Prices are not dropping!

[DTap]

Blro for 17k. No clue about the seller...

https://www.chronext.com/rolex/gmt-m...710blro/V10753

[SUPERDOC]

Originally Posted by singe89

The biggest problem I see is that if in fact 9 out of 10 transactions are actually B2B with wholesalers then the demand from the end consumer isn't really there to start with. If the market softens will all of these small business grey dealers be able to hold inventory to help keep prices up or will they be forced to sell at lower prices?

Rolex, AP and Patek have controlled this in the primary market but don't have control of the secondary market and if these wholesale gray dealers are forced to sell off inventory at lower prices then it could do exactly what these manufactures have tried to prevent.

The B-to-B sales is something that I find very interesting - I think the "pump and dump" is being orchestrated by the grey market - you have to wonder how many are getting to the end consumer at these prices...if at all..

some of the "sold" watches in the FS could be shill sales - or non-sales then relisted with the effort to give the impression that they are selling, and make you think that you may "miss out" if you don't jump at this one...

the internet and social media have driven the market, and Grey dealers were the first to manipulate social media / forums/ internet - leaving brands themselves struggling to establish online presence. So the proficient Greys are well positioned to drive up the Hype... If you don't think taht grey dealers are operating under a variety of accounts, you are kidding yourself...

One of the things that these models have offered was "social currency" aka "bragging rights" with a world forum to which you can now brag... instead of previously - you would buy a watch and exactly 0 people you know would care... but what I'm seeing now, is every other IG post, 'incoming' thread, and FS thread is one of these "hot Models"

The familiarity and frequency is making them less valuable as "social currency".. people who are buying without real desire, and only with the idea to "turn a quick profit" might get nervous when something that they couldn't afford doesn't immediately sell... you can convince yourself that this BLNR could sell for 20k because of the istings on Chrono24, but good luck adding your sale to the pile (which was pointed out earlier include hundreds of this same model)

furthermore, people looking to brag might find it less worth bragging about when "everyone" seems to have them... and more stories get out about people getting them at their AD at retail (many times with little-no effort) will make people less willing to admit to paying premiums...or find it less brag-worthy...

I don't think that these prices are the new normal ... when there is too much of a discrepancy between asking price and intrinsic value, and whenever FOMO is a factor, it is a bubble doomed to burst.


I do find the speculation threads to be fairly interesting and entertaining lately ... but as a watch collector and genuine lover of watches, I fear for the aftermath... You can see the industry starting to react and now start to focus strategy on secondary market value (with more endless limited editions) that I worry that more budget will be diverted to marketing, and less to actual watch making research and development.

when all Rolex has to do is change half of a bezel colour, and people lose their shit... who the hell needs innovation, hand decorated movements, perpetual calendars, enhanced precision, longer power reserves, guilloche, and repetition de minutes?

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by SUPERDOC

... as a watch collector and genuine lover of watches, I fear for the aftermath... I worry that more budget will be diverted to marketing, and less to actual watch making research and development.

Amen, though doubt Rolex has reduced their R&D when you consider all they do with creating oils, do their own gold mix in-house, movement R&D, etc. Once the bottom falls out of this massive bubble, as it always does, it will be very interesting to see how price-only TRF'ers react.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by SUPERDOC

some of the "sold" watches in the FS could be shill sales - or non-sales then relisted with the effort to give the impression that they are selling, and make you think that you may "miss out" if you don't jump at this one...

That is EXACTLY what happens. Been happening for ages to create a false sense of urgency to the buyer like you said. Its a well known tactic

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Ignore auctions they are not indicative of true market price on low cost modern pieces.

And likewise many, if not most, of those listed on Chrono24. There are so many resellers looking for someone to overpay on a watch they don't even have in stock. If they get lucky and snag a sale they then source at a lower cost and pocket the spread.

I understand the desire for prices to drop and I'm not advocating against. But it appears there are more than a few hoping for this inevitable drop that aren't really seeing the true market picture. Supply is nowhere near demand and a lot of people are willing to pay a significant premium. Prices won't take any appreciable hits until the economy and markets falter.

[WatchLurv]

They're dropping in Asia, but not Europe or North America. You're merely at the wrong side of the world.

Prices have dropped 10-15% for some models. They aren't seeing the "gold rush" attitude in terms of pricehike anymore.

[jimcameron]

This use to be a really fun place to spend time with interesting people.

[georgekart]

I don't see price declines on most models from what I see, Hulk is where it was a month ago, same for BLRO, white 500c might have gone down a bit, but not significantly so. The only thing that went down significantly is BLNRj, which makes sense. Novelty is wearing off and Rolex released a truckload of them, so it is only logical it went down, but I don't see it going down much more.

[patrickjb]

Originally Posted by jimcameron

This use to be a really fun place to spend time with interesting people.

It sure did.

[exador]

Originally Posted by LarsFS

take a look at this site (I am not affiliated with it, nor do I have a dog in the fight either):

https://www.watchpricetrend.com/

I took a quick look. Apparently the Rolex GMT Master 2 126711 is an actual model and China represents 5% of the watch market

[Howie]

Originally Posted by jimcameron

This use to be a really fun place to spend time with interesting people.

I remember when I first joined TRF back in 2008 it was known as 'the friendliest watch forum'...

[Brew]

I think there are some interesting people here, and I sure have learned a whole bunch. This thread and its ilk doesn't fit that description. Speculation about speculation makes WISs go blind, fyi.

[BillA]

Nice to see a new thread on the forum, I thought this was going to be about "I inherited a Rolex from my Grandfather", now that is interesting stuff. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jimcameron

This use to be a really fun place to spend time with interesting people.

Agreed

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by jimcameron

This use to be a really fun place to spend time with interesting people.

It was, and TRF reeeeally needs a separate section for pricing, speculation, etc.

Originally Posted by Howie

I remember when I first joined TRF back in 2008 it was known as 'the friendliest watch forum'...

TRF is still is friendly imho, yet the 'noise' level has become higher than the 'signal' within the General section.

The admins and mods need to find a way to migrate the noise level to a new section for price, speculation, etc

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

It was, and TRF reeeeally needs a separate section for pricing, speculation, etc.




It still is imho, yet the 'noise' level has become higher than the 'signal'.

Again, agreed

[Harry-57]

I'll take your "Price Speculation" section and raise you an "Is It Safe Section". (I'll keep the "WRUW" section, the "Incoming" section and the "Show Us Your Modified Rolex" section up my sleeve for now).

[ALF61]

Originally Posted by peterpl

How many of each you hoarding? See you on the for sale section. Join date 2019 aiy? So be honest how many did you buy at premium and now hoping your not going to get hosed?

lol!!!

[ALF61]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Thanks and yes, perhaps it is a bit overdue yet am sure the mods / admin are fluid enough to make the move now with a new board for those topics, which imho do not fall under General as TRF desperately needs a section for those other discussions as well. A win-win for all :)

If they do this, the forum will become very BORING !

[RobearH]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Thanks and yes, perhaps it is a bit overdue yet am sure the mods / admin are fluid enough to make the move now with a new board for those topics, which imho do not fall under General as TRF desperately needs a section for those other discussions as well. A win-win for all :)

Seeings how the Mods closed your two threads on the topic in the Open Discussion Forum I would say for an almost certainty this will not happen! JAT

[DTap]

This topic is so rampant because it’s ruining people’s outlook on the hobby. Arguably the most important topic at hand.

What’s to talk about if you can’t get anything?

[SN13]

Originally Posted by peterpl

How many of each you hoarding? See you on the for sale section. Join date 2019 aiy? So be honest how many did you buy at premium and now hoping your not going to get hosed?

LOL, Exactly my thoughts.


Grief Stage 1 (Denial): "Prices aren't going to go down... Look at these Auctions!"
Grief Stage 2 (Anger): (<~~~ You are about to enter this stage.) I await your "F*** the GREYS! Greedy Hoarders!" type posts.
Grief Stage 3 (Bargaining): Next will be the "You know, the extra $12k I paid wasn't so bad, I did get to enjoy the watch for a Year before anyone else who waited and paid MSRP."
Grief Stage 4 (Depression): Followed by "I can't believe I paid so much. I don't even like wearing it. It is a constant reminder of a $12k void."
Grief Stage 5 (Acceptance): Finally "I know I'll never recoup the cost, but I love it anyway and one day, it will be my Son's watch."

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Amen, though doubt Rolex has reduced their R&D when you consider all they do with creating oils, do their own gold mix in-house, movement R&D, etc. Once the bottom falls out of this massive bubble, as it always does, it will be very interesting to see how price-only TRF'ers react.

This infallible idea the rookies have of Rolex has become comical to many of us just taking the drama all in. Quite a new demographic Rolex has cultivated. I remember when Rolex made watches and owners would discuss trivial little items like movement and such. I am not sure these new owners know which end the battery fits in.

[The Libertine]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

It was, and TRF reeeeally needs a separate section for pricing, speculation, etc.




TRF is still is friendly imho, yet the 'noise' level has become higher than the 'signal' within the General section.

The admins and mods need to find a way to migrate the noise level to a new section for price, speculation, etc

Please. Let’s remove the rotten Apple before it ruins the rest of the bunch....

[Wiener48]

Strong results, yes

https://www.sothebys.com/buy/25e5416...e-1ba10a9dfc69

Originally Posted by Tavli3

I've been reading and watching videos of a few experts claiming prices are dropping and some cases dropping hard. I'm not going to dispute the fact that certain models of certain brands might not be dropping but The Rolex market is as strong as it's ever been. And that's not me saying it, it's Mr Market saying it.

Everybody agrees that a watch is only worth what people are willing to pay for it. You can say it another way also, that a watch IS worth what people are paying for it.

Sotheby's online auction that just closed. Strong pricing. No argument from me that its crazy pricing but that's what the market is saying these watches are worth. So the experts can say what they want I'll go by what people are actually paying.

BLNR Jubilee- 22.5K No drop here
BLRO- 25K Looks like an increase to me
116500LN Black Dial- 27.5K no drop here either
04 Kermit Flat 4- 21,250.00 lot of money for this.

I'll go with auction pricing over what is conveyed on C24 any day.

[stash21]

I look forward to "investors" and anyone who bought to make a profit taking a bath whilst I collect a BLRO at retail.

[rambo99]

batgirl is now selling at hkd 115,000. really dropping fast!

[Pimpsy]

It's true that the board used to be filled with happy incoming pics and Rolex minutiae (which I love) but the crazy market factors currently at play are interesting in their own right and do merit examination and discussion. People who don't find this interesting should just not open the thread instead of complaining...

Prices of some models are certainly going to drop, and likely soon. BLRO comes immediately to mind. I doubt though that we will see a synchronized price reduction across all SS watches as some seem to think. To suggest a "global recession" will be the catalyst for a price drop is to more or less say that economic boom is the primary driver of increased SS prices and I don't believe that.

SS popularity is primarily based on changing dress codes for work and desire for status in a less formal work environment. That's not going anywhere, and scarce models are going to command a healthy premium for a long time. Consequently, any model that becomes less scarce will see a corresponding drop in price.

[Podmornica]

I brought this up on the thread "prices are dropping hard", but I believe the stock of BLRO and BLNR is getting larger by the day and is moving really slow per chrono24. I have added the cheapest listings of these 2 references to my notepad about 10 weeks ago and they are still there - unsold.

Not sure if the prices will drop hard or not, but I believe they will melt considerably in the next 12 months as we see more BLRO and BLNR hitting the AD. People with the money willing to pay 100% premium probably bought it by now.

Also, my local AD quoted me 5 year waiting time for the BLRO and when I have visited him 2 weeks ago he advised it will be around 2 years now ...

[gabbysplace]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

CAN WE PLEASE HAVE A SEPARATE SECTION FOR PRICING / SPECULATION / ETC.

PLEASE

Ha! That never occurred to me, but given all the posts, it's a good idea.