The RO Blue Hype is heading toward 5711 territory

[rw2008]

Originally Posted by tng11

Doubt 15400 MSRP will raise to $25K - I don't see AP creating a price difference between the blue and white/black dials.

Despite all this talk of 15202s being hard to find and rare with multi-year waiting lists I still don't see any meaningful premium for brand new ones. Yes, pre-owned prices are up a bit, but the increase has been tiny compared to the 5711. That leads me to believe 5711 and 15202 prices are not that correlated and that the 5711 increase may not have that big of an effect on the blue APs as some owners would hope to happen.

As I've said in another thread - wake me up when 15202s hit $40K. Otherwise I will continue to enjoy mine without obsessing over the value of it.

Pretty sure he's talking market price, not MSRP. AP already essentially has a price increase on the Blue 15400 over the white/black by it being boutique only, and never discounted.

But, in general, I agree that the prices of 5711 and 15202s are probably not as related as I'd like to think. Begs to wonder though, why exactly are 5711 prices going though the roof whereas other "rare" pieces are not? Can't really just be supply, can it?

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by rw2008

Pretty sure he's talking market price, not MSRP. AP already essentially has a price increase on the Blue 15400 over the white/black by it being boutique only, and never discounted.

But, in general, I agree that the prices of 5711 and 15202s are probably not as related as I'd like to think. Begs to wonder though, why exactly are 5711 prices going though the roof whereas other "rare" pieces are not? Can't really just be supply, can it?

i honestly don't think the 15202 demand is there. AP is holding back and making it more scarce than it would be otherwise, but there isn't the same amount of interest. I think Patek is shipping every watch they make immediately to AD's and they fly off the shelves. Patek demand is real, im not convinced the AP demand is.

Scarcity (rarity) may be in the same ballpark but the demand isnt.

[denvercenturion]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

i honestly don't think the 15202 demand is there. AP is holding back and making it more scarce than it would be otherwise, but there isn't the same amount of interest. I think Patek is shipping every watch they make immediately to AD's and they fly off the shelves. Patek demand is real, im not convinced the AP demand is.

Scarcity (rarity) may be in the same ballpark but the demand isnt.

I think that the AP 15202 demand is real, its just artificially inflated like you suggest. If AP didn't hold back inventory I think all the pieces they shipped would fly off shelves but that demand after that would wane. I agree with the Patek demand, but I think with AP becoming more ubiquitous in pop culture demand is there, just for different reasons.

[singe89]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

i honestly don't think the 15202 demand is there. AP is holding back and making it more scarce than it would be otherwise, but there isn't the same amount of interest. I think Patek is shipping every watch they make immediately to AD's and they fly off the shelves. Patek demand is real, im not convinced the AP demand is.

Scarcity (rarity) may be in the same ballpark but the demand isnt.

You really think Patek couldn’t produce more 5711 or 5712 to meet demand? Patek, AP and Rolex could easily produce more basic movement watches to surpass demand but they don’t on purpose.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by singe89

You really think Patek couldn’t produce more 5711 or 5712 to meet demand? Patek, AP and Rolex could easily produce more basic movement watches to surpass demand but they don’t on purpose.

i think they could. What i am saying is if Patek makes 1000 5711's they ship them and sell them instantly. If AP makes 1000 15202's they dont ship them all and hold them back to create the illusion of more demand. If the demand was equal so would the secondary prices.

I actually think AP makes less 15202's than Patek makes 5711's. Look at the re sale. The demand isnt there (in a Patek sense). Maybe that is a good thing though as its less of a watch that people buy for no other reason than to re sell.

[Rachdanon]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

i honestly don't think the 15202 demand is there. AP is holding back and making it more scarce than it would be otherwise, but there isn't the same amount of interest. I think Patek is shipping every watch they make immediately to AD's and they fly off the shelves. Patek demand is real, im not convinced the AP demand is.

Scarcity (rarity) may be in the same ballpark but the demand isnt.

I think Patek is almost on par with Rolex in terms of brand power. Another way is to see it as Patek is the Rolex for the richer folk. So in terms of their iconic timepieces.. I see a big gap between AP and Patek. AP is still quite under the radar to the general public.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Rachdanon

I think Patek is almost on par with Rolex in terms of brand power. Another way is to see it as Patek is the Rolex for the richer folk. So in terms of their iconic timepieces.. I see a big gap between AP and Patek. AP is still quite under the radar to the general public.

its not scientific by any means, but compare 15202 incomings here vs 5711 incomings in the Patek forum. Almost everyone who is in to Patek has a 5711 or 12. Far less AP owners have a 15202. I love the watch, but im not playing games to get one when i can see that it shouldn't be that hard to get.

I agree that AP is under the radar. In europe its around a bit more, but the US its not known nearly enough.

[SC11]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

its not scientific by any means, but compare 15202 incomings here vs 5711 incomings in the Patek forum. Almost everyone who is in to Patek has a 5711 or 12. Far less AP owners have a 15202. I love the watch, but im not playing games to get one when i can see that it shouldn't be that hard to get.

I don’t think you need to play games I enquired about the 15202 and had the call on it a month or so later.

Agree though you can’t really compare the 5711/5712 Vs the 15202.

[kingofthehill]

Originally Posted by Rachdanon

I think Patek is almost on par with Rolex in terms of brand power. Another way is to see it as Patek is the Rolex for the richer folk. So in terms of their iconic timepieces.. I see a big gap between AP and Patek. AP is still quite under the radar to the general public.

I agree; Patek is increasingly ubiquitous.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by SC11

I don’t think you need to play games I enquired about the 15202 and had the call on it a month or so later.

Agree though you can’t really compare the 5711/5712 Vs the 15202.

i consider appointment only, service centers, restricting supply, and boutique only games though.

The 15202 to be fair is too similar to a 15300, 15400, 15450 to ever get the attention of a 5711. Thats the only nautilus with time and a date (only men's model that is). Its just not worth it to most people. That is 90% of the lack of insane demand right there. Then throw in multiple color dial variations among all the RO variants (silver, black, blue, grey) and you further split demand. Patek has two dial colors for the 5711 and funnels the demand better into two variants or one option in the case of a SS 5712.

[Watcheroo]

Originally Posted by SC11

Agree though you can’t really compare the 5711/5712 Vs the 15202.

Many people who love watches do though

[Watcheroo]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

The 15202 to be fair is too similar to a 15300, 15400, 15450...

To the average person, you’re probably right. In my mind they are quite different watches. Yes, I’m biased in that I own a 15202. It’s almost the perfect watch in my opinion, in any metal.

I also wouldn’t describe Patek as ubiquitous. Step out of the bubble we live in and most people don’t even know what Patek is.

[SC11]

Originally Posted by Watcheroo

Many people who love watches do though

I know hence why my comment was only in regards to supply and demand!

[Watcheroo]

Originally Posted by SC11

I know hence why my comment was only in regards to supply and demand!

Got it

[AK797]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

i consider appointment only, service centers, restricting supply, and boutique only games though.

The 15202 to be fair is too similar to a 15300, 15400, 15450 to ever get the attention of a 5711. Thats the only nautilus with time and a date (only men's model that is). Its just not worth it to most people. That is 90% of the lack of insane demand right there. Then throw in multiple color dial variations among all the RO variants (silver, black, blue, grey) and you further split demand. Patek has two dial colors for the 5711 and funnels the demand better into two variants or one option in the case of a SS 5712.

Also it has the seminal sports range of the ROO, which is where my AP money goes first, for a dressier smaller piece I look to Patek as do many others, and so the 5711 demand will always be higher just because within the brand it faces less competition at the under £30K level.

I think the 202 is under-supplied, they could sell a lot more if they produced more and then buyers could actually see them in AD windows, which we never do. With the Nautilus caught in the vicious cycle of ever rising prices and demand, AP should produce more of the 202 and scoop up all the frustrated 5711 demand.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Watcheroo

To the average person, you’re probably right. In my mind they are quite different watches. Yes, I’m biased in that I own a 15202. It’s almost the perfect watch in my opinion, in any metal.

I also wouldn’t describe Patek as ubiquitous. Step out of the bubble we live in and most people don’t even know what Patek is.

the 15202 is my favorite RO ever. Its a WIS watch as you alluded to and unfortunately there are not enough of us to make it a mass market success like a nautilus. Patek nautilus are far more mass market (in their category). WIS have them and people who just want an expensive watch and know nothing about watches have them.

IMO the "average" person who what creates the crazy demand because there are way more of them, not us... and with AP they have more choices in the many RO variants.

My first AP was a 15400 when i first got into the brand. Knowing what i know now it would have been a 15202 instead. Thats what im saying, those who dont know pass it right over.

[benlee]

I never warm up to the PP 5711A. Nearly all my WIS friends who are PP collectors got one and I have many chances to buy it in the past but didn't. I still much prefer my Jumbo 15202. A more exciting looking blue dial, a nicer looking bracelet and the design and proportion is perfect in every way. Both watches are currently in supply driven demand mode and will continue to be so. But I think many who buy 5711 is due to the resale cache. Less so for jumbo.

That said, the 5711 in RG is an entirely different story.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by benlee

I never warm up to the PP 5711A. Nearly all my WIS friends who are PP collectors got one and I have many chances to buy it in the past but didn't. I still much prefer my Jumbo 15202. A more exciting looking blue dial, a nicer looking bracelet and the design and proportion is perfect in every way. Both watches are currently in supply driven demand mode and will continue to be so. But I think many who buy 5711 is due to the resale cache. Less so for jumbo.

That said, the 5711 in RG is an entirely different story.

i agree. Its the one i would get. The only reason i would want a SS 5711 is the resale potential, but its not even close to my favorite SS patek. I also would get a SS 15202 vs a SS 5711

[Watcheroo]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

the 15202 is my favorite RO ever. Its a WIS watch as you alluded to and unfortunately there are not enough of us to make it a mass market success like a nautilus. Patek nautilus are far more mass market (in their category). WIS have them and people who just want an expensive watch and know nothing about watches have them.

IMO the "average" person who what creates the crazy demand because there are way more of them, not us... and with AP they have more choices in the many RO variants.

My first AP was a 15400 when i first got into the brand. Knowing what i know now it would have been a 15202 instead. Thats what im saying, those who dont know pass it right over.

Agreed, and you make a good point about the “average” person creating a lot of demand for the nautilus

[Rachdanon]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

the 15202 is my favorite RO ever. Its a WIS watch as you alluded to and unfortunately there are not enough of us to make it a mass market success like a nautilus. Patek nautilus are far more mass market (in their category). WIS have them and people who just want an expensive watch and know nothing about watches have them.

IMO the "average" person who what creates the crazy demand because there are way more of them, not us... and with AP they have more choices in the many RO variants.

My first AP was a 15400 when i first got into the brand. Knowing what i know now it would have been a 15202 instead. Thats what im saying, those who dont know pass it right over.

That about sums up this thread.

[tng11]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

the 15202 is my favorite RO ever. Its a WIS watch as you alluded to and unfortunately there are not enough of us to make it a mass market success like a nautilus. Patek nautilus are far more mass market (in their category). WIS have them and people who just want an expensive watch and know nothing about watches have them.

IMO the "average" person who what creates the crazy demand because there are way more of them, not us... and with AP they have more choices in the many RO variants.

My first AP was a 15400 when i first got into the brand. Knowing what i know now it would have been a 15202 instead. Thats what im saying, those who dont know pass it right over.

Spot on. I know when I bought my first AP which was a 15300, I saw the 15202 and couldn't fathom why anyone would pay a higher price for a watch without a in-house movement or seconds hand. It took me about 7 years of owning APs before I came around and became interested in the 15202. It's a piece specifically for WIS - otherwise, the 15400 is the superior watch to many AP buyers (seconds hand, lower price, bigger case size, and "in-house".)

I debating long and hard between the 5711 and 15202 starting in 2015 (when both were readily obtainable) to commemorate a particular milestone in 2017. After teetering back and forth I concluded that the 15202 is the better watch overall for me and I still stand by it. Sure, from a resale perspective the 5711 is far superior, but I had (and still have) zero intent of selling this piece that has sentimental value to me.

[singe89]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

i think they could. What i am saying is if Patek makes 1000 5711's they ship them and sell them instantly. If AP makes 1000 15202's they dont ship them all and hold them back to create the illusion of more demand. If the demand was equal so would the secondary prices.

I actually think AP makes less 15202's than Patek makes 5711's. Look at the re sale. The demand isnt there (in a Patek sense). Maybe that is a good thing though as its less of a watch that people buy for no other reason than to re sell.

I’m not suing demand is equal more that that all limit production to create more demand.

I would agree AP makes less 15202 than Patek makes 5711s and Patek makes less 5711 than Rolex makes Daytona’s. They all make and distribute way less than the demand to increase the buzz and secondary prices. I wouldn’t pay over retail for any of them.

We have no idea if any of them “make them and hold them back” or just make less production. In the end they all don’t make enough to inflate prices.

[rw2008]

A Trusted Seller has one for a hair above 18k.

So, to me, it doesn’t seem like prices on these are going anywhere super crazy soon.

[Cabaiguan]

Originally Posted by rw2008

A Trusted Seller has one for a hair above 18k.

So, to me, it doesn’t seem like prices on these are going anywhere super crazy soon.

On TRF? Link?

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Cabaiguan

On TRF? Link?

He is talking 15400 blue not jumbo. Thanh has it.

[Cabaiguan]

Originally Posted by GB-man

He is talking 15400 blue not jumbo. Thanh has it.

Ah, got it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tonupbklyn]

pre-owned 2014 jumbo just listed for USD25.5k.
interesting.

[DCheeta]

Originally Posted by tonupbklyn

pre-owned 2014 jumbo just listed for USD25.5k.
interesting.

I just saw that. I can’t remember the last time I saw one listed here, either. Whether the scarcity is organic or manufactured, I can see these hitting $30,000 USD before the year is over. Who knows though, I’m usually wrong about such things...that’s why I’m not a speculator.

[tonupbklyn]

Originally Posted by DCheeta

I just saw that. I can’t remember the last time I saw one listed here, either. Whether the scarcity is organic or manufactured, I can see these hitting $30,000 USD before the year is over. Who knows though, I’m usually wrong about such things...that’s why I’m not a speculator.

i certainly won't rule out that possiblity!

[tng11]

Originally Posted by DCheeta

I just saw that. I can’t remember the last time I saw one listed here, either. Whether the scarcity is organic or manufactured, I can see these hitting $30,000 USD before the year is over. Who knows though, I’m usually wrong about such things...that’s why I’m not a speculator.

The last one listed on here before the most recent one was just 2 weeks ago... April 2017 watch for $21.9K albeit not from a TS. The last TS one was in December at $22.5K.

This is going to sound silly, but I tend to find these price increases and non-availability have me enjoying my piece less. I worry about having it stolen or damaged and then not being able to find a replacement even with insurance, and end up leaving it in the safe deposit box more often. Whereas with commodified pieces, I am more free to just wear and enjoy.