June 2023 - Where's the Market at on 114300 White Dial? And Consideration of 124300

[puma1552]

So, I am a prospective first time buyer of a Rolex looking to retire my current watch (non-Rolex cheap $1200 quartz) that I've worn daily for 17 years. I just want a simple, clean watch, which points me to an Oyster Perpetual. I don't want to flip, this is something I would hand down to my newborn son in a few decades. I was not into Rolex until sometime in 2020, when I developed a casual/passing interest but had other financial priorities to be serious.

As I started looking into Rolex, it occurred to me that the white dial OP 39 from a few years ago is probably my grail watch. It's everything I would want in a watch, so it's disappointing I missed out and my only real option now is likely a gray market dealer.

1) What is the consensus on where the market is at for these today in terms of actual transaction prices through reputable grays for unworn or excellent/no wear examples? Inflation is bad, interest rates are rising, etc., but I recently saw one north of $12k at DavidSW, and I've seen two examples posted here in the last few days for around $10k. Is $10k where the market is, or is that way overpriced?

In a perfect world, I'd actually end up with two of these - one white, one black, and be set for life. I know the black one is a little cheaper, but my sights are currently set on white since the watch I've been wearing the last 17 years is black.

2) Alternatively, I've thought about going to the AD to inquire about a black OP 41 (current model, 124300 IIRC). Probably a wait list and a phone call that may never come, but if the call did come it would be a deal at retail for a better movement, brand new, direct from an AD without any lingering doubts about authenticity (sorry but I'll always have that tiny doubt going through anywhere but an AD). Perhaps it's better to just move on and go with new? Note I don't think I like the silver version though with the yellow gold, so acquiring both a black and silver and being set for life as in the OP 39 example above would likely never happen. I have read the anecdotes about Rolex supposedly wanting ADs to hold supply back for first time customers who don't flip, so I guess if this is true there's actually maybe a chance there's one in the back for me or could be procured shortly. I do have concerns about size on my 6.75" wrist, so would like to see an OP 41 and OP 36 in person back to back but that may not be possible either given current state of supply. Note I would not go gray for this model, I would only get it at retail, new from the AD, and if that's not possible, it's no loss since it's not the grail version for me.

3) So, given #1 and #2 above, where do we feel the market is at on the white dial OP 39 today, and would you pay whatever that current market value is or just go with a new black OP 41/36?