The shortage is turning into a desert

[fsprow]

I believe it is really clear by now that Rolex makes a great number of watches and that many or most of the SS models and some PM make their way (by a variety of routes) to resellers who sell at the market price, which is currently higher than MSRP due to demand.

When I want a watch I want it right now, and if the price seems right I negotiate and buy from one of the great resellers known on this site. Often really good people to deal with - and you will have the watch tomorrow. If and when prices come down to MSRP I'll be glad to purchase from an AD unless a reseller can do better. The "AD experience" means zero to me. I can get a bottle of water or a hat elsewhere.

Just the way the world is - for Rolex and various other items. There is a lot of money out there and even a high end Rolex doesn't dilute many bank accounts.

[Lemonvr6]

The level of entitlement displayed here is absolutely outrageous. Maybe another 500 threads on the same topic will solve the issue.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

Went to a local AD yesterday just hoping to try on a DJ41 to gauge the size.

2 giant display cases and it was 80% empty. Not a single watch above 36mm in size in the case and all ladies watches expect for 1 Cellini.

Told the guy I was hoping to try on a DJ41 either SS or a PM piece. He said they have nothing unfortunately. He also said they have only seen 2 new subs all year. He offered to put me on the list for a few pieces but I declined.

I said it is sad to see the cases so barren this time of year and he admitted it is embarrassing that it has come to this.

So I looked at the Omega case and that was full and I was smitten with the new Omega Seamaster Titanium. May end up diverting my Rolex funds that way

This is not a rant, just an update on the state of affairs

I hear ya, I've been into my AD a couple times this year, and each time going in, the case went from sparse (including the root beer GMT and gold Sub, a couple Yachtmasters) to nothing at all but a few lady Date Justs).

I'm waiting on the humble Explorer, but they have zero idea when they will get any more. I understand there is high demand for sports pieces like the Sub and Pepsi, but this is borderline ridiculous lately. Literally nothing in the case.

I'm pondering an Omega too, or more likely time to pick up that Reverso that I've always wanted but never really commit to.

[bejzv]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I am as dumbfounded and frustrated as every other WIS with the incredible difficulty in obtaining a Rolex, from an AD, at MSRP. I can not offer any solutions or explanations. I will however, disagree with some of the statements made in this thread about the “purpose” of a Rolex. I can not speak for anyone else, but my Rolex was purchased to be worn and enjoyed, NOT as an investment, barter, or attempt to make a quick buck. I enjoy my (new) sub every day that I wear it, and I plan on wearing it for a long time.

I support this too. It shouldn't be viewed as an investment...

[jerryguo]

good choice


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[ronricks]

We are to the point where basic SS Datejust 41's are now held "in the back" with all the SS sport models.

[goodolejr]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

I hear ya, I've been into my AD a couple times this year, and each time going in, the case went from sparse (including the root beer GMT and gold Sub, a couple Yachtmasters) to nothing at all but a few lady Date Justs).

I'm waiting on the humble Explorer, but they have zero idea when they will get any more. I understand there is high demand for sports pieces like the Sub and Pepsi, but this is borderline ridiculous lately. Literally nothing in the case.

I'm pondering an Omega too, or more likely time to pick up that Reverso that I've always wanted but never really commit to.

Gray premiums for a 214270 are fairly low. Factoring in sales tax savings, why not just spend a few hundred dollars more and get it tomorrow?

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by goodolejr

Gray premiums for a 214270 are fairly low. Factoring in sales tax savings, why not just spend a few hundred dollars more and get it tomorrow?

I want brand new/unworn and I'm not willing to pay the premiums I have seen (close to 9K) for unworn.

[strafer_kid]

Originally Posted by Danny83

AD in Texas 2 weeks ago ha!


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That seems crazy!

[Rexplorer214270]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

Went to a local AD yesterday just hoping to try on a DJ41 to gauge the size.

2 giant display cases and it was 80% empty. Not a single watch above 36mm in size in the case and all ladies watches expect for 1 Cellini.

Told the guy I was hoping to try on a DJ41 either SS or a PM piece. He said they have nothing unfortunately. He also said they have only seen 2 new subs all year. He offered to put me on the list for a few pieces but I declined.

I said it is sad to see the cases so barren this time of year and he admitted it is embarrassing that it has come to this.

So I looked at the Omega case and that was full and I was smitten with the new Omega Seamaster Titanium. May end up diverting my Rolex funds that way

This is not a rant, just an update on the state of affairs

Yet, on these forums there are incomings from people purchasing at from ADs. Some even claiming no purchase history.

[dwjez14]

Originally Posted by Danny83

AD in Texas 2 weeks ago ha!


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Was this Northpark mall haha they had Jack this weekend. 2 day dates and 6 women datejust. I actually felt bad for them

[Mr. Miami]

Originally Posted by Lemonvr6

The level of entitlement displayed here is absolutely outrageous. Maybe another 500 threads on the same topic will solve the issue.

[Danny83]

Originally Posted by dwjez14

Was this Northpark mall haha they had Jack this weekend. 2 day dates and 6 women datejust. I actually felt bad for them

Hey Danny no It was Richardson . Northpark does not have anything either...

[Laszlo]

Rolex broke Rolex.

Demand is fanciful.

[Sub*Man]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

Went to a local AD yesterday just hoping to try on a DJ41 to gauge the size.

2 giant display cases and it was 80% empty. Not a single watch above 36mm in size in the case and all ladies watches expect for 1 Cellini.

Told the guy I was hoping to try on a DJ41 either SS or a PM piece. He said they have nothing unfortunately. He also said they have only seen 2 new subs all year. He offered to put me on the list for a few pieces but I declined.

I said it is sad to see the cases so barren this time of year and he admitted it is embarrassing that it has come to this.

So I looked at the Omega case and that was full and I was smitten with the new Omega Seamaster Titanium. May end up diverting my Rolex funds that way

This is not a rant, just an update on the state of affairs

Where in NC are you? I’m in Charlotte/Winston and it’s more of the same.

[Boothroyd]

Originally Posted by FTX I

Used to be fun but it's not anymore.

Ain't that the truth. Rolex-Schmolex. I will sit on the sidelines for a few years and see if they go back into business, providing inventory to retail buyers. They could have ceased production altogether, in regard to procuring something at an AD these days.

[Avedis]

I take it a step further by not supporting any multi brand AD that stocks Rolex. You are strengthening their sales. They are happier when you aren't able to buy the Rolex you are after and forced to buy a higher margin brand that they stock. I went straight to another boutique and bought my Omega's.

I am not in this hobby for purchase history and licking the back ends of AD sales reps.

[dtwer]

The fact that there is no Rolex to be had and a display case full of Omega nobody buys tells you all you need to know: people who want high end watches buy Rolex, not Omega.

It’s a good thing, we should count ourselves blessed to be able to own such a successful item.

[brucethemanlee]

Originally Posted by tswanenguni

correct,therefore the very high demand .

+ 1

[C0d]

Originally Posted by dtwer

The fact that there is no Rolex to be had and a display case full of Omega nobody buys tells you all you need to know: people who want high end watches buy Rolex, not Omega.

It’s a good thing, we should count ourselves blessed to be able to own such a successful item.

LOL

[Turnaround]

Originally Posted by Danny83

AD in Texas 2 weeks ago ha!


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I’ve been at a store at closing too.

[Danny83]

Originally Posted by Turnaround

I’ve been at a store at closing too.

Nope 1 pm only had 3 dJ and 2 Cellini.

[Turnaround]

Originally Posted by Danny83

Nope 1 pm only had 3 dJ and 2 Cellini.

There is something up with that dealer IMO.

[Danny83]

Originally Posted by Turnaround

There is something up with that dealer IMO.

https://govindjis.com/ This is the place

[Turnaround]

Originally Posted by Danny83

https://govindjis.com/ This is the place

Yep

[hambone1983]

Originally Posted by padi56

.

So what you are saying because Rolex watches are expensive they are very exclusive.Rolex watches were always expensive but millions still bought them each year over the past 50 odd years.I remember my Father taking on two jobs and saving for 5 years to buy his first Rolex back in the 1980s.He wanted a Rolex not because of like you say it being exclusive,but for what all Rolex should be bought for,a watch giving you the pleasure to own and wear hopefully in good health for decades it's not all about $$$$$£££.

I didn't mean to imply that exclusivity is a primary motivation for all buyers, or even any motivation at all. I simply meant that exclusivity is a feature of the good, whether it moves us or not.

[IamJacky]

There are 5 ADs within my city, all of them have been dry for ages, they always only have TT lady's & men's Datejust on display. Walked in many times, same story every time: "No stock" "Sign Interest list" (it's not even a waitlist, a waitlist is for VIPs/preferred clients).

There're at least 10-15 grey dealers in the same area, all with storefronts. Almost all of them carry the hottest SS professional models AND SS Datejusts, Air Kings, etc., and almost all of them are priced very similarly. I like to think that they have deep connections with the ADs. To me there is basically zero chance to even dream to ever getting a professional SS model at retail.

I don't blame the grey dealers though, the supply/demand phenomenon of Rolex has essentially created this enormous secondary market all around the world. It's become a legitimate business model and I believe will continue to operate for years to come. I don't think Rolex will increase their production or limit their ADs, they'll most likely remain the same output and production, it's obviously worked greatly for them.

Yet I can't just walk away... I'm just gonna pull the trigger on some final SS pieces that I really want and be done with the Stainless Steel models, I hope.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

Rolex broke Rolex.

Demand is fanciful.

How does selling out everything break a brand?

Logic would suggest the very opposite of being broken if a manufacturer is selling out pretty much everything it produces.


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[Freq18Hz]

"I thought you would be taller."

My thoughts below, applicable barring a major world change that has a drastic effect (like complete devaluation of the dollar, or a world war etc.).


1) Rolex prices and availability will never come back down. The watches will never be as attainable as they are now. The only way this changes is if consumers walk away from mechanical time pieces completely and the entire industry folds. Reason: 15 years ago, an era many WIS think back fondly upon, when pricing and demand was more balanced, it was already a stretch to consider a watch as a necessity,

Post iPhone, iWatch, FitBit, they certainly aren't a necessity. They are a superfluous, discretionary item that is worn as jewelry by materialistic types, or as a familiar tool (aka I feel naked without my watch) by old people with money, or some combination therein.

In the year 2020, there is no universe in which anyone needs, or can even remotely justify spending $7k/$10k/++ on a mechanical time piece as a "smart" purchase. The only people doing so being dishonest with themselves, or are capitalizing on the commoditization of the item, thus using it as a short term speculative investment vehicle (a poor one).

2) Rolex doesn't care about AD's and their bare shelves. Rolex has been shutting AD's down, they are moving to a consolidated dealer network, propped up by a select few official showroom boutiques, requiring significant investment from the supporting dealers.

If you need to see an analog, go to a Ferrari dealership. They are few and far between, mostly do not have cars (sometimes used cars, or pre-owned less desirable models). Only a select few of the most prestigious showrooms (think Dubai) have desirable models sitting on the showroom floor. 95%+ of all Ferrari sales are custom orders, for preferred customers. Walking in with $500k in cash does not mean you will walk out with, or necessarily even be able to order the Ferrari you want. The most desirable models require previous purchase history, and approval to buy based on your status with Ferrari. Imagining the watch you saw on instagram sitting in the case, is more powerful than seeing the watch itself. It creates a legend. People want to buy the legend (not the actual watch).

3) Rolex does not have a supply or demand problem. They are perfectly positioned to milk every last dollar out of a dying industry. They are smart. Why make extra profit now in the short-term and risk further commoditization of their brand and the industry (since they know they lead the industry) when they can continue to make profit long term (playing the long game).

3) Rolex loves the gray market. A fool and his money are soon parted, and the gray dealer network and it's customers willing to pay above MSRP for a piece of jewelry is the best free advertising imaginable. Rolex has promoted this strategy, AD's actively encourage it and participate in it, selling directly to the gray market. Rolex could stop this if they wanted to. They don't. A rising tide makes all boats higher.

Rolex will continue to incrementally increase prices, capturing a portion of gray profits. With the coming inflation and simultaneous devaluation of the US dollar, Rolex will commensurately increase prices globally to offset any lack of demand or sales in the USA, and will shift allocation to other countries. Simply put - buyers with finances to buy a Rolex without blinking an eyelash don't care about an extra zero to have the watch that they want. It's not a big decision, it's just a watch, and they will continue to go gray as needed while pricing continues to climb.

In summary, Rolex has long since completed it's transformation. They have set their sights on owning the industry from the top down for over a century, and want to finally displace brands like Patek from owning the upper echelons of the business. The top 1% have vastly increased wealth over the past decade. Rolex is in the top 1% of brands (for any industry) globally. They have moved with their customers, and continue to own the space wholly.

If you can't get the Rolex you want - the brand isn't for you. If you have owned Rolex and do not appreciate 'the games' or the 'behavior of AD's', Rolex is no longer for you. Rolex watches are a legend, a carefully cultivated exclusive brand that exists in spite of itself.

These threads (and the time I spent writing this) are evidence of the continued success of this recipe. The legend persists. And like all legends, they often don't live up to reality for some, aka "I thought you would be taller".

-Freq

[ArtNouveau]

Stopped into my AD today just to chat with my SA. It’s a high volume Boutique and I’m guessing there was about 30-40 pieces in the cases, all smaller sized women’s models. My SA said they will still get two more shipments this year but almost eveything in them is already sold.
Remember the factory was closed earlier this year for around 2+ months so production was 20-25% less than last year. He says they did okay this year with what they had and walk ins are stilling buying the women’s watches from the case that will get a few more added by Christmas.
I turned down an OP41 Coral Red last month because I had just spent six figures on a new mountainbike. He reiterated that as soon as I want one again he will get me one. Sorry but it sucks to be a first time buyer but a great time to be a repeat.