When the market crashes, how many will be selling watches ?

[Time4aRolex]

On a macro level, If the economy contracts - there will at first be an oversupply of watches - Rolex included. This will drop prices and they will continue to attract buyers on the way down until there is a stabilization point that is artificially reinforced or is naturally supported. Rolex likely any other company adjusts production or at least what they are shipping to fit demand.

On a micro level - people needing cash would probably pair the herd - which would contribute to the oversupply.

During a recovery - demand outstrips supply - prices rise, and blah blah blah - what happens again is what is happening now.

On a personal level - I am keeping my 2 - they are the least of my worries in a pullback.

[rudestew]

I’d cut down on my cable package , coffee and dominos first then offload the girlfriend and lower the wife’s housekeeping , maybe pump the tyres up on my bicycle .

[SearChart]

Bought mine with spare cash, never selling, a financial crisis won't change that.

[LuminousMaximus]

It’s nice to think that the market will come down at some point.

I’m sure I will buy a couple more when that happens...

[GB-man]

I’ll be buying and selling regardless of the economy

[gettocard]

Sold them all with the 2008 mess. I didn't need to do it but I've got scared. Sold them and lost a lot. Paid 3K euro for a brand new V series no date sub and sold it 3 months later for 2750 euro..and look at it's value now. Completely stupid..

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by SearChart

Bought mine with spare cash, never selling, a financial crisis won't change that.

even a personal financial crisis????

[BNA/LION]

I'll be a Buyer! Hopefully some great prices on Watches and Real Estate.

[Bigblu10]

Originally Posted by hbombkid

I know a lot of things can happen in life and I believe I have planned correctly, but if the economy crashes and you need to sell a luxury watch you probably should not have one in the first place.

This sums it up in a nutshell.

[TeddyS]

If there is an economic slowdown I would assume that more stock will become available because less people will be buying them from AD’s as luxury items are the first to be hit. Flippers and Greys will take a hit though.. shame that


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[GradyPhilpott]

Originally Posted by 4srolex

Tesla and Facebook stock got crushed this week so maybe we are seeing the bubble finally starting to let some air out. Nobody can predict the future so just enjoy your watches.

As I've said many times, I don't know anything about money, but is it possible that Tesla and Facebook are suffering because of bad behavior by Musk and Zuckerberg?

[R!$]

there's plenty of speculators who bought are stockpiling SS Rolex who will flood the market

[droptopman]

No, but I have thought about moving a couple pieces before the correction to move into a YG Sub LB. Better to sell at the top of the market not after the crash.

[locutus49]

Crashes are the time to buy, not sell.

[V25V]

If the market crashes and I need to sell watches, I had no business buying them in the first place. This is play money and watches are big boy toys at the end of the day.


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[timedate]

Originally Posted by Hard_Six

I don't sell during market crashes. I buy.

great line,

you make your money when you buy,

houses are dropping in the uk

lots of houses unsold, people are sick of the government stamp duty, its a rip off.

[gabrielnovar]

lots would hit the market. Last recession wasn't bad unless you were in banking/finance/Construction.

Was a good op for other sectors....that being said yes everyone got hit a little bit and yes there will be tons of watches flooding the market to raise capital.

[GB-man]

I do know I’m pleased to have offloaded some unwanted pieces the last few months. Prices are definitely trending lower. I made a conscious decision to unload whatever I wasn’t wearing and whatever I paid over msrp to acquire. I have abandoned the pay to play model of acquiring what I want at market. Makes it hard to enjoy them feeling like a fool.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Gogetter

Will a crash make a lot of watches available to the market ?

Maybe?

The real question will be whether they are watches anyone wants to buy?

[Laszlo]

The market has already crashed. The everything bubble burst. Wait until Feb. It’s over.

[Bigblu10]

Originally Posted by V25V

If the market crashes and I need to sell watches, I had no business buying them in the first place. This is play money and watches are big boy toys at the end of the day.


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Yup.

[bayerische]

Honestly I'm looking forward to the next crash. Seriously.

[tbonesteak]

Reading through this thread, it feels like people are being intentionally obtuse. The theory on wealth effect is very real, and after a decade long bull market, that feeling is clearly on steroids based on comments in this thread.

Nobody thinks an economic contraction will impact themselves, which only exasperates the problem. I’ve already started my preparations, tightening, and preparing as the Fed appears to be taking away the punch bowl we’re all so drunk on.

If you believe an economic contraction & a stock market correction of 30-40% won’t hurt your A) portfolio B) paycheck C) mindset and impact the entire luxury goods market (watches includes), I’ve got a bridge to sell you (and a SS Daytona for $22k).

[V25V]

Originally Posted by tbonesteak

Reading through this thread, it feels like people are being intentionally obtuse. The theory on wealth effect is very real, and after a decade long bull market, that feeling is clearly on steroids based on comments in this thread.

Nobody thinks an economic contraction will impact themselves, which only exasperates the problem. I’ve already started my preparations, tightening, and preparing as the Fed appears to be taking away the punch bowl we’re all so drunk on.

If you believe an economic contraction & a stock market correction of 30-40% won’t hurt your A) portfolio B) paycheck C) mindset and impact the entire luxury goods market (watches includes), I’ve got a bridge to sell you (and a SS Daytona for $22k).

If you have cash on hand, I see no problem with any of your scenarios here. So you are saying those of us who don't need cash and would not need to sell our watches to pay bills are underprepared? If someone is really considering having to sell their watches as part of their "investment portfolio", they likely should have never bought them in the first place. And will be the exact people who those like me will be buying from at a steep discount.

Been through a recession before, nothing new here.


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[Randy63]

Originally Posted by tbonesteak

Reading through this thread, it feels like people are being intentionally obtuse. The theory on wealth effect is very real, and after a decade long bull market, that feeling is clearly on steroids based on comments in this thread.

Nobody thinks an economic contraction will impact themselves, which only exasperates the problem. I’ve already started my preparations, tightening, and preparing as the Fed appears to be taking away the punch bowl we’re all so drunk on.

If you believe an economic contraction & a stock market correction of 30-40% won’t hurt your A) portfolio B) paycheck C) mindset and impact the entire luxury goods market (watches includes), I’ve got a bridge to sell you (and a SS Daytona for $22k).

The truth.

Randy

[tbonesteak]

Originally Posted by V25V

If you have cash on hand, I see no problem with any of your scenarios here. So you are saying those of us who don't need cash and would not need to sell our watches to pay bills are underprepared? If someone is really considering having to sell their watches as part of their "investment portfolio", they likely should have never bought them in the first place. And will be the exact people who those like me will be buying from at a steep discount.

Been through a recession before, nothing new here.


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No, this isn’t at all what I’m saying, nor what wealth effect implies. There is a gigantic amount of demand, which has been created by the wealth effect - when we contract, that demand will evaporate. When that happens, the cost of goods will come down. It’ll start (and if this really is the end of the bull market) shortly at lower end of the luxury goods market, and work its way up all the way to the big **** billionaires by the end.

If you have $100mm and 12 months later you have $70mm dollars, you’ll obviously still be in tip top shape no matter what (unless you’re a brain-dead trust fund baby), but you’ll obviously feel it too. By the end of a recession, that pain will be felt all the way up to the pieces of art selling for $xx,xxx,xxx. It’s really simple looking at numbers, and it doesn’t take a Harvard MBA economist to do the math.

[tbonesteak]

To note, I say this as someone who owns a 6 figure watch collection, a collection I intend on keeping forever and passing on to my children.

BUT, I’m well aware that the real value of that collection will come down in the next contraction we face. It doesn’t bother me, as this collection was built on free and clear discretionary spending.

[V25V]

Originally Posted by tbonesteak

No, this isn’t at all what I’m saying, nor what wealth effect implies. There is a gigantic amount of demand, which has been created by the wealth effect - when we contract, that demand will evaporate. When that happens, the cost of goods will come down. It’ll start (and if this really is the end of the bull market) shortly at lower end of the luxury goods market, and work its way up all the way to the big **** billionaires by the end.



If you have $100mm and 12 months later you have $70mm dollars, you’ll obviously still be in tip top shape no matter what (unless you’re a brain-dead trust fund baby), but you’ll obviously feel it too. By the end of a recession, that pain will be felt all the way up to the pieces of art selling for $xx,xxx,xxx. It’s really simple looking at numbers, and it doesn’t take a Harvard MBA economist to do the math.

I guess I still do not understand then what you are trying to say. You say your comment was based on some responses in this thread? What responses? Most I see are those kinda like myself who would be buyers for more watches once the market drops and these come available at lower prices. So why are people being obtuse?


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[Flyinghunter]

If Rolex prices come down with a market correction (overdue in my opinion), I'll be searching for my first GMT.

If you pay down, payoff, and live below your means during bull markets - you will benefit during bear markets.

[wisguy]

When the market crashes?

We're having the worst December since 1932... I could have bought some serious watches with what I've "lost" this month alone.

But... don't panic and never try to time the market.