Anecdotal evidence of lowering confidence in HK watch prices.

[AlbionJackal]

I've been doing the rounds for the last couple of weeks talking to secondary market dealers and ADs here in HK.

Nothing conclusive and only anecdotal but I've noticed a number of changes in the dealers' outlook;

Inventory coming on to the market...
Daytonas of all types especially PMs, and TTs.
Yacht-Masters
Milgauss

Generally less popular versions of certain models are to be had for less but...
More popular hyped models such as GMT IIs are experiencing large price drops e.g. BLNR HK$180K+ down to HK$150
Hulks HK$200+ down to HK$180

In general...
A willingness to listen to offers
A willingness to accept trade ins
A certain softness has replaced the smugness attached to the knowledge that a punter will inevitably pay the asking price minus the traditional HK$800 off.

Certain obviously over-leveraged players becoming noticeably edgy.

It would be great to hear other people's experiences who are resident in other large markets, e.g. Tokyo, Dubai et cetera.

All the best...

[AdmiralYamazaki]

Im watching this closely here in HK:
It seems many grey dealers try to unload a lot of „NOS“ watches from 2019/2020, prices seem to slowly come down.
ADs also begin to have stock again for SS Datejusts and OPs.

[AlbionJackal]

Originally Posted by AdmiralYamazaki

Im watching this closely here in HK:
It seems many grey dealers try to unload a lot of „NOS“ watches from 2019/2020, prices seem to slowly come down.
ADs also begin to have stock again for SS Datejusts and OPs.

100%.

Oriental for one have recently changed their policy.

Could it be that they know that interest from flippers and the secondary market dealers is cooling? And they're going to have to rely on Joe Public again?

Them times they are a changing!

[HMHM]

In Malaysia, one of the long term secondary dealer remains as smug as one could be though they have started to drop prices on a few models.

[resort]

Originally Posted by AlbionJackal

100%.

Oriental for one have recently changed their policy.

Could it be that they know that interest from flippers and the secondary market dealers is cooling? And they're going to have to rely on Joe Public again?

Them times they are a changing!

What's Oriental's policy now?

[resort]

Friendly grey dealer mentioned that things have really slowed down recently in HK. It was slow previously, now even more so.

Fingers crossed HK TRF collectors will be able to get their piece at MSRP soon.

[Spurman]

Good sign that its correcting. Its getting pretty freckish that a tt sub and tt sd sells much lesser than a kermit. A pepsi selling more than a rootbeer. Makes no sense.

[Emery]

Originally Posted by HMHM

In Malaysia, one of the long term secondary dealer remains as smug as one could be though they have started to drop prices on a few models.

Meanwhile, Malaysian ADs are still maintaining a strict “we have nothing available for sale” policy.

[Biogentic85]

Originally Posted by HMHM

In Malaysia, one of the long term secondary dealer remains as smug as one could be though they have started to drop prices on a few models.

i noticed malaysia grey seller almost always has a higher selling price than singapore. even factor in the conversion rate, you always saved quite a bit by just buying from Singapore. so forget about the grey in Malaysia

[AlbionJackal]

Originally Posted by resort

What's Oriental's policy now?

Anything in stock is on a first come first served basis... Seems to be to encourage customers to actually go to their shops to check out the cases. Based on my experience yesterday in TST, if you show a willingness to make visits and spend some time, other things fall into your lap...

I was asked if I wanted to try on a new Tudor model and duly complied, more out of politeness than anything else...

All of à sudden from out the back, a shop assistant appeared and said, "I don't suppose you'd want the Ceramic, we've just had a delivery of one piece"... I didn't even have to think!

OK, it wasn't a Rolex but it's still relatively difficult to find in HK.

[Seddyspaghetti]

Lol it’s pretty clear secondary prices are trending downward globally at this time.. but thanks for the “evidence”.

[sudo_root]

This reminds me of the housing collapse, slight cool down from large institutions so they could offload their junk assets before a complete crash.

[chaokuay]

China is locked down and will probably extend into 2023...

[Jkcwl]

Originally Posted by AlbionJackal

Anything in stock is on a first come first served basis... Seems to be to encourage customers to actually go to their shops to check out the cases. Based on my experience yesterday in TST, if you show a willingness to make visits and spend some time, other things fall into your lap...

I was asked if I wanted to try on a new Tudor model and duly complied, more out of politeness than anything else...

All of à sudden from out the back, a shop assistant appeared and said, "I don't suppose you'd want the Ceramic, we've just had a delivery of one piece"... I didn't even have to think!

OK, it wasn't a Rolex but it's still relatively difficult to find in HK.

That's very interesting. Frankly speaking I am alittle surprised. Was speaking to an AD, whom I've bought 2 ladyjusts this year, they kept insisting the shipments are not coming as much. Given what you've said, I will certainly head to TST for a try!

Any suggestions? I suppose those on Nathan Rd are a good start, will try to avoid Emperor!

[resort]

Originally Posted by AlbionJackal

Anything in stock is on a first come first served basis... Seems to be to encourage customers to actually go to their shops to check out the cases. Based on my experience yesterday in TST, if you show a willingness to make visits and spend some time, other things fall into your lap...

I was asked if I wanted to try on a new Tudor model and duly complied, more out of politeness than anything else...

All of à sudden from out the back, a shop assistant appeared and said, "I don't suppose you'd want the Ceramic, we've just had a delivery of one piece"... I didn't even have to think!

OK, it wasn't a Rolex but it's still relatively difficult to find in HK.

A tiny step in the right direction

[Mathematoxic]

Emperor is famous for bundling deals. No bundle = No Rolex

[AlbionJackal]

Originally Posted by Jkcwl

That's very interesting. Frankly speaking I am alittle surprised. Was speaking to an AD, whom I've bought 2 ladyjusts this year, they kept insisting the shipments are not coming as much. Given what you've said, I will certainly head to TST for a try!

Any suggestions? I suppose those on Nathan Rd are a good start, will try to avoid Emperor!

Always avoid Emperor!

[AlbionJackal]

Spoke to another couple of "dealers" over the weekend... Seems that they are getting rid of stock from HK by sending them to Europe, of all places.

Not sure of the rationale but I can imagine they're pretty overstocked and can't or prefer not to get rid here?

[AlbionJackal]

Originally Posted by Jkcwl

That's very interesting. Frankly speaking I am alittle surprised. Was speaking to an AD, whom I've bought 2 ladyjusts this year, they kept insisting the shipments are not coming as much. Given what you've said, I will certainly head to TST for a try!

Any suggestions? I suppose those on Nathan Rd are a good start, will try to avoid Emperor!

This was the one on the corner with Mody Road.

[AlbionJackal]

Originally Posted by Seddyspaghetti

Lol it’s pretty clear secondary prices are trending downward globally at this time.. but thanks for the “evidence”.

You're welcome.

Always happy to help.

[blargle]

Originally Posted by Seddyspaghetti

Lol it’s pretty clear secondary prices are trending downward globally at this time.. but thanks for the “evidence”.

why such a poor attitude?

thank you OP for this information

[ajw45]

Watchbox said they saw the watch market slowing first in their HK office in February and expected that to spread to the rest of the market in a few months since HK is usually ahead of the US/EU market. Nailed it. If Asia isn't absorbing inventory from US/EU and the flow has actually reversed the price correction will continue. Very exciting, I look forward to a world where dealers treat customers well again.

[AlbionJackal]

Originally Posted by ajw45

Watchbox said they saw the watch market slowing first in their HK office in February and expected that to spread to the rest of the market in a few months since HK is usually ahead of the US/EU market. Nailed it. If Asia isn't absorbing inventory from US/EU and the flow has actually reversed the price correction will continue. Very exciting, I look forward to a world where dealers treat customers well again.

That is why I thought this might be of interest.

Sorry, if I am came across as some sort of know-it-all!

[awu]

Thanks for the information OP. I think this is another good data point showing prices are trending downward globally.

[Jkcwl]

Originally Posted by AlbionJackal

This was the one on the corner with Mody Road.

Thanks for the info! I shall head there tomorrow to check it out!

[Jkcwl]

Originally Posted by AlbionJackal

Spoke to another couple of "dealers" over the weekend... Seems that they are getting rid of stock from HK by sending them to Europe, of all places.

Not sure of the rationale but I can imagine they're pretty overstocked and can't or prefer not to get rid here?

A few of my dealers are saying the same. They are noticing everything is pretty much slowing to a halt. This has been happening the past few weeks to say the least. Hopefully this would mean in the near future we can head back to AD's and have watches in the display not on "display only."

[jarecki]

Originally Posted by Jkcwl

A few of my dealers are saying the same. They are noticing everything is pretty much slowing to a halt. This has been happening the past few weeks to say the least. Hopefully this would mean in the near future we can head back to AD's and have watches in the display not on "display only."

And hope springs eternal!

[Tim Plains]

Sorry, but aren't a few major cities in China still in lockdown? I don't see how you guys can make any accurate assessments of stock availability elsewhere in the world until that market (and Russia) is back to normal. This is the equivalent of making long term forecasts based on the first three months of covid when everything dipped.

[ajw45]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

Sorry, but aren't a few major cities in China still in lockdown? I don't see how you guys can make any accurate assessments of stock availability elsewhere in the world until that market (and Russia) is back to normal.

Yes. However, two points:

1. The slowdown started BEFORE the latest rounds of lockdowns.

2. Unlike the first lockdowns in China where the economy was in good shape going in and people were ready to revenge buy on reopening, this time the economy was in bad shape going in and the lockdowns made it worse. While the rest of the world is raising interest rates, China is lowering them to combat high unemployment and a housing market crash. Reopening is not a guaranteed boom. We could just as likely see more inventory come on as those under lockdown are more able to and willing to sell, especially if they need the money from the effects of lockdowns or have seen the market prices fall and been unable to actually get out.

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by blargle

why such a poor attitude?

thank you OP for this information

Yes, forwarned, forearmed.