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Karbo · 18 February 2018, 05:01 PM

I know its not an easy answer but how do you feel the value of that tremendous watch will go on the grey market? Will it follow 11/12 path ?
Will it go above the retail price ?

tyler1980 · 18 February 2018, 05:42 PM

over retail, yes i think. Not like the 11 or 12 though.

Its getting more popular naturally as people are interested in it much more than before, plus demand is also shifting to it from other sports models do to their own scarcity. IMO thats two factors that is going to make it harder to get.

Karbo · 18 February 2018, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tyler1980

over retail, yes i think. Not like the 11 or 12 though.

Honestly I like it better than a nautilus... more in harmony with my lifestyle; and the dial is crazy

tyler1980 · 18 February 2018, 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Karbo

Honestly I like it better than a nautilus... more in harmony with my lifestyle; and the dial is crazy

its still my favorite watch if i had to pick just one. IMO its perfect. It gets the most wrist time by a lot.

mps354 · 19 February 2018, 12:39 AM

No idea about future value, but I love the look, comfort, and complication

tng11 · 19 February 2018, 01:07 AM

Prices on the other sports models are going up and the 5164A now looks comparatively the better value relative to other SS Patek models.

Used to be you could get a decent discount on them, now MSRP is a good deal. There's no meaningful premium on them yet, but 2018 will likely see the prices on these go up.

IMO it is the most perfect watch I've ever owned. Perfect balance of a useful complication, weight, comfort, size and presence. I wear it 5 or 6 days a week now and it would easily be the only watch I would retain if I could only have one.

Vipes · 19 February 2018, 01:18 AM

About a year ago, you could get a good pre-owned piece for about 25% off of retail price. The crazy demand for the 5711 and 5712 is having an effect on Aquanauts.

GB-man · 19 February 2018, 01:26 AM

I think it will remain around msrp or token discount and resale around 90% of msrp until the market cools. Appreciate? I don't think so.

Much better buy than the 5711/12 at market price.

I will admit I have always preferred the aquanaut to the nautilus line.

mps354 · 19 February 2018, 01:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tng11

Prices on the other sports models are going up and the 5164A now looks comparatively the better value relative to other SS Patek models.

Used to be you could get a decent discount on them, now MSRP is a good deal. There's no meaningful premium on them yet, but 2018 will likely see the prices on these go up.

IMO it is the most perfect watch I've ever owned. Perfect balance of a useful complication, weight, comfort, size and presence. I wear it 5 or 6 days a week now and it would easily be the only watch I would retain if I could only have one.

Same here. If I had to go down to one watch, it would be the 5167 or 5164

Karbo · 19 February 2018, 02:11 AM

And what about the 20% price increase on 11/12... how it should affect the 64 ?

Vipes · 19 February 2018, 02:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Karbo

And what about the 20% price increase on 11/12... how it should affect the 64 ?

It’s too soon to know. After the price increase then we will see how this all turns out.

AK797 · 19 February 2018, 04:11 AM

Price is creeping up steadily here, in Nov when I was looking, big Euro dealer Chronext had it unworn for £25,750, slightly under retail, now it's £28,700.

5711, 5711r, 12 and 67 have all surged ahead and I think all Patek sports will climb in this flight to quality environment. A run on 5726s will be next.

Karbo · 19 February 2018, 07:57 AM

Crazy dial

nyc2la · 19 February 2018, 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Karbo

Crazy dial

Really nicely captured.

lapince · 19 February 2018, 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tyler1980

over retail, yes i think. Not like the 11 or 12 though.

Its getting more popular naturally as people are interested in it much more than before, plus demand is also shifting to it from other sports models do to their own scarcity. Imo thats two factors that is going to make it harder to get.

+1

lapince · 19 February 2018, 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AK797

Price is creeping up steadily here, in Nov when I was looking, big Euro dealer Chronext had it unworn for £25,750, slightly under retail, now it's £28,700.

5711, 5711r, 12 and 67 have all surged ahead and I think all Patek sports will climb in this flight to quality environment. A run on 5726s will be next.

I agree on 5726 being the next Nautilus which prices should go up, it’s the next in line after the 11-12, if I didn’t have the 11-12 and seeing the grey prices, I think if I couldn’t get a 12 for retail I would get the 5726, probably the white dial had the grey on strap, very nice but love the ultra thin and bracelet of the 2 others

Karbo · 19 February 2018, 04:06 PM

30% for down... why do you think so guys ?

Ichiran · 19 February 2018, 04:20 PM

For Patek SS sports watches, the only way is up

tyler1980 · 19 February 2018, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Karbo

30% for down... why do you think so guys ?

my guess is they don't think it will appreciate and will hold value steady to current levels. Not the same thing as going down in value though but there were only two options.

I honestly cant see it losing value going forward so thats the only thing i can come up with.

Rolexavidfan · 19 February 2018, 09:34 PM

The 5164a was probably not in most people’s radar especially if one hardly travels. A 5167a makes more sense as a time only watch.

But with Patek sports model getting more difficult to get, the price trend of 5164a will definitely go up.

tng11 · 19 February 2018, 11:07 PM

From my perspective, the 5164A became a lot more attractive when considering the spread between the 5167 and 5164 on the secondary market.

The 5167 and 5164 have a difference in MSRP of around $15,000. That's a lot of money for an additional GMT complication that you may not use or seldom use, and it's more expensive than buying another Rolex GMT-II!

But when the time came to consider the upgrade, it ended up being a $9,000 upgrade from a 2-year old 5167A to a 6 month old 5164A. That was the upgrade price despite the fact that the 5164A was newer, and that seemed a lot more reasonable and a no-brainer even though I don't use the GMT complication that often (and there are a number of other benefits to the 5164A, among which are the better symmetry, a better dial, better wrist presence, etc.)

ap1 · 19 February 2018, 11:37 PM

Demand is up from TRF threads alone

Karbo · 19 February 2018, 11:51 PM

Its funny that nobody explains why it could go down....

AK797 · 20 February 2018, 12:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tng11

From my perspective, the 5164A became a lot more attractive when considering the spread between the 5167 and 5164 on the secondary market.

The 5167 and 5164 have a difference in MSRP of around $15,000. That's a lot of money for an additional GMT complication that you may not use or seldom use, and it's more expensive than buying another Rolex GMT-II!

But when the time came to consider the upgrade, it ended up being a $9,000 upgrade from a 2-year old 5167A to a 6 month old 5164A. That was the upgrade price despite the fact that the 5164A was newer, and that seemed a lot more reasonable and a no-brainer even though I don't use the GMT complication that often (and there are a number of other benefits to the 5164A, among which are the better symmetry, a better dial, better wrist presence, etc.)

I think this was the case with the 5712 too in the old buy for retail days, but when their prices started to shorten and scarcity increased the more complicated models grew in popularity, esp as they were Pateks.

AK797 · 20 February 2018, 12:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ap1

Demand is up from TRF threads alone

I think for AP and PP, the forums have a lot more influence over general buying patterns... so we best be careful...

DeeTee · 20 February 2018, 01:31 AM

They will go up.
By end of 2018 they will go up to 60k.
By mid 2019 about 100k.
By 2020 it will rocket to 200k.

TRF, mortgage your house, sell your wife, keep buying watches.
By 2021 your purchases can fund a new boat, divorce, Ferrari’s, mansions, etc!

Vipes · 20 February 2018, 01:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeeTee

They will go up.
By end of 2018 they will go up to 60k.
By mid 2019 about 100k.
By 2020 it will rocket to 200k.

TRF, mortgage your house, sell your wife, keep buying watches.
By 2021 your purchases can fund a new boat, divorce, Ferrari’s, mansions, etc!

Ooh, I can't wait!

SL BRABUS · 20 February 2018, 05:23 AM

no brainer.....

If global economy up, the price of the 5164 is up.....

If global economy down,the price of the 5164 is down.....

kilyung · 20 February 2018, 05:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeeTee

They will go up.
By end of 2018 they will go up to 60k.
By mid 2019 about 100k.
By 2020 it will rocket to 200k.

TRF, mortgage your house, sell your wife, keep buying watches.
By 2021 your purchases can fund a new boat, divorce, Ferrari’s, mansions, etc!

Ok I took your advise and mortgaged my home which caused me to get divorced. Now I own a bunch of Pateks and will wait until 2020 to reap the rewards! I hope my future bride likes sailboats, Ferraris, and mansions.

GB-man · 20 February 2018, 06:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Karbo

Its funny that nobody explains why it could go down....

Quote:

Originally Posted by SL BRABUS

no brainer.....

If global economy up, the price of the 5164 is up.....

If global economy down,the price of the 5164 is down.....

Exactly this. These were lnib for like 26k all day not long ago. If demand cools they will return.

View Poll Results: 5164 future value will go...
Up	131	69.31%
Down	58	30.69%
Voters: 189. You may not vote on this poll

18 February 2018, 05:01 PM	#1
Karbo "TRF" Member Join Date: May 2011 Location: Paris, France Watch: Dayto/5164 Posts: 1,631	5164 future value I know its not an easy answer but how do you feel the value of that tremendous watch will go on the grey market? Will it follow 11/12 path ? Will it go above the retail price ? __________________ IG : @aka_karbo

19 February 2018, 01:26 AM	#8
GB-man 2024 Pledge Member Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: USA Watch: addiction issues Posts: 36,859	I think it will remain around msrp or token discount and resale around 90% of msrp until the market cools. Appreciate? I don't think so. Much better buy than the 5711/12 at market price. I will admit I have always preferred the aquanaut to the nautilus line. __________________

19 February 2018, 02:11 AM	#10
Karbo "TRF" Member Join Date: May 2011 Location: Paris, France Watch: Dayto/5164 Posts: 1,631	And what about the 20% price increase on 11/12... how it should affect the 64 ? __________________ IG : @aka_karbo

19 February 2018, 04:06 PM	#17
Karbo "TRF" Member Join Date: May 2011 Location: Paris, France Watch: Dayto/5164 Posts: 1,631	30% for down... why do you think so guys ? __________________ IG : @aka_karbo

18 February 2018, 05:42 PM	#2
tyler1980 "TRF" Member Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Houston Posts: 17,622	over retail, yes i think. Not like the 11 or 12 though. Its getting more popular naturally as people are interested in it much more than before, plus demand is also shifting to it from other sports models do to their own scarcity. IMO thats two factors that is going to make it harder to get.

19 February 2018, 12:39 AM	#5
mps354 2024 Pledge Member Join Date: Jul 2012 Real Name: Mike Location: CT Posts: 8,972	No idea about future value, but I love the look, comfort, and complication

19 February 2018, 01:07 AM	#6
tng11 "TRF" Member Join Date: Jun 2016 Location: N/A Posts: 3,629	Prices on the other sports models are going up and the 5164A now looks comparatively the better value relative to other SS Patek models. Used to be you could get a decent discount on them, now MSRP is a good deal. There's no meaningful premium on them yet, but 2018 will likely see the prices on these go up. IMO it is the most perfect watch I've ever owned. Perfect balance of a useful complication, weight, comfort, size and presence. I wear it 5 or 6 days a week now and it would easily be the only watch I would retain if I could only have one.

19 February 2018, 01:18 AM	#7
Vipes "TRF" Member Join Date: Jun 2011 Location: Texas Posts: 4,838	About a year ago, you could get a good pre-owned piece for about 25% off of retail price. The crazy demand for the 5711 and 5712 is having an effect on Aquanauts.

19 February 2018, 04:11 AM	#12
AK797 2024 Pledge Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Real Name: Neil Location: UK Watch: ing ships roll in Posts: 59,225	Price is creeping up steadily here, in Nov when I was looking, big Euro dealer Chronext had it unworn for £25,750, slightly under retail, now it's £28,700. 5711, 5711r, 12 and 67 have all surged ahead and I think all Patek sports will climb in this flight to quality environment. A run on 5726s will be next.

19 February 2018, 04:20 PM	#18
Ichiran 2024 Pledge Member Join Date: Jan 2018 Real Name: Michael Location: Dotonbori Watch: Mostly blue dials Posts: 7,619	For Patek SS sports watches, the only way is up

19 February 2018, 09:34 PM	#20
Rolexavidfan "TRF" Member Join Date: Jan 2011 Real Name: Har Location: Tukwila, WA Watch: Rolex Posts: 1,568	The 5164a was probably not in most people’s radar especially if one hardly travels. A 5167a makes more sense as a time only watch. But with Patek sports model getting more difficult to get, the price trend of 5164a will definitely go up. __________________ Rolex Rolex Rolex Rolex Rolex Rolex Rolex Rolex Rolex Rolex Go for the timepiece you love. You will save more. ...

19 February 2018, 11:07 PM	#21
tng11 "TRF" Member Join Date: Jun 2016 Location: N/A Posts: 3,629	From my perspective, the 5164A became a lot more attractive when considering the spread between the 5167 and 5164 on the secondary market. The 5167 and 5164 have a difference in MSRP of around $15,000. That's a lot of money for an additional GMT complication that you may not use or seldom use, and it's more expensive than buying another Rolex GMT-II! But when the time came to consider the upgrade, it ended up being a $9,000 upgrade from a 2-year old 5167A to a 6 month old 5164A. That was the upgrade price despite the fact that the 5164A was newer, and that seemed a lot more reasonable and a no-brainer even though I don't use the GMT complication that often (and there are a number of other benefits to the 5164A, among which are the better symmetry, a better dial, better wrist presence, etc.)

19 February 2018, 11:37 PM	#22
ap1 2024 Pledge Member Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: usa Posts: 19,041	Demand is up from TRF threads alone

19 February 2018, 11:51 PM	#23
Karbo "TRF" Member Join Date: May 2011 Location: Paris, France Watch: Dayto/5164 Posts: 1,631	Its funny that nobody explains why it could go down.... __________________ IG : @aka_karbo

20 February 2018, 01:31 AM	#26
DeeTee "TRF" Member Join Date: Dec 2014 Location: Los Angeles Watch: Netflix Posts: 3,977	They will go up. By end of 2018 they will go up to 60k. By mid 2019 about 100k. By 2020 it will rocket to 200k. TRF, mortgage your house, sell your wife, keep buying watches. By 2021 your purchases can fund a new boat, divorce, Ferrari’s, mansions, etc!

20 February 2018, 05:23 AM	#28
SL BRABUS "TRF" Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: U.S.A Watch: Only Rolex & Patek Posts: 3,345	no brainer..... If global economy up, the price of the 5164 is up..... If global economy down,the price of the 5164 is down..... __________________ Rolex Forum: Mainly Rolex & Benz pictures...!!! Click the above link to join the club...^^^... "SL BRABUS" aka BenzWorld Undercover Moderator

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