Talking Stocks 2.0

[jaisonline]

2020-10-25
Market on close imbalance :
$19M to the buy side

[jaisonline]

Hi,

Take a look at a couple of my posts here about it. I bought it on the day of the direct sale and more in the upper $9s.

The 17 year old company is legit. Real clients. Real growth. They are Expanding their client base from governments. The quarter of was good despite the $880m loss (mainly due to the cost around going public). Have you read the S1 & quarterly report?

Very misunderstood business. They are closely tied to a conservative government but had many contracts w/ the Obama-Biden admin. It’s a data analytics company that help companies make informed decisions & run the business better. Used by police, CIA, FBI, airline manufacturers, Operation Warp Speed, oil drilling, automotive manufacturing, etc...
Most compare it to SNOW. Palantir’s past & predictive #s blow SNOW away.

The vast # of shares getting unlocked might have a similar feel as DKNG in Oct.

Many folks are predicting the deep when the shares unlock but by question since last month that how much will the stock appreciate until weeks leading up to the unlocking. I thought $18 was def attainable if a company like SNOW was over $210 at the time. Now it’s $28.

I do play with options but do use Sell Stops. I raise my stop price each day PLTR attains a new high so it’s been a busy couple of weeks.

Originally Posted by logo

Anyone with thoughts on PLTR? I’m staying the heck away from it but I’m curious to hear others opinions in case I’m way off base.

Not keen that their client list isn’t huge, and fundamentally I don’t think their software platform is the silver bullet that will enable mass corporate AI/data analytics - not enough capability for specific tailored analysis that so many of these large businesses want, and I expect within the next 10 years that if a company is serious about AI/data they will hire for that internally. From a stock perspective, it’s obviously been on a tear that I think is unsustainable, and I’m not crazy about the flood of shares to hit the market soon.

[austinp]

Logo

Thank you for the NET pick. Up 18.5% in a couple months. Much appreciated!


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[Uggi]

Originally Posted by austinp

Logo

Thank you for the NET pick. Up 18.5% in a couple months. Much appreciated!


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Echo this. My position is on 77% and is one of the best picks this year. Picked it up early June having read up on it following logo's tips. Intended it to be a trade but I'm invested now.

[jaisonline]

Can’t hurt if you’re a Palantir investor.

“Biden picks Avril Haines as director of national intelligence”

“Since leaving the Obama administration, Haines has been affiliated with Columbia University and the Brookings Institution, and has consulted for various companies, including the national security data contractor Palantir, according to a Brookings biography unearthed by the Intercept. A source familiar with her work for Palantir confirmed it to NBC News, saying she advised the firm on diversity and advancing roles for women in technology.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncn...mpression=true

[logo]

Originally Posted by austinp

Logo

Thank you for the NET pick. Up 18.5% in a couple months. Much appreciated!


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Originally Posted by Uggi

Echo this. My position is on 77% and is one of the best picks this year. Picked it up early June having read up on it following logo's tips. Intended it to be a trade but I'm invested now.

Awesome, glad it helped :) It’s been my big winner as well, looking forward to seeing it really grow over the next few years.

[logo]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Hi,

Take a look at a couple of my posts here about it. I bought it on the day of the direct sale and more in the upper $9s.

The 17 year old company is legit. Real clients. Real growth. They are Expanding their client base from governments. The quarter of was good despite the $880m loss (mainly due to the cost around going public). Have you read the S1 & quarterly report?

Very misunderstood business. They are closely tied to a conservative government but had many contracts w/ the Obama-Biden admin. It’s a data analytics company that help companies make informed decisions & run the business better. Used by police, CIA, FBI, airline manufacturers, Operation Warp Speed, oil drilling, automotive manufacturing, etc...
Most compare it to SNOW. Palantir’s past & predictive #s blow SNOW away.

The vast # of shares getting unlocked might have a similar feel as DKNG in Oct.

Many folks are predicting the deep when the shares unlock but by question since last month that how much will the stock appreciate until weeks leading up to the unlocking. I thought $18 was def attainable if a company like SNOW was over $210 at the time. Now it’s $28.

I do play with options but do use Sell Stops. I raise my stop price each day PLTR attains a new high so it’s been a busy couple of weeks.

Thanks. I didn’t have issue with their report, and their cash position is great. However, their business has changed over the past 17 years. Originally they were more of a bespoke AI/analytics company, and then shifted towards their pre-fab software. That was a good option for ensuring broad appeal and scale-up, but as an AI engineer myself I just can’t see it taking off long term. So I’m a skeptic about it long term though perhaps short term they will indeed have some growth. Not an easy buy at these levels for sure. And I’m not sure analysts are comparing to SNOW, apart from the crazy valuation lol.

[Romeojk]

Originally Posted by Romeojk

I am holding some Slack stock, WORK, and wondering if I should sell right now today or if I should wait it out for days, weeks and let the dust settle?

it was announced today that Salesforce has interest in buying them. I bought it originally because I used it at work and thought it was a pretty good product. It is up about 20% today and not sure which way to go. Either way I am super happy about this, I think they are great and knew they needed something to get the exposure they deserve.

Thanks for any thoughts you don’t mind sharing.


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I held onto it. Advice is still appreciated


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[7sins]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Can’t hurt if you’re a Palantir investor.

So much regret not buying into this stock earlier. Trades at 21x 2021 revenue, which for relevancy, tesla trades at 12x 2021 revenue which we can all agree is overvalued. Still concerned when the lockup period expires and the market is flooded with new shares and Soro's dumps his shares given only 20% of the float is open to retail buying now. Maybe this is a byproduct of a direct listing just being too low at issuance. Crazy times, incredibly difficult to pull the trigger but don't want to miss out either.

IV is through the roof on these options, you can write 2022 jan puts and collect over a $10 premium on $25 strike, which if put to you brings your net cost below $15 which makes a lot of sense to be a net buyer at.

[BCN]

Draft kings had a similar move came out at a little over $10 shot to low $40’s before a pullback. Then shot to low 60’s. Before second pullback. Could be a potential SPAC formula. Go public in high singles, low teens, run up 400%, sell off back into the mid to high 20’s, run again. Repeat.


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[gabrielnovar]

For anyone in the crypto market 2017 this is the exact same narrative. do 100-300% gains in a month. All of us thought we had the next amazon of technology.

Look at the stocks being pumped, nothing changed business wise...or narrative wise. While low rates can make this last a while/years....no way long term will someone pay 30-100 years of revenue for these companies. You are out of your mind, when the collapse happens you will be stuck with your investment and break even may take 50 years or never.


TSLA is still relatively cheap due to their price to sales...everything else. if its over 20+ god speed you are raw dogging a club sloot thinking shes a victoria secret model...when she ain't

[RBradleigh]

Originally Posted by gabrielnovar

For anyone in the crypto market 2017 this is the exact same narrative. do 100-300% gains in a month. All of us thought we had the next amazon of technology.

Look at the stocks being pumped, nothing changed business wise...or narrative wise. While low rates can make this last a while/years....no way long term will someone pay 30-100 years of revenue for these companies. You are out of your mind, when the collapse happens you will be stuck with your investment and break even may take 50 years or never.


TSLA is still relatively cheap due to their price to sales...everything else. if its over 20+ god speed you are raw dogging a club sloot thinking shes a victoria secret model...when she ain't

Thank you that’s very helpful. While I may not be such a crypto bull I do see “value” based on increasing adoption, limited supply and a US policy that recently pumped $3 Trillion into the economy and a likely $2 Trillion more coming sooner or later.

Still speculative yes but there’s factors in play that make it a tad more solid then beanie babies and even dare I say hot SS sport Rolex.......

Sorry, I realize this is just feeding the beast and has almost nothing to do with the stock market. I promise it won’t happen again.

Be safe and happy holidays,

[huncho]

Originally Posted by gabrielnovar

For anyone in the crypto market 2017 this is the exact same narrative. do 100-300% gains in a month. All of us thought we had the next amazon of technology.

Look at the stocks being pumped, nothing changed business wise...or narrative wise. While low rates can make this last a while/years....no way long term will someone pay 30-100 years of revenue for these companies. You are out of your mind, when the collapse happens you will be stuck with your investment and break even may take 50 years or never.


TSLA is still relatively cheap due to their price to sales...everything else. if its over 20+ god speed you are raw dogging a club sloot thinking shes a victoria secret model...when she ain't

it's very reminiscent of 2017. it's like any company can go public and get to 20b+ valuation with nothing to show for it. shame that i missed out on some of these as i was considering them at times but already felt like they were overvalued (and they went up 2-3x from then anyway) but i'd rather be safe than sorry in the long term

[jaisonline]

2020-10-27
Market on close imbalance :
$81M to the sell side

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by huncho

it's very reminiscent of 2017. it's like any company can go public and get to 20b+ valuation with nothing to show for it. shame that i missed out on some of these as i was considering them at times but already felt like they were overvalued (and they went up 2-3x from then anyway) but i'd rather be safe than sorry in the long term

High risk high reward. I rather have something then nothing though in case 2017 run up happens again. I have met few individuals that will never have to work another day in their lives because they had bought Bitcoin when it was worthless.


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[beshannon]

A bit surprised this morning after great online sales numbers that the futures are down -162.

Other news taking the stage, I still believe that the sales numbers will be a positive for the markets, today might be a day to nibble or average down if possible.

Cyber Monday, IHS Markit, Zoom Video, Tesla - 5 Things You Must Know Monday

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...-monday-113020

[scarlet knight]

Are Zoom, Etsy and Shopify stocks that will continue to work after the pandemic?

[m j b]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Are Zoom, Etsy and Shopify stocks that will continue to work after the pandemic?

Good article on Shopify this past weekend in the NYT.

Zoom will continue to be a leader in its category. How the stock fares is a different story.

Etsy is a different animal. Based on my wife's activities, it's a definite buy! But again, how the stock performs is not always indicated by the success of the platform.

[chadwick4eva]

Originally Posted by beshannon

A bit surprised this morning after great online sales numbers that the futures are down -162.

Other news taking the stage, I still believe that the sales numbers will be a positive for the markets, today might be a day to nibble or average down if possible.

Cyber Monday, IHS Markit, Zoom Video, Tesla - 5 Things You Must Know Monday

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...-monday-113020

Looking at healthcare stocks this morning. PFE seems reasonably valued given forward looking earnings, vaccine in 2021, and with a healthy dividend. TMO, a company I think has a bright future, is finally trading off of some of its absurd highs, might dip my feet in here. MRK has also been trading sideways for a while and seems reasonably priced- 12.5 forward earnings, solid 3.25% yield.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

... bought Bitcoin when it was worthless.

It still is worthless. It's a market propped up by air and fantasy. There's nothing there to support it.

If you have a Dollar, or a Euro, or even a Ruble, at least that has some backing from the government or union. Bitcoin: nothing.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

Looking at healthcare stocks this morning. PFE seems reasonably valued given forward looking earnings, vaccine in 2021, and with a healthy dividend. TMO, a company I think has a bright future, is finally trading off of some of its absurd highs, might dip my feet in here. MRK has also been trading sideways for a while and seems reasonably priced- 12.5 forward earnings, solid 3.25% yield.

I am long PFE and holding it, TMO is really pricey and MRK is worth a look.

I am also looking at MCK in this space on vaccine distribution.

[chadwick4eva]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am long PFE and holding it, TMO is really pricey and MRK is worth a look.

I am also looking at MCK in this space on vaccine distribution.

@beshannon do you do any investing in inflation linked bonds at all? Given the way inflation has happened this year and leading up to 2020, and the current outlook of potentially multiple years of a low interest rate environment, it seems like ILBs may be a reasonably safe play that could experience some appreciation of principal over the next year or two.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

@beshannon do you do any investing in inflation linked bonds at all? Given the way inflation has happened this year and leading up to 2020, and the current outlook of potentially multiple years of a low interest rate environment, it seems like ILBs may be a reasonably safe play that could experience some appreciation of principal over the next year or two.

No sorry I do not. They would be too conservative for my risk appetite and goals

[-dustin]

Chinese EV stocks getting rocked today...I assume it's all a ripple effect due to the GM/ NKLA deal (or...lack of deal, I should say). Shorts taking their profits from the past couple weeks...don't blame them, if so. Haven't yet had a chance to dig deeper. I've got my stops in place for NIO, but don't see it tumbling like the others.

[Paul7]

Originally Posted by m j b

It still is worthless. It's a market propped up by air and fantasy. There's nothing there to support it.

If you have a Dollar, or a Euro, or even a Ruble, at least that has some backing from the government or union. Bitcoin: nothing.

LOL, what backing does the USD fiat currency have?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by -dustin

Chinese EV stocks getting rocked today...I assume it's all a ripple effect due to the GM/ NKLA deal (or...lack of deal, I should say). Shorts taking their profits from the past couple weeks...don't blame them, if so. Haven't yet had a chance to dig deeper. I've got my stops in place for NIO, but don't see it tumbling like the others.

These stocks trade mostly on hype and cannot easily be valued. I would not trust the financials from any of them. NKLA is a perfect example and the Chinese companies are going to remain volatile.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Are Zoom, Etsy and Shopify stocks that will continue to work after the pandemic?

I believe that ETSY and SHOP will continue to do well.

ZOOM will see changes based on many factors but the purchase of WORK by CRM shows just how much competition there is in that space and in the case of ZOOM, there is too much of a security issue for many people to use it.

ETSY and SHOP are not my kind of stocks and ZOOM to me is simply toxic.

Zoom Video Communications | +12.60% | Price $472.15
Earlier this month, Zoom Video Communications (ZM) - Get Report shares extended declines after the Federal Trade Commission said it will require the online meeting group to enhance its security privacy features.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/...la-zoom-paypal

[chadwick4eva]

Originally Posted by -dustin

Chinese EV stocks getting rocked today...I assume it's all a ripple effect due to the GM/ NKLA deal (or...lack of deal, I should say). Shorts taking their profits from the past couple weeks...don't blame them, if so. Haven't yet had a chance to dig deeper. I've got my stops in place for NIO, but don't see it tumbling like the others.

That's not it- all the Chinese stocks are getting rocked today because of this news from the weekend:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/house-t...es-11606518590

Basically if you don't comply with standardized audits, you're getting booted off the exchange. Seems like there is bipartisan support and I agree with them- if you don't play by the rules then you shouldn't be allowed to be on the field.

I hope that China matures as a nation in my lifetime- currently they behave like an angsty teenager that thinks they can do whatever they want. I'm not sure where their inflammatory rhetoric comes from- whether its a systemic issue at the top of the food chain or if its just Xi's ego.

Given their booming middle class and quickly growing economy- the country is starting to turn into what would seem a capitalistic democracy, but the CCP acts like they can do whatever they want and not face any repercussions. If China fell in line with the rest of the world and started to act a little more democratic I would feel much safer- the threat of another world war would be far less than it currently is. This current path they are on though will only lead to more friction- they've already declared that Taiwan is theres, and we will see another slow and ugly Hong Kong-esque takeover it seems. What's next? Singapore? Indonesia? Japan?

It's a bit scary that their population is entirely brainwashed because of the "Great Firewall," and doesn't have unrestricted access to the majority of the internet. Over the past few decades its become increasingly clear that the internet and the flow of information can grant great amounts of power over the minds of individuals. Unfortunately it seems that critical thinking and the ability to parse information to form one's own conclusions is not nearly as highly a valued skill in society than being told to repeat whatever you see and/or hear on social media, TV, or the web. In my travels and discussions with others from around the world, I think that most people are actually on the same wavelength and just want to live peaceful lives with family, friends, food, and a roof over their head. Not sure why we can't all just get along sometimes

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

That's not it- all the Chinese stocks are getting rocked today because of this news from the weekend:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/house-t...es-11606518590

Basically if you don't comply with standardized audits, you're getting booted off the exchange. Seems like there is bipartisan support and I agree with them- if you don't play by the rules then you shouldn't be allowed to be on the field.

I believe this is a start but China has a very long way to go to give real confidence in their securities markets.

[beshannon]

Markets now at the lows of the day Dow down -354

Not buying here if we see the start of a small pullback. I had thought the Black Friday sales numbers would get people buying but I guess not.

I would like to average down in a few names and even start a few positions if we can get a larger pullback from these levels.