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21 March 2020, 02:28 AM | #61 |
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Seems possible, the doom and gloom and prices for everything correcting including watches. The economy was never made to have productivity drop to nearly zero for x weeks at a time.
If you’re a small business, you’re probably letting people go to meet working capital needs because your topline has halved. If you’re in corporate, you’re probably worried about keeping your job because the company’s top line has halved. So even if you’re handsomely paid, why would you buy a watch when you have no idea how long this will last and how long it’ll effect the economy. The last decade of graduates have no idea what a recession looks and feels like. Even in a recession or depression there is still demand for ancillary products in a economy (dining out, retail spend, travel). With everyone shut in and unable to do anything outside their house, the drop off will be huge. If you had to allocate your capital between stocks at a massive discount vs watches, the answer is obvious. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
21 March 2020, 02:28 AM | #62 |
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I can see Subs coming back to retail, but not Daytona/SkyDweller
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21 March 2020, 02:30 AM | #63 |
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Some are really sensitive to any doom and gloom talk but have no issue overly optimistic view points. I would say the optimistic views are much more dangerous if that puts people at ease.
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21 March 2020, 02:39 AM | #64 |
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21 March 2020, 02:45 AM | #65 | |
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This is a lot of wishful thinking. The super desirable models will remain desirable, whether their prices dip or not, and the more mainstream Sub/Explorers etc. will probably re-stabilize in price and demand/supply. |
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21 March 2020, 02:47 AM | #66 | |
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Guys who paid 2x for a Rolex as an investment are going to be in some major pain. The pain of FOMO is absolutely real. LOL |
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21 March 2020, 02:48 AM | #67 |
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21 March 2020, 02:53 AM | #68 |
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Rolex production has stopped, China is pretty much back on its feet after a few months of inactivity, things might not change at all.
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21 March 2020, 02:54 AM | #69 |
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While I do think we're going to see some changes in street pricing, I'm skeptical about any advice from someone who wasn't able to notice the ten other threads saying the same thing.
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21 March 2020, 02:56 AM | #70 |
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I'm going out on a limb and thinking a lot of the people in this thread bought over retail and just plugging their ears with their fingers saying Rolex will always stay above retail. If Rolex are set to drop, this whole situation is going to be the time.
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21 March 2020, 03:00 AM | #71 | |
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And this is not meant to give you any advice, so please don't take any advice from this. |
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21 March 2020, 03:01 AM | #72 |
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This is 100% the case for the majority who have responded quite angrily and/or aggressively.
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21 March 2020, 03:14 AM | #73 |
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21 March 2020, 03:22 AM | #74 | ||
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Quote:
The consumer discretionary sector has been largely crushed as has the entertainment, restaurant, professional and collegiate sports industries, university education business, travel and tourism industries, live venue industry and commercial real estate sectors. This is at the very least a setback that is real and will be impactful for some time to come. There is no fun in any of this and we need to do our best to help most small businesses recover, including purchasing locally when we can for some time. There will be a time when global trade recovers, but that seems to be a long way off still. Losing so much of retirement savings/investments for those in retirement age/distribution phase will be downright devastating without those having sufficient time to catch the recovery. Even the very wealthy will have issues much more important than purchasing Rolex watches. I hope all affected will have a speedy economic recovery as well health, bc if not it could also be very tough on those living pay check to pay check and having to pay rent or mortgages. One fact is that this has been the quickest equity downturn in history. 2nd quickest was Great Recession and 3rd was Black Monday 1987 We also didn't have the mass proliferation of passive ETFs in any of these other downturns, that complicate intrinsic price discovery of individual securities. The above is just my opinion, but I do think there are plenty of facts to support that unfortunately many will have a tough economic time for some time to come. |
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21 March 2020, 03:23 AM | #75 | |
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That is just as ridiculous as the ones claiming that people who wish for MSRP back, just can’t afford to pay the gray prices. Geez! |
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21 March 2020, 03:28 AM | #76 |
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OP, with all due respect your theory/prediction only addresses the demand side of the equation. As you know, supply has adjusted with Rolex literally shutting down production. So what we have now is sharply reduced demand and ZERO supply. I don’t see that as a recipe for prices cratering.
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21 March 2020, 03:34 AM | #77 | |
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Meanwhile we have a looming recession with decreased purchasing power, especially for luxury items. Of course anything we say now is all speculation and we'll have to wait and see. |
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21 March 2020, 03:37 AM | #78 |
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You just never know, but that is one possible outcome as Rolex looks to adjust to the new market. One is to cut production and up MSRPs in an effort to continue to move up the exclusivity chain as total quantity of luxury watches purchased more than likely decreases. Lower quantity sold --> higher margin = maintained overall earnings if done properly. Rolex imo has already upped the MSRP of their PM models significantly. I don't think it's too far fetched to see SS and TT move up considerably as well.
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21 March 2020, 03:37 AM | #79 |
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Agree with you 100%
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21 March 2020, 03:38 AM | #80 | |
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Quote:
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21 March 2020, 03:46 AM | #81 |
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Rolex will have already contacted all their top selling AD's around the globe and will shift inventory to markets that continue sales operations. AD's without cash reserve may make frantic calls to sell pieces today but this will stop as inventory reaches a bottom. Once inventory bottoms , Rolex will start production slowly. Shipments will arrive to top selling AD's who will give top customers first chance to buy. Maybe more pieces in the showcase, but don't expect sales. My.02.
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21 March 2020, 03:51 AM | #82 |
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Did you seriously just claim China is back on its feet? Have you looked at a single number or actually witnessed what’s happening there firsthand?
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21 March 2020, 03:53 AM | #83 |
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And to all those who wished for a major recession just so they could get a SS model, THIS is what a recession looks like and it’s not pretty. Watch what you wish for.
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21 March 2020, 03:55 AM | #84 |
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The uncertainty of the how many people contract the virus is scary. If the predicted half of Californians get it then we in for a rough ride and most certainly the stainless buzz will cool down. Already it's difficult to think about how many people are unemployed. Please be smart about staying healthy everyone.
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21 March 2020, 03:55 AM | #85 |
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Isn’t even close. This is the beginning, people have on their blinders acting like everything is okay.
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21 March 2020, 04:22 AM | #86 |
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Swiss watches in general have been getting exponentially more expensive over the last 10 to 20 years. I purchased my first SS Rolex Sea-Dweller in 2000 for $3600. I have wondered when this non-sense would stabilize. Asian markets have been hit hard. Swiss exports are down meaning worldwide demand is down. With all the economic uncertainty, prices have to stabilize but likely will decline. I don't think this forum is representative of the luxury watch market place. Normal buyers will not prioritize watches over other essentials, especially if they are over-extended in real estate, vehicles, etc. I agree with your prediction that the most sought after watch prices will soften and become easier to obtain until the world economy decides what it wants to do during and following this pandemic.
Unfortunately, I think the pre-owned market will also see an influx of these sought after watches as individuals are forced to liquidate due to financial hardship (i.e. job loss, reduced income, etc.). |
21 March 2020, 04:46 AM | #87 | |
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I won't be surprised if they bounce back quite quickly. That's simply how their system is built and culturally speaking they don't necessarily dwell on what has happened past. The might turn their attention to opportunities. You'll see the greatest impact from their influence on our shores with the number of travelers or investments in our market slow down until we recover. |
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21 March 2020, 04:47 AM | #88 |
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This is my view on whether watch prices go up, down or do next to nothing.
Car production is virtually stopped across the globe as demand plummets, it is quite possible that watch production will cease at some point in the not too distant future along with other luxury items. If this happens then until production gets back to normal the price of watches that are available on grey markets could well rise if there is demand for them. However my belief is that in the short term most people are going to be focused on their health and not watches, but some may think that it is an opportunity to grab a bargain if one exists. Long term I think that we will look at the world in a different way as this virus is going to change a lot of perceptions on what is important.
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21 March 2020, 05:01 AM | #89 | |
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The question is, why would you do something that you know is both massively redundant and in poor taste? I've got to assume you're either very starved for attention or just so self-important that you think this prediction means more coming from you. Neither reflects especially well on you. People who want to actually discuss something do it in the existing discussion threads on the same topic. |
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21 March 2020, 05:12 AM | #90 |
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pandemic , rolex |
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