Will the 5711 bubble ever burst?

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by RussW

Is this different to what he previously got?

Sounds close to previous deliveries for a large AD to me


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[ragsk]

Yes small ADs get two blue dial a year and larger ones 3 or 4. They get less of the white dial.

They get told their annual allocations in February I believe.

[Flex368]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

5711 1/a has been running since 2008.

Since 2006 I believe.

[RussW]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

Interesting comment and I agree the power of the simple time only nautilus is amazing. Now there I no way you can compare 3700 to 5711 in my view! Production numbers alone are wildly different. 3700 1/a they made about 3500 of which only a percent of them are in collectible condition (say 1200-1800 collectible condition 3700 1/a?).

5711 1/a has been running since 2008. I have no idea how many 5711 have been made but let’s take a conservative view of 3 5711 1/a delivered to each AD per year, 434 ADs worldwide.... so that’s 3 x 434 = 1302, 1302 x 10 = 13,020.... so there could be already 13,000 5711 1/a and production continues! My guess and happy to hear other views. Be well!


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I agree with this view (but add another year - 5711 introduced towards the end of 2006, so not sure if deliveries started in 2007).

Originally Posted by thomaspp

Very interesting! I have wondered for a long time if collectors would in fact seek out Geneva seal pateks and in fact mark a separating point for what some people want to collect.


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Yes I’ve wondered this as well. So far not seen any evidence of this. 5711 secondary prices seem to decline with age. Could be a factor in the future as collectors look for a way to distinguish between 5711s.

Alternatively, depending how long the current blue dial with the cartouche runs for, that might be the one collectors want though. Surely the 5711 can’t run for another 12 years? So the current version might end up comparatively rarer.

[1William]

The collectors and speculators who have driven the price on the 5711 up will at some point adjust their sights onto another watch or watches and the market will shift. Same with the SS Daytona. Does that mean that they will be selling below retail? Doubt it. But like everything it will adjust. The real question is when and how much. At some point consumer will move on from the current speculative watch market for few hot watches and brands and I do not believe it will take a financial crisis although that could cause it.

[lmcgbaj]

I remember when PP grand complications were the only sure bet. Nowadays, sports models took over. I think it's a hype driven by social media. This is not sustainable IMO.

When a plain jain 5711 costs more than 5960P or Platinum Datograph, there is a problem there.

[GB-man]

Poll results really speak to the “who the @#$& knows” atmosphere of the current market.

[thomaspp]

Originally Posted by Flex368

Since 2006 I believe.

Originally Posted by RussW

I agree with this view (but add another year - 5711 introduced towards the end of 2006, so not sure if deliveries started in 2007).



Yes I’ve wondered this as well. So far not seen any evidence of this. 5711 secondary prices seem to decline with age. Could be a factor in the future as collectors look for a way to distinguish between 5711s.

Alternatively, depending how long the current blue dial with the cartouche runs for, that might be the one collectors want though. Surely the 5711 can’t run for another 12 years? So the current version might end up comparatively rarer.

2006, thanks! Even worse! I really love a 5711 (who doesn't!) but current state of affairs is just silly

[joshua182]

Yes yes all things that rise should fall..

cept when they dont.

[soundserious]

Pay up. One way or another everybody pays market price.

[Sam Philip]

Originally Posted by ragsk

Yes small ADs get two blue dial a year and larger ones 3 or 4. They get less of the white dial.

They get told their annual allocations in February I believe.

I have been told the same

[RussW]

Originally Posted by lmcgbaj

I remember when PP grand complications were the only sure bet. Nowadays, sports models took over. I think it's a hype driven by social media. This is not sustainable IMO.

When a plain jain 5711 costs more than 5960P or Platinum Datograph, there is a problem there.

A further indication of just how popular sports models have become - watchclub have a 2006 5070g for less than Watchfinder’s 2006 5980/1a. I didn’t think I’d see the day a 5980 was going for more than a 5070.

[Sam Philip]

Originally Posted by Busyboy

To my relatively naive eye, the pieces on WF that were recently being snapped up, are now hanging around a bit

I noted the same

[Ichiran]

Anyone knows how many sports watches Rolex made annually? 100,000, 200,000, 300,000 or 400,000? Are we under some kind of impression that Rolex has difficulty selling these sport models? Clearly there is a huge market demand for premium sport watches based on the empty display cases we see across the globe.

Granted Rolex and Patek are in different price points. But we just need 1 to 2% of those Rolex aficionados (where do they go after collecting all the GMT, sub, Daytona and AD? - Omega/Breitling? I doubt so) to buy into the very small production 5711 to create a 5 to 10 year waiting list for said watch. My guess is Patek only makes 300 blue 5711 and 250 white 5711 (only the Sterns know the true figure) per year. My AD group has 5 dealerships listed amongst the 434 Patek dealers, and they only receive 4-5 blue per year across the whole group. True story.

[321Forever]

Originally Posted by 1William

The collectors and speculators who have driven the price on the 5711 up will at some point adjust their sights onto another watch or watches and the market will shift. Same with the SS Daytona. Does that mean that they will be selling below retail? Doubt it. But like everything it will adjust. The real question is when and how much. At some point consumer will move on from the current speculative watch market for few hot watches and brands and I do not believe it will take a financial crisis although that could cause it.

Agreed. That’s a part of the Panerai story (as well as oversupply).

[wisguy]

Well I did it, kinda crazy but I don't regret it.

Don't plan on selling unless I have to someday, if I lose some money, so be it.

[gmstevenson]

Originally Posted by wisguy

Well I did it, kinda crazy but I don't regret it.

Don't plan on selling unless I have to someday, if I lose some money, so be it.

Beautiful. Congratulations!

[Ichiran]

Congrats OP! You won't regret it

Very nice shade of grayish blue there

[soundserious]

Beauty of pics, epic watch. Congrats!

[Keldw]

Bought one myself this year as well. Paid retail + $4.000 on top. To me it’s well worth it. It’s bought to wear and enjoy so if prices crumble..so be it. I’ll still wear it with great joy


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[josephvman]

I don’t think we’ll ever see MSRP, or much less than +20%, but they’re due for a pretty big adjustment. There’s no shortage in the secondary market and the greys and brokers are going to stop paying crazy money to get inventory at some point. I don’t think end users are driving the market, but more a general greater-fool environment at this time. But if you’ve got the money, life is short.

[Descro]

Give me crazy but in April this year I took a double seal for € 40,000 ... if the stamp breaks out at Christmas I open it and I wear it!

[kingofthehill]

Originally Posted by Descro

Give me crazy but in April this year I took a double seal for € 40,000 ... if the stamp breaks out at Christmas I open it and I wear it!

How do you get on with your 5712R? Is it comfortable?

[Descro]

In my opinion the 5712r is exceptional!
excellent portability and great class!

[Plastique999]

There are always market corrections in luxury items. Follows the economy. I collect cars and watch certain Ferrari’s and Porsche’s closely. The peak of the car market was around August 2016. Values were super inflated and there was about a 10-15% pullback in certain collectible cars. Now in the last 6 months there has been a bit of a rise again.
This, of course, depends on which pieces we are talking about (cars or watches). For example, the Ferrari Speciale has never dropped back to MSRP and the Aperta doubled in value instantly. The 5712/11 are analogous to these 2 models. Don’t think they will pull back to MSRP but there will always be pull backs in price, ebbs and flows,
in relation to the economy. Some predict a drop/recession in the economy (U.S.) in the next year or 2....that would be the time to go on a buying frenzy. But who can predict?


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[wesleyvs]

Don't think a burst but it will drop eventually a bit. If you look at other models from other brands who were very hyped a few years back and now dropped in prices (example Royal Oak Offshore and Panerais etc), this can happen with the Nautilus too. It was never really THE Patek to have a few years back and now suddenly everyone wants a 5711/12 or 5167.

Still they are very nice but the prices now are absurd compared with a let's say 5960.
I would always take any 5960 over a 5711. And so are there more watches who give much more for that price.

Cheers

[Kittayos]

When demand is 100 times greater than supply, I don't see any reason why 5711 price will not climb up eventually.

[Hermann]

The price will not brust, because the 5711A is one oft the cheapest Patek sport watches when you get one from your AD.
Don’t worry Rolex sells a lot more Daytonas and the price is still over 50% more than the list price.
For a lot people a Patek is also a life investment.
For me the 5711R or the 5711P is the most beautiful actual Nautilus

[ragsk]

I think current prices are unsustainable. Will probably settle at a 50% premium.

[Marciano490]

I was thinking the other day about prices for this watch in terms of a stock with points of resistance and it dawned on me that I don’t recall it ever really trading in the 30s. I recall it going for just over retail about a year and a half ago, and being offered some at 28ish. Then it seemed to shoot right to the 40s, then 50s and now back to the 40s.

Is this just me or did it seem to rocket right from the high 20s to low 40s?