Talking Stocks 2.0

[JParm]

Prices aren't there yet for me to add to current positions, but I did buy into V and CSCO.

If they go down a significant amount in the future, I'll just average down. But at today's prices, I feel comfortable that I'll do fine in the long run.

[Duey]

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

That month-end rally was the several trillion dollar indexed fund market rebalancing their "60/40" debt/equity allocation (example) and smart money covering and locking in short gains.

Fact is, this country has never laid off 20MM people in a month and rehired them all back in what we're hoping is a "big bounce" back... You are nuts if you think this doesn't have meaningful long-term impacts.

This stimulus bill is non-sense... good luck getting a bank to give your small business a Guaranteed SBA loan within the next month. All my banking friends are saying its a sh_tshow with no real hope of getting meaningfully off the ground in the near term. Classic legislation with no real teeth on how to execute, but it shifted the blame from DC to the Banks... so that should help with re-elections.

Anyway, YMMV... good luck with luck your bargain hunting

Well said

As for the banks it would be pure fantasy to believe their ready to start handing out money to any business in this current situation.

I read that 630,000 business are currently closed and this number is expected to grown. And they expect unemployment to hit over 30%.

[beshannon]

WMT, PG are the only two Dow 30 stocks in the green, TGT, KR and CLX are doing well also

10/1 on the downside on light volume but the number of new lows is declining also

I just added small positions in HD and VZ

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by Duey

Well said

As for the banks it would be pure fantasy to believe their ready to start handing out money to any business in this current situation.

I read that 630,000 business are currently closed and this number is expected to grown. And they expect unemployment to hit over 30%.

Do you remember when JPM was forced to buy WaMu and Bear Stearns? Then fined $13,000,000,000 several years later to atone for the sins that WaMu and Bear committed prior that led up to the crisis? I do... Im sure JPM does as well.

You cannot take an SBA process that was largely broken and inefficient to begin with and think Banks are gonna rubber stamp approvals that the SBA administrators will deny down the road left and right if the underwriting wasn't perfect. Who do you think will need to verify and certify that the borrowers followed the rules?

In addition to the Banks need to focus on the rest of their house that's burning...

Funny that people are still worried about N95 mask shipments (yes i know PPE is important) and ventilators but they are missing how many rent/mortgage/payroll/loan payments that have just suddenly stopped already...

Ventilators will turn into a liability once we realize that they are mostly prolonging the inevitable for the vulnerable and using up additional beds, medical resources, etc.

Not to seem callous or overtly negative, but those are just perspectives I've gleaned in the last week or so.

Again, YMMV. Disclosure: I have several short positions on SPY puts but am long on my long-term portfolio/retirement accounts (that is to stay im not touching those).

[m j b]

If I had just stuck to my guns with that CCL (Carnival) short... it's down another 30% today.

Oh well. Not going to worry about what could have been.

My portfolio (which is largely from stuff that I bought in the last two weeks) is mostly red today. Sad. I don't have quite the cash reserves that I'd like, to buy more, but I fear that the carnage is not over.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by m j b

If I had just stuck to my guns with that CCL (Carnival) short... it's down another 30% today.

Oh well. Not going to worry about what could have been.

My portfolio (which is largely from stuff that I bought in the last two weeks) is mostly red today. Sad. I don't have quite the cash reserves that I'd like, to buy more, but I fear that the carnage is not over.

I think most people's are today. Agree that the worst is not past us just yet, but still a good time time to buy chunks here and there.

[kieselguhr]

Originally Posted by m j b

If I had just stuck to my guns with that CCL (Carnival) short... it's down another 30% today.

Oh well. Not going to worry about what could have been.

My portfolio (which is largely from stuff that I bought in the last two weeks) is mostly red today. Sad. I don't have quite the cash reserves that I'd like, to buy more, but I fear that the carnage is not over.

Purchased a whole lot of CCL today. CCL, MGM, and AMD are my biggest positions. Also had the opportunity to average on AMD. MGM didn’t quite make it down to single digits but I still purchased a decent amount.

[Duey]

I think CCL for investors right now is a lot like GM in first few months of 2009.

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by Duey

I think CCL for investors right now is a lot like GM in first few months of 2009.

CCL flies many non-US flags on their ships... they avoid US taxes and follow international labor laws. They’re gonna try for a bail out but they’re toast... Nobody in their right mind will step foot on a cruise ship for another year.

Question is what can you use those ships for in the meantime? Shame they can’t load up on crude oil. Makes me think of the billions of square feet of office space that is just sitting empty right now... strange time

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

Purchased a whole lot of CCL today. CCL, MGM, and AMD are my biggest positions. Also had the opportunity to average on AMD. MGM didn’t quite make it down to single digits but I still purchased a decent amount.

MGM was my corona bailout. I got really lucky and rode it until bailing at $14.11 the other day. Made me whole for 2020.

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

Do you remember when JPM was forced to buy WaMu and Bear Stearns? Then fined $13,000,000,000 several years later to atone for the sins that WaMu and Bear committed prior that led up to the crisis? I do... Im sure JPM does as well.

You cannot take an SBA process that was largely broken and inefficient to begin with and think Banks are gonna rubber stamp approvals that the SBA administrators will deny down the road left and right if the underwriting wasn't perfect. Who do you think will need to verify and certify that the borrowers followed the rules?

In addition to the Banks need to focus on the rest of their house that's burning...

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...bility-worries

[JParm]

Bull trap, dead cat bounce, whatever you want to call it - I think many of us in this group were warning about this during the highs last week and pointing to other historical markets as reference points.

And today futures is showing a 2% increase for really no apparent reason (in my mind)...

All this to say that there is too much volatility in the market to make rash decisions. Just a friendly PSA to stay disciplined, look for value and don't make emotional decisions!

[m j b]

Huh. My post got deleted. I wonder how that happened. Maybe I clicked the wrong button.

Bummer.

Well, I had linked to an article in USAToday wherein Rick Perry said that the oil industry will get hammered.

I was going to update the post with this link to a NYT article that is quite pessimistic about the recovery. Of course, the author is a economics journalist, not an actual economist, so take it with a grain of sale.

And then there's this NYT article about how poorly auto sales did last month, which is before the nearly nationwide lockdown that we're experiencing now.

I think I'm going to buy a gold ETF today.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Bull trap, dead cat bounce, whatever you want to call it - I think many of us in this group were warning about this during the highs last week and pointing to other historical markets as reference points.

And today futures is showing a 2% increase for really no apparent reason (in my mind)...

All this to say that there is too much volatility in the market to make rash decisions. Just a friendly PSA to stay disciplined, look for value and don't make emotional decisions!

Exactly, not looking for bottoms, there are always values to be found.

I continue to analyze various equities and look at the overall tone of the markets. The bounce today (at least at the open) is for several reasons, oil is higher, too much of a sell off yesterday, a 14 multiple on the S&P is 2350 so we are closer to a discount to fair value than we are being over valued. That is enough for me to go looking for either averaging down opportunities or new positions.

Looking at MS, WBA, DIS (upgrade) and CL today

[patrickjb]

Jobless claims to 6.6 Million, horrific. Expecting some more turbulence from this...

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by patrickjb

Jobless claims to 6.6 Million, horrific. Expecting some more turbulence from this...

Futures just went negative, this was a known number so if people want to drive the markets down, I can be patient and wait to buy. This news was already known, people just like to panic.

[bryan13]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Futures just went negative, this was a known number so if people want to drive the markets down, I can be patient and wait to buy. This news was already known, people just like to panic.

I don't think we should downplay this news in any way. This number topped even the highest estimates and is double what it was last week. With the virus situation worsening day by day, most (95%+) will not be able to regain employment anytime soon.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by bryan13

I don't think we should downplay this news in any way. This number topped even the highest estimates and is double what it was last week. With the virus situation worsening day by day, most (95%+) will not be able to regain employment anytime soon.

I don't think it's a downplay of news - it's a comment on the market.

We saw last week that when 3+ million unemployed was announced, the markets went...UP.

Unemployment numbers priced in? Maybe. We are in the talking stocks thread, after all.

[bryan13]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I don't think it's a downplay of news - it's a comment on the market.

We saw last week that when 3+ million unemployed was announced, the markets went...UP.

Unemployment numbers priced in? Maybe. We are in the talking stocks thread, after all.

my bad, misinterpreted the comment.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by bryan13

my bad, misinterpreted the comment.

[Duey]

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

CCL flies many non-US flags on their ships... they avoid US taxes and follow international labor laws. They’re gonna try for a bail out but they’re toast... Nobody in their right mind will step foot on a cruise ship for another year.

I think they'll be the first section we see file for bankruptcy even if they do get a bailout of some kind. Like you said what can you do with the ships in their current configuration.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Duey

I think they'll be the first section we see file for bankruptcy even if they do get a bailout of some kind. Like you said what can you do with the ships in their current configuration.

Oil.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/the-...hapter-11.html

[Duey]

Oil is the big hammer in the other hand. I'm a big fan of MRO but now some say the number could be $2 (but it is up 15% right now)

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Oil.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/the-...hapter-11.html

One tweet and it’s soars 22%

[JParm]

Originally Posted by brandrea

One tweet and it’s soars 22%

Haha, the power of that little blue bird...

[Duey]

Originally Posted by brandrea

One tweet and it’s soars 22%

And I bet Cramer the clown had some shares too

[m j b]

I just shorted oil (by buying PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BLOOMBERG CRUDE OIL (SCO)) and then decided that it was a stupid thing to do since I have no idea what I'm doing when it comes to commodities (or, from recent experience, the stock market) so I sold them.

Made $400 in 10 minutes. I can go home now.

No, wait, I am home. Dang.

Well, that makes up for the stupid loss I took yesterday trying to go long on the market.

And yes, I know, if I'd kept yesterday's long instead of cutting my losses at 3:30, I'd be up on that today. But I don't like holding leveraged ETFs overnight.

[trippinjimmy]

Anybody else wake up to find LK lose 80% of its value?

[FlashinLeather]

Originally Posted by trippinjimmy

Anybody else wake up to find LK lose 80% of its value?

Yea pretty crazy. Hopefully you weren't in it - that is brutal.

[trippinjimmy]

Originally Posted by FlashinLeather

Yea pretty crazy. Hopefully you weren't in it - that is brutal.

Not enough that I'll lose sleep over it, but it's annoying...trying to decide if I should average down or just see how it plays out.