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23 July 2021, 09:15 PM | #1 |
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did Patek Philippe decision to steer young crowd away from Nautilus work?
In the beginning of 2021, Thierry Stern dropped the bomb of discontinuing the stainless steel 5711 Nautilus. Easily the most sought after watch. A watch that we known and loved for years. A watch can't be bigger than a brand for PP.
So was it the right move? did the move deliver what was expected? the below is mere personal observations and not based on actual scientific research or data :) i believe Patek Philippe is a very prestigious brand that so many people aspire to own a watch from. Ever since the Stern family acquired the brand and saved it from bankruptcy in 1932 the company have been managed in a very strategic way (The stern family where the dial makers for PP before acquiring the brand so for sure they know the ingredients of high watch making). since 1932 there hasn't been many mistakes made by PP. the style of PP have always been elegant and slim. Roman numerals, precious metals, thin profile, high complications etc. and that really was very appealing to middle aged elegant and well dressed men and women. back then the brand had two main offerings: simple dress watches and grand complicated watches. in an attempt to create a middle segment and capture younger crowd, PP introduced the annual calendar complication (ref 5035) in the mid 90s where it was the middle point between the simple time only (Calatrava and Gondolo) and the grand complication line. it was also in the middle point in terms pricing. the attempts to capture more younger crowd continued over the years with the introduction of more sporty offerings: Aquanut ref 5065A in steel Annual Calendar with more casual and less dressy dial ref 5146 (replaced roman numerals with Arabic numerals) Annual Calendar ref 5396 Pilot watch ref 5524 World time chrono ref 5930 i don't have exact numbers of how well those references sold, but by 2015-2016 pop-culture effect on watch collecting community started being more apparent with the hyped desirability of the 5711 and other steel sports models from other manufacturers. PP response wasn't late, 3-4 years later they introduce the ref 5212A. the first serially produced complicated watch with steel case. the watch community were thrilled about the new ref but that didn't slow the demand on the 5711 (although they where priced in the same range) and perhaps due to limited supply of 5212As. in the same year, PP introduced another new steel ref 6007 which was a limited run of 1,000 pieces to celebrate the new PP building and again it was received well by watch community but it didn't slow the demand for 5711 (my guess is that this ref was an experimental ref for PP to see how people would react to a steel three hander in terms of design/pricing etc.) 2020 was an exceptional year so many fronts, it made us rethink about so many things in life and perhaps PP did the same. The announcement to discontinue the 5711 came in early 2021 so how did that change people's prospective. The announcement to discontinue the 5711 came in before watches and wonders 2021. so people where eager to know what would be the nautilus replacement. they announced the green dial 5711 in the first day but that wasn't what i was interested in. i was eager to see where PP is heading as a manufacturer because i could see the historic trend. The second release in watches and wonder as well as subsequent releases didn't disappoint: new grand complication refrences and more sporty offerings in addition to modern elegant dress watches. so what have been the result so far now that we are almost six months from the decision to discontinue the 5711. i believe ADs are getting asked about the nautilus less :) more people are exploring other offering of PP. i see so many new posts now about ACs, pilot watches, precious metal aquanut, 5172 manual wound chrono and 5320 perpetual calendar etc. so it seems that PP strategy is working curious to hear your thoughts last run of 5711 photo credits PP, A Collected man (for 5056A)
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23 July 2021, 09:23 PM | #2 |
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Unfortunately no. Thats the simple answer at this point. ADs are getting more calls than ever asking about Nautilus and Aquanauts. But because of this sales of dress watches have gone up as well - calatrava, AC, PCC have all benefited from the Nautilus demand because people start to know more about Patek and their other offerings or they bundle other watches to get the Nautilus. So has the Nautilus demand slowed down? NO. Has the demand of other watches gone up? YES.
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23 July 2021, 10:26 PM | #3 | |
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First, I believe it is too soon to know if the decision was the right move. I don’t even know what is “right”. Ultimately, there will be more precious metal PP’s sold compared to SS. The second question requires more time also. Six months is too soon to say if the move is delivering on expectations. At least SS “barbarians” aren’t storming the gates at PP HQ. Such a decision will tilt demand to other models - but PP will not be able to meet it - Stern said annual production isn’t rising appreciably. So more people exploring other models isn’t going to help anyone. In your conclusion, you said it seems the strategy is working. What do you believe is the strategy? I feel as though the 2021 PP leadership decision is faulting the 1976 PP leadership decision when this first came out… Back then, PP was a relatively “fast follower” in Sports as they positioned it against the 1972 Royal Oak with a tag line like “One of the world’s costliest watches is made of steel.” Shifting gears, it’s like seeing this Ferrari today and wondering “too what end does one do such a terrible thing?”… PS: That is their rumored SUV named Purosangue. When “redefining expectations”, be careful what you ask for… Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
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23 July 2021, 11:42 PM | #4 |
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SS mania is simply a paradigm shift on how people see luxury watches - steel works with everything, steel on a bracelet works with everything. Wasn't there one guy during marriage between Harry and Meghan sporting SS Daytona with a tuxedo?
People do not want 5 watches anymore, they want 1 and spend the rest of the money on vacation, house, stock market, etc. Leather strap or delicate, complicated watch simply limits you. |
24 July 2021, 12:14 AM | #5 |
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PP strategy will work and they are not stupid.
Stern mentioned earlier this year that steel sport watches are only 10-11% (production) and will stay at this level. Patek is not about steel watches. Grand Complications, Complications and Calatrava are backbone of Patek Philippe. We cannot focus short term with Patek.
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24 July 2021, 12:25 AM | #6 |
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Very simply I think the Nautilus tide lifts all boats.
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24 July 2021, 12:35 AM | #7 | |
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24 July 2021, 12:46 AM | #8 |
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24 July 2021, 02:15 AM | #9 |
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Good insight OP. I appreciate your perspective on this.
I was hoping to get a blue 5711 from my AD before discontinuation so I'm still mad at Mr. Stern
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24 July 2021, 04:45 AM | #10 |
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Patek made the right move. You don't want to anchor the entire brand on a single model. Look at AP - if you take RO and the offshoots (Offshore, Concept), the brand has little going for it. No interesting complications whatsoever and odd collabs.
Patek, Lange, Vacheron know what is up. They offer variety in terms of models and complications. Also, unless you're talking about an extra-extra thin two hander, most dress watches go well with polos and casual straps. For me, a sports watch is basically a synonym with a beater - a thing I can beat to death and replace for next to nothing. Therefore, I am doubling down on dress pieces.
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24 July 2021, 06:37 AM | #11 | |
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24 July 2021, 09:24 AM | #12 |
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24 July 2021, 09:32 AM | #13 |
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Don't confuse short term popularity with long-term brand value. Rolex are great marketing machines that happen to sell watches on the side.
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24 July 2021, 09:53 AM | #14 |
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To keep after the next gen it is not the nautilus or aquanaut but rather the next design - the next genta. New versions and colors are great but at some stage there should be a more meaningful change to set the next trend.
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24 July 2021, 12:06 PM | #15 |
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24 July 2021, 12:11 PM | #16 | |
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Doubling down on dress watch, sure that's also your perogative. Fyi, office wear is getting less formal, not many tuxedo events now... Go double that down please |
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24 July 2021, 01:44 PM | #17 |
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I find it funny when people label non sports Patek as dress pieces. Similar to vman, a sports watxh is something you can wear at pool or wherever and don’t have to worry about water resistance or a few dings.
All these complicated pieces can be dressed down with a less formal non alligator leather strap - huge amount of options out there. For example the blue calf strap which comes with the 5172g. They all look awesome to me and the nice thing is won’t draw attention like the steel or rose gold bracelets of nautilus. Check out Russell photo of the stunning black 5370p on the 6007a strap - now that’s a Patek and stealth on a casual strap. Suitable for any occasion whatever you’re wearing in my opinion and no tux required lol. Back to original theme I do think there is more and more interest amongst the younger generation with regard to calatrava and more complicated pieces and the brand history. It also seems a lot more people taking interest in the vintage pieces and enjoying wearing them which is great to see. |
24 July 2021, 01:50 PM | #18 | ||
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Back to the topic, dropping Nautilus is not a bad move by Patek. They have to diversify and look out for the future of the brand. Look up their collection - neat. You can find almost any complication as well as simple stuff. Same with Lange and Vacheron. You can actually go to an AD and try a few watches. I don't see how a discontinuation of the single model will destroy the brand. Car makers have adopted to diversify so that they are not defined by the same model. Soft drink brands got into healthier alternatives. The list goes on and on. Also, keep in mind that Nautilus was not really a "young crowd watch." I remember when you could get one w/o a hassle and it was still priced well above the usual suspects.
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24 July 2021, 01:58 PM | #19 | |
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A good example: Combos like that go well with smart casual and young guns don't need to worry about losing out precious Nautilus.
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24 July 2021, 02:08 PM | #20 | |
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Also yes, time moves on... Are you saying things that goes up must come down?what is unpopular must become popular just because it is "cool" to move against the wave? One does not need fancy complications to be a WIS. My most complicated watch is the ROC 26300. Unless you have a time machine, the trend has changed, and you need to move on with the time.... Tesla is now $640 after a stock split right? During that time frame, it was a $100 stock pre stock split... Are you the kind of guy that bets it will go back to that price ever? |
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24 July 2021, 05:28 PM | #21 |
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24 July 2021, 07:37 PM | #22 |
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good point, and in the grand scheme of things i believe this still benefits PP. because once you put a dress PP on your wrist, it will change your perception about the whole brand being more than just the nautilus
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24 July 2021, 07:38 PM | #23 | |
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24 July 2021, 07:44 PM | #24 |
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24 July 2021, 07:52 PM | #25 | |
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1- tilting the demand towards other models (the essence of PP models) is the strategy. 2- the strategy is to take people interest back to true PP, elegant and well made dress watches, complicated watches and grand complicated watches, PCC and minute repeaters etc. The steel sports lines will still exist but as a complement to the offerings. 3- i don't think the 2021 PP leadership is necessary faulting the 1976 PP leadership, they haven't completely stopped the nautilus line. they just stopped the SS 5711 because perhaps it started cannibalizing other lines. 4- PP was never a fast follower, as a matter of fact people in the watch industry and AP specifically where shocked when PP came up with the Nautilus 4 years after the Royal Oak because that was unexpected from PP (watch JCB interview with Hodinkee where he testifies about how shocked where AP executives that PP copied the RO recipe). so historically PP where never followers.
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24 July 2021, 08:11 PM | #26 | |
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steel is light and especially on full bracelet steel is more scratch resistant than WG steel in theory should cost less than WG or P there are so many benefits to steel
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24 July 2021, 09:06 PM | #27 |
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you are right, nautilus and aquanut are supposed to complement the: grand complications, complication and calatrava not takeover from them
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24 July 2021, 09:14 PM | #28 | |
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i have a steel 5712 and it is gorgeous.
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24 July 2021, 10:01 PM | #29 | |
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PP watches were delivered to clients like: HM Queen Elizabith II (unique Ellipse) King Farouq of Egypt (1518) King Michael of Romania (1518) Sultan Qabous of Oman (3700) George HW Bush (3940) and many more royalties, heads of states, politicians, diplomats, business men etc. people in those circles still dress formally
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24 July 2021, 10:06 PM | #30 | |
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