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Old 30 March 2020, 07:45 PM   #61
jedly1
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For large sections of the world , and probably soon very much more , it’s impossible to trade full stop ... borders are closed , travel
Is barred , flights are cancelled ... couriers have been released to leave parcels without signing so insurance is invalidated ..... other than a local f2f sales are pretty much impossible .... big on hold button had been Pushed and is time to worry about Much more important things ....both here and uk have been warned that in the real world we need to expect these restrictions to last most likely for 6 months ..
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Old 30 March 2020, 09:31 PM   #62
L.K Johnson
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Chrono24 might be bias in regards to this matter, but here is their analysis published on Friday:

https://www.watchpro.com/the-big-int...-online-sales/
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Old 1 April 2020, 03:25 PM   #63
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Iíve said this on a few threads and fora. The level of wealth globally now, even after the equities markets have taken a noticeable tumble, still dwarfs what life was like back in 2008-2009. Not that being a billionaire is insignificant now, but the number of them (and the level the top 100 have risen to) now is markedly different than the last downturn. Check out the 2009 Forbes billionaire list, which had Bill Gates at the top slot with $40B when the list was published:

https://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/10...ires_Rank.html

Now compare to the real time (gotta love technology advances) Forbes billionaire list, where $40B would put you just outside of the Top 20:

https://www.forbes.com/real-time-bil.../#72a2ea533d78

This same dichotomy percolates down the range. A 6-figure USD salary for newly minted college grads in many STEM fields has been pretty much a de facto standard for a number of years till now, whereas it was much more hit and miss 12 years ago. In the major metros, there are still plenty of folks who are still comfortably well off even as their stock portfolios and 401Ks took a significant hit.

Many of us lived thru the Great Recession and the following Great Recovery. If youíre a believer that history often repeats itself when it comes to cataclysmic economic downturns, you canít at the same time poo poo the idea that a recovery thereafter has a decent chance of being repeated to some noticeable extent.

There are far more collectors of vintage now than there were in 2007. A good number of those collectors didnít overextend themselves to acquire the pieces that they did. Any vintage dealer that has been in the game for a decade or more has likely done pretty well for him or herself in that time (short of any ďlife leak vicesĒ).

Where this long-winded take from me is concluding is that while there will be some softening of prices and the occasional fire sale by a collector or dealer, the doom and gloom that affected a lot of folks during the Great Recession wonít be as prevalent this time around IMO.

Weíll see in due time how cold or hot this take of mine will be. In the meanwhile, everyone please be safe out there!
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Old 4 April 2020, 12:36 PM   #64
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I donít think prices will be immune to the economic slowdown, but I doubt we will see a drastic fall in quality pieces. The vintage market was already starting to bifurcate with mediocre pieces being sold at significant discounts or not at all when compared to collector quality pieces.

My own opinion is that youíll continue to find a weakening market for mediocre pieces, while prices for high quality pieces stagnant as the opportunity cost of a dollar becomes higher (eg better potential returns in the equity market).

I also think that you may not even see these collector pieces hit the secondary market since theyíll be traded among collectors outside of the forums/auctions/online sales platforms. The thought process is that when you have a $50/80/100k watch youíre trying to sell, counter-party risk is your biggest concern. Auctions generally help you avoid this exposure by charging you a fee. However, I feel the watch community is getting more and more connected, and itís now easier to meet another trusted collector/buyer through meet ups, private dealers, etc.
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Old 5 April 2020, 02:37 AM   #65
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Where this long-winded take from me is concluding is that while there will be some softening of prices and the occasional fire sale by a collector or dealer, the doom and gloom that affected a lot of folks during the Great Recession won’t be as prevalent this time around IMO.

Are you talking about 2008 or 1929, I cant tell............either way there is a possibility of an economic down turn the like of which none of us, nor our grandparents, have ever seen before..........so be ready to buckle up. I don't do predictions - hence the use of the word 'possibility'........but we cannot continue these conversations as if a massive economic disruption won't affect us. It will.........its just the extent or severity that is unknown.
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Old 5 April 2020, 03:06 AM   #66
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Nobody has a crystal ball, but personally I think that many people are being too optimistic in thinking that life (and the economy) will just return to normal once this first outbreak passes. We are going to see massive levels of unemployment, and that won't turn around on a dime. Moreover, there's a reasonable chance that we may see another outbreak in the Fall, before the economy has even had a chance to recover, and possibly another one in Fall 2021 before we have a viable vaccine. Unfortunately, I'm bracing for sustained pain around the world, and we may need to accustom ourselves to a "new normal". We would all be wise to prepare as best we can, and if things turn out to be better than expected ... great.

Watch prices are the least of my concerns, but I certainly don't think they will be immune from the pain. If I were a dealer with a large inventory, I would definitely be thinking about getting some of them sold to reduce my exposure, and in fact I'm already seeing some prices dropping a bit.
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Old 5 April 2020, 05:34 AM   #67
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Nobody has a crystal ball, but personally I think that many people are being too optimistic in thinking that life (and the economy) will just return to normal once this first outbreak passes. We are going to see massive levels of unemployment, and that won't turn around on a dime. Moreover, there's a reasonable chance that we may see another outbreak in the Fall, before the economy has even had a chance to recover, and possibly another one in Fall 2021 before we have a viable vaccine. Unfortunately, I'm bracing for sustained pain around the world, and we may need to accustom ourselves to a "new normal". We would all be wise to prepare as best we can, and if things turn out to be better than expected ... great.

Watch prices are the least of my concerns, but I certainly don't think they will be immune from the pain. If I were a dealer with a large inventory, I would definitely be thinking about getting some of them sold to reduce my exposure, and in fact I'm already seeing some prices dropping a bit.
I am fully optimistic that our medical and research community will have this virus fully under control by the fall. Why everyone worries so much about the value of their watches is beyond my pay grade to figure out. Maybe it is just a Rolex Forum phenomenon - whether talking new watches or vintage.
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Old 5 April 2020, 05:45 AM   #68
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I am fully optimistic that our medical and research community will have this virus fully under control by the fall. Why everyone worries so much about the value of their watches is beyond my pay grade to figure out. Maybe it is just a Rolex Forum phenomenon - whether talking new watches or vintage.

Hoping youíre right bro on fall timing.


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Old 5 April 2020, 06:10 AM   #69
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Are you talking about 2008 or 1929, I cant tell............either way there is a possibility of an economic down turn the like of which none of us, nor our grandparents, have ever seen before..........so be ready to buckle up. I don't do predictions - hence the use of the word 'possibility'........but we cannot continue these conversations as if a massive economic disruption won't affect us. It will.........its just the extent or severity that is unknown.
2008ís downturn has been termed the Great Recession.

1929ís downturn was the Great Depression.

We havenít yet seen back to back downturns that have been this historic in nature. Weíll see if this next one approaches the depths of the Great Recession........
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Gone.....never forgotten: 14000 F, 14060 V COSC, PAM 048, 16623 F, 1680 MK V 3.1M, 16800 matte 8.3M & 1655 MK IV 7.4M
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Old 5 April 2020, 07:38 AM   #70
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I am fully optimistic that our medical and research community will have this virus fully under control by the fall. Why everyone worries so much about the value of their watches is beyond my pay grade to figure out. Maybe it is just a Rolex Forum phenomenon - whether talking new watches or vintage.
As a member of the research community, I'm not so optimistic. We will have good testing in place, and probably treatments, but a vaccine is much further off I'm afraid. And IMO the virus will not be under control until we have a vaccine.

As I mentioned in my post, watch prices are the least of my concerns, so it's odd to quote my post and then say "Why everyone worries so much about the value of their watches ..." Sorry if I'm being sensitive, but I don't like being characterized that way, because it's not true in my case. I'm not concerned about the value of my watches, but I am legitimately concerned about other things, like whether my 86 year old mother will survive living in a COVID-19 hot-spot and if I'll be able to pay the people who work for me.
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Old 5 April 2020, 09:39 AM   #71
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Agreed.
are you even being serious now..
well we watch and how the market value goes.
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Old 5 April 2020, 12:48 PM   #72
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As a member of the research community, I'm not so optimistic. We will have good testing in place, and probably treatments, but a vaccine is much further off I'm afraid. And IMO the virus will not be under control until we have a vaccine.

As I mentioned in my post, watch prices are the least of my concerns, so it's odd to quote my post and then say "Why everyone worries so much about the value of their watches ..." Sorry if I'm being sensitive, but I don't like being characterized that way, because it's not true in my case. I'm not concerned about the value of my watches, but I am legitimately concerned about other things, like whether my 86 year old mother will survive living in a COVID-19 hot-spot and if I'll be able to pay the people who work for me.
You did state, "If I were a dealer with a large inventory, I would definitely be thinking about getting some of them sold to reduce my exposure, and in fact I'm already seeing some prices dropping a bit" This thread is about vintage pricing and lowered prices being seen in the market.

This seems to me you were giving advice concerning market corrections which normally means downward trends and watch valuations. Sorry you're offended about my watch comments if they were misconstrued - I did write "everyone" in that one sentence and not "you." Maybe next time I should be more specific and write "a select few" instead of everyone.
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Old 5 April 2020, 06:36 PM   #73
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For large sections of the world , and probably soon very much more , itís impossible to trade full stop ... borders are closed , travel
Is barred , flights are cancelled ... couriers have been released to leave parcels without signing so insurance is invalidated ..... other than a local f2f sales are pretty much impossible .... big on hold button had been Pushed and is time to worry about Much more important things ....both here and uk have been warned that in the real world we need to expect these restrictions to last most likely for 6 months ..
Spot on Jed,we also have to remember that now the watches pale into insignificance when you look around at the devastation and heartbreak this virus is causing. Stay safe. The same goes for every one of you out there reading this.
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