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Old 18 March 2020, 10:07 AM   #1
joespeed29
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Recession buys?

With an almost certain recession coming (in the US) has anyone had success historically getting any deals on timepieces?

have had my eye on a few PAMs and wondering if opportunities may present themselves?
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Old 18 March 2020, 10:20 AM   #2
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Old 18 March 2020, 10:26 AM   #3
joespeed29
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Sorry mate!

Not trying to pick anyones corpse clean, i spend a lot of time watching the markets and looking for opportunities .. figured its worth a shot..


So, you got any good stories?
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Old 18 March 2020, 10:46 AM   #4
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I think there will definitely be a noticeable change — you definitely aren’t alone preparing for “Corona Pricing”.


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Old 18 March 2020, 11:42 AM   #5
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Many will remember that the vintage and second hand market was quite good for a small window of time back in late ‘08 early ‘09.


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Old 18 March 2020, 11:48 AM   #6
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For new models. Given that Rolex has shut down its factory, we are probably not going to see a big drop.

Rolex prices are also a lagging indicator, so it will be a while before we see the Corona effect

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Old 18 March 2020, 09:54 PM   #7
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I do not think we will see real reductions in price that warrant significant consideration for some time. Most grey dealers purchased the pieces they currently possess at prices commensurate with a strong market. They aren't going to suddenly slash prices unless things become desperate. I think that is still theoretically, awhile off.

One could also argue if manufacturers, like Rolex, are closing down production for awhile whatever is out there will become more valuable. I've been collecting for 10+ years now (which is not nearly as long as some), but is still long enough to recall the market for Rolex, AP, PP prior to the "shortages" we are seeing now. The only models I have really seen drastic changes in price are stainless steel Rolex (across the board), AP Royal Oaks at 41mm in steel, and PP Nautilus/Aquanaut models in steel. Have other models gone up or down in price? Certainly. These, however, are the most significant and drastic changes I have observed. Panerai, IWC, Omega, Breitling, really hasn't changed all that much on the secondary market. For example, a used PAM 233 has been 7-8k for years now. An Omega Speedmaster pro has been ~3k for the same time. But I do remember when you could get a used Rolex 114060 for just over 6k.
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Old 19 March 2020, 02:33 PM   #8
joespeed29
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Originally Posted by ricardo-sf View Post
For new models. Given that Rolex has shut down its factory, we are probably not going to see a big drop.

Rolex prices are also a lagging indicator, so it will be a while before we see the Corona effect

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Wow I just read this also!


In particular looking at a 441 or a 24 submersible.


Thanks for all the replies. I'll def keep looking.


It is really unfortunate that things are gonna get worse here and who knows how bad it's gonna get.....


Luck favors the prepared
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Old 20 March 2020, 11:07 AM   #9
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...Most grey dealers purchased the pieces they currently possess at prices commensurate with a strong market. They aren't going to suddenly slash prices unless things become desperate...
If there's a bear market then grey dealers might be motivated to do deals to keep cash flowing, and I believe this could work in the buyer's favor, especially when trading up.
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Old 21 March 2020, 04:14 PM   #10
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Sadly, if we're just being honest — we will definitely see deals. It's inevitable. 20% of the population filed for unemployment. And we're one week into this lockdown. Imagine in one month.

Entire industries are crumbling. Airlines. Gaming. Food and beverage. Small business. Hospitality. And the bleeding will get way worse.

Expect to see a massive bubble pop on 10 - 25K sport watches IMHO.
Especially brands without true panache or proprietary movements like Hublot, Tag Heuer, IWC, etc.

Truly empathize with anyone put out by this thing. It's still unfathomable what's happening.
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Old 21 March 2020, 05:07 PM   #11
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People saying no drop in price -would you buy 50 blros at 130 percent RRP right now to hold flip and sell?

I wouldn't.
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Old 21 March 2020, 08:49 PM   #12
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Panic selling has already started whether you like it or not... Now don't start hammering me... It's a fact and is going to get worse
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Old 21 March 2020, 10:07 PM   #13
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Many people are poor with money management skills. They leverage themselves and one strong argument used frequently on this forum is that Rolex is easily converted to cash. 2 plus 2 = lower pricing moving forward, at least on the secondary market.
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Old 21 March 2020, 11:35 PM   #14
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I guess you are right..

I should look at it this way.. at this point of someone offered be a blro at MSRP , I'm not a buyer anymore.

I bet tons of people feel that way

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Old 27 March 2020, 02:04 PM   #15
joespeed29
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it is quite shocking not just how many people but small businesses are living paycheck to paycheck.. man this country is in shambles.. scary times.
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Old 27 March 2020, 02:48 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by joespeed29 View Post
it is quite shocking not just how many people but small businesses are living paycheck to paycheck.. man this country is in shambles.. scary times.
And lose your job. Lose your healthcare. At a time people really need it. Sick won't go to the hospital for fear of bills. Leading to more transfers of the virus to others.

The perfect storm.
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Old 30 March 2020, 09:23 AM   #17
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Maybe another couple of months, too soon to tell now on the full impact of the virus.
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Old 31 March 2020, 12:27 PM   #18
Grumpy514
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Are we talking second hand or through an AD?

I bet some people are going to be hawking their time pieces here soon unfortunately :(. Sad. It will be a buyers market (2nd hand) is my guess.
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Old 1 April 2020, 09:36 AM   #19
joespeed29
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Are we talking second hand or through an AD?

I bet some people are going to be hawking their time pieces here soon unfortunately :(. Sad. It will be a buyers market (2nd hand) is my guess.


Talking grey's, at least the pieces I'm looking for..

Its getting really scary.. the amount of people not able to save an emergency fund and now rent is due tomorrow...

Wont be too bad, but come May 1, we'll really see some pain
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Old 3 April 2020, 05:16 AM   #20
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I was all set to pick up a 372, and the wife had new furniture decided upon.

A family member found out that Friday will be her last day at work and is furloughed until the crisis is over.

Our plans are off now - the help we can provide is way more important than another Panerai in the drawer.
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Old 4 April 2020, 10:08 AM   #21
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I am expecting not to buy anything now, but also not to sell. I think Asian market has cooled off, but dont expect any drastic changes for brands like Rolex, Patek or AP, especially since they cut down production.
BTW. just personal opinion.
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Old 4 April 2020, 10:42 AM   #22
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I was all set to pick up a 372, and the wife had new furniture decided upon.

A family member found out that Friday will be her last day at work and is furloughed until the crisis is over.

Our plans are off now - the help we can provide is way more important than another Panerai in the drawer.
Sorry to hear about your family member, but that’s great that you guys are prioritizing family in a time like this.
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Old 4 April 2020, 10:44 AM   #23
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I am expecting not to buy anything now, but also not to sell. I think Asian market has cooled off, but dont expect any drastic changes for brands like Rolex, Patek or AP, especially since they cut down production.
BTW. just personal opinion.
Agreed! In addition to this, the majority of people that are losing jobs due to COVID 19 were likely not in the market for a high end watch in the first place. Almost everyone I know with a white collar job is working from home, but still working, and most people in the medical field are in higher demand than ever.
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Old 11 April 2020, 04:51 AM   #24
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It's quite a sorry state of affairs. It's inevitable there will be a drop and we're only in the early stages. Those that have a disposable income will wait for the market to flatten even more and pick up bargains


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Old 25 May 2020, 11:08 PM   #25
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Interesting thread. It has been more than a month now since the last post....are you guys seeing any change since that time?
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Old 26 May 2020, 06:08 AM   #26
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Interesting thread. It has been more than a month now since the last post....are you guys seeing any change since that time?
There are some sporadic deals here and there...

But Panerai brand has already been in recession for quite some time, so there really isn't much further down to go!

Dealers haven't been actively...or more importantly OVER Buying to try make out on speculation like on the hawt brands...so if they have some PAMS, they will just sit on them until somebody wants one.
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Old 26 May 2020, 10:58 AM   #27
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Lysol, and other essential items I could find.

As far as timepieces, nothing I’m interested in.
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Old 26 May 2020, 11:06 AM   #28
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Sort of a related video from WB

https://youtu.be/LYtBAMs-6ms
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Old 26 May 2020, 02:06 PM   #29
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Sort of a related video from WB

https://youtu.be/LYtBAMs-6ms
Thanks for posting. That vid contradicts what I've observed on their site. I browse WB a few times a week and haven't seen much action coming/going.
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Old 26 May 2020, 04:11 PM   #30
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Thanks for posting. That vid contradicts what I've observed on their site. I browse WB a few times a week and haven't seen much action coming/going.
I know the owner and just bought a platinum Patek from him/them.... they are moving lots and lots of pieces, take it for what’s it’s worth, we aren’t best friends but I got a great deal and the 3 that were avail were gone in less than a week!
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