in convincing her to perpetuate the species with you.

That’s where your Lange and the independents come in. She may just perceive them as part of an overall attractive appearance, but it truly is what made you walk that little bit more upright and smile that little bit more comfortably (and hence to her eyes, what made you that little bit taller and more resplendent than the other guys)… because you knew that on that night, you won the watch game.

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Well, if I hear Clymer I think $6k travel watch with a $50 surplus movement, and I know how much I care about what he has to say.

Note my use of „even“

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

I’m quite convinced this is correct, albeit perhaps not quite in these exact terms. Whether our assessment is correct or not (nine times out of ten it probably isn’t), there’s probably a „does this make me look attractive and successful“ quotient to any watch purchasing decision we make. But then again, I am of course a male law school graduate who’s just entering the age bracket you describe, so perhaps that’s a bias to my perspective.

My point though is that under the surface, we’re all still Darwinian animals. As such, we have an intrinsic need to project strength, power and status, in hopes that it may help us perpetuate our genes.

A Rolex or an octagonal AP is, in theory well suited to that, as you mention. But it’s also self defeating. There comes a point where each of your peers has one, and what good a differentiation is it at that point?

Even if women were so superficial (my experience is that the small subset that is isn’t representative), they‘d have a hard time making your Submariner out among all the other ones. It’s mathematical. And the same is increasingly true for Genta steel pieces.

Everything becomes less cool with mass adoption and standardization as time progresses. That’s why things eventually jump the shark.

And when it happens, you need something else to distinguish yourself.

Also, we have to keep in mind that you’re not truly using the watch to impress that girl at the bar (as somewhere deep down you know her not to be as simple minded), but instead, to impress yourself into a level of confidence which, in turn, will impress her. Ultimately, whether she recognizes your watch or not is entirely irrelevant. So long as you yourself know what it is and it gives you a big enough sense of superiority to feel (and look) distinctively strong and assertive in the crowd that surrounds you, you may just be successful in convincing her to perpetuate the species with you.

That’s where your Lange and the independents come in. She may just perceive them as part of an overall attractive appearance, but it truly is what made you walk that little bit more upright and smile that little bit more comfortably (and hence to her eyes, what made you that little bit taller and more resplendent than the other guys)… because you knew that on that night, you won the watch game.

Yeah, when everyone has a G5, it becomes so uncool! I kid, I kid. I would not have disagreed with your logic when I was your age.

I think the reality is once you get out of the major cities like Zurich and London, you won’t see another AP of any kind. And changing from 40k to 50 or 60k is not going to change that especially when existing collectors probably have an appetite for 2-3 more watches per year.

What id be really curious about is if the quote from AP about declining requests had new or existing clients in mind when the answer was formed.

[Reign]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

So even with increased production, will that ease demand enough? Or just a dent?

Small dent. AP thinks demand is like 4x today but will never hit that.

One thing hard to predict is as supply increases and there’ll inevitably be flippers, the extra supply could dampen demand and less people will want it. Quite circular


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dauster]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

I’m quite convinced this is correct, albeit perhaps not quite in these exact terms. Whether our assessment is correct or not (nine times out of ten it probably isn’t), there’s probably a „does this make me look attractive and successful“ quotient to any watch purchasing decision we make. But then again, I am of course a male law school graduate who’s just entering the age bracket you describe, so perhaps that’s a bias to my perspective.

My point though is that under the surface, we’re all still Darwinian animals. As such, we have an intrinsic need to project strength, power and status, in hopes that it may help us perpetuate our genes.

A Rolex or an octagonal AP is, in theory well suited to that, as you mention. But it’s also self defeating. There comes a point where each of your peers has one, and what good a differentiation is it at that point?

Even if women were so superficial (my experience is that the small subset that is isn’t representative), they‘d have a hard time making your Submariner out among all the other ones. It’s mathematical. And the same is increasingly true for Genta steel pieces.

Everything becomes less cool with mass adoption and standardization as time progresses. That’s why things eventually jump the shark.

And when it happens, you need something else to distinguish yourself.

Also, we have to keep in mind that you’re not truly using the watch to impress that girl at the bar (as somewhere deep down you know her not to be as simple minded), but instead, to impress yourself into a level of confidence which, in turn, will impress her. Ultimately, whether she recognizes your watch or not is entirely irrelevant. So long as you yourself know what it is and it gives you a big enough sense of superiority to feel (and look) distinctively strong and assertive in the crowd that surrounds you, you may just be successful in convincing her to perpetuate the species with you.

That’s where your Lange and the independents come in. She may just perceive them as part of an overall attractive appearance, but it truly is what made you walk that little bit more upright and smile that little bit more comfortably (and hence to her eyes, what made you that little bit taller and more resplendent than the other guys)… because you knew that on that night, you won the watch game.

how about buying expensive items purely for myself? is there a little truth to what you are saying sure but I personally buy stuff because it makes me feel good and adds to the overall "vibe" that I am feeling that day/ or even month and yes if I wasnt married it might make me more confident to talk to women but that's not the point.

could be obscure french tailoring like a sports jacket from camps de luca or a nice vicuna coat whatever - without logos most people cant see it anyway or more likely dont even care.

[dchang81]

It's funny I got my 15202 because I loved the styling and specifically because the vast majority of people had no idea what it was.

[joa]

Originally Posted by dchang81

It's funny I got my 15202 because I loved the styling and specifically because the vast majority of people had no idea what it was.

congrats on the 15202... i think she's the ultimate queen. with that clean and calm dial, undisturbed by any second hand or unneeded features

yep clearly the darwin/competition model discussed here, cannot like any model of social behavior, claim universal applicability)