The Rolex Forums   The Rolex Watch

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX


Go Back   Rolex Forums - Rolex Watch Forum > Rolex & Tudor Watch Topics > Rolex General Discussion

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 23 March 2020, 10:43 PM   #271
spoon-turbo
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Real Name: Paul
Location: Asia
Watch: PP
Posts: 310
^ deaths globally are increasing indeed as per this link:

https://ncov2019.live/

Three days ago, that number was only in the 11,000. Now it is already 15,000+
spoon-turbo is offline  
Old 23 March 2020, 11:22 PM   #272
WatchNutcase
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Real Name: Matt
Location: UK / EU & Canada
Watch: Sub 114060
Posts: 1,350
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnorpheus View Post
What? This virus is still not killing many people globally, and certainly not on the hour. The numbers just aren't there. Now we need to minimize the spread for sure, but this is just objectively not true. All hope is not yet lost. 2020 is not yet lost. The truth is we just don't know what will happen going forward, but evidence suggest the virus can be mitigated going forward with compliance with distancing recommendations.
Sorry to be off the watch topic, but what do you mean? The virus is killing thousands of people at an exponential rate. Have you not been following the stats?

The only evidence we have that this can be controlled is with the strict Chinese regime, but these measures cannot be replicated in the USA.

Sorry but it's frightening hearing this from someone in a country about to be severely hit by this virus. Please stay safe!
WatchNutcase is offline  
Old 23 March 2020, 11:28 PM   #273
Goonthree
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: FL
Posts: 323
Age 0 to 50, your chance is higher dying in an automobile than contracting the virus then die. I dont see people giving up their cars and start walking
Goonthree is offline  
Old 23 March 2020, 11:36 PM   #274
alphadweller
"TRF" Member
 
alphadweller's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2019
Real Name: Vic
Location: Spain
Watch: SD43
Posts: 5,843
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goonthree View Post
Age 0 to 50, your chance is higher dying in an automobile than contracting the virus then die. I dont see people giving up their cars and start walking
You don't have hundreds of people injured from car accidents turning up at one given hospital in 2.weeks time, some collapsing ICUs and requiring isolation, others sent home but overwhelming ERs nonetheless.

Multiply this by the number of hospitals. Huge logistical problem. Some won't be given assistance, priority goes to those with better chance of survival like in wartime... No masks, no respirators.

Wake up.
alphadweller is offline  
Old 23 March 2020, 11:42 PM   #275
johnorpheus
"TRF" Member
 
johnorpheus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Washington D.C.
Watch: all of them
Posts: 1,259
Quote:
Originally Posted by WatchNutcase View Post
Sorry to be off the watch topic, but what do you mean? The virus is killing thousands of people at an exponential rate. Have you not been following the stats?

The only evidence we have that this can be controlled is with the strict Chinese regime, but these measures cannot be replicated in the USA.

Sorry but it's frightening hearing this from someone in a country about to be severely hit by this virus. Please stay safe!
It's not. This is not accurate. Look, I'm staying inside and only going out to walk the the dog and hit the grocery store like everyone else, but your assertions aren't factual. It's killed roughly 15k GLOBALLY and far less in the U.S. If you have been following the news and stats, what the US is concerned about is overwhelming the hospital system with people exhibiting systems and taking away resources from people who truly need it. The massive death projections were based on no social distancing measures.

You can be safe and adhere to guidelines without losing your mind.
johnorpheus is offline  
Old 23 March 2020, 11:42 PM   #276
Goonthree
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: FL
Posts: 323
Statistic is statistic. This is based on wuhan death rate. So if someone died because not enough ICU it is part of the stats. Over 80% dont even need to go to hospital and wuhan population most people have bad lungs and smokers. Heart disease kill a crap more than this virus, but it is ok because people like to eat and not excercise.


Quote:
Originally Posted by alphadweller View Post
You don't have tens of people injured from car accidents turning up at one given hospital in 2.weeks time, collapsing ICUs and requiring isolation. Multiply this by the number of hospitals. Huge logistical problem. Some won't be given assistance, priority goes to those with better chance of survival. You've passed that age, you're screwed. No masks, no respirators.

Wake up.
Goonthree is offline  
Old 23 March 2020, 11:48 PM   #277
hamachikanashiro
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: HK
Posts: 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goonthree View Post
Age 0 to 50, your chance is higher dying in an automobile than contracting the virus then die. I dont see people giving up their cars and start walking
fallacy.

multiplicative risks are not equal to additive risks

the probabillity of someone dying from automobile accident is fairly constant, or the probability that this goes to 5x next year is pretty low.

same cannot be said for coronavirus.

apparently the former is subject to the chernoff bound.

or as taleb says "naive empiricism" or "dont be an intellectual yet idiot"
hamachikanashiro is offline  
Old 23 March 2020, 11:51 PM   #278
dmash
"TRF" Member
 
dmash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goonthree View Post
Statistic is statistic. This is based on wuhan death rate. So if someone died because not enough ICU it is part of the stats. Over 80% dont even need to go to hospital and wuhan population most people have bad lungs and smokers. Heart disease kill a crap more than this virus, but it is ok because people like to eat and not excercise.
Speaking of statistics, you seem to have a hard time comprehending the difference between different risk. I would argue with you but I see it would be a waste of time.

So I’ll just simply say: this nonchalant attitude is part of the problem that still exists in the west. Sleep well knowing it could potentially lead to the death of another human being. It’s not exaggerating it’s the truth.

I honestly can’t believe there’s people walking around comparing car accidents to a respiratory virus that is growing exponentially, really?
dmash is offline  
Old 23 March 2020, 11:54 PM   #279
Sandpit
"TRF" Member
 
Sandpit's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Middle East
Posts: 1,807
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goonthree View Post
Statistic is statistic. This is based on wuhan death rate. So if someone died because not enough ICU it is part of the stats. Over 80% dont even need to go to hospital and wuhan population most people have bad lungs and smokers. Heart disease kill a crap more than this virus, but it is ok because people like to eat and not excercise.
You simply don’t get it. If 1 million Americans get infected that means (using your maths) 200k may need critical care. The beds will be full, ventilators at max capacity, nursing staff shortages etc. You will end up like Italy having to decide whether or not to intubate a person purely based on their age.

This is all about the healthcare system being able to treat an unprecedented amount of patients. Comparing death rates and stats to anything else is just completely pointless. The modern world has never seen anything like this.
Sandpit is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 12:30 AM   #280
WatchNutcase
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Real Name: Matt
Location: UK / EU & Canada
Watch: Sub 114060
Posts: 1,350
It's quite saddening to see people not grasping the severity of this issue and downplaying it. Do you guys not see what is happening in Europe right now? Maybe the American news channels don't show it, I'm not sure.

Anyways, I will be checking out of this thread now since we are off topic.

Good luck to all and stay safe during this Corona issue. Let's check back in a few months and see how this has affected Rolex supply and prices. Cheers
WatchNutcase is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 01:09 AM   #281
tuffode
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: NJ
Watch: Speedmaster Racing
Posts: 20
Anyone have any thoughts about what they think is going to happen to vintage Sub and GMT prices?
tuffode is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 01:11 AM   #282
Hollie_Rollie
2024 Pledge Member
 
Hollie_Rollie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: U.S.A.
Watch: SD43
Posts: 3,044
SS Sports Models Coming back to MSRP

Quote:
Originally Posted by tuffode View Post
Anyone have any thoughts about what they think is going to happen to vintage Sub and GMT prices?

I think they’ll hold pretty steady. They may dip slightly just because everything is taking a dip. But what is saving the vintage market is they aren’t in production any more. There’s only a set amount available and that’s that.

The 6 digit in production references are going to see a huge correction. Those are the ones I’d be worried about if I was sitting on a a huge inventory of Pepsis and Hulks.
Hollie_Rollie is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 01:26 AM   #283
dmash
"TRF" Member
 
dmash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie View Post
I think they’ll hold pretty steady. They may dip slightly just because everything is taking a dip. But what is saving the vintage market is they aren’t in production any more. There’s only a set amount available and that’s that.

The 6 digit in production references are going to see a huge correction. Those are the ones I’d be worried about if I was sitting on a a huge inventory of Pepsis and Hulks.
If by vintage he means ‘real vintage’ I agree. These absurd 5 digit Pepsi prices will plummet too. They only shot up when the other stuff did.
dmash is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 01:40 AM   #284
daOnlyBG
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Odorious Onion
Watch: yes, it's hipster
Posts: 1,567
Quote:
Originally Posted by WatchNutcase View Post
The only evidence we have that this can be controlled is with the strict Chinese regime, but these measures cannot be replicated in the USA.
Oh, if you only knew.

The United States has been able to get away with a lot in the name of public health, for better or for worse (so far, it's been for the better). Though the government hasn't really flexed its legal muscle yet (most likely due to a polarized election year), it certainly has the ability to go harder on its people than it does now.

As for the original topic of this thread: in one of the closed dealer groups I lurk in, BLROs are in the $16K range, up $1K from before the lockdown.
__________________
Here come dat boi Jerry
daOnlyBG is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 02:10 AM   #285
tuffode
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: NJ
Watch: Speedmaster Racing
Posts: 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie View Post
I think they’ll hold pretty steady. They may dip slightly just because everything is taking a dip. But what is saving the vintage market is they aren’t in production any more. There’s only a set amount available and that’s that.

The 6 digit in production references are going to see a huge correction. Those are the ones I’d be worried about if I was sitting on a a huge inventory of Pepsis and Hulks.
Ah, I see. Been looking to get my first Rolex for a while now, if I can get a new Pepsi at MSRP sometime this year I will do so. Other wise I will probably end up going with a 1675 or 16750.
tuffode is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 02:25 AM   #286
garyk
2024 Pledge Member
 
garyk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Real Name: Gary
Location: USA
Watch: Daytona
Posts: 11,001
Quote:
Originally Posted by daOnlyBG View Post
Oh, if you only knew.

As for the original topic of this thread: in one of the closed dealer groups I lurk in, BLROs are in the $16K range, up $1K from before the lockdown.
Haha, of course it is! So many professional speculators on here...

__________________
garyk is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 02:39 AM   #287
alphadweller
"TRF" Member
 
alphadweller's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2019
Real Name: Vic
Location: Spain
Watch: SD43
Posts: 5,843
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goonthree View Post
Statistic is statistic. This is based on wuhan death rate. So if someone died because not enough ICU it is part of the stats. Over 80% dont even need to go to hospital and wuhan population most people have bad lungs and smokers. Heart disease kill a crap more than this virus, but it is ok because people like to eat and not excercise.
The problem is the number of people in automobiles does not grow exponentitially whereas those suffering from covid-19 do. So if we don't contain it and we're above the capacity offered by hospitals and healthcare profesionals, the absolute number of deaths due to covid-19 will be much higher than car crash fatalities even to those aged 0-50, no matter how small the theoretical death rate is.

Remember, hospitals are swamped, no ventilators, no masks, no beds, health professionals getting infected and falling sick.
alphadweller is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 03:11 AM   #288
GONZO2LR
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Real Name: Luis
Location: Texas
Watch: SS Submariner Date
Posts: 1,371
The world as we it is about to change...

for better or worse

only TIME will tell......
GONZO2LR is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 03:41 AM   #289
mic6
"TRF" Member
 
mic6's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Europe
Watch: 116718 green
Posts: 1,943
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nav01L View Post
Nah, not the same class or quality
I didn't say Rolex will become Patek. I said Rolex is heading to Patek prices.
__________________
mic6 is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 04:37 AM   #290
gtnator
2024 Pledge Member
 
gtnator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: USA
Watch: DSSD, SD43, Pepsi,
Posts: 2,062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jona View Post
OP, I think your doom and gloom forecast is not supported by the facts. I don't place any credibility on your predictions. BTW the economy is not "halted."
Really? I wonder how many Rolexes are flying off the shelves in Italy, China, both large markets. The pandemic is just starting in the US, turn on the tv.
gtnator is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 04:45 AM   #291
Tavli3
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Real Name: Jim
Location: miami
Watch: GMT II 16760
Posts: 1,674
Quote:
Originally Posted by spoon-turbo View Post
^ deaths globally are increasing indeed as per this link:

https://ncov2019.live/

Three days ago, that number was only in the 11,000. Now it is already 15,000+
General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned Monday.

The virus is accelerating.

"It took 67 days from the first reported case to reach the first 100,000 cases. Eleven days for the second 100,000 and just four days for the third 100,000," he said.
Tavli3 is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 04:57 AM   #292
BaselWorld
"TRF" Member
 
BaselWorld's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Jupiter, FL
Posts: 111
With the as ever strong CHF, I see Rolex (retail) prices only go up; a lot of larger currencies lost 20 % + in this year alone against the Swissie.
BaselWorld is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 04:59 AM   #293
braddmlewis
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Virginia
Posts: 73
I seriously think that if things don’t improve in 30-45 days the last problem ANYONE is going to care about is the price of SS Rolex.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
braddmlewis is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 05:52 AM   #294
francoamerican
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: bay area
Posts: 571
Quote:
Originally Posted by BaselWorld View Post
With the as ever strong CHF, I see Rolex (retail) prices only go up; a lot of larger currencies lost 20 % + in this year alone against the Swissie.
The usd just rose against the chf like 6% in two weeks
francoamerican is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 06:10 AM   #295
SlideRacker
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: Orange County, CA
Watch: 116500LN Black
Posts: 559
War, epidemics, and natural disasters are just a part of life and if Rolex prices dropping upsets you, a “perspective” adjustment might be a good idea.
SlideRacker is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 06:17 AM   #296
Mystro
2024 Pledge Member
 
Mystro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Real Name: The Mystro ;)
Location: Central Pa.
Posts: 14,622
As a picture or report of the reality of life now of “Flyover country”. Life is almost completely unchanged despite what the media is painting.

We live rural on a large property in a rural area. Other than county buildings closed and the kids off school, you would never know anything is even going on. Daily living is almost completely unaffected. Livestock gets fed, fields get prepared for planting, etc.. Social distancing is/was a everyday part of life so you would literally have to go into town to commingle. USPS, UPS, Fed Ex is running on schedule. Hardware, gas stations, Big-box stores are open. Grocery stores are open and supplied very well. No one is hoarding or losing their minds as these salt of the earth people seem to have a better bead on the larger picture. These are self reliant people to the point we have backup generators and a large pantry supply of food. (Snowstorms can knock power out for a week). They are also thrifty and conservative with their finances. Large populations of panicking people are far more dangerous. Sometimes it might be better for some to leave the TV/New off for a few days as it tends to consume those that have a low risk threshold.

Since some are off work, we have had a overwhelming support system though our church to deliver food and groceries to our elderly and meals to the kids off school that we had to turn away volunteers.

Patience builds character. This too shall pass.
Mystro is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 06:37 AM   #297
jrs146
"TRF" Member
 
jrs146's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Real Name: Josh
Location: Lost in time
Watch: Me Nae Nae
Posts: 9,821
Why wouldn’t watch prices come down? Everything else is.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
__________________
"Sometimes the songs that we hear are just songs of our own."
-Jerome J. Garcia, Robert C. Hunter
jrs146 is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 06:47 AM   #298
lmcgbaj
"TRF" Member
 
lmcgbaj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Real Name: G
Location: Canada
Watch: es are FUN!!!
Posts: 1,979
Quote:
Originally Posted by CKizzy View Post
I hope your predictions come true...would love to buy at or below MSRP ;)
Careful what you wish for. It comes with a package.
__________________
"Do not take life too seriously. You will never get out of it alive. "
lmcgbaj is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 06:49 AM   #299
Art 1
Banned
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Florida, Canada
Watch: Rol/Seik/Tud/Omega
Posts: 30,244
Quote:
Originally Posted by lmcgbaj View Post
Careful what you wish for. It comes with a package.
Very true.
Art 1 is offline  
Old 24 March 2020, 10:51 AM   #300
sgwatchguy
"TRF" Member
 
sgwatchguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Real Name: KP Jimmy
Location: Singapore
Watch: R/AP/FPJ/Hermès/et
Posts: 6,597
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mystro View Post
Large populations of panicking people are far more dangerous. Sometimes it might be better for some to leave the TV/New off for a few days as it tends to consume those that have a low risk threshold.
Those are golden words, I wish people would listen.

I see people consumed by the news when it’s so often competing opinions and narratives, and they’re addicted. Causes nothing but cycles of angst.

If you’re plugged into your local community, and aware of facts you need to know from reliable sources, just please unplug the media which thrives on the negative.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
__________________
sgwatchguy is offline  
Closed Thread

Tags
pandemic , rolex


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Takuya Watches

Bobs Watches

Asset Appeal

My Watch LLC

OCWatches

DavidSW Watches

Coronet


*Banners Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.





Copyright ©2004-2024, The Rolex Forums. All Rights Reserved.

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Rolex is a registered trademark of ROLEX USA. The Rolex Forums is not affiliated with ROLEX USA in any way.