The shortage is turning into a desert

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by sgarrity

Empty cases everywhere yet there’s a trusted seller with colored dial OP 41s for $11,600 to $12,600......OPs!
If people are paying anywhere close to that I just don’t know what to say.....

It’s really amazing that out of 5 local ADs I was only able to see one small coral red OP. How is it none are to be seen but the grays all have them.

Now that I think about it the one boutique does have about 5 times as many watches as the ADs.


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[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by nosignalbmwdriver

I think it's great. Makes rolex more exclusive.

Why do you care about whether Rolex is exclusive or not?

[GB-man]

Find another brand Rolex obviously doesn’t want our money.

[jamesbondOO7]

Makes the 5-digit market strong and fluid.

[GB-man]

Breitling omega blancpain IWC all good starting points.

[sgarrity]

Originally Posted by rolexgiants

Is it really a big deal?? What about the guy who overpaid 300k for the house he had to have?? LOL.

Real estate is usually a good investment if you hold it long enough. Paying double the MSRP for a watch that is currently in production??? Hard pass.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Wcdhtwn

This Rolex nonsense must be a significant benefit to brands like Omega, Blancpain, Panerai and others. I doubt we represent the larger watch buying world, most aren’t willing to wait 12, 24 months to get a watch, they’ll buy what’s in stock... and that isn’t Rolex.

It has to benefit them. I can’t see how someone looking to just buy a nice watch regardless of the name on the dial wouldn’t move to another brand- watches they can try on, interact with.

[samson66]

Originally Posted by nosignalbmwdriver

I think it's great. Makes rolex more exclusive.

Psst, don't tell anyone but there's nothing all that exclusive about a brand that sells a million watches a year...

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[fixinbones]

If there’s such a discrepancy between supply and demand that the AD cases are essentially empty Rolex should increase production. I know this won’t happen but I think there comes a time when the demand severely outstrips the supply that it hurts the brand. If I were looking for my first Rolex SS sport watch I would be completely turned off to the brand and look elsewhere. I also can’t believe that there are so many Rolex dealers who don’t have the clientele to sell their stock to that they have to resort to unloading them as well as the unpopular models to the greys.

[FTX I]

Used to be fun but it's not anymore.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Desert up front, oasis in the back?

No unfortunately the oasis today is at the grey market where you can get most all models even the 2020 new models at a price.And while there are those willing to pay crazy money for Rolex watches, thats where most will end up as today to many Rolex watches little more that £££$$$ object things.

Originally Posted by nosignalbmwdriver

I think it's great. Makes rolex more exclusive.

How can Rolex watches made in their countless millions over the past few decades ever to become exclusive defeats me.

[samson66]

Originally Posted by Wcdhtwn

This Rolex nonsense must be a significant benefit to brands like Omega, Blancpain, Panerai and others. I doubt we represent the larger watch buying world, most aren’t willing to wait 12, 24 months to get a watch, they’ll buy what’s in stock... and that isn’t Rolex.

Absolutely it benefits them. My AD says they sell the hell out of Omega, Breitling, Cartier and other brands. People walk in off the street, ask about all the Rolex models they don't have in stock, and walk out wearing an Omega. Really pays for these AD's to carry several other Swiss watch brands.

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[AlvaroRivas]

I consider myself new to the Rolex world, unfortunately I already went through the process of having to buy in what is called the gray market. With that said I am not new to this, I’ve been dealing with the gray market a.k.a. the resale market for a little over a decade with sneakers, It seems to me that Rolex is heading down the same path as the exclusive sneaker game. I don’t see a fix because as long as resellers keep buying the stock they control the market not Rolex. Rolex is also capitalizing off of this unfortunately it makes they’re already exclusive watch even more coveted. The next move Rolex will make will be to increase prices simply to profit more because they are watching the resale market closer then us.
At this point get them however you can. I remember buying Jordans at $120 retail they now sell at $220 retail and good luck finding them. Just wait a day or two jump on offer up or StockX and if your really hungry for them buy it, as a matter fact StockX already had Rolex. Word to the wise once they go public buy!!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...l%3f0p19G=2103


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[Brian Page]

If you don't have a classic Omega in your collection now is the time to pick up a speedmaster or seamaster - or both! You need them in your collection anyway Rolex or not.

[hambone1983]

of course Rolex is very exclusive.

The price alone (at MSRP) excludes 90%+ of the watch wearing public either by economic necessity or the unwillingness to spend at that level. And look at how many confirmed WIS's here are unwilling to pay the grey premium, probably most of us. Everyone could have what they want, within 2 or 3 days, if they were willing to pay the going price. But we largely are not willing and are thus, by our own choice, excluded.

When AD's start offering scholarships to assist the needy watch enthusiast then it will no longer be an exclusive brand.

[AlvaroRivas]

Ladies and gentlemen let’s also not forget, AD’s are the biggest part of the problem them have these timepieces already preselected to their buyers/resellers The kickback they receive must be pretty nice. Out of 10 time pieces I am pretty sure nine go to resellers one comes our way. You guys said it look at the flooded gray market. Again very similar to the sneaker world and I know guys to do exactly that luxury Watches just took a page off the Jordan game.


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[Watch Rob]

Go grey. It’s supply and demand. Capitalism at work.

[Nikrnic]

Looks like no fun being an SA or a customer in a Rolex store for Christmas again, 4 years running now. The ones having a white Christmas will be the grey dealers raking in the green thanks to the ADs. I'm sure Omega AD sales will be up.

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[AlvaroRivas]

Originally Posted by Nikrnic

Looks like no fun being an SA or a customer in a Rolex store for Christmas again, 4 years running now. The ones having a white Christmas will be the grey dealers raking in the green. I'm sure Omega AD sales will be up.

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I don’t think they suffer they get to tell a bunch of people no and call the guy that gives them $1000 on the side.


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[Nikrnic]

Originally Posted by AlvaroRivas

I don’t think they suffer they get to tell a bunch of people no and call the guy that gives them $1000 on the side.


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Funny, I just edited to say that. Thanks to ADs.

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[Unclebuck]

As far as I know, we're still supposed to get a boutique in Boston. So... a store full of empty cases? I gave up and went with Omega a few months back. love the Seamaster.

[Bigblu10]

I'm glad I can read these types of threads and take them with a grain of salt. There is no watch I want nor am chasing. It is a liberating feeling.

[Rashid.bk]

high demand, christmas, swisslandia is mostly done shipping this year, but in reality it's not what's in the case, it's what's in the back.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

Hopefully it will change from a money game back to a hobby as people slowly move on to other brands. Unfortunately I think Rolex is too smart to let that go to far. Every time they discontinue a model like the hulk it whips all the flippers back up into a frenzy. Then everyone wants the next watch to double overnight.

I went in opposite direction kind of. I went omega or tried to back in 18 after getting rudely treated at a couple of ADs.

I went to Omega boutique directly across the way from the Rolex AD after a snubbing. Looked at the seamaster was going to buy it but decided to check online and saw it for 2500.00 less. I told the SR what’s with this and can you match price. No was the answer. Then she said buy the Taratullum. It’s LE and there’s only one in store for 13K. Found that online for 2K less at this point she was pretty embarrassed and said I’ll get you on too of list for the 50th Apollo 11 if you put 5K deposit down. So I did that in November of 18!

One yr later and 4 months after the moon landing anniversary still no watch so I cancelled and got my money back. The very next day my AD that I developed a wonderful relationship over that 1 year time span called about a hulk.

The rest is history.


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This is a VERY important anecdote and illustrates a strong reason why the Rolex case is often "empty" and the Omega case is always "full".

In very simple terms, the general public, NON-WIS buyer does a quick and easy search for Omega and sees 99% of their references offered online at substantial discounts...discounts the AD won't match. Even if they did, that discovery shakes faith in the brand. Why is it worth less? If I buy it, will it be worthless? As much as the WIS community HATES that thought pattern with fury and venom, that is what is going on in the mind of the general public.
When they google ROLEX....they see values ABOVE MSRP. Combine that with the unparalleled brand cache' and there really is no competition in their minds.
ROLEX PLEASE! Any Rolex. Just get me Rolex. So they will buy whatever is there or wait until they can get something. Not even the "hawt" watches we all chase....just get a ROLEX.

This can be seen in shopping areas with both Rolex and Omega stores.

The Rolex store has more people in them than watches. The Omega store is full of watches and nobody is in them. It's not even close.

This clearly applies to the WIS collector as well as the poster mentioned. Just wait for the Rolex. It's much more rewarding that overpaying for Omega.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by hambone1983

of course Rolex is very exclusive.

The price alone (at MSRP) excludes 90%+ of the watch wearing public either by economic necessity or the unwillingness to spend at that level. And look at how many confirmed WIS's here are unwilling to pay the grey premium, probably most of us. Everyone could have what they want, within 2 or 3 days, if they were willing to pay the going price. But we largely are not willing and are thus, by our own choice, excluded.

When AD's start offering scholarships to assist the needy watch enthusiast then it will no longer be an exclusive brand.

.

So what you are saying because Rolex watches are expensive they are very exclusive.Rolex watches were always expensive but millions still bought them each year over the past 50 odd years.I remember my Father taking on two jobs and saving for 5 years to buy his first Rolex back in the 1980s.He wanted a Rolex not because of like you say it being exclusive,but for what all Rolex should be bought for,a watch giving you the pleasure to own and wear hopefully in good health for decades it's not all about $$$$$£££.

[rockdrock]

Passed on Rolex for the last 15 months. I love Rolex but can’t deal with the non-sense mentioned above. I don’t mind waiting 3-6 months. Years?? No thanks especially for productions watches and volumes close to a mil a day? Hard pass.

Looking at FPJ, JLC, DeBethune,Omega, and others.


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[1665fan]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Desert up front, oasis in the back?

Exactly.....how have people not figured this out.....

[JSolution]

Originally Posted by fixinbones

If there’s such a discrepancy between supply and demand that the AD cases are essentially empty Rolex should increase production. I know this won’t happen but I think there comes a time when the demand severely outstrips the supply that it hurts the brand. If I were looking for my first Rolex SS sport watch I would be completely turned off to the brand and look elsewhere. I also can’t believe that there are so many Rolex dealers who don’t have the clientele to sell their stock to that they have to resort to unloading them as well as the unpopular models to the greys.

On the flip side of this it also makes them more desirable.

[Jimmy66]

Originally Posted by FTX I

Used to be fun but it's not anymore.

It certainly did feel more fun and enjoyable "back in the day".
However...times change, and I completely grasp why the space is filled with greys, flippers and investors/speculators. My nephew is a successful grey dealer, and has been for around ten'ish years. His insights to our hobby are always illuminating.

I genuinely feel sorry for those "investing" in some of these modern watches, because I will never forget my nephew showing me a tray of a dozen+ Hulks, a plethora of Pepsi and Daytonas, and an ample serving of other untouched SS watches that had only been released mere months earlier.

The whole game is a finely oiled machine - Rolex manage their numbers impeccably. They release just the right amount of 'in-demand' watches to satiate the crowd...but not too many! Otherwise they risk diminishing the allure of those particular models, and the brand in general. This well crafted balance of supply & demand ensures the overall mania (and subsequent grey prices) is kept alive and well, and people don't flock to other brands. It also ensures AD's have an easier time shifting 'non-in-demand' models. The trickle down effect of the mania is real!

My nephew has an extensive network of family members/friends/flippers etc that frequent multiple boutiques round the country. He also has good connections with a handful of boutiques/SAs himself. Everyone gets compensated correctly, in order to keep the ball rolling.

[AlvaroRivas]

Wait so you guys foresee their being a resurgence in the market where we will finally but able to get what we want ?’


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