View: Rolex Knows

[klenboy]

Originally Posted by lightingball2

Im curious, what AD is it in the bay area? I'm in Sacramento and there were 2 AD here, now just one. Grebitus and Sons just lost their AD of Rolex. They had them for over 60 years, along with a ceritified Rolex technician there. Now Devon's is it in Sacramento.......

I'm also curious to know which one it is. I have a hunch though but would like to validate it.

[lawrence1]

Originally Posted by peacocknation

I visited a Bay Area AD this weekend that in a couple months will no longer be a Rolex AD. Apparently Rolex wanted a lot more floor space and the owner didn’t agree. So...cya Rolex (bummer since I’ve bought 3 pieces there in the last year).

The business guy in me is trying to figure this one out. If Rolex didn’t want the AD at current size, why lose a distributor completely? If Rolex planned to close certain dealers to consolidate their distribution, why offer a larger floor space?

Maybe the plan was to push a few AD’s to see if they would expand, and the ones that don’t lose the ability to sell Rolex watches? Fewer AD’s would mean what? Could Rolex increase prices to the fewer AD’s and explain it away by saying your overall volume will increase?

But to the original post - the more I think about the current state of SS sport watches and Rolex in general, the more I believe demand is just there. Heck, I bought 3 in the last year without ever buying one before.

Interesting. Why would rolex ask for more floor space when current floor space is sitting empty or severely underutilized? Do they want even more empty cases or what? I’ve read this reasoning before from others on this forum but it doesn’t make any sense to me. Are these rolex reps complete morons to the point they are not aware there is no product to sell, much less sitting around in ADs cases? That seems unlikely. All in all, it isn’t surprising ADs are refusing to do build outs or allocate more space since it would be a complete waste of time and money given current supply levels.

[GradyPhilpott]

This is my take:

Rolex is not screwing up and things will normalize in time.

My prediction is that people who are paying inflated prices are going to get stung, if they wait too long to sell, if that is their intention.

Those who are just willing to pay whatever it takes to get what they want will have what they want and will be happy no matter what.

Those who go out on a limb to buy at inflated prices will have buyer's remorse when things get back to normal and watches are selling at MSRP at ADs.

I'm no clairvoyant or even an expert at finance, but don't all bubbles burst eventually?

[Oldfellow]

Originally Posted by carlhaluss

Well, I am neither an economist nor a speculator. I just like watches. And I love Rolex watches, just as much or more than some other brands. And, to be honest, I don't really and truly understand a lot of what is being talked about on the forums, apart from the fact that there is a shortage of Rolex stainless steel sports watches. Although, I do try to understand, and respect, all the opinions expressed here by the OP and others.

I am very fortunate to have a wonderful AD, who also sells other great brands like my H. Moser where I started my relationship with him. And he is also one of my favorite people, a wonderful and successful guy who also has the trait of being humble. He has a very successful business, and treats his employees and customers with utmost respect.

After years and years of collecting and flipping, I have ordered a Sub 114060 from my AD. I have been told it will take a while, but not as long as a Pepsi GMT or SD43. I am totally fine with that, and I know that they will do their best for me. They like me, and I like them. We both got to this point out of mutual respect and enthusiasm for watches. And we are all passionate about the Rolex brand. For me, that's all I need to keep me happy.

I really love this forum, and I wish all of you guys the same happiness.

Cheers,
Carl

Well said Carl.

[Oldfellow]

Originally Posted by GradyPhilpott

This is my take:

Rolex is not screwing up and things will normalize in time.

My prediction is that people who are paying inflated prices are going to get stung, if they wait too long to sell, if that is their intention.

Those who are just willing to pay whatever it takes to get what they want will have what they want and will be happy no matter what.

Those who go out on a limb to buy at inflated prices will have buyer's remorse when things get back to normal and watches are selling at MSRP at ADs.

I'm no clairvoyant or even an expert at finance, but don't all bubbles burst eventually?

I think your view sums up the situation quite succinctly.
The big question is, when will the bubble burst.
At my age, I hope it is sooner rather than later.

[Soultime]

The one thing I do know, is that the situation seems to be getting worse and we all seem to be just speculating still.
This is a couple of years down the line now and we are still none the wiser.

It's starting to bore me and I am going to try and stop reading any more threads on it for a while. Hopefully by then someone may actually know what's going on.

[Castlesinthesky]

Rolex know exactly what they are doing and are doing a good job of it too. Taking the brand up a notch, creating more customer awareness of the brand, increasing sales.

[andyxxx]

I also doubt Rolex want to retail their watches.

However, I believe they could make a far greater profit from each watch.
They could also be certain who gets what and how many people are actually waiting for each watch (no more duplicate names down at multiple Ads)

I would have thought the perfect business plan would be:

Own a handful of strategically placed boutiques that stock every model (UK could have say four instead of the hundreds at present.
Have a retail website that actually works and enables customers to purchase watches (with an anticipated delivery date) and then have the option of direct delivery or collection from the boutique.

[Brew]

I can't imagine Rolex wants to deal with WISs.

Does anyone have a guesstimate as to what % of Rolex's sales are from the Professional line? Is it possible the ss WIS is making a huge deal over something that isn't really much of a concern to Rolex, as long as the DJs and DDs keep moving?

[igomez70]

I’m sitting here reading this and can’t help but think who cares, really think about it Rolex is just too common, maybe they are just tired of themselves.

Have y’all gone out lately?, man I was out with my wife at a very nice trendy place in Wynwood and I swear at least 90% of the crowd there were wearing a fucking Rolex (wife included), it was so obvious it was impossible not to notice, I think even the valet kid was wearing one.

When I got home I really wanted to throw my Sub to the trash, but what I did instead was to put a rubber strap on it, looks great btw, I don’t thing I would ever want to see an oyster bracelet again.

I’m not trolling man, I’m really happy I sold most of them and only have one, I much prefer wearing anything else, even Casio.

[nigelUK]

Rolex do not have shareholders or owners, they have custodians. They are a trust and essentially non-profit making. The custodians don't benefit financially. Their profits are ploughed back into investment, employee benefits, some charities and fantastic high tech factories and buildings.

I don't believe they have the same drive to maximize profits like some of the other Swiss manufacturers.

This possible temporary massive upsurge in popularity, would not lead them to increasing labour force and output exponentially, just to 'make hay while the sunshines'. And then possibly be left with surplus labour & equipment when things calm down or the 'bubble bursts' ..

They have a full and incredibly healthy order book and no board to answer to. I'm sure they have decided to keep things steady rather than reacting, although maybe it has gone on longer than what they expected.

Most of this extra demand is likely as a result of the instagram world we live in. It wouldn't take many potential new customers to go into every AD in the world wanting a Stainless Steel sports watch, to make the demand increase to an unattainable level.

This is just my personal thought on it ... I accept I could be talking out my arse

[Gaijin]

Originally Posted by toolr

The Milgauss GV comes to mind. When released, some were paying upwards of $18k, where are those values now?

That was based all on some wrong hype that Rolex was having problems making the green crystal.

Yea, I imagine a lot of people got hosed on that trying to speculate.

Still a cool watch though.

[Gaijin]

Eliot that was a great read. Well written.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Brew

I can't imagine Rolex wants to deal with WISs.

Does anyone have a guesstimate as to what % of Rolex's sales are from the Professional line? Is it possible the ss WIS is making a huge deal over something that isn't really much of a concern to Rolex, as long as the DJs and DDs keep moving?

I posted this elsewhere, but the Rolex Watch Company LTD, the UK subsidiary of Rolex SA, are obliged to post their annual accounts online. They show that in 2017, the last for which figures are available, the company in the UK doubled it's profits compared to 2016. 2017 is notable as the first full year of trading after the Brexit vote and the year that most of us this side of the pond noticed a major issue with obtaining SS Professional watches from an AD, when lists started to lengthen and it's when grey prices started to go up.

As far as this (admittedly single sample of) objective evidence goes, Rolex in the UK were doing just fine regardless and in fact substantially improving their bottom line.

I suspect you're right, they don't really care too much what a fraction of a percentage of their customer base think who, no matter how much they moan, will buy the watches regardless. The figures for 2018 will be very interesting.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

Eliot that was a great read. Well written.

Ty!

[mr_gray]

i know there have been a lot of threads about this matter but i reckon some of the takes here are as good as i have heard.

i do feel nostalgic for the days (not so long ago mind you, early 2017 maybe it ended) of rolex availability and i agree with an earlier poster that it didn't need to be unobtanium for me to appreciate my first rolex (a 114060). it was objectively a beautiful thing and i remember being giddy at how accessible it was (email dsw and send $6k AUD - exchange rate was parity or better at this time.)

the subC lasted like 2 months before i ordered what i had really wanted. and that was 9k aud exactly as i recall. it was nice!

[AK797]

This whole thing started off in the mad rush after the Brexit vote in 2016 when foreign raiders as a collective decided to go in hard for SS Rolexes and Pateks and sent signals all around the world via SM that these were the hot must-have watches, and that has not let up even now... and yet the actual Brexit leave date is now just a few weeks away and we could very well end up not leaving at all. So all of these world-changing, seismic shifts in the watch market could have all been based on a ruse.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by AK797

This whole thing started off in the mad rush after the Brexit vote in 2016 when foreign raiders as a collective decided to go in hard for SS Rolexes and Pateks and sent signals all around the world via SM that these were the hot must-have watches, and that has not let up even now... and yet the actual Brexit leave date is now just a few weeks away and we could very well end up not leaving at all. So all of these world-changing, seismic shifts in the watch market could have all been based on a ruse.

Will you guys just make up your minds

[Brew]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

I suspect you're right, they don't really care too much what a fraction of a percentage of their customer base think who, no matter how much they moan, will buy the watches regardless. The figures for 2018 will be very interesting.

99.9% of us don't even use these Pro pieces for their intended use. What must Rolex think of how its tech is used by the average WIS?! They may ever prefer not to sell a watch to someone who is going to put it in his plate of pasta.

[GBD]

Rolex is generally a smart company, but I think we often give them more credit than we should. They are just a luxury goods company and are subject to the same whims of the market, although being a trust lets them take other things into consideration. But companies, like cars, always eventually end up in the junkyard. Rolex is no exception.

[watchwatcher]

Agree for the most part, Eliot.

You've got to take the bad with the good. The good is that your watches are worth something. The bad is that you've got to wait and there are no watches to even try on anymore.

But...would you rather they not be worth anything? My prediction is that the ones who are on here complaining the most about availability and how screwed up Rolex is would be crying louder if their watches were suddenly worth about 50% of what they paid.

Yeah...Rolex knows what they're doing.

[amh]

I think it's merely Supply & Demand. ADs are closing because there aren't enough watches coming from Rolex to support them. Rolex won't increase production because there will be another recession at some point and then supply would be too great.

Best just to stay the course

[cdubg21]

I wonder if this year’s big announcement at Basel will be a bunch of the SS models getting new movements. Maybe they have burned through the last of the models with the old movement (hence the shortage) and have boatloads of models with the new movement ready to go, pending the big unveiling. Given it reportedly takes 14 months to make a Rolex, I could see “timing” a transition like this being very difficult and maybe that is what we are experiencing. Who knows? I sure don’t! Just spitballing, and hoping we have more answers after Basel 2019.

[blufinz52]

Originally Posted by Etschell

Much less. Where are all the other ss sportswatch model prices though now? Of course one will be a dog.

I am not encouraging anyone to pay 16k for a ss blro fwiw. But if you like a blro it has more pedigree than the milguass so maybe it wont go below a certain point or maybe it will. The Tudor GMT hasnt really even dropped so maybe it is a bubble.

Hey, them's are fightin' words

[MHB]

Originally Posted by GradyPhilpott

This is my take:

Rolex is not screwing up and things will normalize in time.

My prediction is that people who are paying inflated prices are going to get stung, if they wait too long to sell, if that is their intention.

Those who are just willing to pay whatever it takes to get what they want will have what they want and will be happy no matter what.

Those who go out on a limb to buy at inflated prices will have buyer's remorse when things get back to normal and watches are selling at MSRP at ADs.

I'm no clairvoyant or even an expert at finance, but don't all bubbles burst eventually?

I politely disagree. DavidSW is currently listing a SubC Date unworn (but with plastic removed) for $9975. MSRP is $8550 so it's roughly a 15% markup from new at an AD.

I'm sure Rolex is closely monitoring the grey market and they see people are snatching up their product at inflated prices. It is free market analysis.

Rolex is licking it's chops in anticipation of increasing pricing 15%+ in the next couple years. To do this, they need to lower supply to increase exclusivity and desirability.

Now is a great time to buy a Rolex. I see SubC Date prices easily reaching 10k in the next 3 years. Heck, they're at 10k now (see above).

[FoolioABC]

Originally Posted by peacocknation

I visited a Bay Area AD this weekend that in a couple months will no longer be a Rolex AD. Apparently Rolex wanted a lot more floor space and the owner didn’t agree. So...cya Rolex (bummer since I’ve bought 3 pieces there in the last year).

The business guy in me is trying to figure this one out. If Rolex didn’t want the AD at current size, why lose a distributor completely? If Rolex planned to close certain dealers to consolidate their distribution, why offer a larger floor space?

Maybe the plan was to push a few AD’s to see if they would expand, and the ones that don’t lose the ability to sell Rolex watches? Fewer AD’s would mean what? Could Rolex increase prices to the fewer AD’s and explain it away by saying your overall volume will increase?

But to the original post - the more I think about the current state of SS sport watches and Rolex in general, the more I believe demand is just there. Heck, I bought 3 in the last year without ever buying one before.

Which AD is it? That’s too bad there aren’t really THAT many in the area...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Trazor]

Quite a few Rolex reps have said that the extreme demand has caught them out, nothing more to the shortage than that.
Ramping up production to satisfy demand may be impossible, due to materials//machines/staff.
Increased production via increased capital expenditure/more machines/extra staff, may burst the bubble and be counter productive.

[Calatrava r]

Its all about survival in a tough declining watch market. Rolex, PP and AP are fully committed to reducing supplies and creating waitlists. That is the new world of their watches. It has spiked the gray market and made flippers of some of their most loyal customers. It has soured so many on the brands from the non-availability. It may work. It may also speed their demise.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by Trazor

Quite a few Rolex reps have said that the extreme demand has caught them out, nothing more to the shortage than that.
Ramping up production to satisfy demand may be impossible, due to materials//machines/staff.
Increased production via increased capital expenditure/more machines/extra staff, may burst the bubble and be counter productive.

Lack of supply creates demand. People soon want what they cannot get. Just three years ago, ADs got 12 or more Subs a year. They were always in the case. Date or no Date plus the black GMT. In the late summer of 2017 Rolex stopped all deliveries world wide for the year. Shortages began immediately all over the world. If that is not by plan, I do not know what is.

[007_Omega]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Its all about survival in a tough declining watch market. Rolex, PP and AP are fully committed to reducing supplies and creating waitlists. That is the new world of their watches. It has spiked the gray market and made flippers of some of their most loyal customers. It has soured so many on the brands from the non-availability. It may work. It may also speed their demise.

We live in our watch world but the reality is that many luxury goods companies are utilizing the same strategy.

It's all about exclusivity and the desire to get something hard to get. Demand has increased and Rolex has decreased the supply or at the very least kept it the same. Now, Rolex has you begging for their products. You are now considered lucky to be able to pay $10,000 for a mechanical watch at retail.

I understand why Rolex is doing it. They sell an outdated product that used to be a tool and is increasingly becoming jewelry. Not everyone needs a watch anymore.

Omega nearly died as a company because it marketed itself as a premiere timekeeper that won countless accuracy competitions. Once quartz came, that marketing strategy was void. Rolex survived by adapting with the times and moving more towards the luxury space. Now, it is moving even more towards luxury.

The only way any watch company is going to survive in the coming decades is to cement themselves as a luxury good. Watches are now works of mechanical art on your wrist if you want to romantic or if you want to be less elegant then they are a piece of success on your wrist. They are an outfit accessory and not a necessity. Even Seiko is doing the same thing. They are killing off their entry level pieces, increasing their prices, and now heavily focusing on the Grand Seiko brand in the US.

As watch enthusiasts, it sucks. Especially as a young one, as I have just gotten to an age where I can start to afford these things I dreamed about when I was younger. Rolex knows the watch enthusiast isn't the key to survival. We are by far the minority.