Prices Dropping Hard??

[drmovement]

Originally Posted by subtona

Did he say anything?

“~Early or late November we will see...”. Sounds like a fortune teller.

“Gold 5980” when did this become the barometer?




Of course the market is inflated

He is entertaining for sure. In terms of 5980 gold, remember he is based in Miami and gold is big, always has been

[Jamie1111]

Originally Posted by Steerpike999

Youtuber and reliable

Yeah, he’s not really a youtuber, he’s a jeweller and puts out a couple short vids a month.


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[SMD]

Originally Posted by InitialAndPitch

Actually, If Rolex sold an annual production of 850,000 in purely stainless GMT’s they’d be at gross revenue (not unit sales) of $US8,500,000,000.

Nope. Rolex doesn’t sell at msrp

[SS Oyster]

Eric knows the watch market pretty good, but no one can tell the future.

Have some pieces dropped recently on the secondary market? Yes, just look at the 12 BLNR. Yet, it’s still strongly over retail. At the same time the BLRO seems to be inching up.


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[Fat_ninja]

I hope the prices drop some so I can buy some watches

[rw2008]

Originally Posted by drmovement

He is entertaining for sure. In terms of 5980 gold, remember he is based in Miami and gold is big, always has been

He's citing the 5980/1R as probably the high-water mark in this run-up. MSRP at $90k reselling for ~$200k. That's impressive in both % increase and magnitude of actual cost. I agree it shouldn't be a "barometer" for the broader watch market (5711/1a, SS DaytonaC and SS Sub/GMT should be) but it's an extreme example of the market going nuts.

[rw2008]

Originally Posted by SS Oyster

Have some pieces dropped recently on the secondary market? Yes, just look at the 12 BLNR. Yet, it’s still strongly over retail. At the same time the BLRO seems to be inching up.


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This.

I don't care about price relative to market top, I care about price relative to retail. I only buy at retail so that's my only concern.

[socalwatchcollector]

Originally Posted by Wmrcer

All you have to do is go look at the classifieds here. Jubilee Batman’s were $20,000, now 16-17k range. Oyster Batman’s were 15-16k, now getting to the 13k range. Two tone subs and gmts going for under retail. I’ve been following for awhile now, and it does appear there are more stainless models hitting the ad’s. Thought it was crazy how these were going so much over retail. Glad though and just in time, getting close to my 30th birthday.

Two tone subs have always been under retail. They appear to have gone up a bit from what the grey's have them listed for but still under retail and probably still the best bang for your buck if you want a Rolex.

[finestdealer]

That would be great

[Nexus.Achiles]

The economy is about to turn. Inverted yields in the US, confrontation US-China, Germany and UK on the verge of a recession, Hong Kong watch sales plummeting, hard Brexit looming with a potential negative effect on the UK and the entire Euro zone, car sales down and property prices jittery in some EU countries. Stock market outlook bearish. I see downward pressure on demand.

As for supply, Rolex has just bought another factory, from Patek Philippe (this month). Looks like they're planning on ramping up production.

I'll let you guess the net effect on future grey prices.

[scurfa]

Originally Posted by Nexus.Achiles

The economy is about to turn. Inverted yields in the US, confrontation US-China, Germany and UK on the verge of a recession, Hong Kong watch sales plummeting, hard Brexit looming with a potential negative effect on the UK and the entire Euro zone, car sales down and property prices jittery in some EU countries. Stock market outlook bearish. I see downward pressure on demand.

As for supply, Rolex has just bought another factory, from Patek Philippe (this month). Looks like they're planning on ramping up production.

I'll let you guess the net effect on future grey prices.

They have been checking with AD’s for lists of interest, I don’t think you will see sports models in windows but you might not wait as long as lately


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[Habanos14060]

Just wondering how many of those saying "looming recession" have liquidated their equity holdings entirely......

[Gravity]

I prefer Roman's insight. A bit more comprehensive

[RobearH]

Originally Posted by Habanos14060

Just wondering how many of those saying "looming recession" have liquidated their equity holdings entirely......

Some being those that could not actually afford them.

[Anton911]

Prices are NOT dropping on the hot models.Its just wishful thinking by individuals who cannot afford those watches,so stop belly aching.

[DTap]

Originally Posted by Habanos14060

Just wondering how many of those saying "looming recession" have liquidated their equity holdings entirely......

This one has... mostly diversified cash with some gold. Dipping my toe on a short position. Happy to watch on the sidelines for 6 months. I think it’s a coin flip at this point.

[Solo118]

Originally Posted by Anton911

Prices are NOT dropping on the hot models.Its just wishful thinking by individuals who cannot afford those watches,so stop belly aching.

A bit harsh, but true. Stainless Daytonas will always be in demand in any economy. The GMT's might lower a bit, but still do not see the BLRO or BLNR at MSRP any time soon. Still plenty of people with cash to spend.

[1665fan]

Load down with 116520 and you won’t get hurt....

[singe89]

Originally Posted by Gravity

I prefer Roman's insight. A bit more comprehensive

great insight on the B2B and why AP (and others) would want to control the primary market through boutique only sales as well as getting into the secondary market.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Get back to the real reason you own a Rolex .

Rolex is an investment for the soul .

[Fire bloke]

Originally Posted by Gravity

I prefer Roman's insight. A bit more comprehensive

Romans channel is superb

[GMT Aviator]

I actually quite enjoy these threads. Couldn’t care less about “safe to wear” or not threads, but listening to everyone’s view on the forthcoming market is more strings to my bow.
Personally I see trouble ahead. I travel a lot and it’s obvious prices in the US are or have peaked. Apart from Mexico, the US has the most expensive watches I’ve seen.
Prices in the Uk are slowly showing signs of softening IMO. With the impending lack of confidence in the markets that’s starting to take hold, the only way I see these prices going at Greys is down. Some people who bought for investment purposes (which is crazy), are going to take a bath, others won’t.
One year from now it’ll be a different landscape altogether.

[PureCoconut]

Originally Posted by GMT Aviator

I actually quite enjoy these threads. Couldn’t care less about “safe to wear” or not threads, but listening to everyone’s view on the forthcoming market is more strings to my bow.
Personally I see trouble ahead. I travel a lot and it’s obvious prices in the US are or have peaked. Apart from Mexico, the US has the most expensive watches I’ve seen.
Prices in the Uk are slowly showing signs of softening IMO. With the impending lack of confidence in the markets that’s starting to take hold, the only way I see these prices going at Greys is down. Some people who bought for investment purposes (which is crazy), are going to take a bath, others won’t.
One year from now it’ll be a different landscape altogether.

Those who bought for investment deserve it. They probably also bought bitcoin at 19.7k

[Rafabond]

There will be three models that will rise in price and it will always be difficult to buy at the price of AD. Pepsi BLRO, Daytona white and Daytona black.

[42itus]

Originally Posted by Rafabond

There will be three models that will rise in price and it will always be difficult to buy at the price of AD. Pepsi BLRO, Daytona white and Daytona black.

I think the Blue SkyD more than the Pepsi will demand a higher premium.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Rafabond

There will be three models that will rise in price and it will always be difficult to buy at the price of AD. Pepsi BLRO, Daytona white and Daytona black.

blue skyd as well but i don't see daytonas going for like 25k+ if a recession hits. the premium will still be there but not to this extreme

[~JJ]

Originally Posted by Rafabond

There will be three models that will rise in price and it will always be difficult to buy at the price of AD. Pepsi BLRO, Daytona white and Daytona black.

Why? 116520 was extremely hard to get for 6-8 years. In 2015 I tried on the reference in both colors at 2 different ADs before picking up a black dial from my AD who ordered it and delivery came within a week, plus a discount. I’m not saying prices are going in either direction, but from experience ‘always’ is a long time for things not to change for better or worse.

[DTap]

Originally Posted by PureCoconut

Those who bought for investment deserve it. They probably also bought bitcoin at 19.7k

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lCcwn6bGUtU

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Habanos14060

Just wondering how many of those saying "looming recession" have liquidated their equity holdings entirely......

There will be for sure. Everyone was banging on about watches being investments and Rolex is totally immune to global factors. All rubbish.

Not a single person cares about watches when life factors are at play. Chinese/asians forums are so funny. Guys who were in the past saying BLNRs going to $30k or LVs going to $20k now selling their stock at reduced prices.

Daily bumps with price reductions - that is a perfect sign of how market sentiment has changed.

[subtona]

Still not indicated in boro FS offers.