ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
23 June 2022, 04:42 AM | #31 | |
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Cheers, Joe
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23 June 2022, 04:57 AM | #32 |
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Personally, I have no idea what will happen to prices. I suggest that the only forecast which might be trusted is from those who in 2016 correctly projected that some watches would be worth 3 to 5 times their MSRP in a few years. And also forecast during the pandemic that prices would rise. Otherwise, just stand by and see what happens.
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23 June 2022, 08:26 AM | #33 |
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I think you gotta just keep trying to build a positive relationship with a boutique. No one knows what will happen in the future, but I personally believe almost everything is cyclical. I think a 16202 is doable in the next 5 years at retail if you have a relationship right now. Maybe I am just an optimist, but I will predict Jumbos under $50K in the next 5 years.
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23 June 2022, 09:19 AM | #34 | |
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At what point is it a lost cause? If after 2-3 years of playing the game and still not being allocated the piece you want (not some crazy piece but let's say a black 15500) is the writing on the wall and are you just wasting your time? |
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23 June 2022, 09:23 AM | #35 | |
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i think 3 years can officially be called a lost cause lol. it's hard to say how things will be because i feel like they'll try to keep bundles/purchase history in play for as long as they can |
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23 June 2022, 09:40 AM | #36 |
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considering the fact that MSRP on royal oaks has increased 40-50% in the last few years, I think you're only asking half the question...
it's not just whether they'll ever be available at MSRP, it's what MSRP will be if/when that happens... |
23 June 2022, 09:42 AM | #37 |
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If the grey maker gets to 120 to 125% of MSRP…people will pause buying and then those that still want will go grey and not deal with the time it takes to wait and build a relationship. Then, those that stuck with it will have more options. Just a guess….
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23 June 2022, 09:49 AM | #38 |
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it can work both ways, if theres a 20-30% premium that means the watches are still hard to get and in effect will require purchase history. i bought my 15450 in dec 2019 for 19.3k (msrp was 16k at the time). i couldn't even get on the wait list here for whatever reason and i wasn't even interested in the blue dial, was just told their wait list is full til at least mid 2020. i was told i could get a 39mm chrono within 3 months or so but it was a bit out of my price range at the time. in the end i lucked out because AP raised the msrp to 19.5k exactly 2 weeks later lol but the point is that was a 20% premium at the time and i had no choice
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23 June 2022, 09:51 AM | #39 |
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23 June 2022, 09:53 AM | #40 |
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waiting game and the current economy...a grey market price of next month could be the MSRP in two years. I wish my SA would just out right tell me I have no chance...
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23 June 2022, 10:07 AM | #41 |
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23 June 2022, 10:14 AM | #42 | |
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23 June 2022, 10:34 AM | #43 |
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23 June 2022, 11:44 AM | #44 | |
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From my last ROO purchase from my boutique in late 2020, I had about a 15 month wait until I got my 15500 earlier this year. From then, we got my wife's 50th 15551st and a 26574st QP RO. I'm anticipating a 50th ROC before year end. It seems to happen all at one time when it gets going. I too wondered if it was a lost cause after about a year of waiting for the 15500. I will also add that having to buy a Code or spend $100k+ to get RO pieces allocated is a myth from my experience. Might be happening in other parts of the world though..
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PP 5205G-013/ PP 5212A / AP 15416CE /26574 st QP/ AP 50th 16202st /AP 15500st Black / AP 26405CE / AP 77350CE / AP 15551st / AP 67540sk /Daytona C White/Rolex SS BLRO / Rolex Sub Green / Rolex Explorer II/ Rolex DJ Blue |
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23 June 2022, 03:45 PM | #45 | ||
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Used to be fun, but the last couple of years it's been completely bonkers. But it has started to become a tiny bit better. Usually it happens here first so be it up or down in the market. Cheers, Joe
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23 June 2022, 04:52 PM | #46 |
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Haven't posted for a while, but read this and had to comments
A popular YouTube channel has today reported that Rolex ADs in the UK have been given new 'rules' by head office: 1. They can only sell a maximum of three watches per twelve months to 'preferred clients' (i.e. the flippers) 2. They are no longer able to sell to 'new clients' who have expressed interest and have a current spend history Basically, other than preferred clients (flippers) who have less than three Rolex purchases in the last twelve months, what happens with any stock that is left over? Who does the AD sell it to? Does that stock remain in the safe until they work down the list? Do pieces end up back in the display case? This so called 'new sales policy' can only do a couple of things IMO: 1. Reigning in these preferred clients (flippers) is only going to soften the supply out into the grey market - which means that the price of existing grey market stock will either continue to rise or at least stagnate (given that we may be in for some rough times in global markets coming up in these next 12-18 months)... without doubt the last thing Rolex wants now from a 'brand perception' standpoint is for the ass to completely fall out of the value of their watches 2. The breeding of new flippers will be slowed down - while it's not great that 'new clients' are going to be denied the chance, the reality of most 'new aspiring watch collectors'... if they got a chance at a Rolex at retail right now, they are more likely than not going to liquidate the piece within the first 6-12 months having had second thoughts about whether or not they actually need the piece, knowing they can walk away making a profit or at the very least recouping their spend $ for $. These same people are also, more likely than not, going to be the ones who receive a second and third call from the AD within a reasonable space of time, and thus this is how flippers are born. These are not the type of clients that Rolex head office in Switzerland wants on their books. Having seen this video this morning, I've got a proverbial bee in my bonnet now. The gentlemen who is the subject of this video claims that he has got a extensive spend history and has 'looked after his AD' very well as a result of this - UK300k in 10 years, and despite getting offered so many hot model Rolex over that time period claims he's frustrated at the new policy because he was in line for a white gold Daytona, but because he's already reached his three limit this year he is now 'out of the game'. I don't care what anyone says - that is a lot of money to lay out on watches over any length of time, no matter how much money you earn or how much your 'net worth' is. I would find it very hard to believe that you are not a flipper and that you would not have previously already been offered PM Daytona's. The average 'super rich, super collector' is certainly not watching YouTube and e-mailing a popular channel about 'insider feedback' him/her has received from an AD either. I guess the moral of the story to conclude: If you are a 'new client' with no previous spend history trying to suck up to the AD in order to get a hot model Rolex, you may be out of luck for the moment. You are probably better off going to the grey market, but I'd shop around and try to haggle because the current state of the market puts the odds in your favour to try and get something at a 'reasonably good price' as grey dealers and flippers try to liquidate stock in these uncertain times. If you have an existing AD relationship and/or required spend history (I know the spend history can be subjective), and you're lucky enough to get the call, congratulations in advance ! |
23 June 2022, 05:10 PM | #47 |
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You have to forgive me, but don't know how many times over the years we have heard/read on this forum exactly this "my AD told me, some random guy on internet said the AD have been given this and that info from the head office" etc.
So I wouldn't take what some channel on YouTube claim to know when it comes to what Rolex have communicated to the AD (in the UK) as proof what is actually going on. Cheers, Joe
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23 June 2022, 06:28 PM | #48 |
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I learned that lesson with my Nautilus 5726. Couldn't get it at an AD, so I went grey in early 2020. The price I paid is now the msrp plus tax. Even if I had a purchase history with an AD, I would still be waiting for it.
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23 June 2022, 06:54 PM | #49 | |
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Much as it pains me to link to a Paul Thorpe YouTube video......here you go Joe; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZDAxgqpNUg |
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23 June 2022, 07:09 PM | #50 | |
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I've written a few post already regarding this over at the Rolex section. I want to belive it. But at the same time, personally I only see it as "my AD said this and that". I hope I'm 100% wrong = and instead this will be implemented, because it might mean that the watches will actually end up at the "correct" customer = someone who will keep the watch, enjoy it, and cherries for what it is. :) (I'm not entirely sure how this would help to get rid of the flippers who have already bought a popular model = is now not allowed to sign up for another one. Why wouldn’t they just use another person to go in and do the same all over again? But maybe I'm missing something here...) Cheers, Joe
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23 June 2022, 07:51 PM | #51 | |
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23 June 2022, 08:17 PM | #52 | |
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Cheers, Joe
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24 June 2022, 02:25 AM | #53 |
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Not too sure what retail is, but they do seem to be getting closer:
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24 June 2022, 02:37 AM | #54 |
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Retail is; $25,300
(hope it's ok to report on retail prices at least...) Cheers, Joe
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24 June 2022, 04:07 AM | #55 | |
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24 June 2022, 10:41 AM | #56 | |
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Doubt things will come back to mid-2020, but reasonable prices should return.
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