SS Sports Models Coming back to MSRP

[WatchNutcase]

Just a little prediction from me. I'm pretty sure we're going to be seeing all Rolex at MSRP in the coming 6 months. Literally everyone I know is in the process of loosing jobs, and those with businesses are reporting massive drops in income.

On top of that, I received a call from my AD a few days ago, frantically asking me if I was interested in buying 2 SS sports model that usually have significant wait times. His voice was stressed, and I have a feeling I wasn't the first call he made. Some people are turning down these watches now even at MSRP.

We're going through a pandemic here that hasn't even really began, and it has already halted the economy.

Once Rolex factories are back in full production most people will not be in the position to buy a Rolex, and I think we might see a flood of watches come through.

This is my opinion, what's yours?

[1665fan]

Lol daytona at retail....not April fools yet

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Lol daytona at retail....not April fools yet

If you bought a Daytona over retail, it's essentially like buying an overvalued stock right before a market crash. You better hold!

In all seriousness, this isn't an April fools joke, just take a look at whats happening in the world.

[Anton911]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

If you bought a Daytona over retail, it's essentially like buying an overvalued stock right before a market crash. You better hold!

In all seriousness, this isn't an April fools joke, just take a look at whats happening in the world.

Not going to happen.It is wishful thinking on your part if you think people are going to be able to pick up sought after SS pieces at knock down prices.
Nothing will change.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by Anton911

Not going to happen.It is wishful thinking on your part if you think people are going to be able to pick up sought after SS pieces at knock down prices.
Nothing will change.

I agree it is wishful thinking, but I also think it's an actual possibility once the majority of people start to grasp what is happening to the economy. The UK might be the last place to see such a change, but I think we would be more likely see it happen in less populous countries.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

I agree it is wishful thinking, but I also think it's an actual possibility once the majority of people start to grasp what is happening to the economy. The UK might be the last place to see such a change, but I think we would be more likely see it happen in less populous countries.

Maybe where you are, not around here

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

If you bought a Daytona over retail, it's essentially like buying an overvalued stock right before a market crash. You better hold!

In all seriousness, this isn't an April fools joke, just take a look at whats happening in the world.

One just sold on the forum discounted at 23k lol

[ndrs63]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

If you bought a Daytona over retail, it's essentially like buying an overvalued stock right before a market crash. You better hold!



In all seriousness, this isn't an April fools joke, just take a look at whats happening in the world.

I do not believe that you will be able to buy a Daytona at retail in 6 months


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

If you bought a Daytona over retail, it's essentially like buying an overvalued stock right before a market crash. You better hold!

In all seriousness, this isn't an April fools joke, just take a look at whats happening in the world.

I was told I could have any stainless model by summer time except Daytona. Still $100K barrier to entry as only 20 of each color came to this major Las Vegas dealer in 2019. Those 20 will find buyers and won't resale at msrp in my opinion.

[TankTom]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

If you bought a Daytona over retail, it's essentially like buying an overvalued stock right before a market crash. You better hold!

In all seriousness, this isn't an April fools joke, just take a look at whats happening in the world.

Wow. The reason people are blindly panicking is because of posts like this. Steel Daytona at retail? Don’t be silly. What were those ‘hot models’ you were offered?

[mjr24]

These watches are not coming back to MSRP.

Will the prices drop? Sure.

However, they will drop to a point that people will just need to have them. SS Daytona at $20k? No, thanks. However, SS Daytona at say....$15k? Everyone will buy them.

Hulk at $14k? No thanks. Hulk at $10,500? For sure.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by mjr24

These watches are not coming back to MSRP.

Will the prices drop? Sure.

However, they will drop to a point that people will just need to have them. SS Daytona at $20k? No, thanks. However, SS Daytona at say....$15k? Everyone will buy them.

Hulk at $14k? No thanks. Hulk at $10,500? For sure.

If the flippers are only making a couple hundred (leaving blue SkyD and Ceramic Daytona out of this) the desire to flip becomes no more and that entire spectrum is gone. Prices will plummet.

[yonexsp]

Originally Posted by TankTom

Wow. The reason people are blindly panicking is because of posts like this. Steel Daytona at retail? Don’t be silly. What were those ‘hot models’ you were offered?

They are not panicking

"Goldman Sachs now says US GDP will shrink 24% next quarter amid the coronavirus pandemic - which would be 2.5 times bigger than any decline in history"

This is as it says 2.5 worse than the great depression.

Wishful thinking is not going to stop the asteroid from smashing everything to smitereans. Luxury watches will be the last thing on peoples minds in 6 months.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by yonexsp

They are not panicking

"Goldman Sachs now says US GDP will shrink 24% next quarter amid the coronavirus pandemic - which would be 2.5 times bigger than any decline in history"

This is as it says 2.5 worse than the great depression.

Wishful thinking is not going to stop the asteroid from smashing everything to smitereans. Luxury watches will be the last thing on peoples minds in 6 months.

I find it interesting how some people are not grasping this. Perhaps it's just wishful thinking or they are in denial?

[inadeje]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

If you bought a Daytona over retail, it's essentially like buying an overvalued stock right before a market crash. You better hold!

In all seriousness, this isn't an April fools joke, just take a look at whats happening in the world.

Mat, despite the replies you’ve received you're spot on. This isn’t rocket science however. All non essential items lose traction during times of strife, and the very very first items to be crossed off the shopping list are luxury/status items. I would like to add to your post though (not thread hijacking ).

The very first watches to see serious market losses will be those affected by the rising tide lifts all boats phenomenon. Namely, 16710 GMT, Daytona (any), pre-maxi case subs, etc. The rationale behind my assumption is that these watches rose in price because the current variant was unobtainable. Even though Rolex cut supply through manufacturing closing, this takes time to filter down to the supply chain, which will still receive equal amounts of watches, I estimate for a good six months out. These watches will slowly become more difficult to move until we get to the point where those who couldn’t buy new will be able to and the previously forced purchase of a 5 digit will end. Maybe your original post didn’t focus upon the under-padding of the market (older pieces) which will be the first to fall away?

Great post and very timely Mat

[sallyhats]

Same hype pricing happened prior to 2008, wasn’t as extreme as 2018/2019, but people were buying just for flipping. Forward to 2012-2015, you were able to buy a BLNR in 2015 with a 10% discount. Same spectators who make no provisions for a downturn will disappear and people that were willing to buy hype pieces will turn around and say “its just not worth it right now.”

[TempoKing]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Lol daytona at retail....not April fools yet

Not at all ...the market is dead
...people are dying in high numbers every hour
All the sports models (hundreds of them) will come out of the safes
And will pretty much sell at retail or below
No room for speculation, black-marketeers games and or greed.
I say bye bye summer ....let’s talk about demand in 2021 again..hopefully

[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by TempoKing

...people are dying in high numbers every hour

What? This virus is still not killing many people globally, and certainly not on the hour. The numbers just aren't there. Now we need to minimize the spread for sure, but this is just objectively not true. All hope is not yet lost. 2020 is not yet lost. The truth is we just don't know what will happen going forward, but evidence suggest the virus can be mitigated going forward with compliance with distancing recommendations.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by johnorpheus

What? This virus is still not killing many people globally, and certainly not on the hour. The numbers just aren't there. Now we need to minimize the spread for sure, but this is just objectively not true. All hope is not yet lost. 2020 is not yet lost. The truth is we just don't know what will happen going forward, but evidence suggest the virus can be mitigated going forward with compliance with distancing recommendations.

Sorry to be off the watch topic, but what do you mean? The virus is killing thousands of people at an exponential rate. Have you not been following the stats?

The only evidence we have that this can be controlled is with the strict Chinese regime, but these measures cannot be replicated in the USA.

Sorry but it's frightening hearing this from someone in a country about to be severely hit by this virus. Please stay safe!

[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

Sorry to be off the watch topic, but what do you mean? The virus is killing thousands of people at an exponential rate. Have you not been following the stats?

The only evidence we have that this can be controlled is with the strict Chinese regime, but these measures cannot be replicated in the USA.

Sorry but it's frightening hearing this from someone in a country about to be severely hit by this virus. Please stay safe!

It's not. This is not accurate. Look, I'm staying inside and only going out to walk the the dog and hit the grocery store like everyone else, but your assertions aren't factual. It's killed roughly 15k GLOBALLY and far less in the U.S. If you have been following the news and stats, what the US is concerned about is overwhelming the hospital system with people exhibiting systems and taking away resources from people who truly need it. The massive death projections were based on no social distancing measures.

You can be safe and adhere to guidelines without losing your mind.

[daOnlyBG]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

The only evidence we have that this can be controlled is with the strict Chinese regime, but these measures cannot be replicated in the USA.

Oh, if you only knew.

The United States has been able to get away with a lot in the name of public health, for better or for worse (so far, it's been for the better). Though the government hasn't really flexed its legal muscle yet (most likely due to a polarized election year), it certainly has the ability to go harder on its people than it does now.

As for the original topic of this thread: in one of the closed dealer groups I lurk in, BLROs are in the $16K range, up $1K from before the lockdown.

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Lol daytona at retail....not April fools yet

Yea looks like I won that one lol

[CKizzy]

I hope your predictions come true...would love to buy at or below MSRP ;)

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by ckizzy

i hope your predictions come true...would love to buy at or below msrp ;)

x 2.

[lmcgbaj]

Originally Posted by CKizzy

I hope your predictions come true...would love to buy at or below MSRP ;)

Careful what you wish for. It comes with a package.

[Art 1]

Originally Posted by lmcgbaj

Careful what you wish for. It comes with a package.

Very true.

[garyk]

Market conditions will dictate, Ive never met someone who can accurately predict the outcome of anything and this time we are in uncharted waters. My guess, hold on, when this is all behind us, the market for things will go crazy!

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by garyk

Market conditions will dictate, Ive never met someone who can accurately predict the outcome of anything and this time we are in uncharted waters. My guess, hold on, when this is all behind us, the market for things will go crazy!

Exactly right

[Hollie_Rollie]

It’s about time

[RObinx]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

It’s about time

Corona's time