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np2016 · 6 August 2019, 05:04 AM

I have a strong feeling that when the dow Jones is down 900 points plus. It's going to put off alot of high end luxury purchases throughout the world.

johnjm · 6 August 2019, 05:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by np2016

I have a strong feeling that when the dow Jones is down 900 points plus. It's going to put off alot of high end luxury purchases throughout the world.

The FTSE has dropped 5% since Friday. That's depressing enough.

I see S&P down over 3% so far.

Depressed.

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Commonproject · 6 August 2019, 05:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by np2016

I have a strong feeling that when the dow Jones is down 900 points plus. It's going to put off alot of high end luxury purchases throughout the world.

Insane 1-day drop.

Bearxj86 · 6 August 2019, 05:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commonproject

Insane 1-day drop.

Yep; it’s like a giant game chicken

thomaspp · 6 August 2019, 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bearxj86

The question is - What is a safe hedge for your money if you are earning RMB? A devaluation of the RMB causes Chinese to be less wealthy relative to other countries so it is safe to say that Rolex/Patek prices just increased for them. However does that fuel more buying in the ST or a complete pullback?

Stock market is pulling back, watch prices pulling back a bit...gold?

Cocaine? Lol

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Bearxj86 · 6 August 2019, 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thomaspp

Cocaine? Lol

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Lol

liljctl · 6 August 2019, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yoast

My HK Dealer told me he's not buying any 5711r at the moment due to it being too unstable.

At any price point?

WatchLurv · 6 August 2019, 04:19 PM

These protests haven't affected anything but small businesses. Yesterday's general strike, however, affected me and many others. A lot of "work from home" was issued as only the brave made it to work. Watch dealers were still available to transact.

Quote:

Originally Posted by liljctl

At any price point?

Most likely holding off as it doesnt have the upward trajectory as it has previously had from the beginning of the year to June.

brockburst · 6 August 2019, 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bearxj86

The question is - What is a safe hedge for your money if you are earning RMB? A devaluation of the RMB causes Chinese to be less wealthy relative to other countries so it is safe to say that Rolex/Patek prices just increased for them. However does that fuel more buying in the ST or a complete pullback?

Stock market is pulling back, watch prices pulling back a bit...gold?

Well, its the reason bitcoin is ripping as nationals try to get money out of the country.....capital outflows being a big fear for China.

liljctl · 6 August 2019, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by liljctl

The 5711/1R dropped about $20k

The prices by DavidSW and Tak is still at the top end of things.

And it looks like their products are moving as well.

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GB-man · 6 August 2019, 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thomaspp

Cocaine? Lol

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Leave it to Miami to talk their own book

teck21 · 6 August 2019, 11:38 PM

There’s always a lag period between an economic slowdown as is read in the papers and the actual changing of purchasing/investing decisions.

Eg someone who made up his or her mind last week to buy a GMT will likely not have decided against it simply based on what’s happened in the past two days.

If the pessimism persists though, odds are this very same person will decide later on to defer this particular purchase.

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teck21 · 6 August 2019, 11:38 PM

When wealth disappears, nobody is immune.

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Roccio · 7 August 2019, 12:39 AM

Interesting. Used Rolex prices in Japan fell sharply but Patek prices are still standing like a champ. Maybe this is the last upward movement before the bubble popping?

brockburst · 7 August 2019, 12:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roccio

Interesting. Used Rolex prices in Japan fell sharply but Patek prices are still standing like a champ. Maybe this is the last upward movement before the bubble popping?

What does the 'bubble popping' mean to you? Prices off 20%? 30%?

The reality is you still can't get the hot sports models at retail and that is UNLIKELY to change anytime soon. For a 5712 a retracement from 80k to even 60k doesn't really change much.

A971 · 7 August 2019, 01:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brockburst

What does the 'bubble popping' mean to you? Prices off 20%? 30%?

The reality is you still can't get the hot sports models at retail and that is UNLIKELY to change anytime soon. For a 5712 a retracement from 80k to even 60k doesn't really change much.

A 25% move doesn’t mean much... got it.

brockburst · 7 August 2019, 01:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A971

A 25% move doesn’t mean much... got it.

thomaspp · 7 August 2019, 01:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GB-man

Leave it to Miami to talk their own book

lol except now I live in NY

Fat_ninja · 7 August 2019, 01:30 AM

Buy buy buy
Sell sell sell

Rwatcher · 7 August 2019, 01:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Buy buy buy
Sell sell sell

GB-man · 7 August 2019, 01:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thomaspp

lol except now I live in NY

I think I saw you on 57th the other day thomas

Roccio · 7 August 2019, 02:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brockburst

What does the 'bubble popping' mean to you? Prices off 20%? 30%?

The reality is you still can't get the hot sports models at retail and that is UNLIKELY to change anytime soon. For a 5712 a retracement from 80k to even 60k doesn't really change much.

30% off would be nice, even 60K is close to retail where I live

Maybe this is a local thing but hulk hit 20k here a few months ago and crashed down to 16k for a perspective.

Bearxj86 · 7 August 2019, 02:26 AM

https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/th...tches-nautilus

np2016 · 7 August 2019, 03:31 AM

@bearxj86 thanks for the article. The 5711 and 5712 in steel are only going to continue increasing in value over time since Thierry is purposely watching his production numbers and current demand is sky high increasing daily. I personally would not sell my 5711 because I love it and chances of being able to purchase another for msrp are slim to nil for years to come.

Fat_ninja · 7 August 2019, 03:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by np2016

@bearxj86 thanks for the article. The 5711 and 5712 in steel are only going to continue increasing in value over time since Thierry is purposely watching his production numbers and current demand is sky high increasing daily. I personally would not sell my 5711 because I love it and chances of being able to purchase another for msrp are slim to nil for years to come.

And yet some people want to swap it for 5740

Ichiran · 7 August 2019, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

And yet some people want to swap it for 5740

Only if I have a second or third set of 5711 blue and 5712.

GreenLantern · 7 August 2019, 02:28 PM

Those of you who see the 5711/1A "continuing to increase in value over time" with no end in sight are smoking some seriously legit stuff.

A 5711/1A at $100k is already insane. You actually see it going to $200k? :)

WatchLurv · 7 August 2019, 02:46 PM

I actually just want the 5712/1A to drop down to retail. #WishFulThinking

How is the market going to be corrected when the supply remains the same? Less demand, same supply. Same supply meaning shops wont see a 5711 or 5712 for a whole year.

I'm going to look for bundled deals. 5270/1R + 5740G or 5905P + 5712/1A... Seems more realistic.

GB-man · 7 August 2019, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Those of you who see the 5711/1A "continuing to increase in value over time" with no end in sight are smoking some seriously legit stuff.

GreenLantern · 7 August 2019, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GB-man

6 August 2019, 05:04 AM	#61
np2016 "TRF" Member Join Date: Apr 2016 Location: Ohio Watch: Rolex, Patek, AP, Posts: 522	I have a strong feeling that when the dow Jones is down 900 points plus. It's going to put off alot of high end luxury purchases throughout the world.

6 August 2019, 11:38 PM	#72
teck21 "TRF" Member Join Date: Nov 2018 Real Name: Teck Location: South East Asia Watch: Tudor Black Bay 58 Posts: 1,846	There’s always a lag period between an economic slowdown as is read in the papers and the actual changing of purchasing/investing decisions. Eg someone who made up his or her mind last week to buy a GMT will likely not have decided against it simply based on what’s happened in the past two days. If the pessimism persists though, odds are this very same person will decide later on to defer this particular purchase. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

7 August 2019, 12:39 AM	#74
Roccio "TRF" Member Join Date: May 2016 Location: Home Posts: 80	Interesting. Used Rolex prices in Japan fell sharply but Patek prices are still standing like a champ. Maybe this is the last upward movement before the bubble popping?

7 August 2019, 01:30 AM	#79
Fat_ninja Banned Join Date: May 2018 Real Name: Jonathan Location: USA Watch: P-01 Posts: 11,772	Buy buy buy Sell sell sell

7 August 2019, 02:26 AM	#83
Bearxj86 "TRF" Member Join Date: Jun 2017 Location: Los Angeles Watch: 3970 Posts: 3,801	https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/th...tches-nautilus

7 August 2019, 03:31 AM	#84
np2016 "TRF" Member Join Date: Apr 2016 Location: Ohio Watch: Rolex, Patek, AP, Posts: 522	@bearxj86 thanks for the article. The 5711 and 5712 in steel are only going to continue increasing in value over time since Thierry is purposely watching his production numbers and current demand is sky high increasing daily. I personally would not sell my 5711 because I love it and chances of being able to purchase another for msrp are slim to nil for years to come.

7 August 2019, 02:28 PM	#87
GreenLantern "TRF" Member Join Date: Oct 2016 Location: Montana Posts: 3,223	Those of you who see the 5711/1A "continuing to increase in value over time" with no end in sight are smoking some seriously legit stuff. A 5711/1A at $100k is already insane. You actually see it going to $200k? :)

7 August 2019, 02:46 PM	#88
WatchLurv Banned Join Date: Jul 2018 Location: Moon Watch: Swiss Posts: 2,270	I actually just want the 5712/1A to drop down to retail. #WishFulThinking How is the market going to be corrected when the supply remains the same? Less demand, same supply. Same supply meaning shops wont see a 5711 or 5712 for a whole year. I'm going to look for bundled deals. 5270/1R + 5740G or 5905P + 5712/1A... Seems more realistic.

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