The Rolex Forums   The Rolex Watch

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX


Go Back   Rolex Forums - Rolex Watch Forum > Rolex & Tudor Watch Topics > Rolex General Discussion

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 21 March 2020, 02:28 AM   #61
Reign
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: USA
Posts: 1,177
Seems possible, the doom and gloom and prices for everything correcting including watches. The economy was never made to have productivity drop to nearly zero for x weeks at a time.

If you’re a small business, you’re probably letting people go to meet working capital needs because your topline has halved.

If you’re in corporate, you’re probably worried about keeping your job because the company’s top line has halved. So even if you’re handsomely paid, why would you buy a watch when you have no idea how long this will last and how long it’ll effect the economy.

The last decade of graduates have no idea what a recession looks and feels like. Even in a recession or depression there is still demand for ancillary products in a economy (dining out, retail spend, travel). With everyone shut in and unable to do anything outside their house, the drop off will be huge.

If you had to allocate your capital between stocks at a massive discount vs watches, the answer is obvious.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Reign is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 02:28 AM   #62
aurenas
"TRF" Member
 
aurenas's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: Toronto
Posts: 252
I can see Subs coming back to retail, but not Daytona/SkyDweller
__________________
Your only limit is YOU

Instagram watchauren
aurenas is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 02:30 AM   #63
Infusion1
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: North
Posts: 82
Some are really sensitive to any doom and gloom talk but have no issue overly optimistic view points. I would say the optimistic views are much more dangerous if that puts people at ease.
Infusion1 is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 02:39 AM   #64
WatchNutcase
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Real Name: Matt
Location: UK / EU & Canada
Watch: Sub 114060
Posts: 1,350
Quote:
Originally Posted by aurenas View Post
I can see Subs coming back to retail, but not Daytona/SkyDweller
Yes this makes sense. I can see subs coming back to retail and possible window displays, and Daytonas receiving a reduced wait time.
WatchNutcase is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 02:45 AM   #65
mykii
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: East
Watch: AP + PP + Rolex
Posts: 1,775
Quote:
Originally Posted by WatchNutcase View Post
Yes this makes sense. I can see subs coming back to retail and possible window displays, and Daytonas receiving a reduced wait time.
Daytona's never had a reduced waiting time.

This is a lot of wishful thinking. The super desirable models will remain desirable, whether their prices dip or not, and the more mainstream Sub/Explorers etc. will probably re-stabilize in price and demand/supply.
mykii is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 02:47 AM   #66
Michael V
Banned
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Chicago, IL
Watch: SD43
Posts: 178
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandpit View Post
Once people lose jobs (which they will), that $15 - $20k luxury piece on their wrists will get cashed in. And that’s going to happen by the hundreds, probably thousands. Mortgages need to be paid, car lease and debt payments need to be paid.

Watch this space. It’s going to get messy.
Should have seen the crypto market when people levered everything they had to buy bitcoin when it was at 18k....

Guys who paid 2x for a Rolex as an investment are going to be in some major pain.

The pain of FOMO is absolutely real. LOL
Michael V is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 02:48 AM   #67
WatchNutcase
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Real Name: Matt
Location: UK / EU & Canada
Watch: Sub 114060
Posts: 1,350
Quote:
Originally Posted by mykii View Post
Daytona's never had a reduced waiting time.
We've also never seen a pandemic of this magnitude. I think Daytona's with a reduced wait time is very realistic once half the people on waiting lists pull out because they've lost jobs etc.
WatchNutcase is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 02:53 AM   #68
scurfa
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Sunderland
Posts: 1,237
Rolex production has stopped, China is pretty much back on its feet after a few months of inactivity, things might not change at all.
__________________
Instagram @scurfawatches
scurfa is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 02:54 AM   #69
Likestheshiny
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Location: _
Posts: 1,877
While I do think we're going to see some changes in street pricing, I'm skeptical about any advice from someone who wasn't able to notice the ten other threads saying the same thing.
Likestheshiny is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 02:56 AM   #70
Undefeatable
"TRF" Member
 
Undefeatable's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Real Name: Kevin
Location: Irvine, CA
Watch: 124060
Posts: 491
I'm going out on a limb and thinking a lot of the people in this thread bought over retail and just plugging their ears with their fingers saying Rolex will always stay above retail. If Rolex are set to drop, this whole situation is going to be the time.
Undefeatable is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 03:00 AM   #71
WatchNutcase
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Real Name: Matt
Location: UK / EU & Canada
Watch: Sub 114060
Posts: 1,350
Quote:
Originally Posted by Likestheshiny View Post
While I do think we're going to see some changes in street pricing, I'm skeptical about any advice from someone who wasn't able to notice the ten other threads saying the same thing.
OP here, confirming I did notice the other 10 threads. Nothing illegal about starting my own!

And this is not meant to give you any advice, so please don't take any advice from this.
WatchNutcase is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 03:01 AM   #72
WatchNutcase
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Real Name: Matt
Location: UK / EU & Canada
Watch: Sub 114060
Posts: 1,350
Quote:
Originally Posted by Undefeatable View Post
I'm going out on a limb and thinking a lot of the people in this thread bought over retail and just plugging their ears with their fingers saying Rolex will always stay above retail. If Rolex are set to drop, this whole situation is going to be the time.
This is 100% the case for the majority who have responded quite angrily and/or aggressively.
WatchNutcase is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 03:14 AM   #73
Deppe
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Northern Europe
Posts: 154
Quote:
Originally Posted by WatchNutcase View Post
OP here, confirming I did notice the other 10 threads. Nothing illegal about starting my own!

And this is not meant to give you any advice, so please don't take any advice from this.
A lot of things is not illegal but still unnecessary.
Deppe is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 03:22 AM   #74
904VT
"TRF" Member
 
904VT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: USA
Watch: All Rolex
Posts: 6,971
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jona View Post
OP, I think your doom and gloom forecast is not supported by the facts. I don't place any credibility on your predictions. BTW the economy is not "halted."
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jona View Post
OP, so you feel your doom and gloom predictions are fun?

Ignore list...
Are you serious when you think the economy is still moving along and not stunted? Perhaps you're focusing on the technicality of halted, but I think you do understand the sentiment of being stunted.

The consumer discretionary sector has been largely crushed as has the entertainment, restaurant, professional and collegiate sports industries, university education business, travel and tourism industries, live venue industry and commercial real estate sectors. This is at the very least a setback that is real and will be impactful for some time to come. There is no fun in any of this and we need to do our best to help most small businesses recover, including purchasing locally when we can for some time. There will be a time when global trade recovers, but that seems to be a long way off still. Losing so much of retirement savings/investments for those in retirement age/distribution phase will be downright devastating without those having sufficient time to catch the recovery. Even the very wealthy will have issues much more important than purchasing Rolex watches. I hope all affected will have a speedy economic recovery as well health, bc if not it could also be very tough on those living pay check to pay check and having to pay rent or mortgages.

One fact is that this has been the quickest equity downturn in history. 2nd quickest was Great Recession and 3rd was Black Monday 1987

We also didn't have the mass proliferation of passive ETFs in any of these other downturns, that complicate intrinsic price discovery of individual securities. The above is just my opinion, but I do think there are plenty of facts to support that unfortunately many will have a tough economic time for some time to come.
904VT is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 03:23 AM   #75
Deppe
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Northern Europe
Posts: 154
Quote:
Originally Posted by WatchNutcase View Post
This is 100% the case for the majority who have responded quite angrily and/or aggressively.
Seriously? Is this the level? “If you think my prediction about the future is stupid, it must be because you bought a watch above MSRP”.

That is just as ridiculous as the ones claiming that people who wish for MSRP back, just can’t afford to pay the gray prices.

Geez!
Deppe is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 03:28 AM   #76
SlideRacker
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: Orange County, CA
Watch: 116500LN Black
Posts: 559
OP, with all due respect your theory/prediction only addresses the demand side of the equation. As you know, supply has adjusted with Rolex literally shutting down production. So what we have now is sharply reduced demand and ZERO supply. I don’t see that as a recipe for prices cratering.
SlideRacker is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 03:34 AM   #77
WatchNutcase
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Real Name: Matt
Location: UK / EU & Canada
Watch: Sub 114060
Posts: 1,350
Quote:
Originally Posted by SlideRacker View Post
OP, with all due respect your theory/prediction only addresses the demand side of the equation. As you know, supply has adjusted with Rolex literally shutting down production. So what we have now is sharply reduced demand and ZERO supply. I don’t see that as a recipe for prices cratering.
Rolex is a company that plans in advance, it's possible they already have production complete for the next year. We may only see the effect of their shutdown in 2021 if they don't make up for it.

Meanwhile we have a looming recession with decreased purchasing power, especially for luxury items.

Of course anything we say now is all speculation and we'll have to wait and see.
WatchNutcase is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 03:37 AM   #78
904VT
"TRF" Member
 
904VT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: USA
Watch: All Rolex
Posts: 6,971
Quote:
Originally Posted by mic6 View Post
The party has just started, Rolex is heading to Patek prices in the next few years. Just the humble opinion a passionate Rolex lover and collector since 1999.
You just never know, but that is one possible outcome as Rolex looks to adjust to the new market. One is to cut production and up MSRPs in an effort to continue to move up the exclusivity chain as total quantity of luxury watches purchased more than likely decreases. Lower quantity sold --> higher margin = maintained overall earnings if done properly. Rolex imo has already upped the MSRP of their PM models significantly. I don't think it's too far fetched to see SS and TT move up considerably as well.
904VT is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 03:37 AM   #79
danyvw
"TRF" Member
 
danyvw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: USA
Watch: Sub16610, DJ126331
Posts: 1,151
Quote:
Originally Posted by Undefeatable View Post
I'm going out on a limb and thinking a lot of the people in this thread bought over retail and just plugging their ears with their fingers saying Rolex will always stay above retail. If Rolex are set to drop, this whole situation is going to be the time.
Agree with you 100%
danyvw is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 03:38 AM   #80
904VT
"TRF" Member
 
904VT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: USA
Watch: All Rolex
Posts: 6,971
Quote:
Originally Posted by SlideRacker View Post
OP, with all due respect your theory/prediction only addresses the demand side of the equation. As you know, supply has adjusted with Rolex literally shutting down production. So what we have now is sharply reduced demand and ZERO supply. I don’t see that as a recipe for prices cratering.
That is very true about new supply, but it seems there is a large supply on the secondary market of many so called hot models. At least at the prices they are currently offered. I guess it will be interesting to see which effect has a greater impact.
904VT is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 03:46 AM   #81
Rado63
"TRF" Member
 
Rado63's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2017
Real Name: Alan
Location: Northern, CA
Watch: 116334
Posts: 2,215
Rolex will have already contacted all their top selling AD's around the globe and will shift inventory to markets that continue sales operations. AD's without cash reserve may make frantic calls to sell pieces today but this will stop as inventory reaches a bottom. Once inventory bottoms , Rolex will start production slowly. Shipments will arrive to top selling AD's who will give top customers first chance to buy. Maybe more pieces in the showcase, but don't expect sales. My.02.
__________________
Rolex 116334 126600 228235
Rado63 is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 03:51 AM   #82
dmash
"TRF" Member
 
dmash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
Quote:
Originally Posted by scurfa View Post
Rolex production has stopped, China is pretty much back on its feet after a few months of inactivity, things might not change at all.
Did you seriously just claim China is back on its feet? Have you looked at a single number or actually witnessed what’s happening there firsthand?
dmash is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 03:53 AM   #83
SlideRacker
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: Orange County, CA
Watch: 116500LN Black
Posts: 559
And to all those who wished for a major recession just so they could get a SS model, THIS is what a recession looks like and it’s not pretty. Watch what you wish for.
SlideRacker is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 03:55 AM   #84
snoride
"TRF" Member
 
snoride's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Hilton Head
Posts: 147
The uncertainty of the how many people contract the virus is scary. If the predicted half of Californians get it then we in for a rough ride and most certainly the stainless buzz will cool down. Already it's difficult to think about how many people are unemployed. Please be smart about staying healthy everyone.
snoride is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 03:55 AM   #85
dmash
"TRF" Member
 
dmash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
Quote:
Originally Posted by SlideRacker View Post
And to all those who wished for a major recession just so they could get a SS model, THIS is what a recession looks like and it’s not pretty. Watch what you wish for.
Isn’t even close. This is the beginning, people have on their blinders acting like everything is okay.
dmash is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 04:22 AM   #86
GRabens
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: FL
Watch: Too Many Rolex!
Posts: 574
Swiss watches in general have been getting exponentially more expensive over the last 10 to 20 years. I purchased my first SS Rolex Sea-Dweller in 2000 for $3600. I have wondered when this non-sense would stabilize. Asian markets have been hit hard. Swiss exports are down meaning worldwide demand is down. With all the economic uncertainty, prices have to stabilize but likely will decline. I don't think this forum is representative of the luxury watch market place. Normal buyers will not prioritize watches over other essentials, especially if they are over-extended in real estate, vehicles, etc. I agree with your prediction that the most sought after watch prices will soften and become easier to obtain until the world economy decides what it wants to do during and following this pandemic.

Unfortunately, I think the pre-owned market will also see an influx of these sought after watches as individuals are forced to liquidate due to financial hardship (i.e. job loss, reduced income, etc.).
GRabens is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 04:46 AM   #87
2nastie
"TRF" Member
 
2nastie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: YVR
Watch: Time Only
Posts: 2,332
Quote:
Originally Posted by dmash View Post
Did you seriously just claim China is back on its feet? Have you looked at a single number or actually witnessed what’s happening there firsthand?
They might not be back on their feet in Western standards but while they are currently still leading the pack with the number of cases, it accounts for an extremely small number of their population and on the working class or lower class level.

I won't be surprised if they bounce back quite quickly. That's simply how their system is built and culturally speaking they don't necessarily dwell on what has happened past. The might turn their attention to opportunities.

You'll see the greatest impact from their influence on our shores with the number of travelers or investments in our market slow down until we recover.
2nastie is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 04:47 AM   #88
Oxfordian
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Real Name: Martin
Location: England
Watch: 124060 Submariner
Posts: 2,871
This is my view on whether watch prices go up, down or do next to nothing.

Car production is virtually stopped across the globe as demand plummets, it is quite possible that watch production will cease at some point in the not too distant future along with other luxury items.

If this happens then until production gets back to normal the price of watches that are available on grey markets could well rise if there is demand for them. However my belief is that in the short term most people are going to be focused on their health and not watches, but some may think that it is an opportunity to grab a bargain if one exists.

Long term I think that we will look at the world in a different way as this virus is going to change a lot of perceptions on what is important.
__________________
Martin

Small Rolex, Omega, Seiko and Oris Collection
Oxfordian is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 05:01 AM   #89
Likestheshiny
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Location: _
Posts: 1,877
Quote:
OP here, confirming I did notice the other 10 threads. Nothing illegal about starting my own!
This is an internet webforum. Everything here is legal except kiddie porn and threats of harm.

The question is, why would you do something that you know is both massively redundant and in poor taste? I've got to assume you're either very starved for attention or just so self-important that you think this prediction means more coming from you. Neither reflects especially well on you.

People who want to actually discuss something do it in the existing discussion threads on the same topic.
Likestheshiny is offline  
Old 21 March 2020, 05:12 AM   #90
Speedbird-1
"TRF" Member
 
Speedbird-1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Real Name: Steve.
Location: UK
Posts: 6,011
Quote:
Originally Posted by WatchNutcase View Post

Meanwhile we have a looming recession with decreased purchasing power, especially for luxury items.

Of course anything we say now is all speculation and we'll have to wait and see.
I am, in complete awe, of such wisdom.
Speedbird-1 is offline  
Closed Thread

Tags
pandemic , rolex


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Takuya Watches

Bobs Watches

My Watch LLC

OCWatches

DavidSW Watches

Coronet


*Banners Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.





Copyright ©2004-2024, The Rolex Forums. All Rights Reserved.

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Rolex is a registered trademark of ROLEX USA. The Rolex Forums is not affiliated with ROLEX USA in any way.