Slow down in HK... hmm. Maybe patek is immune

[TJMike]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Sadly that’s the same for most people

It probably says something about me, but this made me laugh

[TJMike]

Originally Posted by benlee

However, calatrava with a T-shirt just looks strange. YMMV.

What?! If I never wore my 5119J with a t-shirt it would only see the light a day maybe once every couple of years. Instead I wear it often with a t-shirt, shorts, and flipflops.

[martinr]

Originally Posted by TJMike

What?! If I never wore my 5119J with a t-shirt it would only see the light a day maybe once every couple of years. Instead I wear it often with a t-shirt, shorts, and flipflops.

One of the best comments I saw on TRF was in the Rolex section a couple years ago. It was something like this. “You wear the watch, it doesn’t wear you.”

[impinth06]

Parents were their a coupe weeks ago, business as usual, protestors only focus on gov and transportation hub. Their flight was canceled but left via rail road.

[Fat_ninja]

Everyone is focused on personal experiences... but you guys can all see it from economic reports and company monthly updates.... this is no longer a debate... it’s a reality.

[mongrelnomoad]

Just walked through Burlington Arcade for the first time in a few months and there were a lot of Nautilii and Aquanauts, vanilla and complicated. Earlier in the year there were none, and any that did show up would be gone before closing.

Read into that what you will but looks like it isn’t just HK.

[benlee]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

Just walked through Burlington Arcade for the first time in a few months and there were a lot of Nautilii and Aquanauts, vanilla and complicated. Earlier in the year there were none, and any that did show up would be gone before closing.

Read into that what you will but looks like it isn’t just HK.

They are not moving maybe because they are overpriced? We know things are really bad if we start to see Aquanault and Nautilus in stock at AD and not moving.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by benlee

They are not moving maybe because they are overpriced? We know things are really bad if we start to see Aquanault and Nautilus in stock at AD and not moving.

There's a lot of space between where we are now, and stock at ADs. That would be a proper rout.

That said, Burlington Arcade is probably full of the most well-connected greys in Europe. If their inventory is just sitting there, it's not just a local blip.

[baglady]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

Just walked through Burlington Arcade for the first time in a few months and there were a lot of Nautilii and Aquanauts, vanilla and complicated. Earlier in the year there were none, and any that did show up would be gone before closing.

Read into that what you will but looks like it isn’t just HK.

Yup I saw quite a few on my roll through last week.

[pam66]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Everyone is focused on personal experiences... but you guys can all see it from economic reports and company monthly updates.... this is no longer a debate... it’s a reality.

he said it and he is right

[pam66]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

Just walked through Burlington Arcade for the first time in a few months and there were a lot of Nautilii and Aquanauts, vanilla and complicated. Earlier in the year there were none, and any that did show up would be gone before closing.

Read into that what you will but looks like it isn’t just HK.

of course it is spreading - by diffusion:::))))

[pam66]

a grey in vienna told me that he has just bought a mint 5711A blue for 52K euros. a month ago he would have paid 60. i asked him is there more supply now. the answer was: no, not here. so why is the market going down everywhere? partly more supply in Hong Kong and then the psychology....

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by baglady

Yup I saw quite a few on my roll through last week.

I saw a 5167r in one of the windows. May I assume it won't be there next time I pass through? ;)

[baglady]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

I saw a 5167r in one of the windows. May I assume it won't be there next time I pass through? ;)

Wait what? PM me the shop? There are only two dealers in the arcade that sell Pateks.

If you don't remember the shop name would be great to get description (ur other shops close by or which end of the arcade it was in).

[watchucallit]

Larger number than those that attended Trumps inauguration

Originally Posted by SL BRABUS

So.....

Long line for Outback Steakhouse....

Plus

People protest against Rolex & Patek regarding SS Sport Watch shortage.....

That insane......!!!



......

[watchucallit]

Wow this was interesting for me. I wonder how many end up in each country. For example I know people from China used to travel to USA to buy and take back..

Originally Posted by Jp28

The amazing numbers for me are how small Russia and India still are (relatively).
They should be able to eat up a lot of production in coming years.

[yoast]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

I saw a 5167r in one of the windows. May I assume it won't be there next time I pass through? ;)

I saw that one too when I passed by just last Saturday. Went inside to ask for a quote on mine since I was wearing the same watch but they wouldn't tell me which I found odd. Maybe because I wasn't local?

[TJMike]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Everyone is focused on personal experiences... but you guys can all see it from economic reports and company monthly updates.... this is no longer a debate... it’s a reality.

So do you think the Patek/Rolex/AP (hotel models) watch bubble is going to burst? If so, I can see a bloodbath coming for other brands.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by TJMike

So do you think the Patek/Rolex/AP (hotel models) watch bubble is going to burst? If so, I can see a bloodbath coming for other brands.

I think there is a large likelihood of it coming off...not sure if pop is the right word I would use...there is no real price discovery at the moment. And bid ask for a 5711 is likely 50k by 70k... but if people start liquidating we’ll blow by the 50k level... so Bid ask has widened out significantly...i think the situation is really fluid right now...really depends on HK/China trade war. Oh yeah brexit too.

Given liquidity in mkt, I’m not 100% sure people need to liquidate. But the bids are low to reflect holding period risk/carrying cost.


I have no real insights. Just opinions....so take with grain of salt

[TJMike]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I think there is a large likelihood of it coming off...not sure if pop is the right word I would use...there is no real price discovery at the moment. And bid ask for a 5711 is likely 50k by 70k... but if people start liquidating we’ll blow by the 50k level... so Bid ask has widened out significantly...i think the situation is really fluid right now...really depends on HK/China trade war. Oh yeah brexit too.

Given liquidity in mkt, I’m not 100% sure people need to liquidate. But the bids are low to reflect holding period risk/carrying cost.


I have no real insights. Just opinions....so take with grain of salt

Thanks! In many ways I find analyzing the watch market almost as enjoyable as watch collecting.

[BigAppleBill]

Originally Posted by benlee

They are not moving maybe because they are overpriced? We know things are really bad if we start to see Aquanault and Nautilus in stock at AD and not moving.

I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m not getting my hopes up just to be rejected for the umpteenth time. Here in NYC I would be over the moon to be able to walk in and pick up a 5164 or 5711 from an AD.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by BigAppleBill

I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m not getting my hopes up just to be rejected for the umpteenth time. Here in NYC I would be over the moon to be able to walk in and pick up a 5164 or 5711 from an AD.

Just a few years ago you could. I remember seeing a 5712A in the front window at wempe. It’s the only time I have ever seen one lol

Also 5164A at Tiffany no less in the case.

I don’t think a return to that is out of the question at all if the markets tank.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by yoast

I saw that one too when I passed by just last Saturday. Went inside to ask for a quote on mine since I was wearing the same watch but they wouldn't tell me which I found odd. Maybe because I wasn't local?

If they’re not looking for further inventory of the hot models things must be really bad... They used to bite my arm off for my BLNR (my other watches aren’t that hip).

[baglady]

Called one of the dealers in Burlington Arcade today and was quoted a price roughly in line with what I'm seeing on chrono24 for the 5164r. I know it's negotiable but from what I'm seeing not close to where I want to be. The watch retails for 40k GBP and I'd be willing to go as high as 50k GBP but I don't think any of these dealers are prepared to go that low, or lower than 55k, or even lower than 60k.

FWIW rows of Nautilii sitting at one of the dealers in Hatton Garden.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by baglady

Called one of the dealers in Burlington Arcade today and was quoted a price roughly in line with what I'm seeing on chrono24 for the 5164r. I know it's negotiable but from what I'm seeing not close to where I want to be. The watch retails for 40k GBP and I'd be willing to go as high as 50k GBP but I don't think any of these dealers are prepared to go that low, or lower than 55k, or even lower than 60k.

FWIW rows of Nautilii sitting at one of the dealers in Hatton Garden.

BA and the Mayfair set will be the last to lower price, try an online grey like Guardian of Time.

[V25V]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Just a few years ago you could. I remember seeing a 5712A in the front window at wempe. It’s the only time I have ever seen one lol



Also 5164A at Tiffany no less in the case.



I don’t think a return to that is out of the question at all if the markets tank.

There are 3 or 4 5164's in the FS section sitting. Same with the 5711's. Prices are already falling on them both. I have never speculated on when this market will cool off but I think we are there.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I think there is a large likelihood of it coming off...not sure if pop is the right word I would use...there is no real price discovery at the moment. And bid ask for a 5711 is likely 50k by 70k... but if people start liquidating we’ll blow by the 50k level... so Bid ask has widened out significantly...i think the situation is really fluid right now...really depends on HK/China trade war. Oh yeah brexit too.

Given liquidity in mkt, I’m not 100% sure people need to liquidate. But the bids are low to reflect holding period risk/carrying cost.


I have no real insights. Just opinions....so take with grain of salt

Some people / especially dealers hope that the prices dropping in Hong Kong won't affect them and they hold onto their expensive inventory. They picked them up for too much and are now hoping they can offload.

The widened gap between Hong Kong and Europe can be a reason for someone to come out here and score a deal.

I've been in discussions with European Greys that say that prices are still up (or paradoxically say they're going up). Can't argue with them, when our prices have come down and are still going down. The world normally follows this trend Hong Kong sets the market price.

[pam66]

it is as the ninja said (he is right about some things after all), the bid-ask spread is increasing. every economist will tell you that this is a clear sign for a market going downhill. how fast and how far down nobody knows. my uneducated guess is not too fast but it could be deep and it could take years to recover, even if they slow down production. inventories with grey are big numbers. and then the danger is that PP dress pieces will be the previous hot thing and who knows what the next one is? RM maybe...the ninja is prepared:::)))
joking apart, this may be a good point in time to focus buying power on real high level horology, or in other words, how many nautilus/aquanaut do you need?

[Fat_ninja]

People forget that there’s 2 forms of supply.

1) inventory
2) new production models


Now if there is a slow down and there is inventory and Patek continues to produce the same amount. By definition the market is not as tight. At some point that inventory will need to move into the market.

[henryjoeng]

Originally Posted by qrc36

Oh of course no Aquanaut or mens' Nautilus on display - they are only available on application to the distributor Libertas, who decides who gets each and every stainless steel Aquanaut / mens' Nautilus.

But a very full selection of annual calendars, perpetuals, ladies' watches (including Nautilus), and a few 5230.

My usual Patek AD is at the fullest it's ever been since I've known them. A very full inventory of watches right now.

Rewind back to May 2019 after China golden week holidays, there was just one or two watches on display in the whole shop for 2-3 weeks. My salesperson joked that there's no point in going to work if there's nothing to sell! (Oh, and she said "the shop looks like we've been robbed, with nothing left to display!")

It's good (at least for us) that your AD had lady's nautilus in 7.2019.
I still have to wait for 5 months before getting 7118A blue dial for my wife from my AD.