Thought about ADs and perceived SS shortage from a Newbie

[mbdurham]

As I am sitting on the couch enjoying looking at my 2 day old SD43 and reading many posts about trying to get the watch you want, AD games shortages etc my mind wanders to the following.

My Rolex story summed up short as possible is the following but well documented in other posts if you choose to read.

2000 - Bought a DJ when I could first truly afford one (early twenties) with intentions of keeping it forever and when I got married and had a son some day passing it on to him. Fast forward 13 years later not married no son DJ stolen and never replaced.

2017 - married son on the way and decided I wanted a Rolex to continue what I had wanted to do 17 years earlier only to discover no stock only greys used online blah blah same thing you all know so bought a sub from a grey after 2 years of looking (at MSRP plus tax) but really wanted my sons name on the warranty card. Got extremely lucky after visiting an AD while traveling a month ago and put my name on a list for the first time (never did before as I was told the list was long so I didn’t bother) and a month later I am wearing a SD43 which was top of my list

Anyway the whole thought process revolves around the following. After I got the SD43 from the great AD I was lucky enough to visit I told him I would also be in the market for a Daytona or BLRO when my lucky number comes up again so please keep me on the list. Of course I got the it may be a while which I know and don’t care now that I have the SD43. The point is if I would have walked into the AD a month ago and he would have had all 3 sitting in the case would I have bought all 3? Not a chance in hell. If he calls me in a month and tells me he has a Daytona will I say yes? Absolutely! And a month later he has a BLRO ..give it to me!! It’s all perception and I imagine many of you are the same. Knowing if I change my mind I can sell it for more $$

The greys doing what they are doing with the power of internet sales are completely screwing up our Rolex market and until Rolex either does DTC or allows the ADs to do internet sales it won’t change. Rolex has no reason to stop the greys nor do the ADs as they are still selling the same amount of product. Maybe even more! It’s only the end customer that suffers from this practice.

From what I have observed the greys exist from flippers who buy from their AD then sell to a grey for a small profit which the grey turns into a larger profit. I don’t think that all of Bob’s watches as an example or David SW have his name on the warranty card. So I guess really don’t blame the greys blame the people who are buying from the ADs and selling to the greys.

Anyway my 2 cent rant. Not like this is news but just my thoughts after some vino lol


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[dwjez14]

You are correct. Often people will buy a desired watch and flip it to a grey Then the grey will sale it with some mark up. So it gets marked up twice. Also grey dealers will bulk buy watches to get the rare pieces in the package. . I hope some day rolex will turn on the spicket and produce more stainless pieces. They obviously aren’t motivated by money. I bet they could send out 10,000 stainless watches tomorrow. Think about it 10,000 watches at lets say 10,000 each. 100 million.

I bet they would sale every watch if it was sub , Pepsi , hulk , Daytona. Send out 2500 of each of those world wide. I guess only time will tell what will happen. Lol

[WJGESQ]

So-you do realize that some ADs, via straw men, are grey dealers right?

[mbdurham]

Originally Posted by WJGESQ

So-you do realize that some ADs, via straw men, are grey dealers right?

I did not realize that. Makes sense. They don’t care they still sell a watch at probably more profit

This leads me to another thought actually. I am a BMW M guy and have owned several and I am in the market for a new M5. If I went to the dealer to discover they couldn’t even order me one or if so the wait list was a mile long because the dealer was selling their inventory to the used car lot down the street and my only choice was to go to a used car lot for a previously titled M5 at a 200% mark up because they bought them all and pay a premium for a used car..would I do it? No. Other manufacturers control this why cant Rolex?

I for one, and maybe the only one lol, applaud ADs who hold warranty card etc to try to stop this.


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[Hollie_Rollie]

As long as people are willing to pay DavidSW’s outrageous asking prices he’ll continue to charge as much. Don’t blame him one bit.


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[mbdurham]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

As long as people are willing to pay DavidSW’s outrageous asking prices he’ll continue to charge as much. Don’t blame him one bit.


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I don’t blame him either I would so the same. Capitalism! There is something broken in the middle that allows this to happen


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[sparksgmt]

https://www.fhs.swiss/eng/statistics.html

I keep an eye on the swiss monthly exports; I feel that demand is simply outpacing supply. Yea, sure Rolex could pump up production and meet demand easily, but that's not the Rolex way. Slow and steady wins the race.

[dwjez14]

I am not the least bit mad at the grey dealers. Shoot don’t hate the player hate the game. I blame Rolex and only Rolex. Don’t blame the greys and I don’t blame the buyers either. I do miss the days where only the stainless Daytona was hard to track down. I really
Enjoy the experience of going to your AD trying on watches and chatting it up with your sales person. It’s not just about the watch but also the experience. One of these days things will change

[mbdurham]

If Rolex made the warranty no transferable, or pulled a Ferrari (yes I know the difference in $$ but its size comparable) and monitored all serial #s to the original owner and if you flipped it you couldn’t buy another this would stop this practice. They could do this fairly easily.


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[mbdurham]

Originally Posted by dwjez14

I am not the least bit mad at the grey dealers. Shoot don’t hate the player hate the game. I blame Rolex and only Rolex. Don’t blame the greys and I don’t blame the buyers either. I do miss the days where only the stainless Daytona was hard to track down. I really
Enjoy the experience of going to your AD trying on watches and chatting it up with your sales person. It’s not just about the watch but also the experience. One of these days things will change

Agreed i will never buy grey again. Learned my lesson. I didn’t get a bad deal, good one actually as I am sure I could sell my sub for more than I paid if I choose to do so but the experience is missing. I like the sub but there’s no real connection. I will tell my son the story of his SD43 which is much more special than bought it on a website from a grey dealer. I understand that this doesn’t mean anything to everyone but to me it means a lot. I really enjoyed going to ADs hoping to find something especially the one I ultimately got my SD43 from talking watches, of course nothing to try on, but even other ADs if they had anything i may be interested in instead of a $30k PM that’s been sitting there for months they are trying to sell me. When I bought my first one nearly 20 years ago I still remember everything about the experience. Maybe the experience is something that Rolex is going to suffer from if they lose it and if something doesn’t change they will.


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[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by mbdurham

Agreed i will never buy grey again. Learned my lesson. I didn’t get a bad deal, good one actually as I am sure I could sell my sub for more than I paid if I choose to do so but the experience is missing. I like the sub but there’s no real connection. I will tell my son the story of his SD43 which is much more special than bought it on a website from a grey dealer. I understand that this doesn’t mean anything to everyone but to me it means a lot. I really enjoyed going to ADs hoping to find something especially the one I ultimately got my SD43 from talking watches, of course nothing to try on, but even other ADs if they had anything i may be interested in instead of a $30k PM that’s been sitting there for months they are trying to sell me. When I bought my first one nearly 20 years ago I still remember everything about the experience. Maybe the experience is something that Rolex is going to suffer from if they lose it and if something doesn’t change they will.


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Would you be able to honestly say that you would be as interested in these references if they were as available as they were 5yrs ago?

Every SS reference (non Daytona) was available from close to every AD everywhere...Hulks would sit in the case...etc

[007_Omega]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Would you be able to honestly say that you would be as interested in these references if they were as available as they were 5yrs ago?

Every SS reference (non Daytona) was available from close to every AD everywhere...Hulks would sit in the case...etc

Honestly, the only 2 "hype" watches in Rolex lineup are the Hulk (the biggest one by far) and then the BLNR. Obviously the Daytona but that has been hard to get for decades now so that is in its own category.

The rest are watches that people just want and can't get. The fact that they are rare or not really doesn't have too much of an effect.

[Batmannr1]

It all boils down to the marketing strategy of Rolex. Get the most iconic watches unobtainable, create a halo around the brand to attract the must-haves and overflood the market with DJs, DDs, TTs and PMs, which AD's offload to greys with the complementary in demand SS sportmodel included to soften the deal.

Rolex is master in this game, all other parties are puppets...

[strafer_kid]

Rolex could significantly improve the situation if they so wished. Perhaps they would not be able to entirely negate 'grey dealing' but they could make it less lucrative for them, and simultaneously ease the unrest and dissatisfaction experessed so frequently by so many. Surely even a partial increase in supply would relieve some of this.....if I knew I was getting a new SS sports at RRP a year or even 18 months after placing my order, that would be fine,....does not make the product any less lucrative? Clearly Rolex do not appear intent on taking action as things currently stand, for marketing reasons or whatever. Pity really!

[padi56]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Would you be able to honestly say that you would be as interested in these references if they were as available as they were 5yrs ago?

Every SS reference (non Daytona) was available from close to every AD everywhere...Hulks would sit in the case...etc

Have to agree up to a point Rolex watches today are classed as little more than $$$£££ to some.Who knows there could be a world wide group buying most all the SS then flipping straight to greys for profit.Plus the fact that the various forums advertising these grey prices thousands a time almost every day.The flippers to grey market will thrive and grow knowing Rolex now a little more than easy $$$£££.

[BillA]

Why do people really think that ROLEX cares their watches are flipped or sold in gray market?
As long as they are sold, they don’t care.
Sometimes we start believing the BS the AD’s tell us

[AdamW]

I just bought a Bluesy from an AD and not only did I have an amazing experience meeting new people, didn't have to worry about an "International Warrantee", and had a lovely glass of champers, I paid less than any unworn 116613LB that I've seen at a trusted seller. And, building a relationship with an AD is far more important in the long run when there's something I really want that's hard to get.

Just my 2 cents

[SkyJuice]

As folks here mentioned before, its all about supply vs demand.

[1William]

I am glad you got the SD43 as it is a great watch and you have a nice story to go along with it. In speaking about AD's, the Grey Market and Rolex as a company you can not talk about one with the others. This mess with availability of certain SS Sport models falls directly at the feet of Rolex. It is a product produced and distributed by them and controlled through a licensed AD network. No watches on the Grey Market did not start with the AD network and only a small percentage of new watches come from flippers. The overall arrogance of Rolex, and the Swiss Watch Industry in general, will contribute to the diminishment of the overall industry, in my opinion. Rolex has not addressed this situation either through production, controls, innovation or just a corporate statement letting its customers know what is going on and how they are dealing with the issues at hand. If Rolex cared about the impact of the Grey Market and its customers they would and could impact the Greys. How you ask. Reduce the cost on new Rolex watches by 20-25%, provide inventory to the AD's so all watches are there and replaceable in the case. Might not work initially for the Daytona-C, but all others it would. Sell Rolex watches direct to customers via the internet. This would check the silliness some AD's pull. The Greys are into many of the watches in their inventory way beyond current msrp and this would cause many to go out of business. It would kill the pre-owned market for a time but once everything leveled it would be back. But Rolex does not appear to want to solve the issues just profit from them and hype the watches. Just my thoughts.

[jrs146]

Originally Posted by BillA

Why do people really think that ROLEX cares their watches are flipped or sold in gray market?
As long as they are sold, they don’t care.
Sometimes we start believing the BS the AD’s tell us

I think you’re right up to a point. I think Rolex actually likes the gray market. They just don’t like their ADs selling to them directly.


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[DP63]

I dont get why the blame falls on Rolex, I also dont get why people think Rolex should resolve the issue by either reducing the price of their product or ramping up supply. Both of which could end up having a detrimental effect on where the company have themselves placed in the luxury goods market.

They make as many watches as they have done for years, maybe slightly more, the reduction in cost hits them directly, so why should they take the hit when everything they manufacture already sells? To appease the WIS who didnt get the watch he wants right this very minute? Seriously?

As for ramping up production, why should they? As above, everything they make, they sell, ramping up production (and all the costs associated with that) to flood the market, for what? Again, just to appease the WIS who feels hard done by that he cant get what he wants when he wants?

If people are so fixated on looking for someone/something to blame for not getting the watch that keeps them awake at night, blame the increase in demand, blame the internet and the social network influencers for creating an additional lust for these time pieces.

1st world problem .... and we look for someone to blame so they can make it all better for us.

Before anyone starts .... I'm waiting, have been for a long time .... if it happens, great, if not .... meh ... I'll move on, its not like I lose an internal organ or my first born if that itch doesnt get scratched, its only a watch.

[avidflyer]

Originally Posted by WJGESQ

So-you do realize that some ADs, via straw men, are grey dealers right?

NOOOOOOO.......Impossible

[cbiggs]

Everyone is looking for someone to blame.

Unfortunately, the markets will function as they do and as long as there is more money in the hands of consumers, there will be more demand. Would many of us like Rolex to simply increase supply to meet this level of demand? Sure, but how does this look for Rolex on their end? Hire/train more watchmakers, source more material, explains production facilities, etc...

The next question is, how long will this level of demand last? Markets in the US have already begun to adjust. Volatility, creating uncertainty, leading to a pull back in spending... Not immediately but potentially over some time as the markets continue to adjust. Just think if there were a significant increase in production coupled with another recession or significant correction. What will that do to “resale value” that so many people are concerned with? Well that means that consumers now have beautiful watches that aren’t worth nearly what they were purchased for and are now less desirable.

Will this drive greys out of the market? Probably not. They will adjust, purchase watches for even less, sell under retail and continue to exist. Who gets hurt? Rolex, Rolex employees (through layoffs), Rolex’s image (through the bad taste they have left in many customers’ mouths) and finally consumers.

So what should be done about the current “shortage?” Ride the wave. Consistency wins the race because things will change in time.

Just my .02 after what may be a bit too much coffee and free time on vacation...

*Dismounting soapbox*

[mbdurham]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Would you be able to honestly say that you would be as interested in these references if they were as available as they were 5yrs ago?



Every SS reference (non Daytona) was available from close to every AD everywhere...Hulks would sit in the case...etc

Yes I would. Those are the references I would have been choosing from anyway along with the Sub. If they were all sitting in the display case at the AD would I have bought all at once? Absolutely not but I would have bought one in 17 another in 18 and another this year most likely.

I don’t really expect all ADs to have all models readily in stock. I would however like, as all of you would, to be able to go to an AD place an order and be told it will be here in a few months, weeks whatever. Not there’s umpteen ahead of you on a list and you may never get it which leads people including me unfortunately to resort to buying from a grey and in many instances paying crazy inflated prices thinking there is no other way.

IMO There is obviously no real shortage of these pieces as all can be readily had at any time from numerous greys at a markup and if there was a shortage that wouldn't be the case. The shortage is the number of buyers that get them to keep vs buyers who get them to flip


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[Vaxe]

Capitalism at work, nothing wrong. My only gripe is with flippers who cajole/bribe their way to cut in line. If you put down your name and it comes up in the order of the list, then I think it’s fair game to do whatever you want with the watch you paid for. But paying the AD under the table so you can keep getting hot models to flip is not cool, and I’ve seen it happen way too many times. Likewise, ADs who don’t honor the list and starts bundling without informing those on the list (for right of refusal) are rotten as well. Unfortunate to see these in play today.

At the end of the day, any smart AD will tell you it’s all about long term relationship. Screwing a repeat customer over to make a quick buck with a grey is not sustainable, so most of us regulars do eventually get everything we want with some wait. But new buyers who just want to buy a BLRO or 116500 are the ones at the mercy of the game, and the solution is bundling.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by Vaxe

Capitalism at work, nothing wrong. My only gripe is with flippers who cajole/bribe their way to cut in line. If you put down your name and it comes up in the order of the list, then I think it’s fair game to do whatever you want with the watch you paid for. But paying the AD under the table so you can keep getting hot models to flip is not cool, and I’ve seen it happen way too many times. Likewise, ADs who don’t honor the list and starts bundling without informing those on the list (for right of refusal) are rotten as well. Unfortunate to see these in play today.

At the end of the day, any smart AD will tell you it’s all about long term relationship. Screwing a repeat customer over to make a quick buck with a grey is not sustainable, so most of us regulars do eventually get everything we want with some wait. But new buyers who just want to buy a BLRO or 116500 are the ones at the mercy of the game, and the solution is bundling.

Fair? What is that?

[Junior_]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

NOOOOOOO.......Impossible

<walks into AD> I’m shocked, shocked to find out there’s a grey market in this AD.

There will always be a grey market when supply is less than demand. And demand at MSRP is mismatched from supply. Hence a grey market. This is basic economics.

The only way the grey market goes away is if Rolex raises prices to market (grey) prices or raises supply. If they raise prices to market price, you’ll be able to get any watch at an AD, but you’ll pay the current grey price.

They appear to want to do neither. So we have what we have. Every watch available to anyone at market price through grey.

No AD in his right mind will allow a hot watch to go at MSRP when market price is well above that.

[watchwatcher]

I actually want my watches to still be worth something in the future. The fact that there are no steel sports available to speak of, DJ's and PM's are selling at MSRP (or a little less), means things are trending in the right direction for this to occur.

Look at it this way. The OP's SD is still fairly difficult to source. So, therefore he could offload it now for pretty close to the money he's got in it, maybe even make a tiny profit. In a period of several years, given the same supply levels as present day, he might stand to make even more of a profit should he need to sell it.

However, if, in that same time period, you can walk into any random AD you come across, and there's 1 or 2 sitting there, then that watch is probably worth no more than 50% of what he paid for it. That's kind of where we were at a few years ago, TBH. I paid about 8600 for an LV-C, which had been there at the AD laying around for months. I didn't even try to negotiate, they just offered that...probably could have done better. All you LV owners, would you rather pay 8600 for a brand new LV, no waiting, have it on your wrist today...and have it be worth 7k (best case), or pay MSRP and play the waiting game and have it be worth 12k? Or more?

I understand the frustration involved, especially with not even being able to try stuff on nowadays, but you gotta take the bad with the good. You don't get your cake and eat it too, after all.

Just my two cents.

[ilovethiscity]

Originally Posted by dwjez14

I am not the least bit mad at the grey dealers. Shoot don’t hate the player hate the game. I blame Rolex and only Rolex. Don’t blame the greys and I don’t blame the buyers either. I do miss the days where only the stainless Daytona was hard to track down. I really
Enjoy the experience of going to your AD trying on watches and chatting it up with your sales person. It’s not just about the watch but also the experience. One of these days things will change

What’s interesting for me to read and totally sad is i’m 30 years old got into Rolex not long ago and I have never even had or known the experience of going to an AD and see or try on anything SS/sports etc whatsoever.. I can go to greys and look at any model I want for double list price (which for me is totally unafordable) crazy market it’s sad really!

[Net-man]

Internet is the new variable in the mix. A lot more people are comfortable buying new over Internet than 5 years ago.
At some point Swiss watch makers will embrace the platform, just like other luxury brands have.
Some hard to get items will remain, rest should balance out.



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