Talking Stocks 2.0

[trippinjimmy]

WOW who else owns ttd? Happy day!!!


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Interesting that you closed out of SQ; that's a long-term hold for me, as I think they have plenty of runway left and don't find the valuation insane (when compared to something like a TSLA).

I believe they have too much competition and I did not like the crypto entry. They have no moat and a rich valuation, so just a trade for me.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by trippinjimmy

WOW who else owns ttd? Happy day!!!


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Can't win them all - I've had this on the watchlist for few weeks and when it dipped last week to the 570 level (and even lower), I was VERY tempted to buy in. I hesitated because of the volatility and runup of it...and here we are.

Oh well - onto the next.

[jaisonline]

Just a heads up. Wall St Journal has a deal currently. $4 / month for online subscription access. Decent price for 12 months.

[mbalmz]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Can't win them all - I've had this on the watchlist for few weeks and when it dipped last week to the 570 level (and even lower), I was VERY tempted to buy in. I hesitated because of the volatility and runup of it...and here we are.

Oh well - onto the next.

I got in at 475 during the big september dip and am still just upset I didn’t get in for more since. you can’t win against the FOMO lol

[austinp]

Retirement question.
Once you reach your retirement goal but aren’t quite ready to retire, what type of investment should your money be in? Super conservative? Or leave some in growth?


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[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by austinp

Retirement question.
Once you reach your retirement goal but aren’t quite ready to retire, what type of investment should your money be in? Super conservative? Or leave some in growth?


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I believe it is recommended to have at least 30% in equities in order to keep up with inflation. That is quite conservative and not what I would personally do but it's considered a minimum to maintain spending power. There are a lot of variables involved in asset allocation at or close to retirement that would require an in depth analysis.

[beshannon]

Pfizer, Biden, Biogen, McDonald's, Beyond Meat - 5 Things You Must Know Monday

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...-monday-110920

Futures exploding higher based on PFE news, S&P +117, DOW +1153

This is a sell the news moment for me, I will be taking more profits today

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by austinp

Retirement question.
Once you reach your retirement goal but aren’t quite ready to retire, what type of investment should your money be in? Super conservative? Or leave some in growth?


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Impossible to answer such a broad question.

So much is based on debt, assets, future projections on the costs of health care and living expenses.

IMHO I will always be invested in some type of equities as company ownership is the surest path to growing wealth.

[trippinjimmy]

There was 4.3 trillion sitting in money market accounts last week, and promising vaccine data shoots up the SP and QQQ 2%ish and the Dow 1200? All amidst Europe starting to lock down and threats here? I may be taking quite a few profits today...

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by trippinjimmy

There was 4.3 trillion sitting in money market accounts last week, and promising vaccine data shoots up the SP and QQQ 2%ish and the Dow 1200? All amidst Europe starting to lock down and threats here? I may be taking quite a few profits today...

Well the cash has puzzled market observers for years and been called a catalyst for big moves up.

The reality is that (IMHO) the cash is almost always wrong and is sitting when it should be working and losing value when it should be protected. Some people are always on the wrong side of the trade.

Whatever the case, this move higher is too much too fast and this is a text book sell the news event.

[trippinjimmy]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Pfizer, Biden, Biogen, McDonald's, Beyond Meat - 5 Things You Must Know Monday

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...-monday-110920

Futures exploding higher based on PFE news, S&P +117, DOW +1153

This is a sell the news moment for me, I will be taking more profits today

Just saw this - guess we're thinking the same! And I'm a long term invester... but this action makes me nervous, and I'd rather quit while I'm ahead for the time being!

I was down 20% about 9 days ago, was about +2% from pre-correction level at Friday's close. I'd imagine I'll be up another 2-3% today upon opening. I just don't see the upside at this point with winter coming and lockdowns starting.

I'm extremely aggressive, but this just makes me nervous.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by trippinjimmy

Just saw this - guess we're thinking the same! And I'm a long term invester... but this action makes me nervous, and I'd rather quit while I'm ahead for the time being!

I was down 20% about 9 days ago, was about +2% from pre-correction level at Friday's close. I'd imagine I'll be up another 2-3% today upon opening. I just don't see the upside at this point with winter coming and lockdowns starting.

I'm extremely aggressive, but this just makes me nervous.

Agreed.

In the interest of transparency and disclosure, I have core holdings that I will not be selling. Then I have trades that for various reasons I could sell, keep or add to based on the markets.

I will NOT be selling my PFE today but I could be selling some tech names or others to raise cash and protect profits.

[Xelorpepsi]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Well the cash has puzzled market observers for years and been called a catalyst for big moves up.

The reality is that (IMHO) the cash is almost always wrong and is sitting when it should be working and losing value when it should be protected. Some people are always on the wrong side of the trade.

Whatever the case, this move higher is too much too fast and this is a text book sell the news event.

Interesting comment. We are starting to see more red creeping up (e.g. ZM down 5% right now). Not sure what's driving this move by the way. Could that be the Pfizer vaccine (90% effective), meaning less people will work remotely in the future?

[chadwick4eva]

Originally Posted by trippinjimmy

Just saw this - guess we're thinking the same! And I'm a long term invester... but this action makes me nervous, and I'd rather quit while I'm ahead for the time being!

I was down 20% about 9 days ago, was about +2% from pre-correction level at Friday's close. I'd imagine I'll be up another 2-3% today upon opening. I just don't see the upside at this point with winter coming and lockdowns starting.

I'm extremely aggressive, but this just makes me nervous.

That's some serious volatility. You may want to reconsider your weightings or strategy if you're bouncing around that much.

Seems like it will be a crazy week- lots of dry powder that was waiting in the wings for a catalytic event hitting the markets. DAL is up 20% premarket!

Watching to see what happens with treasuries and corporate bonds today. To me, a big selloff in the credit market would signal that we are indeed again at the beginning of a new market cycle and large bull run.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Xelorpepsi

Interesting comment. We are starting to see more red creeping up (e.g. ZM down 5% right now). Not sure what's driving this move by the way. Could that be the Pfizer vaccine (90% effective), meaning less people will work remotely in the future?

Just my opinion, the work-from-home stocks have always traded on hype more than facts. Consider that perhaps ZM should be trading 5% lower and not because of any news this morning?

There will always be the need for remote work and communication, this potential vaccine wont fix the pandemic overnight so the stock may continue to work. But it has run far ahead of itself just like many tech and cloud plays.

[JParm]

When have we see this before...

This might be the 4th or 5th time where we've seen cyclicals / value stocks trade much higher on good vaccine news, with large rotation away from tech.

In my opinion, for this to be a healthy market we need all indices inching higher together - not large swings in one sector as money is pulled from another (look at airlines, hotels, etc today - does that seem like a healthy move?).

As a long-term investor, I'm not making any knee-jerk moves here.

[kearez]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

When have we see this before...

This might be the 4th or 5th time where we've seen cyclicals / value stocks trade much higher on good vaccine news, with large rotation away from tech.

In my opinion, for this to be a healthy market we need all indices inching higher together - not large swings in one sector as money is pulled from another (look at airlines, hotels, etc today - does that seem like a healthy move?).

As a long-term investor, I'm not making any knee-jerk moves here.

Agree with you JP. I’ve been adding to my portfolio some of these names which are out of favour last few months, SBUX, DIS etc. Nice to see a nice little jump with them.

[avidflyer]

Perfect example, airline stocks up 20 percent....next headline after the vaccine news is how bad its getting that could result into isolated semi lock downs..... nothing has changed. Six months to a year sure. Nothing wrong with profit taking on a day like this

[Xelorpepsi]

Agree with you all. I was a bit surprised at first as I am overexposed to Tech, but when I looked at the broader market realised it was a just shift from Tech to value stocks.

[trippinjimmy]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

That's some serious volatility. You may want to reconsider your weightings or strategy if you're bouncing around that much.

Seems like it will be a crazy week- lots of dry powder that was waiting in the wings for a catalytic event hitting the markets. DAL is up 20% premarket!

Watching to see what happens with treasuries and corporate bonds today. To me, a big selloff in the credit market would signal that we are indeed again at the beginning of a new market cycle and large bull run.

I’ll play the volatility game for growth. I’m 20-30 years from retirement and can stomach the swings.

Full disclosure, a house just popped up on the market, so I’m considering selling now to raise down payment cash not because I think we won’t be higher a year from now. I do think we’re approaching a short term top soon and want to get out ahead rather than try to time this.

I see 20-30% upside longer term (18 months).


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by austinp

Retirement question.
Once you reach your retirement goal but aren’t quite ready to retire, what type of investment should your money be in? Super conservative? Or leave some in growth?


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Followup, this article just popped up on my Seeking Alpha

https://seekingalpha.com/article/438...t-implications

[logo]

Wow, some insane volatility today. Good discounts on a few names today, but not touching any of the cruise/airline/hotels etc. We've seen this overzealous response to vaccine news before in June and it didn't end well.

[jaisonline]

If Amazon dips below $3000, I’m buying more. Their business hasn’t changed much even with the J&J news. They proved their biz enough over the last 7 months.

[JParm]

+25% jumps on many cyclicals...I took profits Friday a bit too early on calls in WYNN, MAR, etc., but again - this is not a healthy market move IMO. Would not be chasing AT ALL.

I added to absurd dips in SE and U right around open - $10 in SE's price change already since I bought. Take advantage of the tech dips.

[beshannon]

Crazy day at the moment, Schwab is having website and logon issues

Market already backed off the opening high as I expected.

Crazy taking over 10 minutes for trade executions, I have trimmed MMM and CRM so far.

[logo]

Having a tough time interpreting next directions here. DOW and S&P above prior resistance, but with a downward gap to fill. Several tech names beaten down more than they should, while several big tech still pressing forward. Likewise, several cyclicals up more than they should. I’m thinking at least short term gap fill, then whether we head up or down I’m not sure. Any thoughts?

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

Having a tough time interpreting next directions here. DOW and S&P above prior resistance, but with a downward gap to fill. Several tech names beaten down more than they should, while several big tech still pressing forward. Likewise, several cyclicals up more than they should. I’m thinking at least short term gap fill, then whether we head up or down I’m not sure. Any thoughts?

We all thought we ran up too quickly last week - and then today happens, at least for value stocks...I still think you take profits if you're in those value names.

As for tech, I'm a buyer on these dips, always. Yes, we might be overextended, but I'm long-term and I'm building shares for the future - again, 12-18 months out, I most of us will agree that we'll be higher.

I'm not a chartmaster but when you see where a lot of these tech names were at open, it was clearly overzealous movement in my opinion in terms of the selling this morning. We seem to have stabilized now, so you have to take advantage of those gut feelings sometimes and buy.

[Hard_Six]

I've benefitted from some incredible run-ups over the last several months. A big thanks to many of you guys on here! Never would've come across a lot of these names had I not been looking at this forum. I'm (happily) trimming back today and taking some profits.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by logo

Having a tough time interpreting next directions here. DOW and S&P above prior resistance, but with a downward gap to fill. Several tech names beaten down more than they should, while several big tech still pressing forward. Likewise, several cyclicals up more than they should. I’m thinking at least short term gap fill, then whether we head up or down I’m not sure. Any thoughts?

Simply put, I am not sure what new information could keep this market moving higher.

Much is priced in and this looks like a rush in to avoid being left behind without considering where we are. Will we be higher this time next year? I think yes. In the short term? No.