Talking Stocks 2.0

[superdog]

Up 38% on grwg in just a few days.

That’s how you know something is still wrong.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah but inflation is a very lagging indicator in terms of company profits. we will see big tech have reduced earnings due to full effects of inflation for q3/4 but at the same time inflation should be much reduced when those earnings reports come out since they're 3 months behind. this is assuming it continues coming down though

I can't think of anything that's going to bring inflation down noticeably any time soon.

Look at the late '70s and early '80s (the last time we had inflation this high). Back then, the Fed was making big, regular increases to the funds rate (much bigger than the small moves happening right now), and it still took a long time to get inflation under control.

[superdog]

just had a long conversation with a car broker. he is getting out the business. we got to talking about views on the economy in general.

his thoughts are that by xmas things will be fubar.

results of inflation will be felt in Q3 and Q4 reporting. High consumer credit card debt, and inept constantly fighting government (both sides, please leave it at that) and simply an inability to get the national debt under control will spiral and cause a real reason for a big drop.

I tend to agree. the fact that everything has jumped the way it has the last few weeks, with no real reason, to me, is an indicator that things are still way out of wack.

I also see way less people spending right now. Cars, watches and other unnecessary items are simply not moving. why? super high pricing and already high credit card debt. combine that with the current and future layoffs and we have a real recipe for disaster.

things will get better before they get worse. 3000 S&P, I am not so sure. But I am not optimistic on the future.

I see tons are articles claiming the bear market is over. I simply do not think so.

[BNA/LION]

Received this from our Financial Advisor's June 30th and it has some interesting information that I thought I'd pass along to this group.

The 2022 Midyear Outlook

After a volatile first half of the year marked by surging inflation and uncertain economic conditions, what’s in store for interest rates, the Fed, and financial markets?
Janet Engels, Head of the Portfolio Advisory Group – U.S., Tom Garretson, Fixed Income Senior Portfolio Strategist, and Tylar Lunke, Senior Manager of the Managed Portfolio Strategies team, share highlights from the Midyear Outlook and discuss what to expect from the rest of 2022.

Listen here(approximately 14-minute duration).
https://rbcplayer.com/Global_Insight...outlook_063022

For more, please see the2022 Midyear Outlook.
https://www.rbcinsight.com/WM/Share/...A71A4A34F6950C

[austinp]

Nobody really knows what the future holds. Any predictions are just guesses.


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[superdog]

Originally Posted by austinp

Nobody really knows what the future holds. Any predictions are just guesses.


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Absolutely agree.

Wish I could internalize that.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by superdog

just had a long conversation with a car broker. he is getting out the business. we got to talking about views on the economy in general.

his thoughts are that by xmas things will be fubar.

results of inflation will be felt in Q3 and Q4 reporting. High consumer credit card debt, and inept constantly fighting government (both sides, please leave it at that) and simply an inability to get the national debt under control will spiral and cause a real reason for a big drop.

I tend to agree. the fact that everything has jumped the way it has the last few weeks, with no real reason, to me, is an indicator that things are still way out of wack.

I also see way less people spending right now. Cars, watches and other unnecessary items are simply not moving. why? super high pricing and already high credit card debt. combine that with the current and future layoffs and we have a real recipe for disaster.

things will get better before they get worse. 3000 S&P, I am not so sure. But I am not optimistic on the future.

I see tons are articles claiming the bear market is over. I simply do not think so.

It seems super weird that a car broker would be concerned about macros such as national debt. At a nuts and bolts level (because you used the be in the biz directly or indirectly right?) are these guys just holding too much inventory they overpaid for or what do you think is the real story here?

[superdog]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

It seems super weird that a car broker would be concerned about macros such as national debt. At a nuts and bolts level (because you used the be in the biz directly or indirectly right?) are these guys just holding too much inventory they overpaid for or what do you think is the real story here?

no sir. what he does is find and buy cars for people. he also facilitates leases etc. because he has so much more buying power, he gets better deals and passes them along with a vig.

in todays world, he says everyone is simply complaining that all costs are too high, and no one is buying. he has completely dried up.

the conversation, and my retelling, includes much of my own concerns as to where the economy is heading and what is currently happening.

but he wants out because he is busting his ass, but no one is buying.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by superdog

no sir. what he does is find and buy cars for people. he also facilitates leases etc. because he has so much more buying power, he gets better deals and passes them along with a vig.

in todays world, he says everyone is simply complaining that all costs are too high, and no one is buying. he has completely dried up.

the conversation, and my retelling, includes much of my own concerns as to where the economy is heading and what is currently happening.

but he wants out because he is busting his ass, but no one is buying.

Out of genuine curiosity (because this is what I try to wrap my mind around)...I hear and read other stories like the one you recounted and therefore believe them to be true. At the same time, it seems like Tesla is still selling at a good clip through backlog M3 orders, and Ford is still selling through F150 backlog pretty quickly. Plus ford just announced that price hike.

So I have a hard time discerning how much is weaker economy (where there is clearly some of that compared to height of stimmie money) and strong market players getting even more market share.

In the mean time, seems like the equity bros still out partying and the bond traders have gotten back to sober Thursday morning work.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Out of genuine curiosity (because this is what I try to wrap my mind around)...I hear and read other stories like the one you recounted and therefore believe them to be true. At the same time, it seems like Tesla is still selling at a good clip through backlog M3 orders, and Ford is still selling through F150 backlog pretty quickly. Plus ford just announced that price hike.

So I have a hard time discerning how much is weaker economy (where there is clearly some of that compared to height of stimmie money) and strong market players getting even more market share.

In the mean time, seems like the equity bros still out partying and the bond traders have gotten back to sober Thursday morning work.

the guy was ultimately asking me to explore the idea of him coming to work for me.

and tbh, I like him very much. however, I can recall when I requested he look into ordering a jeep for me. two times...neither time he got back to me....

sooooooo, his experience might very well be skewed by his own actions or lack there of. but, from what I have been told by others, he was very good at what he did. I can certainly recall a time when he was super busy.

that said, I just bought 4 vehicles from Ford. All 4 had a mark up. I got three with no mark up and one with a very reduced mark up. I am not certain cars are moving as fast as they were.

BUT, I have just had one of my worst months in years. And this month does not appear better, so far.

I talk to my colleagues all the time. And literally every one is also telling me they are slow.

[BNA/LION]

Originally Posted by austinp

Nobody really knows what the future holds. Any predictions are just guesses.

I agree However, there are money managers in wealth management who are very good at making proper adjustments to portfolios as market conditions change. They can help you increase your wealth while limiting your downside risk. There is a difference from thinking you know the furure and making guesses or predictions or using statistics, data, forecasting models, fundamentals, and having a Long-Term Investment Plan to maintain and grow your wealth.

Our money managers have done a great job for us, and we will be sticking to our plan.

Best of Luck to Everyone!

[huncho]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Out of genuine curiosity (because this is what I try to wrap my mind around)...I hear and read other stories like the one you recounted and therefore believe them to be true. At the same time, it seems like Tesla is still selling at a good clip through backlog M3 orders, and Ford is still selling through F150 backlog pretty quickly. Plus ford just announced that price hike.

So I have a hard time discerning how much is weaker economy (where there is clearly some of that compared to height of stimmie money) and strong market players getting even more market share.

In the mean time, seems like the equity bros still out partying and the bond traders have gotten back to sober Thursday morning work.

it's definitely a weird feeling currently. all the markets are broken, tons of stocks were down 80%+ but then you have apple single digit %'s from the highs. it's like a mix of the dotcom bubble/2008 stock market and a normal correction, depending on what you're looking at. the crypto market was fully capitulated in june and i know a bunch of people who got blown up from stocks (anyone not in SPY or select blue chips lol). at the same time, consumer spending isn't necessarily going down much yet, but likely because everyone is swiping but that remains to be seen, and the job market is still in good shape. overall it feels like the economy is still fairly healthy although going through a bit of a drawdown. i think we'll really have a better understanding by the start of the new year since a lot of indicators are lagging

i feel like for < 3000 to happen we would need something similar to 2008 where something in the financial system actually breaks

[huncho]

we've now rallied more from june 17 to today (+22.5% nasdaq) than may 2021 - sept 2021 (+21% nasdaq). s&p has gone +17% in these 2 months vs +13% in may-sept of last year

pretty crazy to think about but at the same time every big move up was violently sold off before resuming. how far do we go? i imagine 4300 will be a giant wall

saw people calling for apple to head to double digits in june which in hindsight was the biggest bottom signal lol

[enjoythemusic]

[StackLexus17]

We’re entering a massive risk period right now.


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[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by huncho

we've now rallied more from june 17 to today (+22.5% nasdaq) than may 2021 - sept 2021 (+21% nasdaq). s&p has gone +17% in these 2 months vs +13% in may-sept of last year

pretty crazy to think about but at the same time every big move up was violently sold off before resuming. how far do we go? i imagine 4300 will be a giant wall

saw people calling for apple to head to double digits in june which in hindsight was the biggest bottom signal lol

Analysts were saying a 10-12% bear market run up was definitely possible given the oversold nature back in June. It's impossible to know if it's going to go back down or plateau here but I'm finding it hard to believe it can go higher given talk is whether the Fed is going to raise .75 or .5. We're not even at the point of a .25% let alone pause or easing.

Apple in double digits would have been an amazing buying opportunity!

[SpectralDodo49]

Some of you may remember when, in the late 80's early 90's, the DOW WAS AT 3000 OR 4000 (I forget the actual timeframe) and big investor Jeremy Siegal predicted DOW 20K (I think it was the cover of Money magazine) and he was virtually laughed out of town.

Conventional financial experts said that DOW 20K was not possible given the underlying structure of capital markets. So, maybe those experts regret not investing more into stocks back then.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by SpectralDodo49

Some of you may remember when, in the late 80's early 90's, the DOW WAS AT 3000 OR 4000 (I forget the actual timeframe) and big investor Jeremy Siegal predicted DOW 20K (I think it was the cover of Money magazine) and he was virtually laughed out of town.

Conventional financial experts said that DOW 20K was not possible given the underlying structure of capital markets. So, maybe those experts regret not investing more into stocks back then.

We started with mutual funds and a few stocks in 1987. Added more at the ‘87 crash. Forget timing. It was our time in the market. Our investments went up alot.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by SpectralDodo49

Some of you may remember when, in the late 80's early 90's, the DOW WAS AT 3000 OR 4000 (I forget the actual timeframe) and big investor Jeremy Siegal predicted DOW 20K (I think it was the cover of Money magazine) and he was virtually laughed out of town.

Conventional financial experts said that DOW 20K was not possible given the underlying structure of capital markets. So, maybe those experts regret not investing more into stocks back then.

well i don't think it was unreasonable to think 20k was impossible back then. there wasn't nearly as much money and disposable income as there is today and the internet wasn't a thing yet so the market was a niche. you got people trading on their phones in the bathroom now and not to mention who would've thought there would be companies like apple, amazon and microsoft making this much money. also the emergence of white collar office jobs that are just passively investing billions into etfs through 401ks

the 80s look like a completely different world compared to today and it feels like the market is largely based on speculation today

[Baco Noir]

Originally Posted by BNA/LION

I agree However, there are money managers in wealth management who are very good at making proper adjustments to portfolios as market conditions change. They can help you increase your wealth while limiting your downside risk. There is a difference from thinking you know the furure and making guesses or predictions or using statistics, data, forecasting models, fundamentals, and having a Long-Term Investment Plan to maintain and grow your wealth.

Our money managers have done a great job for us, and we will be sticking to our plan.

Best of Luck to Everyone!

Us too. Fidelity’s Portfolio Advisory Services has done a good job adjusting the investment mix in our portfolio during this downturn. I went to a lower risk tolerance score about 6 months before I retired and that seems to have helped too. My investments outside of the retirement accounts have lost about 2x as much as the managed portfolio.

[beshannon]

Getting above the 200-day line would be evidence that the current uptrend is more than a substantial bear market rally. A pause or pullback wouldn't be a surprise after a strong advance for the major indexes, largely on lackluster volume. Friday's bounce came on very light volume.

A pause or modest pullback over several days or a few weeks could be constructive, but the market is going to do what it's going to do.

https://www.investors.com/market-tre...ar-buy-points/

I have been buying since late June, the economy is fine and very strong, the unemployment rate is historically low, wages are up. Spending is going to continue.

I am watching several equities that I have not already added including ABBV, MS, XOM, MMM, MO, APPL and MSFT

[austinp]

I started buying early July as well averaging down to build larger positions in some companies that I already have. I don’t often buy stocks to trade but I did buy some CCL just because it seemed cheap. I pulled half my initial investment when it reached a 25% gain.

AAPL represents about 10% of my non retirement account. I haven’t bought new shares in over 10 years but it’s done so well it’s reached a large % of the whole. I read that it isn’t good to have such a high % in any one stock but I can’t get myself to sell. What do you guys do in that situation?


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[m j b]

Originally Posted by austinp

What do you guys do in that situation?

Me, I sell half of the position.

Of course, it's rare that I make a good enough return to do that...

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by austinp

AAPL represents about 10% of my non retirement account. I haven’t bought new shares in over 10 years but it’s done so well it’s reached a large % of the whole. I read that it isn’t good to have such a high % in any one stock but I can’t get myself to sell. What do you guys do in that situation?


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There is a difference between selling and rebalancing. If you are selling to take a loss, book a gain or free up capital that is fine. If you are selling because the position has become too large, that is simply prudent risk management.

Never fall in love with a stock. Consider where you might deploy that capital into other solid choices. In addition we may see some pullback toward the end of the month as people lock in gains.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

Me, I sell half of the position.

Of course, it's rare that I make a good enough return to do that...

If I am working a trade, I do the same thing and let the profit stay in the position and I reinvest the original capital.

If it is a core holding I will hold onto the position especially if the dividend is strong until it become to outsized for my portfolio. Then I will sell to get the position back in line. If you choose not to buy something else you can always wait in cash and then dollar cost average down if possible. That should reduce the total portfolio exposure for a short time.

[austinp]

Originally Posted by beshannon

There is a difference between selling and rebalancing. If you are selling to take a loss, book a gain or free up capital that is fine. If you are selling because the position has become too large, that is simply prudent risk management.

Never fall in love with a stock. Consider where you might deploy that capital into other solid choices.

Thanks B. I know I should and will do it but man it’s hard for me. All my new money goes in other names to try to reduce the Apple % but it just keeps moving higher.


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by austinp

Thanks B. I know I should and will do it but man it’s hard for me. All my new money goes in other names to try to reduce the Apple % but it just keeps moving higher.


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I have significant position(s) in AAPL as well. At less than $10 from a new 52 week high, I could feel very comfortable here taking some profits off the table, if only to buy back at a later date.

[scarlet knight]

I would be hard pressed to sell Apple stock unless the story changes. But if someone has more than 10% of their portfolio in one stock, that is risky.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by beshannon

There is a difference between selling and rebalancing. If you are selling to take a loss, book a gain or free up capital that is fine. If you are selling because the position has become too large, that is simply prudent risk management.

Never fall in love with a stock. Consider where you might deploy that capital into other solid choices. In addition we may see some pullback toward the end of the month as people lock in gains.

Well said.

[Fleetlord]

There is literally too much money still "out there" from various sources for alotta people to stop spending (which is boring). People don't want boring.

Malls (yes Malls), restaurants, travel destinations...all still packed from my anecdotal perspective. They simply aren't participating in a "down" economy...maybe they didn't get the memo that times are tough or they are simply ignoring it until their reality changes due to layoffs..etc.