Another "My AD said..."

[ArtNouveau]

I know a groan is expected whenever someone brings up what their AD told them but I had a refreshing conversation last night that bears repeating.
I have known my friend at the Houston Boutique since I bought my first watch from him in 1997 at the newly opened local Tourneau. Since then he's worked at three other local Rolex jewellers and has been at the Boutique since it opened.
I called him two weeks ago and was surprised to find they had a BLNR in stock and bought it straight from its shipping coffin that night. Yesterday I went back just to chat and of course the subject of SS sport model shortages came up. His take was much less conspiratorial that what is usually said here. He simply said that Rolex projects their production needs several years out, a textbook business practice. The last few years have NOT been great for watch sales at least in the US, and they simply weren't ready for the increased demand this year. It will be remedied for next year he feels certain. He said their supply was pretty abundant until just the last couple of months, they were still getting some but much less. As a boutique they get the best supply, and generally can grant most requests without a long wait. Their "wait lists" are first come/first serve and on the "hot" models they require deposits to discourage people who aren't serious. That said the one list that is currently closed is for the Daytona-C, he said it's around 70 and they hope to fill those in around 3 years time.
Anyway, I'm glad to be back in the Rolex family after an almost seven year absence, and happy to have someone I've known for 20+ years still in the game.

[Ruud Van Driver]

One of the most sensible “my AD said.....” posts I’ve seen on here

[kauffee]

Since this is a simple, logical explanation that makes complete sense without any nefarious conspiracies... it obviously can't be true.

[watchwatcher]

Seems plausible enough.

I wonder why our demand went up so much this year?

[yxc145]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

I know a groan is expected whenever someone brings up what their AD told them but I had a refreshing conversation last night that bears repeating.
I have known my friend at the Houston Boutique since I bought my first watch from him in 1997 at the newly opened local Tourneau. Since then he's worked at three other local Rolex jewellers and has been at the Boutique since it opened.
I called him two weeks ago and was surprised to find they had a BLNR in stock and bought it straight from its shipping coffin that night. Yesterday I went back just to chat and of course the subject of SS sport model shortages came up. His take was much less conspiratorial that what is usually said here. He simply said that Rolex projects their production needs several years out, a textbook business practice. The last few years have NOT been great for watch sales at least in the US, and they simply weren't ready for the increased demand this year. It will be remedied for next year he feels certain. He said their supply was pretty abundant until just the last couple of months, they were still getting some but much less. As a boutique they get the best supply, and generally can grant most requests without a long wait. Their "wait lists" are first come/first serve and on the "hot" models they require deposits to discourage people who aren't serious. That said the one list that is currently closed is for the Daytona-C, he said it's around 70 and they hope to fill those in around 3 years time.
Anyway, I'm glad to be back in the Rolex family after an almost seven year absence, and happy to have someone I've known for 20+ years still in the game.

70 in 3 years! that's 23 daytona a year. Some dealers only get one or two a year.

[Zedder]

Just getting interested in watches again, so forgive the ‘newbie’ question...what was the typical wait time for a SS Daytona before the Ceramic change? Also, what was the typical Grey Market premium then?

[yxc145]

Originally Posted by Zedder

Just getting interested in watches again, so forgive the ‘newbie’ question...what was the typical wait time for a SS Daytona before the Ceramic change? Also, what was the typical Grey Market premium then?

depends on the dealer, the country, region. I have heard something as crazy as 10 years. My go to dealer thinks he can get me one by the end of next year and I am 3rd on his list.

[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by Zedder

Just getting interested in watches again, so forgive the ‘newbie’ question...what was the typical wait time for a SS Daytona before the Ceramic change? Also, what was the typical Grey Market premium then?

In the waning years of the previous model 116520, I believe the price $12400 (same as the ceramic) had finally reached a point that discouraged flippers. Still relatively limited but you probably could have sourced one from an AD within a year in most places. Used prices were less than retail. The ceramic update supercharged demand again and has also driven the value of the 116520 up again. I had the pleasure of one 16520 and 2 116520's in the past. Always came out ahead when I sold them and actually used them rather than just flip them. I wouldn't mind having a ceramic but only at MSRP.

[ALF61]

I agree. No nonsense AD view. I feel that this forum´s views are from certain select areas and don´t necessarily reflect worldwide supply. Too much hype and rolex knows it and the reason they don´t prop up production. When a company limits production is because they are convinced that they would start to build up inventory very quickly.

[tng11]

Originally Posted by watchwatcher

Seems plausible enough.

I wonder why our demand went up so much this year?

Bubbly equity and real estate markets, IMO.

[smallcollector]

Originally Posted by tng11

Bubbly equity and real estate markets, IMO.

agreed . .new all time highs daily , and 0 volatility

[The Libertine]

I’m sure that in some way, some how, Rolex “business model” played a role.

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

I know a groan is expected whenever someone brings up what their AD told them but I had a refreshing conversation last night that bears repeating.
I have known my friend at the Houston Boutique since I bought my first watch from him in 1997 at the newly opened local Tourneau. Since then he's worked at three other local Rolex jewellers and has been at the Boutique since it opened.
I called him two weeks ago and was surprised to find they had a BLNR in stock and bought it straight from its shipping coffin that night. Yesterday I went back just to chat and of course the subject of SS sport model shortages came up. His take was much less conspiratorial that what is usually said here. He simply said that Rolex projects their production needs several years out, a textbook business practice. The last few years have NOT been great for watch sales at least in the US, and they simply weren't ready for the increased demand this year. It will be remedied for next year he feels certain. He said their supply was pretty abundant until just the last couple of months, they were still getting some but much less. As a boutique they get the best supply, and generally can grant most requests without a long wait. Their "wait lists" are first come/first serve and on the "hot" models they require deposits to discourage people who aren't serious. That said the one list that is currently closed is for the Daytona-C, he said it's around 70 and they hope to fill those in around 3 years time.
Anyway, I'm glad to be back in the Rolex family after an almost seven year absence, and happy to have someone I've known for 20+ years still in the game.

Pretty much exactly what I heard at a Rolex event last month. Makes perfect sense. Rolex just didn't plan for the sales they've had this year (and worsened in the UK with the weak £)

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=571648

[Xerxes77]

Originally Posted by yxc145

70 in 3 years! that's 23 daytona a year. Some dealers only get one or two a year.

Maybe they receive more but put on the grey market!

[amh]

Gray dealers benefit the most

[Watchgeek5000]

This is what I heard as well. I feel bad for those who are paying thousands above retail on LV's and BLNR's. I truly believe in a few months things will be back to normal price.

[Patton250]

Makes sense.

[superdog]

This was recently stated here via another thread.

Agree that it makes the most sense.

[Zedder]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

In the waning years of the previous model 116520, I believe the price $12400 (same as the ceramic) had finally reached a point that discouraged flippers. Still relatively limited but you probably could have sourced one from an AD within a year in most places. Used prices were less than retail. The ceramic update supercharged demand again and has also driven the value of the 116520 up again. I had the pleasure of one 16520 and 2 116520's in the past. Always came out ahead when I sold them and actually used them rather than just flip them. I wouldn't mind having a ceramic but only at MSRP.

Thanks!

[Wobbly]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

I called him two weeks ago and was surprised to find they had a BLNR in stock and bought it straight from its shipping coffin that night.

How come I never get this lucky, all I get is 2-3 year wait 😢

[Dusko.Popov]

I’d be interested to know, then, why some ads haven’t received a 116610lv in 6-8 months. I know this for a fact that at a handful of ads that I have a good relationship with, they haven’t received one since the spring (March and May respectively). Doesn’t prove or disprove what you’re saying. It’s just an interesting data point.

[GradyPhilpott]

That sounds like an honest enough answer from someone who is more likely to be honest than some salesman whom you've just met.

Besides that, it makes sense.

I doubt that anyone, including Rolex, predicted that the Dow would be anywhere near where it is right now, which is probably why Rolex sales are higher than expected.

[GB-man]

Absolutely my AD said the same and that I could have whatever I want at a small discount come 1Q 2018 (no Daytona discount lol).

[The Argonaut]

A really solid update. Sometimes reading this forum and the conspiratorial motives attributed to Rolex, I think there's lots of "nature abhors a vacuum" posts. In other words, no-one knows, so everyone just guesses. This makes complete sense, and is damn refreshing.

[Godfather111]

Yup I've heard the same thing from my dealer in HK.

It's the grey market dealers who are saying the sky is falling, wanting to create a false sense of urgency.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by GradyPhilpott

That sounds like an honest enough answer from someone who is more likely to be honest than some salesman whom you've just met.

Besides that, it makes sense.

I doubt that anyone, including Rolex, predicted that the Dow would be anywhere near where it is right now, which is probably why Rolex sales are higher than expected.

Yes. The economy is going ballistic. It’s going to get harder to get nice things for the foreseeable future.

[DocHolliday]

I have no doubt that your friend is being completely honest. He sounds entirely genuine, but it also sounds like a rehearsed response that all of the ADs have been fed. I fully believe that Rolex plans their production volume well in advance, but to think they have no way of ramping up production throughout the year is hard to believe. We aren’t talking about a mom and pop shop, this is a worldwide powerhouse brand with the means to pretty much do anything they want. I think we are underestimating them with that simplistic explanation. I don’t think there is a large conspiracy at play, but I’m sure this fortuitous market somehow complements their plans for next year. Maybe they just want to create more hype surrounding the brand. Who knows for sure, but it just seems too easy to say that demand exceeded production when we are dealing with an entity like Rolex.


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[oldman2005]

"He simply said that Rolex projects their production needs several years out, a textbook business practice. The last few years have NOT been great for watch sales at least in the US, and they simply weren't ready for the increased demand this year"

I think this makes sense, we knows that Rolex and swiss watch industry has been slowing down drastically for the several years. And maybe this year, there was an uptick in sale. I don't work for Rolex but the model for most company is they forecast their, plan their production and manufacture the amount of goods accordingly , maybe Rolex SS sale has exceeded their forecast significantly that caused a short term shortage. Even Rolex is a vertical company, they just could not adjust it quickly just like you plan you xmas dinner for 10 guests but now you have 20 guests show up...you just can't go to your backyard and get the extra turkey :)

[Seanken]

Originally Posted by DocHolliday

I have no doubt that your friend is being completely honest. He sounds entirely genuine, but it also sounds like a rehearsed response that all of the ADs have been fed. I fully believe that Rolex plans their production volume well in advance, but to think they have no way of ramping up production throughout the year is hard to believe. We aren’t talking about a mom and pop shop, this is a worldwide powerhouse brand with the means to pretty much do anything they want. I think we are underestimating them with that simplistic explanation. I don’t think there is a large conspiracy at play, but I’m sure this fortuitous market somehow complements their plans for next year. Maybe they just want to create more hype surrounding the brand. Who knows for sure, but it just seems too easy to say that demand exceeded production when we are dealing with an entity like Rolex.


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Politely: this isn't making Mr Coffee machines. I believe I've read that Rolex uses as much automation as it can and still produce quality watches, but quire a number of the operations need a trained human. It's hard to ramp up production numbers when you need to hire and train humans to do so.

Also, there seems to be competing theories, conspiracy theories? 1 rolex hates grey market. If so then hire and train and produce massive numbers. 2 rolex loves grey market as it helps sell less desireable watches. I'm sure the truth is in the middle.

[The Argonaut]

The short answer is, yes, Rolex plan and manufacture years ahead like most companies. However, unlike most companies, whilst they can adjust within a given percentage to increase sales, they don’t have to. This forum is a testament to the power of the brand, and that many will wait years for a Daytona, pay over the odds for a limited piece, or pay huge amounts for a vintage piece. Rolex has no equal. There’s no other watch manufacturer that can achieve these outcomes. Not one.


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