Pricing discussion

[pandapanda01]

Hey everyone

I have been looking to get a 26240st blue dial 50th anniversary. Any thoughts if price should drop even more because they are still producing the model but without the 50th rotor? How about some over all thoughts on the AP market?
Not looking to get it for an investment, just want to purchase it at a decent time incase I want to trade it for a future purchase.

[Fifteen]

Gray prices will definitely go down throughout 2023. Wouldn’t be surprised if most models go as low as MSRP+tax by end July, and lower than MSRP+tax by December.

For that specific model, I think it will always be slightly higher than the MSRP of a non 50th, but the premium will continue to go down the next couple years.

Long term (5+ years), all 50th models may be valuable again, but never to the levels of 2022. Those days are long over

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Fifteen

Gray prices will definitely go down throughout 2023. Wouldn’t be surprised if most models go as low as MSRP+tax by end July, and lower than MSRP+tax by December.

For that specific model, I think it will always be slightly higher than the MSRP of a non 50th, but the premium will continue to go down the next couple years.

Long term (5+ years), all 50th models may be valuable again, but never to the levels of 2022. Those days are long over

I agree that the early 2022 craze is unlikely to repeat. It would also be no surprise if grey prices dropped further. The medium term (1 yr) equilibrium level is not so easy to predict, IMO.

I had assumed that as shrinking premiums lead to less demand by the flipping crowd, that segment of the buying public was large enough to influence availability at the boutiques in a significant way. But I have now heard from three boutiques independently that they are busier than ever, and that has also been my observation in various visits. There is now a steady stream of customers, where previously I could chat with SAs for an hour without another soul in the store.

While we're not going back to early 2022, it's not clear that we'll return to pre-2019 with most watches readily available, or even earlier with discounts on (nearly) everything. So, no strong advice for OP, other than a reminder that predicting the future is difficult.

[westbeach]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

I agree that the early 2022 craze is unlikely to repeat. It would also be no surprise if grey prices dropped further. The medium term (1 yr) equilibrium level is not so easy to predict, IMO.

I had assumed that as shrinking premiums lead to less demand by the flipping crowd, that segment of the buying public was large enough to influence availability at the boutiques in a significant way. But I have now heard from three boutiques independently that they are busier than ever, and that has also been my observation in various visits. There is now a steady stream of customers, where previously I could chat with SAs for an hour without another soul in the store.

While we're not going back to early 2022, it's not clear that we'll return to pre-2019 with most watches readily available, or even earlier with discounts on (nearly) everything. So, no strong advice for OP, other than a reminder that predicting the future is difficult.

How much of that was due to covid restrictions or individuals mindful of covid, especially in the first 4-5 months of this year.

[Vince_76]

Go to the WatchOut forum. A ton of discussion regarding this subject.

It is clear as day that prices will continue to decline. There is no tested bottom, and velocity has slowed immensely. Prices will revert back to the historical trend line, especially given that the fed will not cut rates until 2024 (Q4 ‘23 by the most bullish estimates).

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by westbeach

How much of that was due to covid restrictions or individuals mindful of covid, especially in the first 4-5 months of this year.

The conversations/visits I referred to were in the last weeks. Claim was "busier than ever' including (but not limited to) earlier this year when the grey market peaked. One could argue that the SAs were told to claim high interest to keep up appearances, but I don't think AP is sending dummy customers to boutiques to make them look busy.

[benlee]

Originally Posted by pandapanda01

Hey everyone

I have been looking to get a 26240st blue dial 50th anniversary. Any thoughts if price should drop even more because they are still producing the model but without the 50th rotor? How about some over all thoughts on the AP market?
Not looking to get it for an investment, just want to purchase it at a decent time incase I want to trade it for a future purchase.

It is better to wait if you can. Agree with the other posters that price may fall further in the short term.

I speculated that AP has been allocating and selling watches to many of what they perceived as VIP collectors when in reality, many of them are just flipping the watches in secret for profit or buying for speculation purposes. That's why at anytime, we saw greys having a lot of inventory for hard to get references while customers at POS have to put up with increasingly long waitlist or being told no chance.

So now that the tide has turned, they are unleashed in ever larger numbers onto the grey market at the wrong time so much so that dealers are not wanting to buy anymore for fear of further price drop. I think they have really got it wrong this time. With declining resale potential, this market will be gone and they will have to fall back on collectors market, many of whom, including old timers like myself, have been totally turned off by their behaviour. Good luck on that.

Nevertheless, everything is a cycle and no one can predict the future, maybe it will rise back again in years to come.

[Xerxes77]

Nobody can predict….
If you ask this on the end of 2021 everyone tells you that the price is on the roof but then the price go on the sky……
Buy and wear what you want and enjoy…..price in this days are very hard to predict….

[GGGMT]

Wait. Crashing like a junkie 3 days out.


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[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

… I have now heard from three boutiques independently that they are busier than ever, and that has also been my observation in various visits. There is now a steady stream of customers, where previously I could chat with SAs for an hour without another soul in the store.

This is not my experience in the UK. Was in an AD a few times in the last few weeks, and it was quiet on every visit - despite being December

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by Xerxes77

Nobody can predict….
If you ask this on the end of 2021 everyone tells you that the price is on the roof but then the price go on the sky……
Buy and wear what you want and enjoy…..price in this days are very hard to predict….

I agree, 100%. Some on this forum are absolutely certain that they know what the direction of the market will be. Most say it will continue down. Personally, if I want a watch, and I feel subjectively that the price is reasonable I go ahead. Similarly if I’m not using a watch I sell it. I don’t try to predict what the market will do, just as I don’t do that with the stock market either.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

This is not my experience in the UK. Was in an AD a few times in the last few weeks, and it was quiet on every visit - despite being December

Correct. Same in the US. Visited multiple ADs and they all have seen a significant slowdown. Anyone who tells you otherwise is pulling the wool over your eyes.

[BrunoMalik]

Originally Posted by Fifteen

Gray prices will definitely go down throughout 2023. Wouldn’t be surprised if most models go as low as MSRP+tax by end July, and lower than MSRP+tax by December.

For that specific model, I think it will always be slightly higher than the MSRP of a non 50th, but the premium will continue to go down the next couple years.

Long term (5+ years), all 50th models may be valuable again, but never to the levels of 2022. Those days are long over

The certainty in your post is amusing. Where do i get a similar crystal ball to yours?

OP, if you can get the blue one anywhere at or under $50k, buy it. Its an awesome watch. Only around 500 made in that configuration with the 50th rotor so will be collectible for a long time to come


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[DentalFloss]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Correct. Same in the US. Visited multiple ADs and they all have seen a significant slowdown. Anyone who tells you otherwise is pulling the wool over your eyes.

Same for me. Also noticed that people are more "senior" (+40). Back to normal.

During the craze, I was surprised how young customers were (in their early 20s).

[train-time]

Originally Posted by DentalFloss

Same for me. Also noticed that people are more "senior" (+40). Back to normal.

During the craze, I was surprised how young customers were (in their early 20s).

Interesting observation -- could it be, the backpackers from the Facebook Groups are out of the game. What a shame... NOT!

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

This is not my experience in the UK. Was in an AD a few times in the last few weeks, and it was quiet on every visit - despite being December

AD = one of the AP boutiques in London (or the AP house)?

[911AP]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Correct. Same in the US. Visited multiple ADs and they all have seen a significant slowdown. Anyone who tells you otherwise is pulling the wool over your eyes.

AP boutiques are unchanged in availability in LA, NY, and Bal Harbor. They still can't get watches to people. Go try to buy any royal oak they'll still make you wait over a year year for a basic royal oak non blue dial. For anything special still I tell you good luck.

There is no slow down at the boutiques.

[Fifteen]

Originally Posted by BrunoMalik

The certainty in your post is amusing. Where do i get a similar crystal ball to yours?

OP, if you can get the blue one anywhere at or under $50k, buy it. Its an awesome watch. Only around 500 made in that configuration with the 50th rotor so will be collectible for a long time to come


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CapIQ and Bloomberg. Read analyst reports about the shape of the global economy. You’re welcome

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

AD = one of the AP boutiques in London (or the AP house)?

No, on the south coast

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

No, on the south coast

So not AP? My observation was specific to AP and their boutiques, which seemed to be the topic of this thread.

[Jmaster]

A friend of mine recently bought a ROO diver walked-in at the AP House in Hong Kong with no history. He was offered a number of other Offshore models to choose from, like the gold old days. I think Royal Oaks are still not widely available but Offshore is already becoming available.

[DaytonaNYC99]

Buy the watch you like that is affordable to you at the time, you can't predict the market. That said, I think it is difficult for the price of 50th models to further go down because they are so new. And as many have said, it is very unlikely for the market to return to the crazy times.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by Jmaster

A friend of mine recently bought a ROO diver walked-in at the AP House in Hong Kong with no history. He was offered a number of other Offshore models to choose from, like the gold old days. I think Royal Oaks are still not widely available but Offshore is already becoming available.

ROO are going for wayyyy under retail. Moda regularly has new and gently used current gen 43mm ROOs for anywhere from 5-15k off retail (when you factor in taxes). I really like the new ROOs but out the door they are almost 50k. They are great at $30k but not $50k.