hey guys, rolex GMT Bubble begin to burst !

[Brian Page]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

Obligatory.

[beachboy17]

I couldn't agree more with Explorer Steve

[Noonan]

Tested out your theory of it bursting.

Reached out to a seller here who listed OBRO in their post. I offered full MSRP +$700 to cover paid taxes and shipping. I regret to inform that full MSRP is still considered low balling by our resident flip...I mean sellers.

[dkast85]

people have been saying the bubble is about to burst for a long time now. If they are selling for 1k over retail and if your AD can't get you one, the market is still strong. You can't talk the market into doing what you want.

[Chadridv]

Rumor has it the situation in Hong Kong might start to affect the market.

[Onikage]

Originally Posted by TheWatchStandard

let's be honest here, Rolex will NOT want one of their popular watch to go up twice in retail value, then takes a deep dive after a few months...that's just bad for the brand.

The old trick to protect that from happening is to cut global stock, but that card has been played out, so many times..with China watch market now in shamble, I assume Rolex will re-gather their game plan to prevent they find themselves in this position again. And that usually means going after the grey market.

Aren't there grey dealers worldwide who will just take China's place? Who simply buy up all they can? I don't see how this will be even an impact. The demand for this stuff worldwide hasn't fallen either. Despite China being a massive segment. A lot of people still want their GMTs and Daytonas from what I can see anyway.

[Ace775]

A 1k drop in grey market prices can’t really be termed as a “burst bubble” with rolex , considering the way demand is still way way higher than supply . Spoke to a couple of ADs and two greys and still the same story . Ofcourse the grey would wanna try and sell as high as they can and an AD will only give it you with a prior purchase relationship of 30-40k or more and for pieces like Daytona/Gmt , it’s next to impossible. The Daytona has been out for years and the BLRO is no less than an icon , so I really don’t see this situation change anytime soon .

[scubadds]

I think there is a lot of these watches that were immediately flipped all at once....
A local non-ad dealer told me that the BLRO was a watch that will go thru 2-3 hands before it hits the owner. The dealer, then a buyer that flips, then that goes to another buyer that flips it higher. Not sure if its true, but it makes sense to me.

[pkincy]

Originally Posted by Mlioon

I reached out to bobs to sell my BLRO in August, offer was 16.5k. I kept it as it is now my favorite watch, received an email from them yesterday offering 12k. They said they have a lot of BLRO inventory that is not moving

That is actually a measurable data point. Thank you.

[Wahlberg]

I still wonder who the people are that are paying 14-16k usd.

Could they please raise their hands?

[DJTOSUB]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

I still wonder who the people are that are paying 14-16k usd.

Could they please raise their hands?

I think I would be a buyout at $13K USD.

[daOnlyBG]

A lot of people here forget that there's a natural drop in price once warranties expire.

It's 2019. A lot of these hot models came out in 2014- and for the ones with 5 year warranties (which started in what, 2015-2016?) the price can't be same for a watch with 1-2 years left than with 4-5 years left.

It's of natural consequence that prices begin to taper off. Especially if you're a grey market seller who's been hoarding off Hulks and took your sweet a** time asking for $6-7K premiums.

[TheWatchStandard]

Originally Posted by Onikage

Aren't there grey dealers worldwide who will just take China's place? Who simply buy up all they can? I don't see how this will be even an impact. The demand for this stuff worldwide hasn't fallen either. Despite China being a massive segment. A lot of people still want their GMTs and Daytonas from what I can see anyway.

It is true that demand globally hasn't fallen much for BLNR or pepsi, but with Hong Kong market (which is one of the biggest market for grey dealer) now virtually can't conduct any business, and AD are on its last quarter of performance review. It's very likely that both BLNR and Pepsi prices will stay around $2-3000 over retail, instead of over $17k like it used to.

I've seen Rolex penalized smaller AD for some BS just so they can give inventories to bigger, stronger ADs. Therefore, limiting grey market dealers getting their hands on popular models.

[akilis]

Originally Posted by In-Cog-Neeto

The market has for sure softened

But it’s still insane out there

yes, still no way to get ss model for a no history person

[akilis]

Originally Posted by Homo Sapien X

Last week, I dropped by an AD who informed she has one each of Batman and Pepsi, but only when I buy another piece like $20k Cellini. This hardly come by previously.

Unfortunately, VC Overseas is in my bucket list, not a Rolex . And it would certainly cost me an arm to buy 2 Rolex at one go.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

lol, I think that's what they do in China too. no games, get you to buy inventory . I just saw a black dial 4500 in Vancouver

[akilis]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Biggest market in the planet is suffering bigtime.

HK is down the shitter. Thought it was going to be ok for a while because Lam dismissed the exporting of ppl to mainland but the riots have gotten worse as of late with no end in sight. Business is suffering BADLY in HK at the moment. Tourism down 40-50% from figures last week and billions lost in business. If it keeps going HK as a major business hub is gone. I know soo many people trying to get their money out of HK right now hence Australian Real Estate if booming again!!! Good for me I guess. LOL

This is no doubt going to have a massive impact on global watch pricing. HK grays where the worst or one of the worst for hoarding SS hot models and artificially inflating the prices. LOL

yes, it could be an effect to watch community that we didn't even notice

[akilis]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

UK MSRP for a SS BLRO is £7,150. Lowest UK Grey offer I have seen in recent memory was around £15,500. That's bubble money. Even if the seller will haggle.

UK seems much more expensive than US or EVEN JAPAN ! just buy from US and get them to ship it over to UK

[akilis]

Originally Posted by Mlioon

I reached out to bobs to sell my BLRO in August, offer was 16.5k. I kept it as it is now my favorite watch, received an email from them yesterday offering 12k. They said they have a lot of BLRO inventory that is not moving

oh wow !!! thank you for your information !

[akilis]

Originally Posted by 3sheets86

I’m in the UK and use watchfinder as an offer yardstick. They are currently offering 10-10.5 for a BLNR, under 12 months old and little wear but were offering about £1,000 more just after Basel yet they only offer 11-11.5 for a good 116520 which I find odd. I would have thought that the 116520 is well on the collector radar and perhaps that is the difference. Long time discontinued model on the slow increase due to collector market, newly discontinued hits a plateau quickly due to speculator interest.

get the 116520 for sure, that's what i own right now

[akilis]

Originally Posted by boothus

I’ve only been here for a few months but if I had a penny for every ‘bubble burst’ post I’ve seen since I’d be a few quid closer to buying my second (thanks to the bubble bursting now much cheaper) Rolex.

It baffles me how these tiny observations keep leading to so much generalisation. It’s almost like with cryptocurrencies now.

go to "for sale" section and see if i am making this up

[akilis]

Originally Posted by In-Cog-Neeto

My buddy was offered £13k for his new unworn 126710BLNR by Grey but decided to keep and wear it (the crazy fool - who buys a watch to wear these days?! J/k)

I have now seen them new unworn for £11.5k

The new batman just didn’t seem to hold its peak very long, and there appears to be a lot more of them available than the BLRO

not worth for you

[akilis]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Nada. Chrono24 still has the new BLNR from $15.5 to $18.5. BLRO is $17- $19k. Our trusted sellers like DavidSW which knows his market is selling the BLNR at $16k.

Davidsw has one 15k

[akilis]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

I’ve seen more stock in the US (coast - coast) in the last 3 months then the last 2 years. Spoke with one AD I visit, his point was with a pull back in the grey market people aren’t buying a sub and taking a chance of flipping it to make only $500-1000. Now the key is to get the AD to sell you what they have. Also stopped by a very big grey, super-nice guy he said he had 30 subs in stock and wasn’t looking for any till inventory sold down. Sure GMT market is somewhat similar.

thank you for your information

[akilis]

Originally Posted by jarreola

i've been on the market for a BLNR and prices have definitely decreased. While I made and got declined multiple $17k offers on chrono24 a couple of months ago... I currently have 3 sellers texting me insisting on taking a brand new BLNR for 14.5k.

batgirl should be around 14-14.5 now max

[akilis]

Originally Posted by dori

We all know you own a grey market BLNR. So I know it hurts ya little hole, but yes man, prices on new BLNR are soft as they’ve ever been right now (check chrono24 offers from 14.6K$ ). BLRO has been also slowly dropping (some offers at 17K$) but is still higher than BLNR .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think it will continue to drop to be honest

[watchmework]

Sometimes I wonder if people start these threads in hope that it will somehow lower the market price and everyone will run to sell their watches before the prices “crash”. I’ve been following the Pepsi prices pretty closely and as a few other have commented the 16k the OP mentioned is not realistic.

[akilis]

Originally Posted by ganagati

I’ve been noticing more and more price reductions on WatchRecon in contrast to the price increases that were happening a few months ago.

not the daytona tho, it stay or slowly increase

[akilis]

Originally Posted by Cloudchaser

Having tracked prices very carefully, I can write confidently that prices have returned to, roughly, what they were about one year ago. FWIW.

same say the price will go up during the xmas

[akilis]

Originally Posted by moneymike83

The demands still high. Depends on condition.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

yes, it is

[akilis]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

Agree and do not consider it a bursting of the bubble. Especially when you factor in the loss of demand from Hong Kong.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think they just close the store on Sunday, not everyday